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Assembly election open thread

I will periodically update as the votes are being counted:

10:54 p.m.

- Looking good for NFP so far. With a little more than 70.4% of the votes counted as of this moment, the projection is: NFP 148, DUP 130, UPP 14, LFP 5 and independents 3. If the current trend holds, the conservatives (NFP + LFP) will hold the majority. NFP did especially well in Gyeongsang-do and Gangwon-do, making up the deficit in Seoul.

- The proportional representation went to the progressives, as the projection is:  NFP 24, DUP 22, UPP 6, LFP 2.

- The final voter turnout was 54.3%, 8.2% higher than the last National Assembly election but lower than most projections.

11:07 p.m.

Listing a few areas of interest:

- At Busan Sasang-gu, DUP’s Moon Jae-In is confirmed to win over NFP’s Sohn Su-Jo. The progressives are projected to take 3 seats in Busan, a somewhat disappointing haul.

- At Seoul Nowon-gu 1, NFP’s Lee No-Geun is confirmed to win over DUP’s Kim Yong-Min, the controversial host of 나는 꼼수다.

- At Seoul Gangnam-gu 2, NFP’s Kim Jong-Hoon is confirmed to win over DUP’s Chung Dong-Yeong in the pro- versus anti-FTA fight.

- At Busan Saha-gu 1, NFP’s Moon Dae-Seong (who plagiarized his doctorate thesis) is confirmed to win over DUP’s Choi In-Ho.

- And just for giggles, at Seoul Mapo-gu 2, independent Kang Yong-Seok is projected to win 5.4% of the votes.

11:24 p.m.

- By the way, the elections color map is something to behold. Can you say east-west divide?

11:32 p.m.

A look at very close elections:

- At Busan Busanjin-gu 1, DUP’s Kim Yeong-Choon is leading NFP’s Na Seong-Rin by 52(!) votes.

- At Gyeonggi-do Uijeongbu 1, NFP’s Kim Sang-Do is leading DUP’s Moon Hee-Sang by 65 votes.

- Overall, there are 10 districts that are still within 300 votes differential.

1:20 a.m.

- Talk about a close one! At Gyeonggi Goyang 1, UPP’s Shim Sang-Jeong defeated NFP’s Sohm Beom-Gyu by 170 votes. At Gyeonggi Siheung 1, NFP’s Ham Jin-Gyu beat DUP Baek Won-Woo by 202 votes. At Gyeonggi Goyang 2, NFP’s Kim Tae-Won beat DUP’s Song Du-Yeong by 227 votes.

2:42 a.m.

- That’s all she wrote, folks. With 98.7% of the votes counted, the (nearly certain) final score:  NFP 152, DUP 127, UPP 13, LFP 5, Independents 3. NFP pulled out the improbable victory tonight — my congratulations to them.

I will stop the updates for now, and put up a summary post in the evening (U.S. time).

  • Charles Tilly

    At Seoul Gangnam-gu 2, NFP’s Kim Jong-Hoon is confirmed to win over DUP’s Chung Dong-Yeong in the pro- versus anti-FTA fight.

    Apparently we’ve got a little controversy with this one.

  • http://askakorean.blogspot.com thekorean

    @1 I don’t want to hear it. It reeks of progressive desperation…

  • DLBarch

    Interesting results. Seems I have a good number of disappointed friends this morning.

    On the other hand, I see “yesterday’s man” and perennial ajumma heartthrob Rhee In-je cruised to re-election, so that’s something, I guess. Not sure what he’ll do for the next few years, but I always liked the old Embassy joke about him being “a man with a great future behind him.”

    DLB

  • milton

    With 84% of votes counted and it now looks like the NFP will retain a slim majority with 153 seats.

  • slim

    @1/2 This could be fun to watch. There are few bigger drama queens in politics anywhere than Chung Dong-Yeong.

  • Charles Tilly

    I thought this was a good take on things:

    대선으로 가는 길에 좋은 학습을 했다고 생각하죠. 강원은 평창 때문에, 충남은 박근혜가 세종시 관련하여 MB와 각을 세운 것이 주효했고, 무엇보다도 공천과정에서 민주당이 새누리당보다 나은 점을 보여주지 못한 점이 결정적 패인이라고 봅니다. [From 진중권 Twitter]

  • DLBarch

    The interesting this about the Seoul map is that not only is there the expected north of the Han/south of the Han divide, but the results in the southern districts are NFP blow-outs.

    There may be Kangnam progressives out there, but it seems that a lot of that may have been media hype, as well.

    I really should get back to work, but that map link above really is fascinating…and a time-suck!

    DLB

  • Charles Tilly

    This could be fun to watch. There are few bigger drama queens in politics anywhere than Chung Dong-Yeong.

    Agree on the fun to watch part part. Who doesn’t like a nice little controversy to go with an election?

  • cm

    LOL, Slim said it in the other thread.

    The Progressives backing that clown, Kim Yong Min are crying foul and accusing of vote fraud. Good Lord, it never fails with any of them….

  • http://rjkoehler.com Robert Koehler

    What are they smoking in Seoul Mapo-gu 2?

  • milton

    Over 92% of ballots have been counted and the NFP is still projected to have a comfortable 3 seat majority. Overall, the NFP walloped the DUP 42.1% to 37%, but if you group parties by ideology, the conservatives (NFP and LFP) fell slightly behind the progressives (DUP and UPP) by roughly 2% (45.1% to 47.1%). That’s not counting the independents.

  • milton

    *sorry, 2 seat majority, not 3.

  • milton

    *sorry, 2 seat majority, not 3.

  • adbc

    #11 = ideological grouping is meaningless.

    For me, the results show the limitations of the Internet, particularly in regards to liberal over-representation. Certainly not a Korean exclusive phenomenon either.

  • cm

    What’s interesting that catches my eyes, two candidates, Cho Myung-chul, a North Korean defector, and Jasmine Lee, a Filipina, have now been elected to the parliament through the proportional representation ticket of the Saenuri Party.

  • http://rjkoehler.com Robert Koehler

    I guess I needn’t point out the big winner after tonight is Park Geun-hye?

  • cm

    .. and Korea.

  • Charles Tilly

    I guess I needn’t point out the big winner after tonight is Park Geun-hye?

    Her journey is not yet over….

  • cm

    Progressives scored an own goal to lose the game in the last minute. They blew themselves up. Generally, people do not like radical ideologists, and voters voted the way they did because they had no choice.

  • adbc

    ^I would argue it’s more like an own goal + an (unintentional) assist down at the other end.

    I hope my comments get approved in time for everyone to see.

  • milton

    It’s official now: with 98% of the vote in and all races called, the NFP will retain control of the National Assembly by a two seats. Combined, conservatives will have 157 seats, progressives will get 140, and independents will get 3. Despite this, the progressives beat the conservatives by 1.7% (45.5% to 47.2%). The NFP recieved 42.1% of the vote and 152 seats (127 SMD and 25 PL), the DUP recieved 36.9% of the vote and 128 seats (106 SMD and 21 PL), the UPP recieved 10.3% of the vote and 13 seats (7 SMDs and 6 PL), the LFP recieved 3.4% of the vote and 5 seats (2 SMD and 3 PL), and independents got 6.9% and 3 seats.

  • milton

    *Correction: The DUP got 127 seats not 128, and Independents got 7.2%, not 6.9%