Now that the dust is settling in the by-election, time to make the political calculation.
Winner – Park Won-Soon: Obviously, the man won. Although he was a significant figure in civic organizations, to the general public he was a virtual unknown. Now he won a race that involves the greatest number of voters other than the presidential election. The future is bright for him.
Loser – Na Gyeong-Won: And also obviously, the lady lost. She even lost in her own district of Joong-Gu [중구]. I will be very impressed if she could recover from the damage she took in this election. Plenty of very smart politicians never did.
Winner - Ahn Chul-Soo: Probably the biggest winner of this entire episode. Politics for the next year will revolve around him. Not much more needs to be said about him at this point.
Loser – Park Geun-Hye: Also obvious. Even her place within the GNP is not secure anymore. Which creates our unlikeliest winner…
Winner - Lee Myeong-Bak: Really? After an election that essentially served as a referendum on his presidency? But this election hardly damaged his stature any more than before, and now he can mobilize his own faction within the GNP as a meaningful force once again. This actually puts him at a better situation than…
Loser – Sohn Hak-Gyu: His grip on his party was already somewhat tenuous given his history as a former GNP member, and the fact that an independent candidate brushed his party aside cannot help. But it is not all bad news for Sohn, because he at least demonstrated some level of leadership by avoiding the progressive infighting. Which is more than one can say for…
Super Loser – Chung Dong-Yeong: Chung completely lost what little influence he has had over the Democratic Party. His capital was significantly diminished at the Democratic Party primaries stage, where his favored candidate Chun Jeong-Bae lost to Park Yeong-Seon (who went on to lose to Park Won-Soon in the overall progressive primary.)
Push – Moon Jae-In: Moon lost the Busan Dong-Gu race, but few progressives realistically expected a win in that race. The progressive support for Moon is still right up there with Ahn Chul-Soo. Next few months will be a very important period for him.
{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }
Spot on across the board!
And recent polling confirms that increasing numbers of Koreans approve of 2MB, and that a solid plurality nonetheless intend to vote for the opposition in next year’s presidential election:
http://asaninst.org/eng/publications/board_read.php?num=495&page=1&type=report&keyfield=&key=
Plus ca change, man, plus ca change!
DLB
Couldn’t we just collapse both of these and extrapolate out and say the whole Democratic Party are losers?
For according to the Chosun Ilbo:
Or to go even bigger, perhaps a loser in all this the current two-party structure currently in place in the ROK:
But whatever way we cut it, I suppose the least we can say is that we’re all in for some exciting times. Hold on to your butts!
Shit. Wrong link. The one below is the right one:
http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/10/26/2011102601607.html
조선일보 would certainly love to say that
But I think not. Sure, on a smaller scale, one can say the Dems lost to the non-affiliated progressives. But no one seriously expects that the Dems will be shut out in a progressive victory. Park Won-Soon himself said that he owes a debt to the Democratic Party. All the big horses on the progressive side (Moon Jae-In chief among them) are pulling for the progressive consolidation, and that consolidation will inevitably center around the Dems.
For Dems, it is pretty much going from the driver’s seat to the passenger’s seat, but not out of the car. GNP, on the other hand, is about to be the squeezy man.
North Korea, arguably another winner here, is going to sit on its hands until it gets a pliable ROK government again.
Nice analysis TK.
I agree, nice analysis TK.
“Winner – Lee Myeong-Bak: Really? After an election that essentially served as a referendum on his presidency? But this election hardly damaged his stature any more than before, and now he can mobilize his own faction within the GNP as a meaningful force once again. This actually puts him at a better situation than…”
Really?? I always appreciate the fresh and novel perspective, but I really don’t see 2MB benefiting from this election. I suspect if the Han Nara Dang fails to retain power in the Blue House, more than a few interesting things will be unearthed by the Prosecutor’s Office.
Remember how DJ benefited by having Roh assume his coffice for five years? Lots of dirt can be swept under the carpet if your successor is from the same party.
Remember the BBK video that contradicted 2MB’s claims he held no stock in the fiasco right before presidential election day? MB had to immediately reverse himself and pledge that he would give his entire wealth, save his house, to society if elected. Well, last I heard his people are still working on some kind of trust fund, but no actual donation yet.
Should a non-conservative occupy the Blue House from 2013, Lee will certainly be held to task regarding his earlier donation pledge — and quite possibly some hidden funny business may be revealed. Not that Lee is significantly more corrupt than his predecessors, but it really helps getting away with shenanigans if your successor is an ally. This past week’s elections did nothing to further Pres. Lee’s chances of pulling that off.
Very happy to see that Park Geun-hye is a LOSER!! hahahaha
also very happy to see Lee, Myung-bak is a winner. Good on the voters!
Mr. Coyner — my sense is that PGH is not a friend of LMB. Even if PGH wins, LMB cannot shield himself from all the bad things that you (correctly) mentioned unless LMB himself plays a meaningful part in creating PGH’s presidency. And if LMB’s hand-picked successor (say, Kim Moon-Soo) wins, all the better.
So I’d say LMB is a winner after this election. Now PGH cannot coast into the Blue House on her own strength — she will have to rely on LMB at least in part. This helps LMB.
and now he can mobilize his own faction within the GNP as a meaningful force once again. This actually puts him at a better situation than…
Which is good for 2MB. I believe 2013 will become an interesting year for Korean politics, because if Park Guen-hye or someone who isn’t crazy about 2MB takes over the Blue House, he/she won’t hesitate to investigate him and his cronies for the alleged irregularities that they did before and during his presidency. That and the dismantling of his supposed achievements and legacy.
So might as well have your cronies in a position where your opponents can’t do much.
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