In The Atlantic, Kyle Mizokami—who blogs at Japan Security Watch-–argues very persuasively that the US—Japanese security relationship needs to be brought into the 21st century.
Read the whole thing on your own—here’s just a taste (and a timely taste at that):
Like Japan, the United States has benefitted greatly from the bilateral relationship. Changing times however have made the treaty a dangerous anachronism for America. While the notion of defending Japan’s Home Islands during the Cold War was clearly in the American interest, today the United States risks being drawn into territorial disputes in which it has no clear national interest, with an ally unprepared for war.
The alliance shackles the United States to a total commitment of Japan’s defense. This was appropriate when the primary adversary was the Soviet Union, and to a lesser extent North Korea and China. Today, however, America risks conflict over longstanding territorial grievances in Asia. Japan has territorial disputes with most of its neighbors, several of which are nuclear armed (China, Russia) and some, awkwardly, are key American allies (South Korea, Taiwan.) One need look no farther than the current crisis over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands to see a situation where America might be dragged into a conflict. Very few Americans see the Senkaku dispute as America’s problem.
The alliance also risks drawing America into conflict alongside a Japanese ally that is unprepared to do its share of the fighting. Japan’s self-defense forces, while well equipped and trained, are crippled by a lack of offensive weapons and doctrine. Japanese forces know only the defense; offense-minded American forces would be obliged to assume responsibility for the offense in any conflict. The idea of America counter-attacking China or some other Asian country over a handful of tiny islands is ludicrous, but here we are.
The only thing I’d add is that it would probably be a lot easier to renovate the US—Japan security relationship if Japan had some regional security partners with whom to work. South Korea would seem the most obvious potential partner, and once upon a time, it seemed this partnership would materialize. Given the way China is behaving, it still might, despite the best efforts of politicians in both Seoul and Tokyo to ensure it doesn’t.
The fact remains, though, that the way things are now, any attempt to revise the US—Japan security relationship in a way that boosts Japan’s military role in the region will be viewed quite negatively by just about everyone in Northeast Asia—save for possibly Taiwan—and this will hurt US relationships in the region. Mizokami writes that “A new U.S.-Japan security agreement would demonstrate to Asia that the United States understands the fundamental rules have changed and that America is renewing its commitment to the region,” but unless this agreement is accompanied by efforts to improve ties between Japan and its neighbors (particularly other US allies), the region will view a new US—Japan security agreement not as a renewed US commitment, but rather as a threat and source of instability. And as the region’s former colonizer and potentially the dominant military player (save for China), Japan shoulders most of the burden of soothing the animosity and concern.
{ 66 comments… read them below or add one }
wedge, what were you saying?
repent, japan! repent!
I think it’s a terrible idea. Withdrawing unconditional support for Japan would embolden China, and would increase the likelihood of regional conflict, which would increase the likelihood of the US getting drawn into it further down the track.
Japan, with a lack of support, would probably just end up gradually appeasing China, and we all know how appeasement worked out for Europe prior to WW2.
One of the reasons the Europeans tried appeasement prior to WW2 was because they tried unconditional mutual defence treaties prior to WW1 and that didn’t work out too well for them either.
Appeasement has a bad name. I think it worked out quite well for Finland post WW2.
I think it’s a great ideal. As long as the United States unconditionally supports an ally like Japan, the rest of Asia will not unconditionally trust the impartiality of the United States. After WWII, Japan pretty much got away with no punishment for being allied with Nazi Germany, and they were under no requirement to face up to their history. The result is what you see in Asia today. Of course if the US revises the alliance there’s a chance that Japan will rearm and become more irrational, but they’re already doing that anyway. The US doesn’t really need to anything drastic even. Just come out and make an official statement, the US will not get involved in island disputes in Asia.
#2, what you say maybe true, but the chances of the US getting drawn into a conflict with China is higher now, when the US unconditionally support Japan. Will Americans would like to die for the Senkaku Island?
L’express has a good article Japan-South Korea: “a past that does not pass” (English google translation from original French).
#6,
a scathing criticism on Japan.
Here’s another one.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alexis-dudden/koreajapan-standoff-why-a_b_1885534.html
Gerry Bevers has a lot of work to do.
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary today, in the press conference says Japan has no need to take China to ICJ because the island is unquestionably Japanese, and is not a disputed territory.
I see that they’ve taken the same stance as Korea has regarding Dokto/Takeshima.
I don’t think Americans would like to unconditionally support these guys who are in power right now, with blood.
Murakami Haruki has a voice. He is a man for peace.
http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/09/28/novelist-murakami-weighs-in-on-japan-territorial-rows/
Korea and China will never let Japan rearm.
Korea and China can’t stop Japan either.
Japan is playing the game, and since I have been watching – playing it very well.
getting China and Korea twisted up in their knickers over ownerships of different islands and stuff – just has Japan laughing.
Japanese are not stupid – and they know what they are doing.
Kyle the blogger discounts the deterrent effect on China of Uncle Sam just being there on the Senkaku dispute. At the very least it keeps China guessing and so far at least has limited Chinese provocations and incursions (and Japanese responses) to non-military vessels.
For a taste of what China would arguably do in a heartbeat if the US withdraws the security guarantee or modifies its application to Senkaku, google “Mischief Reef” or ask an informed Filipino.
Jakgani, Japan has been playing the same game behind USA for 60 years and counting. Japan will never be rearm and USA will prevent them for doing so. How can any neighboring countries trust or even ally with Japan when Japan is having territorial disputes with them?
China’s Red Cross Society has donated a total of 6 million yuan (around 909,000 U.S. dollars) in emergency aid to its Japanese counterpart.
President Hu Jintao on Monday offered condolences to Japanese Emperor Akihito over the massive quake and pledged further help. Hu said the Chinese government and people “stand ready to offer necessary help.”
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We can all help the relief effort by donating to the American Red Cross through the International Response Fund. Better Chinese will match all donations for a total contribution up to $5,000.
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Japan specifically requested teams from Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States
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The Chinese government decided Wednesday to donate 20,000 tons of fuel to Japan consisting of 10,000 tons of gasoline and 10,000 tons of diesel.
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Taiwan provided over US$243 million, the highest amount in the world,
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Japan has many friends…
On the contrary, it shows how quickly Japan has pissed away all the good will and sympathy from the earthquake
#13,
but look at it from the other side. Without the unconditional military backing from the US in regards to the Senkaku, Japan may not be so hawkish, instead forcing them to negotiate. The US should support Japan militarily, and be a general presence in Asia Pacific. But they should stay clear of squabbles involving territories. Keep the middle ground on historical and territorial issues.
When one is born Korean, the menu of possible opinions one can have on Japan is about as wide as the TV channel choices available to the average DPRK resident. That is a hard fact of life and it plays out in almost every comment on this board, even among folks who are capable of nuance on other issues.
As one who accepts and wouldn’t change the status quo in the Sea of Japan — meaning Dokdo remains in ROK hands, etc — I maintain that all this taking joy in Japanese misfortunes and setbacks is mighty short-sighted and misguided given the way China is acting and where it looks like it is heading. If China is going to be such an asshole in good economic times, what might it do in a real economic downturn?
More broadly, it is a majorly mistaken analysis to say that Japan is whipping up this latest round of territorial disputes. The Dokdo dispute is 60 years old and the Diaoyu dispute is about 40 years old. Each party to the dispute has pro forma positions on the territories that they repeat ad nauseum on official websites and white papers etc when they need to. (Korea and/or its loyalists have for the last decade gone a lot further with various stunts around the world. Japan appears to be the only one of the three countries where it is politically possible to publicly question or reject your government’s stance.)
The catalysts for recent tension on both fronts have been the non-Japanese party: Lee Myungbak’s island tour and China’s ever more brazen challenges to Japanese control of the Senkaku cluster since the fishing boat captain’s arrest in Aug 2010, and the hatefest Beijing is stirring up now based on its willful misreading of the motives behind the national island purchase and its negligible actual impact on the state of affairs there.
I see a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment for Korea and China, with omens already coming in in the form of the elevation of the unloved Abe Shinzo. Adult supervision in NE Asia is sorely missing right now, not least with the US in the most inward-looking stage of the 2012 election. Small politicians, including in Japan, are thinking small thoughts with possibly huge ramifications.
‘The catalysts for recent tension on both fronts have been the non-Japanese party: Lee Myungbak’s island tour…’
B*LLSH*T! i’d say it’s japan’s lack of remorse and collective introspection. don’t blame the vicitms but seeing yuz a yahoo, i understand. always trying to excuse japan’s inhumanity. asian life cheap, ain’t it there, slim? trailer trash.
The US policy should shift towards blowing up any small rocks it finds poking up out of the ocean near East Asia.
#18,
As for the Chinese menace, there’s a far better way for the US to deal with them than the military confrontation. Economic pressure is the way to go. Stop shipping out so many jobs to China and stop growing China’s economy, thus growing its power.
here’s an article from nick kristoff from the nyt. japan needs to repent! show remorse! show contrition! we ain’t gonna shut up about this.
http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/the-inconvenient-truth-behind-the-diaoyusenkaku-islands/
btw, the above link should give gerry a boner with the maps and historical documents and all.
#23,
That’s funny.
If the rising right wing sentiment keeps growing maybe Japan will go the way of the Weimar republic. I know it is kind of extreme scenario.
Mistrust on Japanese government’s management of disasters has led over 170,000 Japanese anti-nuke demonstration. Japanese politicians were surprised with the massive civilian movement, whilst calculating how to transfer the internal frustration to meet their rightwing political interests.
Isn’t this guy just making overly explicit what everyone understood when Hillary Clinton said “hey, cool it down”? Japan already knows it’s playing a dangerous game of political chicken before the U.S. election.
Nobel Prize laureate Kenzaburo Oe and 1,270 Japanese intellectuals raised voice against rise of Japanese right-wingers:
http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2012092993608
As I have been writing on this topic for years, the US must terminate the relationship. This recent clash between China and Japan clearly shows the mutual defense treaty is very, very, very dangerous. The Chinese are hungry, mad and crazy.
Fighting them near China is not a kid play. And, then when they are losing, they may shoot nuclear missiles to CONUS. Right to NewYork, Washington and Los Angeles.
This situation is not just a land debate. The Chinese hate the Japanese’ guts. Extreme hates.
The US might get into this situation as a “police” and the US public may think that is all it is but when the war progresses this can possibly end the US. Nuclear missile detonating at major US cities and millions and millions deaths.
Just to protect the Japanese? Fools die.
Way to cement Slim’s point, Pawi.
RolyPoly, Japan is USA’s favorite pet in East Asia. They would support Japan more than South Korea and it has been doing that for more than 60 years.
As long as the existing Communist Party governs China, there will not be a war with either the U.S. or Japan.
They are collectively a group of risk adverse corrupt traitorous eunuchs who will do nothing beyond ensuring their immediate survival and stashing away more money to slush funds for their relatives in the West.
Old Mao, dirty rotten no good communist bandit that he was, was no coward. If he was still alive today, we would be fishing the bodies of the Japanese coast guard from the waters around Diaoyutai and there would be Chinese marines already entrenched on the island.
He was willing to fight the US to save that useless rat Kim Il Sung, fight the Soviets over half of an island in the middle of a river, and fight the Indians over a pen stroke on a map.
If China had a leader with half a pair as big as Mao’s do you think the Viets or the Pinoys would say two words about some islands in the South China Sea? They’d bitch and moan in private to be sure but it would all be “no sir” and “yes sir” in public and they would no more entertain the preposterous notion of challenging China any more than Mexico can of the U.S.
#32
Yes it was easier when you had nothing and people went hungry because you had nothing to lose by going to war. Now it’s a different story, since you have to protect your investment, worry about pleasing foreign investors, and keeping what you have built up over the years, intact.
To paraphrase Braveheart, the poor man risks no less in war than the rich one.
It’s not your wealth that determines your level of aggression, otherwise America wouldn’t have attacked a dozen or so countries in the last 3 decades. Granted they were all turd world sh*tholes who had no capability of fighting back, so I guess that just makes America a cowardly or opportunistic bully. France, the UK, and Germany were all quite relatively wealthy between the 18th-20th century when they fought all their wars.
Isn’t the Chinese military more hawkish than the CCP?
Over the last 30 years, the US has gone in wars with only small countries. I could not imagine the US have a direct war with the USSR when USSR was a serious threat to the US during the cold war. There are many ways to win a war. PRC has lots of internal challenges and economy is not all optimistic. Why not let PRC regime collapse like the USSR did? The dumbest possible choice of the US is getting trapped into world war due to Japanese provoking conflicts on sh*t rocks in Asia.
What is it with the idol worship of mass murderer Mao? Sixty five million Chinese died for his vanity, insanity, yet there seems to be no lack of love in China today for this genocidal maniac!
Jing, China is already divided internally, socially and politically. China is still mostly underdeveloped and poor, still sticking to the name “sick man of Asia”, right?
China is waiting to be divided.
If the US is ready to give up lots of auto and Apple factories in China and spend gazillion dollars and sacrifice soldiers lives for the sake of the sh*t rocks, let them do the dumb feats with the aging Japan of failing economy.
The USSR had decades of human rights abuse and Siberian labor camps. The Iron Curtain was removed not by direct combative wars, but by superiority of the US economy to the USSR. Why not the US improves more domestic industry and stop outsourcing their jobs to PRC? Winning at economy is the best way to bloodless victory over China without sacrificing US citizens’ lives.
China is just a big sweatshop nation, nothing more.
Japan is very well prepared for war.
Hail the end of the humans on earth.
RolyPoly,
it is very unlikely that the US will let go of Japan. During the cold war the US viewed Japan as a central bastion against communist in the far east everybody else was periphery. Which explains why it irks countries like Korea as why the US tends to go along with Japanese views and is also ignorant.
It’s very unlikely that US will do anything but watch the relationship whither to 2ndary importance as other countries mainly china gain in prominence due to economics. Japan will just be nudged aside.
jk6411,
the problem with china is that it is developing its own military industrial complex. At the rate they are going they’d make the same mistake as the US try to spread their influence and piss people off about chinese meddling. Which in turn the military will justify higher spending for “security”.
Pops,
Mao was great as a guerrilla leader but was terrible at ruling the country. All those records about the silly experiments such as the Great Leap Forward (or rather great leap to starvation) are considered state secrets. Kind of funny that they are doing the same thing as Japanese with records pertaining to comfort women and other atrocities. Mao killed more chinese than the Japanese with their rampaging ways. These two countries deserve to go after each other and let Korea watch in the sideline.
KWillets,
I think the US policy should shift to colonize all 3 countries that way all three countries will be brought together to bitch about the samething. All three in unisom.
TheKorean2,
The US is not stupid enough to go to a nuclear war to protect the “pet”.
China shows no inclination to split.
You read mainly Korean newspapers?
Americans are very smart. And, willing to quickly change if needed.
We do not want a nuclear war.
China is not just a U.S. factory but also a market. So, economic sanctions would not be easy.
hardyandtiny:
Why do think so? Japan’s leaning right but not ready for a war.
RolyPoly:
Don’t worry. Your Congress won’t let your military fight China, though the credibility and deterrance of the alliance would become dubious. Also, note what TK2 says about the U.S. spoiling Japan.
Let me add that I can take Koreans being pissed at Japan … pawi and others … I do not feel upset to read their comments — as a Japanese, I’m not entitled to — though sometimes a bit scared. On the other hand, somehow, I feel really irritated to see comments like RolyPoly’s … so ignorant of or intentionally blind to the world order pretty much of the U.S. making. The alliance is not just made for the defense of Japan.
The Financial Times link is not feasible, so here is full text.
Japan’s not ready to be a reliable ally
From Dr Jean-Pierre Lehmann.
Sir, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon’s suggestion that “Japan must be the new indispensable ally for the US in Asia” (September 10) is an absolute non-starter; going down that road would be disastrous for the US and for the region.
First, Japan has become more than ever since the end of the second world war, and more than any other major country, an inward looking-nation. There is no Japanese world view. The number of Japanese students in the US has significantly declined, in contrast to the growing numbers from many other Asian countries. Japan scores last but one (North Korea) in TOEFL (tests of English as a foreign language). Since Sadako Ogata served as the UN high commissioner for refugees there has been no prominent Japanese holding an international position. There is no visibility, let alone influence, of Japan at the World Trade Organisation. On this, as in respect to many other issues, no one knows what Japan stands for. At international policy forums, the Japanese, apart from a tiny handful of regulars, tend to be conspicuous by their absence. Japan remains a very closed country to foreigners: there are very, very few foreigners (and especially few non-Japanese Asians) in prominent positions in Japanese companies, Japanese universities, Japanese think-tanks, Japanese non-governmental organisations (of which there are very few internationally inclined), and so on. The picture of Japanese corporate diplomacy they present is a throwback to a vision of the 1980s, which was pretty much a mirage already then.
Second, and far more critical as recent events so sadly demonstrate, Japan, unlike Germany, has still not made peace with its neighbours. Relations are terrible with the Koreans and with China, but they are also bad with many other Asian countries or entities, including Hong Kong and Taiwan. Not only has Japan shown no leadership in Asia, it has been seen to behave in a highly mercantilist fashion and with a stunning lack of conscience of its past atrocities. The Japanese have shown themselves, at best, to be amazingly insensitive.
For the moment, unlike in the 1930s and 1940s, Japan poses no military threat. However, its behaviour vis-à-vis the world in general and its Asian neighbours in particular poses a serious security threat. There can be no peace in the Asia of the 21st century if the peace of the 20th century in Asia has not been restored. By whitewashing the past (as the US did vis-à-vis Japan and Asia in the aftermath of the second world war) and embracing Japan as an indispensable ally in Asia, the US will be seriously exacerbating the already explosive regional condition.
Japan should be encouraged to make peace and open up. Then prospects for a peaceful and prosperous Pacific will be greatly enhanced.
Jean-Pierre Lehmann, Emeritus Professor at IMD, Lausanne, Switzerland
“Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2012.
Q, have you herad of copyright? You could get Mr. Marmot in trouble.
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“On the other hand, somehow, I feel really irritated to see comments like RolyPoly’s … so ignorant of or intentionally blind to the world order pretty much of the U.S. making. The alliance is not just made for the defense of Japan.” – mickster wrote.
Let me tell you about Americans.
1. We are very pragmatic people. We basically do thing to improve our financial lives.
2. We have no attachment (other than Europe). Japan is not important to us.
3. As a consequence of (1), we are fickle. See what we did to VietNam and Taiwan. We can pull out any time, even from Japan.
4.New world order is the US and China. Japan can be sacked.
5. The alliance is old and useless especially when Japan misbehaves like this. Japan is a heavy liability that can involve the US to a war it cannot win. Like VietNam, but 10 times worse.
Japan must go.
Japan has enough military fighting power to face China and even defend itself without the help of the US.
America will only get in the war in the last stage when China is about to land in Japan. When all the cities in Japan are get bombed by Chinese planes and millions dies.
Japan is now sending a very clear message that it can and will fight China. So, let the Japanese fight the Chinese. These fools deserve each other. So nationalistic, so bound in 20th century, so close-mindes, so, so, so,….. so, stupid.
Fools die.
Japan has been “buying” US politicians, providing money and women (men too?).
Otherwise, Japan really does not fit into American ideal. Still defending what they did during WWII, not apologizing anything, keeping WWII symbols…just ignorant SOBs.
The US does not maintain relationship with dictators and it should not protect Nazis like the Japanese. However, politicians got paid (Reagan got 2 million for 30 min speech) and military wanted to its foothold in Asia.
The 90% of Americans do not know about the US-Japan defense treaty and want to cancel if the war breaks out.
The will be the final result of this Senkaku folly Japan started. It shot itself on foot and then asked for the US to pay the cost.
Americans are not stupid people.
“Americans are not stupid people.”
Ｉbelieved as much till I started reading your posts. Get some help with ur own language
“Japan is now sending a very clear message that it can and will fight China. So, let the Japanese fight the Chinese.”
China’s DongFengs with nuclear warheads can destroy Japan. Japan will lose a war with China, its a given. Rolypoly, Japan wants to drag US into the fight.
TheKorean2,
The US is smart enough to cut the Japanese off any time when its national interest is threatened.
Koreans, however, are not smart enough. Bringing Sex-slave issue and Dokto issue to international scene is a big mistake. There is no country, including the US, who will take interests in any of these. It only angers the Japanese and the war may shift to Japan-Korea war, instead of China-Japan war.
Keep a low profile and let these two losers kill each other off.
Europeans and even the US want that. Koreans should not be the real victim of the upcoming conflict.
Keep a low profile and just watch.
The worst scenario for Korea would be somehow the Chinese start thinking it can “use” Koreans to fight the Japanese. China loves 어부지리; let Koreans fight the Japanese while they play the peacemaker.
“Korea and Japan will fight to death and China and the US will try to stop”- this will make Koreans to be the biggest fool of all.
Koreans should keep quite about any issue. Just be quiet.
redwhitedude @#43,
Well, China certainly has the cash to do that.
And I bet it could build up its military for a lot lower cost than say, the US. (hmm, that’s not good)
“Koreans, however, are not smart enough. Bringing Sex-slave issue and Dokto issue to international scene is a big mistake. There is no country, including the US, who will take interests in any of these. It only angers the Japanese and the war may shift to Japan-Korea war, instead of China-Japan war.”
I highly doubt South Korea and Japan would go to war over Dokdo and comfort women issue. ㅋㅋㅋ
jk641 @56 – Sounds like Red Dawn 2012 before the post production change making the North Koreans the invaders rather than the Chinese.
hacker,
I haven’t seen that one yet.
(maybe when it comes out on DVD.)
TheKorean2,
Many Korean politicians and TV and newspaper reporters have strong ties with Chinese companies, NK government or pro-Communist faction.
Some are getting directly paid by NKs or by the Chinese.
When time is right, all these people together with 조선족 will steer Koreans to extreme anti-Japanese propaganda. Even some NK ships may put on the Japanese flag and attack some Korean ports.
The war will be started by manipulation.
Millions will die fighting the Japanese. Your family, your friends and your citizens, dying for the Chinese.
So, cool it. No anti-Japanese anything.
Otherwise, Koreans will be manipulated by the Chinese.
Roly,
I’m glad you still find time for teh kittehs.
Very good article about Korean situation.
http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2960196
“The question for me is can it be done in an amicable and wise way so that there isn’t tension between the richer people of the South and the poor people of the North?”
-There is no amicable way. Unless all the people in the South give one half of all they have (chance of this happening is zero), the North will form a mob just like in Russia. This mob will consist of former military officers. They will assassinate, kidnap, kill, rape, and take from South Koreans. No one can stop them. The unification can finish the South.
jk641 @#56
well I’m not sure if it is going to be cheaper. Maybe they will get away with copying stuff from other countries but from the looks of it their defense industry is not considered as capable or at the level of the US. They just copy a lot which shows that they are not at a point were they can develop their own stuff. BTW they do they will have created the same monster as the US.
Another point from the Article. Even though the historian says in various ways, but he is giving one advice from history: “Shut your mouth”
Korea does not have hardwares to wage a war. So, keep your trap shut. Let the other losers fight their wars. Koreans just stay calm and watch.
That is exactly what I have been saying.
redwhitedude @#63,
I wouldn’t discount the Chinese too much.
I was very impressed with the way they sent men into space and all.
There are a lot of smart Chinese.
And they are stealing an awful lot of technology from other countries.
They already have nuclear ballistic missile submarines, and they’re developing stealth fighters and aircraft carriers.
They’ve also developed a fearsome ballistic missile that could possibly neutralize enemy aircraft carriers.
They’re always thinking up ways they could neutralize America’s military strengths.
All the money that the West (and East) invested in China, instead of turning China into a capitalist, democratic country, I fear will have created a military industrial monster that eventually threatens the ones that fed it.
RolyPoly, your conspiracy theories are hilarious. What South Korean companies are actually funded by NK or China? Name some. In fact, its the only the opposite that works here. S.Korea doesn’t trust either countries and they never will.
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