Because the Elections Law prohibits disclosure of opinion polls within one week of the election date, today’s polls will be the last poll results before the election. And the numbers are quite interesting.
Numbers first: Park Geun-hye is still leading in all polls. But Park’s lead, which was beyond the margin of error (i.e. around 6~7%), is now razor-thin. Dong-A Ilbo’s poll shows 45.3% to 41.4%, i.e. Park leading by 3.9%. RealMeter’s daily poll shows 48.3% to 47.1%, a lead of 1.2%. And the best of all, Munhwa Ilbo’s poll shows 42.8% to 41.9% — i.e. Park leading by 0.9%. The million dollar question now is — will Moon Jae-in’s momentum from the last few days be enough to turn the table a week from today?
Another interesting wrinkle is the voter turnout. The conventional wisdom is that higher voter turnout will favor Moon Jae-in. Moon’s camp estimates that Moon stands a solid chance to win if the turnout is around 70%. The turnout for 2002 presidential election was 70.8%, and the same for 2007 was 63.2%. As of now, there are some indications this election will be closer to 2002 than 2007. First, the final turnout for overseas voting — which concluded last weekend — was 71.2%. Second, the Elections Commission announced that it was expecting a turnout of nearly 80%, based on its own survey. No matter how this ends, it will be a photo finish.
-EDIT- Yowza. RealMeter’s latest poll (which is really the last one before the elections) shows 48.0% to 47.5%, Park Geun-hye leading by 0.5%. Lee Jeong-hee is pulling 1.9%.