In his book “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power,” former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski warns that if American power were to decline, Korea might face a “painful choice” of either accepting Chinese regional hegemony or strengthening cooperation with Japan.
Or so reports the Hanguk Ilbo.
Noting North Korea’s repeated provocations, Brzezinski said each time, Korea looked for American support, and this shows just how much Korea continuously depends on the United States for physical security.
Because of this, American decline would present Korea with a painful choice. One would be to accept Chinese regional hegemony, to regard China as the guarantor of East Asian security. The other would be for Korea to strengthen its relationship with Japan despite their historical enmity. The two nations share democratic values, and both fear North Korean and Chinese aggression.
Brzezinski is skeptical that Japan can stand up to China without support from a strong America. Because of this, if trust in American security commitments in East Asia weakens, the region could run into political and military threats.
In particular, Korea, Taiwan and Turkey depend on the American nuclear umbrella, but an American decline could present a crisis of faith in the American nuclear umbrella. In such a case, the nations would search for security elsewhere.
And by elsewhere, he means either by either developing their own nuclear weapons, or depending on extended deterrence from other nuclear states like China, Russia and India.
In particular, Brzezinski predicted that US decline would make it difficult to stop nuclear arms races between small states, considering North Korean belligerence and the failure of the six-party talks. He also said China could play a decisive role of promoting unification when the time for peaceful Korean unification comes. In such a case, Korea might have to decide whether to trade a Chinese-supported unification for a reduced Korea—US alliance.
{ 52 comments… read them below or add one }
Except that at the time being Japan doesn’t have an “army” but a self-defence force.
This could change when US’s influence weakens in East Asia. Japan will nullify the post-WWII Constitution and recreate their own army, as chinese influence gets bigger in Asia.
follow the money (spec. your biggest customers) and money now spells C-H-I-N-A, definitely not Japan…complicated times ahead
American in shitter, EU in shitter, japan in shitter,
China rollin, they hatin.
A good, tangentially, related article from the WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577213262856669448.html?fb_ref=wsj_share_FB_bot&fb_source=profile_multiline
So where are all the people who said a more open China will turn them into a democracy? So where all the people who said a powerful China will be a benevolent superpower?
That’s right. They are no longer to be found.
Some observations:
- Japan’s military is nothing to sneeze at. It would not take long at all to develop into something that could rival China’s military. A declining US, even it wanted to, wouldn’t be able to stop this from happening.
- China has a gender imbalance that makes South Korea look downright progressive. In 10-20 years, when those boys reach marital age, China will be short TENS OF MILLIONS of women. North Korea is the obvious choice of where Chinese men will be looking. If bride importation were to continue for more than a generation, North Korea will become a de facto vassal of China (if it isn’t already).
- China’s first test as “guarantor of East Asian security” came in 2007, and their utter failure was punctuated with an atomic bomb. Say what you will about America, but at least they kept Taiwan, S. Korea and Japan from going nuclear.If this test is a sign of things to come, we can expect China to fail as a stabilizing force.
- Sidenote: I once met Mr. Brzezinski. As you might expect, he comes off as very intelligent. He’s also quite warm, until the conversation turns towards communists. Then the old Cold Warrior has ice in his veins.
“China will be short TENS OF MILLIONS of women. North Korea is the obvious choice of where Chinese men will be looking. ”
Granfalloon,
… or you can fill their lives with anime, pornographic comic books and other diversions and they may lose all interest in the opposite sex like a lot of men in Japan!
“- Japan’s military is nothing to sneeze at. It would not take long at all to develop into something that could rival China’s military. A declining US, even it wanted to, wouldn’t be able to stop this from happening.”
That means they can take over Korea if they wanted to.
#9
HAHAHAHAHA!!
Good joke.
Granfalloon, all excellent points and I was thinking many of the same things myself.
An ex-coworker of mine is in the air force reserves and he said that Japan’s air force is vastly superior to Korea’s, especially when it comes to missile, radar, and jamming technology. He said that without American support Japan could gain air supremacy over South Korea in 30 minutes. (Yes, he’s Korean).
Japan’s navy (or Maritime Self-Defense Force) is also one of the largest in the world, and its equipment blows away anything SK has. Enomoseki, Japan may not want to, or ultimately be able to conquer Korea, but its military is still one of the most formidable in the world, all on just 1% of GDP — imagine what they could do if they spent 3 or 4% of GDP.
Actually, no. In order for japan to invade korea, they would need millions of army. Korean land based army is one of the most formidable forces in the world. What you don’t think Korea is gonna sit on their ass and suck their thumb? Nope. If anything, those koreans would want japan to invade them so they have the excuse to kill them. I guess finally letting out their steam after facing humility by imperial japan.
People keep saying “japan could conquer korea” has no idea about modern warfare. This is not 20th century. You can’t just steamroll through a nation nowdays without losing thousands of soldiers. ROKN might not be formidable compared to JSDF navy, their navy still consist of impressive anti-submarine frigates, and their KD-III program is no joke.
When push comes to shove, if japan invades korea, japan better prepare to lose millions of their people. Korea does not fuck around. They showed what they are capable of in Vietnam War.
Cheers
No one is saying Japan will or can (at least in its current state) conquer Korea — and what would be the use? They’re ancient enemies but they do have shared interests in keeping out of China’s grasp/orbit. Your bluster about beating back an imaginary Japanese invasion is all fine and well… but let’s start by not getting bitch-slapped by NK shells/bombings and Chinese fishermen.
Bitch slapped? LOL, interesting use of words when NK fired around more than 100 shells and only damaged civilians buildings.
You can’t defend against raining metals. It’s a fact. North Korea threw a cheap shot and provoked SK army to strike back, which they did.
Chinese fishermen? Irreverent. Try harder next time.
China has been cock slapping japan and JSDF maritime patrol with their fishermen also. What, you don’t know it happened. Well, it did. It’s not like South Korea want to provoke china politically by firing a god damn shell on those idiot fishermen. But they did warn Beijing and now South Korea decided to use more force and arm those maritime patrol officers with weapons and live ammunition instead of gas gun and night sticks.
Your imagination of japan successfully invading Korea is a good joke. I needed some entertainment at this hour.
I never introduced the idea or raised the possibility of a Japanese invasion – I think you or #9 did. No one’s invading anyone in NE Asia — yet. It’s just a fact that as much as Korea has prospered and grown, its neighbors are still much more powerful.
Please face up to reality — a greater and more imminent threat (and this is Zbigniew Brzezinski’s point) is a Korea increasingly being subjected to China’s whims. You know, Finlandization once American power wanes and its troops scaled back from Asia (as it must one day). Once the alliance with the US is weakened or dissolved, Korea’s on its own. Japan would then be the least of its worries.
While I couldn’t care less about imaginary warfare fantasies between Japan and Korea, keep in mind that the US Marine Corps has ~200,000 in numbers. The USMC is quite capable of taking over a number of countries. They might never win any ‘hearts and minds’ and might be bogged down in guerrilla insurgency forever, but there aren’t a huge number of countries that could stand up to this one corps. The JDF has 300,000, and in a nation of 127m where people desire job security I’d guess they can be somewhat picky about whom they select to serve. I’d also guess there’s not much the USMC has that the JDF doesn’t. So, while many may stress Japan’s “small” military I’d suggest one think about what one of the world’s most modern militaries of 300,000 could potentially do.
This article is nothing but fear mongering. China only wants American forces out of East Asia entirely. China is not going to start an East Asian military domination once US pulls out entirely.
Which is why I said if US weakens, then Japan will most likely nullify the Constitution and revert JSDF into legitimate army. Most of DIET members has been pushing to make this happen, since America’s sphere of influence in East Asia is becoming more and more irrelevant as time pass by.
South Korea? They could care less about china’s growing sphere of influence. Most likely, they would care more about North Korea situation than china taking over the East Asian sphere of influence. Korean Peninsula has always been in the sphere of Chinese influence since 17th century and Russian influence in late 19th century (for short period of time), so it makes no difference to them since both China and Russia are no longer considered communist nations.
Japan in other hand, won’t accept Chinese influence because they have their pride and has always tried to alienate Chinese influence and Japan will be all alone to fight against the Chinese influence. Their best bet? Make South Korea join with them, but most likely that is not going to happen.
Chinese are the South Koreans least of worry. They actually could care less about it. They are more focused in North Korean issue. And Wikileaks did release a report about China want South Korea to unify the Korean Peninsula.
A myth, if there ever was one
WK: excellent article, thanks
About Japan (and soon the US) military, question: how all this power may survive the inevitable budget slashing we will face in the future ? Considering the fact every developed nation has aging population problems and an increasing slice of the population depending on welfare handouts that need to be somehow paid, it won’t be long before we will see major cuts in military spending, in the EU it is already happening.
The West and Japan will end up trading their military machine for a few more years of kicking the can down the (corporate&private) welfare road
China is a harsh mistress
If the US ever leaves Japan, all bets are off.
I don’t claim any expertise on this except a few casual friendships with some Japanese guys and a still infant relationship with a Japanese woman, but my impression is exactly the opposite. I’ve never seen such an apolitical, quiet, non-nationalistic, easy-to-scare, apathetic lot as the young ( < 40) Japanese.
Very smart, pleasant, civilised people but "pride", "war", "nationalism" etc. are the last words that spring to mind.
enomoseki,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7O0MFkmpw
Pleas.
Yu Bum Suk… nice link. Watched a couple. That guys is quite funny.
Japan can gain air supremacy over South Korea. Whilst Korea is just getting there share of F15s Japan has domestically produced 100s. Yes Koreas is more updated and etc but still.
Also continuing the arm chair general discussions going. Japan could not occupy Korea due to a lack of large standing army and amphibious force.
BTW obviously if the US falls out of the Asia. Before alliances are made. Without the US telling them not to. Everyones gonna go Nuclear. The great equaliser.
Question for yall. Where would South Korea conduct a nuclear explosion? What would happen if they do a nuke test in the East Sea? underwater or not? Since the NPT would be out the window the CTBT wouldnt matter either. Where could South Korea test a bomb without inciting first strike?
I reckon an underwater test in the East Sea since Japan would be the only corner that is nuke free and Japan themselves have tons of EEZ along there tiny pacific islands to bomb like the French did.
Japan couldn’t even stand three days, before they gave up to the Chinese, when a Chinese fishing boat rammed the Japanese navy. There are three things that Japan does not have, which makes the theory of Japanese military of a formidable force, laughable:
1) Political will.
2) Enough young people to get aggressive and mean.
They can have all the fancy military hardware in the world, if they don’t have the will to fight, forget it.
oops, that’s two things, not “three”.
at cm LOL 3 is the go to number for a list of things aye
cm: I’m pretty sure if Japan felt itself faced with a geopolitical crisis, they could find the political will and get plenty “mean.” Obviously, the Japan of today is not the Japan of the 1930s or the Sengoku Jidai, but a martial tradition like Japan’s doesn’t completely go away, either.
Here’s the third one: Leadership (lack there of).
Fourth one: Fukushima disaster which will on-going for many decades. (too busy with the human and environmental disaster to even think about war).
Sure it is well hidden in the foundation layered guys i see shopping around here
@cm: The only of the three factors that mattered in the fishing boat episode was the political leadership failure of Kan.
Korea has folded just as fast in the face of Chinese aggression, from the garlic trade wars to the latest fishing boat incursions, so I’d keep my nationalism in check on this one if I were Korean.
@32 slim, that’s funny but I never mentioned Korea at all and I was just responding to assertions that Japan can stand up to China, or that Japan is a military threat. Korea would fold just as fast as Japan, once China pressures – especially with the leftist loons in power. Without the US in Asia, there’s going to be only one result – Chinese dominance in Asia. Korea or Japan can ally all they want, economically speaking China is the driving force in Asia.
“cm: I’m pretty sure if Japan felt itself faced with a geopolitical crisis, they could find the political will and get plenty “mean.” Obviously, the Japan of today is not the Japan of the 1930s or the Sengoku Jidai, but a martial tradition like Japan’s doesn’t completely go away, either.”
I doubt that since 24% of their population is old. They’re the most aged society on planet. Old people tend to be peaceful and less war like and less aggressive. They couldn’t muster a societal/economic/political change when they badly needed one, and they are happy to go on as they are. I doubt they will be able to change at all and morph into another military nationalists.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Let’s see how long the Chinese economic miracle continues, and China has other regional rivals besides Korea and Japan, India being the big one. Let’s see how long Russo-Chinese cooperation lasts, too.
#35 I’m hoping you’re right, China’s economic miracle won’t continue but I wouldn’t want to take chances and not have the stability and protection afforded by the US. All those people who want the US out of the way, they’ll be sorry later. In fact, without the US leadership that provide stability to the world, I really do not see any country being able to replace that leadership. Chinese growth, the prosperity of global economy all came about because of the openness of the US.
#25
SK has about 60 F-15K’s (basically the F-15E Strike Eagle) with another ~120 F-16′s as frontline fighters with ~70 F-4′s and ~100 F-5′s for ground attack/support missions. Training/electronic warfare/maintenance are all top-notch. They also have plans for 2 stealth fighters in the future, the KF-X (domestic project) and the F-15SE (in cooperation with the US). The A-50 Golden Eagle (also domestically made) is going to be their future ground attack fighter.
South Korea has one of the largest navies in the world. They maintain about 22 Major Surface Combatants which include 2 Modern Destroyer classes (including 2 Sejong Class Destroyers, based off the fantastic American Arleigh Burke design) and a Helicopter Carrier capable of deploying attack helicopters. They also have about 12 Submarines, all good designs based off the German Type 209/212. Littoral Warfare/Coastal Defense is maintained by a vast fleet of Small Corvettes, Missile Boats, and Submarine Chasers that number over 100.
Other major advantages include advanced anti-ship long-range sea-skimming anti-ship missiles in the form of the SSM-700 and a large Marine Corps.
This is all from memory though I can’t be bothered to verify the numbers here, so by all means you may want to check the details out for yourself….
With all this, any forces invading korean peninsula from sea would make their life completely miserable.
“any forces invading korean peninsula from sea would make their life completely miserable.”
#38 – that is, as long as they are allowed to fight and defend themselves, or asked to fold like a cheap suitcase. What I’ve seen lately, I have to question that commitment. Like I said, nice to have all the toys, but if you don’t have the will to use it when you need to, forget it.
Well, that may be changing.
After that Korean maritime police officer was killed by a Chinese fisherman, Korea may be getting tough.
Last month, Korean maritime police boarded a Chinese fishing vessel illegally operating in Korean waters and beat up the whole crew.
Koreans may be passive at first, but when truly threatened they will fight back fiercely. They’ve always been thus.
Actually, Obama announced that the U.S. will be increasing its military presence in East Asia.
And the U.S. economy is still looking pretty good. (unlike EU’s)
And if the U.S. and EU economies were to collapse, so would China’s.
(China’s GDP growth has slowed significantly, lately.)
Hi long time reader with first post.
If the US were to pull out a lot of factors will begin to surface.
1. The china-Russia axis that was created to deal with US hegemony might weaken. If you look at the history especially with what Russia did to China in the last days of the Qing dynasty. Chinese would have every reason to resent Russia.
2. It is not new territory for Korea to deal with a regional hegemon which is what china is trying to become. Go back to the three kingdom period. Korea has successfully managed to forge alliances to beat back chinese attempts at political domination.
3. I agree that Japan is a formidable force. They could go nuclear overnight and expand their military overnight if they had to. Their military is nothing to sneeze at and for that matter even Korea is no slouch either.
4. China has a lot of issues and stresses. First the protests due to CCP officials lining their pockets with not a shred of responsibility to the people. The lack of rule of law and their shady business dealings that I hear from people who have done business overthere. A conflict on their part could put then over the edge and destabilize the whole country.
I don’t believe, as many seem to, that the US decline will mean American influence disappears overnight. I don’t, however, see how America can maintain naval dominance in the East China Sea. China is ramping up their navy and coastal missile systems, and it’s obviously much easier to have a naval impact on your own doorstep than on the other side of the world. How Japan reacts to this shift of power will be interesting. Korea has stepped up: they’re building a base exactly where they’ll need one (even if It hurts Gloria Steinem’s feelings). Japan has a navy capable of keeping Japan in the game, but China at the moment is the big dog, at least among the locals.
China is the biggest question mark.
I heard that even with the current blistering rate of economic growth, there are plenty of Chinese mad at their government. (lack of freedoms, massive govt corruption, gap between rich/poor, etc.)
If China’s economic growth slowed drastically, there could be real instability in China. (China would be far from being a “stabilizing factor”.)
If you add to that the fact that by 2020 more than 24 million Chinese young men will be unable to find wives, and that Chinese these days are very nationalistic and also a bit xenophobic (having been so encouraged in schools), and the tendency of the Chinese govt to deflect their citizens’ anger toward themselves by shifting the blame to other countries… Well, China becomes a really big question mark.
The U.S. better not leave the region.
I think American got it all wrong, historically China never was strong country and they have never have been control Korean effectively, Chinese and Japanese must have been telling fabricated lies about “Little Korea” to the world. Historically, Chinese were living as slaves of foreign dynasties for last 2,000 years and as for Japanese, they’ve never have been strong until late 19th century. Japan is now on the decline, … there’s higher chance Korea will choose to arm itself with nuclear weapon.
Koreansentry,
that’s what korea has been trying to do. To correct the history that has been twisted by chinese and japanese. But both countries complain that Korea is involved in revisionism. China is the worse offender they are fabricating history and tampering with archeological sites to claim what many consider part of Korean history to be theirs. Unfortunately the history that has been taught up to now has been their version so it is not suprising that the west goes by misinformation like this.
jk6411,
It’s the stupid communist in china that are creating a lot of the problems. They have very little ideological basis to follow rule of law. This causes a lot of instability when people get angry due to corruption. Result is they have to resort to strong arm tactics to get people to shut up. The communist ideology is of a dictatorship in which officials are not held accountable nor do they owe anything to the people so they can enrich themselves without having a check on that. They stir up xenophobic nationalism to deflect attention unfortunately I’ve been attacked by this morons when I express doubts about china. The communist are setting the wrong tone.
There are plenty of pretty good reasons to suspect China’s recent ascent will be short-lived, but no one should count on it. History is littered with politicians and generals who fell from grace by underestimating China. I just finished David Halberstam’s excellent book “The Coldest Winter,” so I know that Douglas MacArthur is one of those generals.
#47,
Yes, the Chinese Commies are the problem.
#48,
No one is underestimating China. (just the opposite, in fact)
My concern is that China may become a de-stabilizing factor in the region, instead of a stabilizing one.
My concern is Korea not willing to stand up to chinese because of corporate interests. I feel that China has been overhyped. I agree with jk6411 China with the way things are now is more of a destabilizing factor than a stabilizing factor.
agree with #43… this is not going to happen any time soon. But if it did happen, I can’t imagine Korea not turning to China. Only because I suspect the world will be turning to China eventually. Also, Japan (as much as Korea) will have to turn to someone if American dominance is depleted to that level. So, I don’t think it will be a question of Japan vs China. It will be a question of China vs the America/Brazil/India/Russia.
#51 we aren’t sure how far China is going to develop. It could just as easily hit a wall. I am not convinced that China is going to become a superpower is a given. They are significant because they are big and they have excelled as a low cost producer but it is not a given that it will move up the value added chain especially with the lack of rule of law and shady dealings complaints. It all hinges on how the CCP wants to deal with this issues will they evolve and adjust or will they try to stop it if it involves easing on their monopoly on power.
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