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D-1: Presidential Election

The last round of odds and ends before we head to the polls tomorrow:

  • Lee Jeong-hee calls it quits.   The far-left presidential candidate, who was a revelation in political entertainment since the first TV debate, withdrew shortly before the third televised debate. Some pundits (jokingly) surmised that the move was made to throw off Park Geun-hye’s preparation for the TV debate, as Park is notoriously poor at handling a situation for which she is unprepared. They might have been right.
  • Third TV debate.   Third and final debate featured only Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. It also drew significantly less viewership compared to the first two, possibly because Lee Jeong-hee’s entertainment was not there. Once again, Park was very, very unimpressive by any objective measure. The best moment was when Moon asked what Park Geun-hye did, as the head of the majority party in the National Assembly, to address the problems that she now proposes to address. Repeatedly, Park said she would deal with them if she becomes the president, wiping away five years of inaction.
  • “Don’t vote, please.”   Kim Mu-seong, the chief campaign manager for Park Geun-hye, said in a breakfast meeting with the press:  “Our strategy is to have the voters in the middle think, ‘I don’t understand what either person is saying,’ and give up the voting itself.” Kim later attempted to explain his statement further, and said the negative campaigning from both sides would turn off a lot of voters, which would help Park Geun-hye. In either case, it is pretty clear that the NFP’s victory depends on suppressing the voter turnout.
  • NFP raids DUP office.   Attempting to match its embarrassing exposure of an illegal campaign office, NFP staffers (along with the Elections Commission officers) raided a suspected illegal campaign office run by DUP. The problem? The office was a duly registered satellite office by the DUP — in fact, the second largest office that DUP held.
  • Old soldiers.   One of the more underrated points to watch in this election is how the older factions that followed Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung have disintegrated. KYS’s followers are split into both Park and Moon camps. Most notably, KYS’s son Kim Hyeon-cheol expressed his support for Moon. Similarly, a significant number of heavyweights within the KDJ cabal joined Park Geun-hye’s camp, with KDJ’s former chief of staff Han Gwang-ok expressing his support for Park.
  • TK’s call.   With both parties claiming that they are leading the field, what does The Korean think about what will happen tomorrow? My only prediction is that, whoever wins, the differential will be less than 2 percent.
  • Django

    A female S. Korean President?   HoHoHoHoHo in your dreams, no way!  MJI will win, men will see to it.

  • Yu Bum Suk

    Thanks for the updates. On Thursday one of my HS students is giving a speech on the differences and similarities between / of American and Korean elections (fascinating topic for teenagers I know but she’s a bit of a nerd). It would have been really nice to know the outcome before preparing her speech.  She seemed to be under the impression that Americans are much more concerned about presidential elections than Koreans and was surprised to learn that voter turnout in both countries has been fairly low in recent elections.

  • Cm

    Why no mention of the DUP raid of a NIS agent’s home, charging her of posting slanderous messages about the DUP online? The charges have been proven to be false, as the police dismissed the case.  The media has saying that NFP’s alleged scandal possibly will sway the swing voters towards Moon.  It’s travesty that DUP is allowed to capitalize over their false allegations and trying to bust into a home of a person who had full rights as a citizen of South Korea.  The liberal media and DUP were screaming like banshee when the charges were announced. Now that the NIS agent was found innocent, they are saying they can’t trust the police, and that the police are in bed with the Conservatives in a conspiracy.

  • Dokdoforever

    The disintegration of old factions would be surprising if those factions were based on something other than a personalistic network organized around one man. If they were held together by policy, class, religion, even region, the faction might persist.  The disintegration of the old factions shows just how personalistic they were.  The main thing those guys all had in common was just the leader of the faction.

    I think I now realize partly why regionalism persists in Korea – because the parties really try to maintain it.  Here in the original TK heartland – Daegu – we get a front row seat to NFP campaigning.  Moon supporters are nowhere to be seen.  The NFP speaker goes on and on about one and only one theme – how Park’s election will be good for Daegu’s revival.  He says nothing at all about Korea.  It’s all about Daegu – love your home town, vote for Park.  Is Park running for Mayor of Daegu?  It sure sounds like it. 

    Moon’s people really waste an opportunity when they write this place off.  There are key constituents that might back him – young people for instance.  He should be here making a pitch to them.  Korea’s electoral system counts every vote – unlike the US.  It’s not first past the post province by province.  So, it could make a big difference whether Park wins Daegu by 90% or 80%.  Those 10% could make the difference. 

    What’s with Korean campaigning anyway?? Talk about appealing to the lowest common denominator.   We’ve got clowns dancing around (literally and figuratively), people doing aerobics in bright colored uniforms,  loads of talk about the various personal characteristics of the candidate.  Very little about policy.  A lot of this hasn’t changed very much since 1987.  Yet, the electorate is much more well educated, much more sophisticated than 1987.  

    The lack of innovative thinking among the Korean political class is depressing.  There are so many opportunities here if someone open to new ideas seized the opportunity.  

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

     The police did not dismiss the case. Look it up.

  • http://www.rjkoehler.com Robert Koehler

    Jesus, CM, next thing you know, you’ll be claiming North Korea really sank the Cheonan.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

     

    The disintegration of old factions would be surprising if those factions
    were based on something other than a personalistic network organized
    around one man. If they were held together by policy, class, religion,
    even region, the faction might persist.  The disintegration of the old
    factions shows just how personalistic they were.  The main thing those
    guys all had in common was just the leader of the faction.

    Good observation. I always knew that they were personality cults, but did not know just how much so. Now I know. That’s why it’s interesting.

  • Cm

    The DUP wants to check and sweep the agent’s belongings including her iPhone, but as far as the police are concerned, you cannot violate her civil rights without any kind of evidence, and just on suspicion.   Without proof, without evidence, as far as I’m concerned  this is a false charge that the DUP camp is trying to use it as political gain.  I would say this was a calculated tactic to smear the NFP – accuse them of dirty electioneering.  If the DUP get lucky and hit the jackpot, then great, but if they’re wrong, oh well.. after all the media negative attention on the NFP, the DUP can say it’s a conspiracy between the NFP, the police, and the NIS.  And that DUP is the only party that will break the old boy’s club of corrupt establishment, appealing to the young and the naive.  
     

  • Hamilton
  • Bill

    Well if you are interested in that and in case you haven’t read it already, maybe you should check out the Politics of the Vortex by Gregory Henderson – see  http://www.amazon.com/Korea-Politics-Vortex-Gregory-Henderson/dp/0674505506.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    The woman had 40 different Internet IDs, and the police did not even search the websites — which is where the records would be kept if she left any smearing comments — before it announced the result. So why announce it before the election? Oh, I know why.

  • Cm

    So why would the DUP try to use the NIS to smear the NFP party?  NIS is the extension of the old Korean Central Intelligence Agency, otherwise known as the KCIA under Park Chung Hee.  DUP’s smear tactic is to appeal to many Koreans who still think of the KCIA when they read about the NIS.  DUP’s psychological play is that NFP + KCIA (the NIS) + the bad police + Park Chung Hee’s daughter, all equals to corrupt dictatorship, and that voting for DUP is voting for democracy.
     

  • http://www.rjkoehler.com Robert Koehler

    Yeah, well, who among us doesn’t have 40 online IDs?

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    Which is all 100% correct.

  • Cm

     That’s not true TK.  The police announced that the woman had 20 ID’s and 20 nicknames.  They went through her computer and did not find any words to slander the DUP.  The DUP is demanding that the police go through her iPhone next, but the police cannot continue to violate her privacy with only suspicion.  DUP has to give the police a good reason to continue to violate the woman’s privacy.  They have not produced it other then accusations.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    No fucking shit there is no word to slander the DUP. Do you even know how commenting on the Internet works? If I leave this comment here, there is no trace of this in my own computer. It is saved at the database for Disqus or WordPress, depending on how the commenting system. The police did not even search the databases of the popular Korean portals before they released their “preliminary conclusion” at 11 p.m. at night. Any guess why the police did that?

  • Cm

    I knew you would bring that shit up.  And that’s what DUP’s position is too. But the police reply is that the hard disk contains history of sites visited. All the the experts spent 9 days trying to find evidences of tampering to damage the remaining evidences in cookies I imagine, but failed to come up with any evidence of tampering.   Sorry buddy, you’re out of luck because without proof and just suspicions isn’t going to make your case any tighter.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    The woman was sitting in her house, undisturbed, for a day and a half. Any record left in the HDD is gone. Nine days? Can you even count? The woman turned in her computer 4 days ago.

    Be glad that I am not even mentioning other bullshit involving that woman, like the fact that she went to work about 3 hours a day, or that the number of website she visited is in the seven figures.

  • Cm

     So what? Maybe she was running a spy operation of some kind, maybe an operation to destabilize North Korea, or even run a prostitution ring. or porn site as a part time job.  How the fuck does the DUP know that she’s been slandering the DUP and that was her true motive?  This charge is just ridiculous if you think about it more and more.

  • Cm

     By the way, I meant the experts examined her hard disk for four days, not nine days.

  • Cm

    ” Undisturbed”?  The woman called the 112 four times, asking them to dispersel the crowd of DUP members and press gathering outside her front door, demanding that she open the door for no reason!  You don’t think that’s a bizarre unacceptable behavior by the press and the DUP?  Heck, if I was her, I would also not give in to the mob made of goons demanding that I open my door, let them come into my home, and let them go through my private stuff – all without any warrant, and especially for without any reason given.    I can understand her actions, as any normal person in that situation would also! 

  • bumfromkorea

    I’m pretty sure any teenagers in both America and Korea can explain to you how to erase all tracks of one’s online activity from his hard drive.

  • Anonymous_Joe

    But the police reply is that the hard disk contains history of sites visited. All the the experts spent 9 days trying to find evidences of tampering to damage the remaining evidences in cookies I imagine, but failed to come up with any evidence of tampering.

    The hard disk probably does not contain history of sites visited even is she visited them.  There are several ways to prevent the cookies from showing up on your computer.  One is to disable the permissions in Options–>Security tab.  Two is to use Incognito in Chrome or Privacy in Firefox mode.  Three is to delete the cookies after each session.  Four is to use a shredder.  Five is to use a Proxy.  If she works for NIS, do you think she’d know any of this?  

    Once again (and I am not weighing in either way about what she allegedly did), the Korean police’s level of ineptitude can only be willful.  I can do a google search on her ID’s in a matter of seconds, the Korean keystone K-ops couldn’t do it in four days.

  • madar

    Nothing is truely erased on a computer unless the action is overwritten by something else.  With the size of modern hard drives this can take a looonnng time.  If the police really searched for the information properly they would have found it, as the only way to make sure to erase all the hidden temporary files is to overwrite the whole drive.  Of course, anyone who works for any spy agency in the world should be smart enough to have seperate personal computers and operational computers, or better yet, don’t use computers you own for operations;  in Korea that would be super easy, say using different PC bangs all the time.

  • brier

    PGH isnt married, so who is going to be First Gentleman for the Republic? And where do I apply?

  • Anonymous_Joe

    Nothing is truely erased on a computer unless the action is overwritten by something else.

    That is very true.  Deleting a file only flips a flag that says the space is available for writing,  The info is still there.  Even by writing to the hard drive, you don’t know that the sector you just deleted is being written over.  That’s what electronic shredders are for.  The shredders typically overwrite seven times.  Even with that level of shred, if the CIA has a hard on for you, they can recover data with an electron microscope.  Really the best way to destroy the data on a disk is to physically destroy the disk.

  • Cm

    Anonymous_Joe, if she really had used the shredder, the partitions would be filled with garbage that the shredder put out after the shredder program shredded the files.  I’m sure that would have signaled that her hard drive was tampered with.  But computer forsenic experts who worked on the computer for four days, found no such evidence of tampering.  Unless those experts were too were in on the conspiracy, there is zero evidence other than the suspicions put out by DUP accusations.  The only evidences are that one of the NIS agent’s human rights have been violated. 

  • Anonymous_Joe

    Cm, that could be true.  The shredder could have just as well put out “The quick brown fox….”  Even without that, If I shredded the files and then defragged, I don’t know how the forensics could know.  Even with that, I doubt that in only four days, they did little more than try to recover from the trash bin.

    Very simply, I think their best bet was to check the online postings of the user’s 40 ID’s.****************************************I don’t want to get technical, but partitions on a physical drive mean something different.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    So you incorrectly claimed that the police cleared the NIS agent, and now you incorrectly claimed that the police examined the computer for nine days. What else are you incorrect on?

  • Cm

    The police has nothing further to go on other than accusations by DUP.  They’ve basically cleared the agent because they could not find any evidence that she uploaded any slanderous comments.  Why don’t the DUP members reveal their evidence that lead to their raiding of her house which violated her civil rights?  What was their tip off that lead to this chase? Why aren’t they telling us?   Could it be that they were engaged in illegality themselves in trying to obtain this information, but ended up making a mistake?  If the DUP supposedly stands for freedom of speech, civil rights, why are they violating these against the NIS agent who has just as many rights as anyone?

    This sounds to me like the police cleared the agent.

    경찰은 16일 밤 ‘문 후보를 비방하는 댓글을 올렸다’라는 의혹이 제기된 국정원 여직원 김모 씨의 개인 컴퓨터 등을 분석한 결과 문
    후보에 대한 비방·지지 게시글이나 댓글 게재 사실을 발견하지 못했다고 밝힌 데 이어 17일 이 같은 내용을 공식 발표했다.

    박 후보는 충남 천안 등의 유세에서 “경찰이 국정원 여직원의 컴퓨터를 아무리 뒤져도 댓글 하나 단 흔적을 발견하지 못했고 그
    불쌍한 여직원은 결국 무죄라는데 민주당은 사과 한마디 안하고 있다”라며 “‘사람이 먼저’라고 하더니 아닌가 보다. 인권유린이나
    다름없다”라고 비판했다. 박 후보는 또 “증거 하나 내놓지 못하면서 ‘국정원은 못 믿겠다, 경찰도 못 믿겠다’라고 하면 대체
    누구를 믿는다는 말이냐”라며 “내가 굿판을 벌였다고 조작 방송하고 ‘신천지’하고 관계있다고 허위 사실을 유포하는 ‘나꼼수’만
    믿는다는 말이냐”라고 비꼬았다.

  • Cm

     The foresenic can still know if she used the shredder because it would contain typical patterns of garbled garbage after the hard disk has been written 3 or 4 times.  Because each shredder program uses dozens of different shredder algorithms which are industry standards.  For example, shredder standards like the US army, the Navy, or the NASA uses.   Think of the paper shredder after you shredded your document.  You can’t read the document anymore, but the shredded pieces of paper tell you right off the bat, that it was in the shredder bin.  The only way to eliminate any traces of it is to burn the pieces, which is equivalent to hard disks being completely physically destroyed beyond repair.
     

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    No wonder you have a distorted sense of reality — you copy/paste the stuff that NFP says.

    The police requested information from major websites regarding the NIS agent’s Internet activity, and Naver and Daum refused to produce information. As of now, the police has NO information as to what the agent did on those sites. Gee, do you think it’s relevant to get information about what the woman did on Korea’s top two web portals? Do you think you should get that squared away BEFORE you release your “preliminary conclusion” at 11 p.m. at night, after Park Geun-hye got destroyed in her third presidential TV debate?

    http://news.hankyung.com/201212/201212180379g.html?ch=news

    If the DUP supposedly stands for freedom of speech, civil rights, why
    are they violating these against the NIS agent who has just as many
    rights as anyone?

    Clearly, you don’t understand what freedom of speech and civil rights mean. No surprise — democracy is alien to you. Here, I’ll give you a hint:  think about what stops the NIS agent from speaking her mind. The answer is: nothing.

  • Cm

     For anyone to demand that someone be searched, they better have a damn good reason why that should be done. Yet the DUP failed to present a reason why this NIS agent was prevented from leaving her own home, and no-one allowed to go into her home, by the DUP members blocking her private house.  This is breaking the law, punishable by up to five years in jail.  As a lawyer yourself, I’m disappointed that you would defend this type of mob justice.   What would anyone say here, if the Korean press camped outside a home of an English teacher, blocking him and others from leaving or going, then demanding that his computer be taken away and searched – all because they have suspicion that he was using false ID’s to get Korean girls into bed? And the only evidence produced is that he’s an English teacher foreigner, and they are known to do that, so that’s enough evidence to search their homes.  That’s the type of level these people are stooping to, just replace the ESL teacher in this example with the NIS agent, and there’s essentially is no difference.
     
    한 검찰 출신 변호사는 “형법상 감금 혐의는 개인을 불법적으로 특정한 장소에 가둬두고 못 나오게 하는 경우에 적용되지만 김 씨가
    자신의 집에서 못 나오도록 한 행위도 크게 보면 감금으로 볼 수 있다”고 말했다. 특히 당직자 여러 명이 김 씨의 집 앞을
    가로막고 있었기 때문에 감금 혐의의 법정형(5년 이하의 징역 또는 700만 원 이하의 벌금)을 절반 이상 높일 수 있는 형법상
    특수감금에 해당한다는 의견도 적지 않다.

    법조계에서는 이 같은 상황이 벌어진 이유 역시 민주당 당직자들이 법 절차를
    무시하고 무리를 한 탓이라는 의견이 적지 않다. 대개 개인이나 집단이 받고 있는 범죄 의혹을 입증해야 하는 책임은 검찰, 경찰 등
    수사기관에 있는데 이번 사건에 민주당은 아무런 근거 자료도 제시하지 않은 채 김 씨에게 의혹을 해소하라고 요구했기 때문이다.
    민주당이 제대로 근거를 대지 못했다면 김 씨가 자신의 컴퓨터를 경찰에 제출할 필요도 없었다는 얘기다.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    You were already wrong about the fact that the police dismissed the claim. Twice you made that false argument, and twice I proved you wrong. So why should anyone believe what you say at this point?

    And really, a pathetic move to get the crowd on your side by analogizing the NIS agent and a random NSET.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    Oh look, another illegal campaign office run by the NFP. It’s like noxious weeds.

    http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/politics/politics_general/566076.html

  • DLBarch

    At the Shorenstein Center at Stanford last night, a small gathering of Korea watchers were in rare agreement about two things: Park is more likely than not to win this thing, and the NFP is playing the worse kind of “old Korea” dirty politics.

    Park may pull off what Lee Hoi-chang failed to do, but if so, she’ll do so by winning ugly.

    DLB

  • Cm

     That’s what I call DUP building up the excuses for the loss.  If they win, they can claim it was a miracle leading to great victory. 

  • bumfromkorea

    So your answer to ‘NFP is running a dirty election’ is ‘well, NFP is going to win, and that will be the opposition’s excuse for losing’? How, uh, 70s’ of you.

    For a bunch of people who despise all things even remotely associated with NK, Korean conservatives sure love NK’s politics.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    Well well, it looks like the police is still investigating: http://news.donga.com/2012president/3/000635/20121219/51704094/1

    민주통합당이 제기한 국가정보원 선거 개입 의혹 주장에 대한 경찰 수사의 최종 결론은 대선 이후에야 내려질 것으로 보인다. 서울 수서경찰서는 18일 “서울지방경찰청 사이버수사대로부터 국정원 여직원 김모 씨(28)의 개인용컴퓨터 2대와 하드디스크를 분석한 결과를 넘겨받고 중간 수사발표 때 미진했던 부분을 계속 수사할 예정”이라며 “상당한 시일이 필요해 수사 종료 시점을 예상하기 어렵다”고 밝혔다.

    See that, CM? The police is saying it will take a number of days, and can’t estimate when the investigation would end.

    This bit is also interesting — only one of her Internet IDs was made in her own name. All others, fake. Gee, I wonder what she was doing with 39 fake Internet IDs.

  • DLBarch

    Actually, CM, as I quipped last night, if MJI loses this week, the DUP will have plenty of excuses…”from Ahn to Zzzzzzz.”

    DLB

  • Hamilton

    So your name really is The_Korean?  Mine actually is Hamilton, it looks like you must be a DUP mole.

  • http://www.askakorean.net/ The_Korean

    Wow. Do you seriously not know how to make online IDs in Korea? How long have you lived in Korea again? Most websites (especially large portal sites) require the Resident Registration No., unique to each individual. The implication here is that the NIS agent used her own registration number in only one occasion.

  • Django

    “What would anyone say here, if the Korean press camped outside a home of an English teacher, blocking him and others from leaving or going,”

    Take out “Korean press” and insert Wonjang(hagwon director) and you might have something there.