- According to Yonhap, enforcement in Itaewon of the USFK curfew has been really lax. Two GIs the reporter met in (I’m assuming) Hooker Hill said even if they’re caught breaking curfew, it’s not like it’s a death sentence, so many soldiers are breaking curfew. Another said it wasn’t right to be treated like a criminal every night because of a few criminals, there were naturally soldiers out past curfew, and if there wasn’t a danger of getting caught, he wanted to go out, too. My favorite quote, though, was from an employee of a transgender club who said that since all the clubs and bars have CCTVs now, the GIs clear out if the MPs appear.
- Well, I will say this—at least Kim Jong-un is polite to his elders:
That’s a rather touching photo. I’m not being sarcastic—it is. Sure, the guy is now officially the top dog of one of the last century’s most odious regimes, but on a human level, he’s still a kid who just lost his dad.
- According to the Maeil Gyeongje, stocks are falling fast with talk of a possible coup in North Korea and Chinese cyberspace lighting up with talk—originally posted on a Chinese military affairs website—that China should deploy ground forces to North Korea to prevent a sudden collapse of the North Korean regime. The Maeil Gyeongje also noted Gordon Chang’s piece in NRO, which concluded with this:
What will be China’s first order of business for the new North Korean junta? Beijing has already tried to get Pyongyang to accept the basing of its troops in the portions of North Korea near China, and it’s a safe bet they will renew their attempts to put their forces on Korean soil. So it is not inconceivable that, in the next two or three years, Chinese soldiers and the American military will again be face-to-face across the 155-mile Demilitarized Zone.
China’s troops left Panmunjom in 1994. Soon, it appears, they will be back.
Sounds a bit over-the-top to me, and it is coming from Gordon Chang, but I suppose it’s not out of the range of possibility.
- Speaking of NRO, I thankfully missed this editorial on North Korea:
We have been afraid of provoking Kim, and afraid of China’s reaction. Now it’s time to make them fear us. Rather than wait and watch events unfold, we should exert maximum pressure on the Kim family now. We should conduct military exercises around the peninsula, we should fly over their nuclear sites with stealth aircraft, and we should demonstrate that we can reach out and touch the regime anytime and anywhere. We should freeze the assets of the Kim family wherever they may be. We should shut down Kim’s criminal enterprises by stepping up our patrols of ships that leave the peninsula. We should give our allies in South Korea all the military capability necessary to defend themselves and strike back at the North should they once again be hit.
Woh there, tough guys. I’m all in favor of ignoring North Korea until they do something—either good or bad—that warrants our attention. I’m also pessimistic that North Korea under Kim Jong-un will be any better than it was under his dearly departed dad. But seriously, guys, don’t you think you should give the kid at least the opportunity to f*ck up first before conducting overflights of nuclear sites and positioning carriers off the North Korean coast?
- The South Koreans at Kaesong find themselves in a tough spot, with Seoul telling them not to offer condolences, and North Korean workers asking why they aren’t offering condolences. Companies in Kaesong wish the government would leave the question of condolences up to them.
- Oh, and at the Nautilus Institute, Peter Hayes, Scott Bruce and David von Hippel suggest that Kim Jong-il’s death might offer an opportunity to engage with North Korea. As I’ve expressed before, I’m not particularly interested in “engaging” North Korea until they’ve shown it’s worth our while (which they so far haven’t), but it’s a good read anyway (HT to Rob York)
{ 34 comments… read them below or add one }
There will have some engagement with Kim Jong Un, if for no other reason than to get it over with. I wouldn’t caution against engagement, just with expecting any better results.
I am wondering why Robert assumes that the GIs interviewed for the article were anywhere near Hooker Hill? Geographically speaking, it makes up a pretty small percentage of the geographical area of Itaewon. And there are a lot of other places GIs hang out. Did Robert perhaps get this information from two college students at Helios?
Once again, the Korean media makes much ado about nothing. From when the curfew was first put in place under General LaPorte in 2001 clear up to when it was repealed by General Sharp a year or so ago, there were ALWAYS GI’s going out or staying out in violation of the curfew. Such violations were non-stories then, just as they are now, unless there is some illegal activity alleged. After all, do we hear of any businesses denying a GI a beer if it is after curfew? Nah…we only hear them complain about the curfew if a GI causes a problem in their establishment after curfew.
Depending on the Soldier’s chain of command, curfew violations alone are met with various options, most likely non-judicially (which can carry punishments as high as 45 days restriction, reduction in rank, 45 days extra duty, and potentially the loss of a 1/2 month’s wages for two months, and any combination thereof).
The “GIs” that Yonhap spoke with are ignorant..period. They represent the small percentage of Soldiers who defy authority. They have always existed, and they always will.
Yawwwwwwwwnnnnn.
In this case, no, I didn’t get it from two college girls at Helios (they asked me to say hi, BTW). I got it from, oddly enough, the article:
출입금지 업소가 밀집된 골목에서 만난 미군 L씨와 J씨는 “가끔 취해서 술집에서 늦게 나오지만 운 좋게 안 걸리거나 숨으면 된다”며 “뭐 걸린다고 죽는 것도 아니다 보니 통금을 어기는 애들이 많다”고 말했다.
Sounds like Hooker Hill, no?
Well, Robert, you got me there. Now, if there’s an English translation of said article, I would be happy to agree with you.
My ability to translate from Korean to English is virtually non-existent, but there is no specific “area” that is off-limits to GIs in Itaewon. They can walk freely up or down any street, hang out at any street corner; however, the implication is that they were likely in the vicinity of some off-limits establishments. Be careful, though, as there are a significany number of off limits establishments outside of Hooker Hill (although the largest cluster of them are the juicy bars of Hooker Hill). Here’s a link, although it’s not the most recent – for others’ edification:
http://www.usfk.mil/usfk/Uploads/330/USAGYItaewonMaps1Sep2010.pdf
In parting – I find it amusing that you think about the college-age girls and the Helios thing is so funny…by your own account, you have now met them at least twice (both within the past few weeks), which already outnumbers me (my singular meeting was in 2003) – so, you’re certainly much more acquainted with them than I. But hey…to each his own.
Transgender clubs with CCTV – scary.
The photo you posted Robert, its rare (up til now) to see JongUn’s uncle (standing behind him in the photo) in FULL generals uniform.
I like the editorial – perhaps NK does think SK is afraid because of big daddy China. SK has to show NK that it can reach out and touch the regime anytime and anywhere.
SK is only delaying the day and time when the won and Korean shares will plummet significantly due to something serious coming out of NK.
Might as well make the date and time ourselves.
a couple of things…
that photo is pretty encouraging. it’s amazing what a simple snapshot can do to a person’s (mine) perception. i kinda feel bad for the kid now and hope the best for him and his country. i just can’t imagine what must be going on behind the scenes in north korea. kju can’t possibly be in control and there is a strong possibility of him getting whacked by god knows who. whatever happens i hope china stays out of it but knowing those cancerous chicoms, i have little hope.
the kospi is done for awhile. it will see 1400, or even 1200, before it ever sniffs 2000 again. of course if the ecb or bernanke starts printing money out of thin air, all bets are off. btw, why would any sane investor pay almost a grand for a single common share of samsung electronics? is the short selling ban still in effect in korea? man, i’d love to short the hell out of that.
I have absolutely no sympathy for the new dictator in NK. I hope he fails in carrying on that crime family’s legacy of oppressing so many others who lost their parents, siblings, children and friends not to old age, sickness or accident, but to Kim Jong-un’s father’s and grandfather’s quench for power and control.
Remembering Kim Jong-Il’s Victims by Ira Stoll
Ri Hyon Ok was a 33-year-old mother of three who was publicly executed by the North Korean government on June 16, 2009, for the crime of giving away bibles. Her husband and children were banished to North Korea’s vast political prison system the day after she was killed.
Son Jong Nam was tortured by North Korean authorities and imprisoned for three years, from 2001 to 2004. He lost 70 pounds while in captivity and emerged walking with a permanent limp. Arrested again in 2006 after police found bibles at his home, he was sentenced to death by firing squad.
Soon Ok Lee is a survivor of the Kaechon prison camp. She testified on April 30, 2003, at a hearing of the House Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Human Rights that women political prisoners in North Korea “were unconditionally forced to abort because the unborn baby was also considered a criminal by law.” She testified, “Women in their 8th or 9th month of pregnancy had salt solutions injected into their wombs to induce abortion. In spite of these brutal efforts, some babies were born alive, in which case the prison guards mercilessly killed the infants by squeezing their necks in front of their mothers. The dead babies were taken away for biological tests. If a mother pleaded for the life of her baby, she was publicly executed under the charge of ‘impure ideology.’”
Kang Chol Hwan is another survivor of the North Korean prison camps. He met with George W. Bush in the Oval Office in June 2005. He’s spoken of how when one prisoner was hanged, “thousands of prisoners were made to form one line and passed by the hanged person and threw stones at the dead body, shouting, ‘Let’s get rid of the people’s traitor.’ And because of throwing so many stones by thousands of prisoners, the faces and muscles were all torn up. Some women with weak heart, they didn’t obey and didn’t throw the stone. Then the officers condemned them, saying your ideology is doubtful. And beat them.”
I guess countries who rely on heavy industry, construction and international trade in electronic products get hit the hardest, when there is economic problems.
Add on NK problems, and I can see the KOSPI sliding more.
They are the people NKoreans should be crying for (and for themselves), not KJI. maybe they are?
Despite KJI being dictator and enemy of Seoul, he was leader of North Korea so paying the respect for dead leader is usual, Washington sent condolences and paid respect to Japan when emperor Hirohito died.
As for the U.S GIs breaking the curfew, I would blame the S.Korea and U.S for being too relaxed on controlling bad behaving American soldiers. If Korean GI broke the curfew then he would faced harsh punishment. Seoul need to take these useless U.S GIs out of country.
I have zero sympathy for the NK ruling regime, especially the new dictator Kim Jong-eun. Propaganda or not, he was given the credit inside NK for masterminding the sinking of the Chonan and for shelling of YeonPyeong.
Although it’s not mentioned here, the killing in Gangnam of a German-Korean woman by her German husband, on Christmas eve no less, would certainly fall under “odds & ends” (or at least odd and unfortunate end). Said German husband then hochtailed it back to Deutschland where he confessed. Kind of surprised it hasn’t been a bigger headline.
<a href="http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/html/115/2946115.html
To Koreansentry @#11 –
You wrote: “Seoul need to take these useless U.S GIs out of country.”
Perhaps the US military presence in South Korea is indeed becoming more and more of a mere convenience than a necessity. After all, The Soviet Union is now gone, and Communist China is less likely to militarily support their upstart little brother than they were in the past. But one small problem remains. South Koreans and their government remain unwilling to train and fund a military capable of doing anything much more than finishing at best in a tie with North Korea in the event of conventional hostilities. As it is, with a US military presence, South Korea has been untouched basically for five decades – a luxury that has allowed them to develop a bustling economy. And with an American presence these days, North Korea is not inclined to conduct any provocations that might cause US casualties, because they know full well that serious.
But everyone knows North Korea can sink a South Korean ship or shell a South Korean island and South Korea will get very very upset, and maybe stop free rice, construction, and medical aid shipments, and reduce involvement at the Kaesong Industrial Complex to the North for a whole six to eight months….ooooooh.
South Korea need only say, “President Obama, we would like US military forces withdrawn from South Korea.” and provide a deadline, and it would happen pretty much immediately. Something tells me what you consider “useless” and what every ROK Presidential administration since that of President Rhee consider “useless” are not the same. But then again, leaders of governments do have a bit more educated view of necessity than perhaps you do…Their view of necessity is perhaps not influenced by prejudice or xenophobia…but that’s just a guess.
Oops…should have said, “And with an American presence these days, North Korea is not inclined to conduct any provocations that might cause US casualties, because they know full well that serious repercussions (unlike South Korean “repercussions”) would result.
Re #13, I should have written .. the “alleged” killing ..
I agree with a lot of that National Review editorial, with the huge exception that I would prefer to see non-military movements against North Korea. Of course, I don’t know why South Korea hasn’t been doing more of that that all along.
Mr. Koehler has a good point. We should wait and see if KJU is going to play the part that his father has seemingly written for him before any extreme measures are taken. After all, he was educated in Switzerland, right? Maybe he’ll pull a 180 and start up some kinda glasnost thing or something. Won’t hold my breath, though.
The kid is a grown-up man in his late 20′s
Sorry if kinda chuckled when i’ve read this comment, why exactly a Swiss expensive education should make him somehow more enlightened ? Some of the shittiest Afircan dictators were Swiss educated. The fact he may have learned to love Western consumerism will not make him any more likely to ignite a glasnost process from which, as far as things are right now, the Kim family would have everything to loose.
Consumer goods is the only thing third-worlders want from the West, everything else (democracy, equality etc.) they tend not to care much about.
“The kid is a grown-up man in his late 20′s”
Nowadays, there aren’t too many guys in their late 20′s that I’d call grown-up men.
To Seth Gecko –
….especially North Korean men raised in a sheltered totalitarian state…..hell, South Korean men, too, for that matter.
In this case, I’d say it the actual education would not have had as much impact as access to information, especially information about how his country is perceived by the Western world, and how far behind North Korea is. I would think that would create quite a different outcome than had he been educated in North Korea, or even China.
Still, I don’t expect any surprises. That’s what I meant when I wrote “won’t hold my breath, though.”
“We should wait and see if KJU is going to play the part that his father has seemingly written for him before any extreme measures are taken.”
Like we did with Bashar al-Assad? How did that turn out?
1948 – We should wait and see if this Kim Il Sung guy will really be an ally to the Soviets and Red China, or a friend to South Korea.
1994 – We should wait and see if Kim Jong Il will be the isolationist once he is in power, or perhaps be a friend to South Korea.
2011 – We should wait and see whether this punk kid raised in an isolationist regime by one of history’s most repressive dictators will be like his father, or perhaps a friend to South Korea.
Maybe it’s just me….but is there a pattern here?
Or American ones:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576146321725889448.html
The following is my estimate on surrounding countries about Chinese occupation of NK:
1)US: Contrary to most Koreans, they still remember Korean War, the US will welcome Chinese occupation of NK. It stabilizes the region.
2)Japan: ditto
3)China: loves it. wants it. Thinking about all NK women they can have.
4)Russia: Don’t like it but does nothing.
But..
5)SK:hates it so much so that there may be some generals who will move into NK as the Chinese troops move in. This could bring a military coup in SK and several assassinations/riots. Both conservatives and the Commies will rise together to fight the Chinese. A big national change which may include cessation of relation with the US, Japan and China. SK may become another NK to fight everyone. China first and others later. A secret para-military organization may arise to assassinate Chinese officials.
A slow but a steady campaign to change SK people’s view on this issue is necessary. A media, TV mostly, programs which talks about this eventuality and why this is not such a bad news for SKs.
However, no matter what government/big corporations tries to do, SK people may rise up anyway. This has to do with SK people’s distrust for foreigners and some of it is justified. Basically, Chinese occupation of NK will eventually lead to absorption of SK by China.
Maybe the US should oppose China on this strongly. But Obama won’t. The Dems are isolationists at heart.
A critical juncture in Korea-US relationship.
Obama does not want to abandon the win-win economy of China and the US and not only allow but welcome the Chinese occupation of NK.
Obama may be making a big mistake, not only for SK but for the US as well. Chinese occupation of NK will only accelerate SK’s leaning toward China. Expect the whole SK to join the Great Chinese Empire.
The Chinese occupation of NK is such a great event that it will re-shuffle SK people’s ideology. There will be no longer the Conservative and the Progressive. No longer pro-NK and anti-NK. No longer the young and the old. No longer pro-America and anti-America.
There will only be two factions: pro-Chinese and anti-Chinese.
wiessej,
Yep. As I said before, same shit, different chromosomal split.
RolyPoly, have you thought about science fiction screenwriting?
#30,
I know you mean that as an insult, but I’d actually like to watch that movie.
The Great Wall reached to Pyongyang?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Qin_empire_210_BCE.png
The PRC’s shamelessly fabricated history of China to swallow NK.
PRC, dissembling harlot, thous art false in all,
And art confederate with a damned pack
To make a loathsome abject scorn of the world.
Did you miss the discussion of Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama’s “five wars”? I wouldn’t describe that as isolationist. But I do agree that the Democrats of today would not be willing to commit US power toward conflict with a real power like China.
I still maintain we won’t need to worry all that much about what Obama would do, what with him being on his way out of office and all.
To Brendon at #33 –
You wrote: “I still maintain we won’t need to worry all that much about what Obama would do, what with him being on his way out of office and all.”
We can only hope. In American history, there have been Presidents who were generally great leaders who made monumentally stupid decisions (arguably guys like Nixon or LBJ), great leaders who made great decisions (I like Reagan for this category – although he made some not-so-good decisions too), and poor leaders who made poor decisions (guys like Carter).
I honestly believe that when all is said and done, historians will look upon President Obama as having fallen into the category of poor leaders making bad decisions (maybe he and Carter will go fishing together). He was a smart guy who had no real leadership qualities, and he took the reins of a nation as a sort of Jackie Robinson of sorts. But unlike Jackie Robinson, he is not an All-Star or league MVP, and he certainly won’t end up in US History’s Hall of Fame.
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