- South Korea will not respond to the shelling by restarting psychological warfare operations. And by “psychological warfare operations,” I mean loudspeaker broadcasts into North Korea, not parking a big American nuclear carrier off the North Korean coast.
- South Korea is boosting troop strength on its West Coast islands and changing rules of engagement to make it easier to respond to attacks.
- In a very interesting piece, Takashi Yokota points to evidence that North Korea’s attack on Yeonpyeong-do was premeditated, and even worse, speculates that Kim Jong-il might be losing control of his military. Selig Harrison floated something similar to NPR a couple of days ago. I don’t usually cite Harrison without following it up with expressions of bewilderment and despair, but I have to admit, I was thinking this myself.
- Not sure if this means anything, but just to throw it out there, one of North Korea’s newer leaders, KNP general staff chief Ri Yong-ho, is also reportedly North Korea’s leading artillery specialist. Also worth noting about Ri: “Experts believe Ri, who rose quickly as a powerful member of the military leadership, will be given a key role in the process of Kim Jong-un taking control of the military. Ri was promoted from four-star general to vice marshal, and made a Politburo presidium member and, along with Kim Jong-un, a vice chairman of the WPK Central Military Commission.” Probably means nothing, but it’s fun to play Kremlinologist.
- Hey, at least Mike Chinoy reads you.
- And on the LA KoreaTown front…
- Not sure how much of this I believe, but Radio Free Asia — citing multiple sources inside North Korea — is reporting that the South Korean counterfire really rattled North Korea’s gun crews, leading to casualties, a mass bug-out and arrest. Also worth noting is that word of the battle spread quickly in North Korea, almost in real time.
- A poll by the Munhwa Ilbo reveals that 44% of South Koreans want a strong military response, even if this leads to escalation. 33.5% want escalation to be prevented, even if a military response is employed, while 16.2% want a diplomatic/economic response only. Interestingly, 46% of Americans likely American voters believe the United States should help South Korea if it is attacked, although only 33% said additional troops should be deployed in the event of an attack. Oh, and 68% of Americans likely American voters think war in Korea is coming soon.
- UPDATE: If you’re a Twitter guy, Steve Herman of VOA has been doing a stellar job tweeting the events in the West Sea.
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Take cover! More shells falling on Yunpyong-do.
Reports say the sounds of “two gunshots 포성” heard near the island
No indication on what it is though
They’re saying the explosions were in North Korea
YTN’s saying that perhaps two shells fell on the North Korean side of the NLL, but no other details are available. The sound of the explosion was “small,” according to reporters on the scene.
Wanna thank Robert and the crew for the frequent updates these last few days. I’ve been on TMH more than any other page lately.
I suppose 68% of Americans think war in Korea is coming soon because CNN is playing this up as much as possible to make it seem as if war were on the brink.
That’s a relief! The fishes can’t take much more of this.
There saying it was probably a North Korean military exercise. 20 shells (not from the coastal batteries) were fired and they landed on the North side of the NLL. Residents of Yeongpyeong Island are being evacuated. Does not look like an attack
Cheeky buggers.
Smoke was seen rising from Kaemori in North Korea from today’s training (?):
http://news.naver.com/main/hotissue/read.nhn?mid=hot&sid1=100&cid=601821&iid=275726&oid=008&aid=0002435910&ptype=011
These are the fixins for mishaps… and worse.
Seoul better pay up double quickly quick before the Norks send ‘em another past due notice.
I actually thought for a minute that maybe the South was taking some retaliatory action itself…
I concur with valkilmer. I’ve been glued to the Marmot’s Hole throughout the whole thing. Well done, Mr. Koehler.
On the opinion-polling front, a whopping 29% of Koreans said LMB’s response was appropriate—ha!—although it should be noted that the actual wording in the report was “a mere 29%.”
(FYI, the sampling size is 700.)
Link (in Korean):
http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/art_print.html?artid=201011251743111
supplies are on their way to YeongPyeong-do
great pic of police water-craft taking supplies –
http://img.izismile.com/img/img3/20101125/640/daily_stare_get_640_08.jpg
sorry – one more funny pic –
KJI and his son –
http://izismile.com/2010/11/25/daily_picdump_136_pics-71.html
The timing and location of today’s artillery drill suggest the North was playing games with us. Aware that the world’s attention is focused on Yeongpyeong Island, they were probably trying to rattle a few nerves and perhaps test how trigger-happy the South is.
It’s also now apparent that KJI is not looking for a war. He spent yesterday inspecting dance studios and housing projects and today he visited a glass shop and a mineral water facility. I predict there will be no additional provocations for a few months.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90851/7211605.html
RE Selig Harrison on NPR
On the PBS Newshour recently, Ambassador Christopher Hill said something similiar. He believes that one of the problems with negotiating with the DPRK is that we do not know whether the DPRK chain of command is in fact absolutely unified under KJI. He therefore believes that negotiating with the DPRK is problematic and that it is more important to reassure the ROK and try to get China to constrain DPRK bahavior.
This possibility may indeed have some circulation in our governments.
…
CHRISTOPHER HILL: Well, I agree that we need a peace process.
Our problem right now is, we don’t have an interlocutor. It’s very unclear what’s going on in North Korea. Clearly, they have a succession crisis. They have an army that’s basically a law unto itself, that’s probably not taking civilian direction at this point. So, I think we have problems finding someone over there to talk to.
And, in the meantime, I think it is very important that we work very closely with the South Koreans. I don’t think we want to be in a position of somehow egging them on, nor do we want to be seen as — as pulling them back. I think what we want to be doing is in very, very serious consultations. And I think President Obama is doing just that with President Lee Myung-Bak.
JIM LEHRER: You mean egging on the South Koreans? Is that what you — or the North Koreans?
CHRISTOPHER HILL: That is correct. That is correct.
JIM LEHRER: Yes. Yes.
CHRISTOPHER HILL: No, I’m referring to the South Koreans, because there are two ways you can go wrong with the South Koreans. One is to stand thousands of miles away and suggest there needs to be a much firmer response than they’re making. And the second is to somehow, you know, advocate that they do less.
JIM LEHRER: Yes. Do you agree with Mr. Sigal that the only danger here, potential danger, immediate danger, is that the North Korea — if the South Korean exercise with the U.S. gets too close to South Korea — I mean, to North Korea, they could react, and this thing could have another tit for tat? Is that possible?
CHRISTOPHER HILL: I agree. Yes, I agree. I think one has to be careful in these exercises. You don’t want them to be needlessly provocative.
But, at the same time, the North Koreans are pretty used to us having exercises. And I think the worst thing we could do is not have an exercise and suggest that we’re somehow intimidated by what has really become a pattern of even more outrageous behavior on the part of the North Koreans.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/july-dec10/northkorea2_11-24.html
Out of all the chaos at that moment, comes courageous stories like these marines who risked their lives to save 20 crying pre-school children and their teacher who were stranded in their school yard’s playground, as missiles flew over them, and the artillary barrage bombarded around them.
http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/11/26/2010112601026.html
Can you just imagine what would be happening now in South Korea, if those South Korean children were blown to bits by North Korean guns? Without the marines who did a heroic job to save peoples’ lives, there would have been far more dead South Korean civilians. I think the Korean marines acquitted themselves well, despite the circumstances that they were under with poor leadership in Seoul.
According to Xinhuanet.com [a Chinese newspaper],
http://bit.ly/eaIwVX (the news article in English)
“China opposes any military acts in its exclusive economic zone without permission, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Friday, days before a joint military exercise between United States and Republic of Korea (ROK) on the Yellow Sea.” (26 Nov.)
As a South Korean, I wonder if SK army with the US does a joint military exercise in (China’s) “exclusive” economic zone. Really..?
I don’t know much about military activities, but I do remember this kind of “regular” joint exercises done on the Yellow Sea for years. At least this is my belief that SK has never done any (joint or alone) militant exercise in any country’s “exclusive” economic zone.
South Korean batteries shot back 80 shots. Joongang Ilbo is reporting that South Korean military have intercepted radio messages by North Koreans that says the North Koreans were getting pulverized during the South Korean counter attack by three K-9 self propelled guns. The North Koreans were reporter heavy casualties. These guns are capable of autoloading which means they could have shot far more shots, but the unit lacked an ammunition carrying vehicle. The ammos had to be carried manually over by the exposed marines themselves (causing two dead and 14 wounded), which reduced their effectiveness but still caused a lot of damage to the North Koreans.
That’s what some reports are saying. I am not sure how accurate they are, if they’re propaganda or not. Or they maybe spreading these stories to bring up South Korean morale and to downplay North Korea’s military victories. I am not so sure.
Correction:
“In the radio interception, the North Koreans were reporting heavy casualties”.
Thanks for the translations, cm!
Other than N Korea’s recent aggressive behavior, what evidence does Harrison, Hill, or Yokota have to claim that KJI or son is unable to control the military? So this would be like the Japanese military invading Manchuria in the early 30s without the Japanese govt knowing about it. That doesn’t jibe at all with the whole cult of personality built around KJI and son. There are rumors of an attempted rebellion by some units in Hamhung province in the late 90s – the region the govt cut off grain to during the height of the famine. It was put down.
All dictators need the support of their military, sure. This latest aggression is more likely a bone thrown by Kim to appease some hard liners – just like China’s aggression into the S China Sea in the mid 90s during a similar succession. To get the military’s support, the new leader (or his father) may have to implement policies preferred by politically powerful factions.
According to Yonhap, South Korea sent a bunch of propaganda leaflets over the border after the initial attack.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/11/26/0200000000AEN20101126010000320.HTML
Well it seems that S. Korea will be spending about US$260 mil next year to beef up its defenses in Yongpyeong-do.
Along with a newer artillery detection radar, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, aerostats(blimps with downward looking radar), additional K-9 guns, and Spike missiles are on the shopping list.
http://news.naver.com/main/hotissue/read.nhn?mid=hot&sid1=100&cid=601821&iid=4509426&oid=023&aid=0002209375&ptype=011
Pat Buchanon weighs in here:
http://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2010/11/25/why-are-we-still-in-korea-2/
Sorry, ‘BuchanAn’
Re on the LA KoreaTown front…
‘But the attack hit close to home for 18-year-old college student Kevin Lee, who said his friends who have Korean citizenship fear they could be called up to fight if a war ever breaks out between North and South.’
In 1951 it was people who had US citenship who rightly feared they would be called up. Many were. Even In 1951 it was people who had US citizenship who rightly feared they would be called up. Many were. Even the US Marine Corps drafted.
Georgem, that would make them kyopos just like you, no?
pawikirogii, 1951 – that would have been my father. And he was drafted. But the fear factor would be the same, yeah?
Just got done watching a recent edition of 100분 토론 (100 Minute Debate/Forum) where a six person panel was discussing the recent DPRK attack. While the debate was largely civil and hardly brought up anything new (although Grand National Party assemblyman 김동성 said something interesting about looking into a China-ROK FTA so that Korea could possibly create more goodwill if not leverage with China in order to create a rift between them and the DPRK) I was struck by moderator 박광온’s closing statement.
To paraphrase, he recounted a question that a Japanese colleague of his once asked about how the people of South Korea are able to live next door to a country like North Korea. In response Mr. Park said that just like the Japanese are able to get on with life with earthquakes, South Koreans are able to get on with life with the crazies to the North. But that there was one distinction, however. Whereas earthquakes in Japan are a natural occurring phenomenon, largely outside the control of human beings, the issue of North Korea is eminently solvable by humans themselves.
Whatever disagreements concerned people have over what do about the North, it should be remembered that since the solution is in our hands, we have the utmost obligation to exercise that agency responsibly.
Finally, to those who thought I was off base in calling for a formal end to the Korean War to solve this issue over the long term: You must remember your Walter Lippmann. To wit:
Quoted in Fredrik Logevall’s Choosing War: The Lost Chance for Peace and the Escalation of the Vietnam War,
p. 36
Well, you could go to Iraq to defend the nation, no? Listen, don’t ridicule folks for being afraid of war because war ain’t no fun. The vast majority of the gung ho types here are in their homes doing nothing for old glory while encouraging others to war.
Well, the Yeonpyeong attack and Cheonan sinking have had an effect on opinion at the Marmot, and probably on many electorates in general. How many Marmoters would now have US forces leave Korea? I remember before the Cheonan there was a post here by Robert saying the US military should leave. Many if not most agreed. The idea probably seems inconceivable now. And this may even have been one of several motives in Pyongyang’s gambit: to make sure that the US stays or reinforces in Korea, and even to help forstall the transfer of wartime operational command. Because without the US military presence Pyongyang loses its best excuse for bad behavior and even its favorite enemy. What’s more it could risk losing Chinese support, since that is aimed in part at avoiding the presence of American troops at its border by maintaining a buffer zone. It may even have been calculated that while the Chinese wouldn’t like the attack on Yeonpyeong, that they really wouldn’t like the US reaction (recall that the Cheonan event did damage to Sino-US relations, especially when the US considered sending an aircraft carrier to into the Yellow Sea).
Before the Cheonan I stated that were I KJI I’d do everything possible to keep USFK in the South. I also said that while I normally would support US troops carefully leaving (for the above-mentioned reasons only), that I felt it necessary for US troops to stay just in case the succession (which I consider doomed, at least in the medium term) were to create a hostile situation where US forces were needed immediately. The Cheonan was sunk soon after. Sorry to go on about myself, but I then switched (since I’m not a politician) and decided that US troops should still leave since their absence would actually make the succession more likely to fail, give more hope for a reformist government, and also help align the US better with China which would have less reason to fear US troops on the Yalu and Amnok, or in the Yellow Sea.
Instead Washinton is sending a carrier to the Yellow Sea with the stated intention of pressuring Beijing into pressuring Pyongyang. And while in some narrow way this could work, it also seems likely to have a wider effect of pushing China and the US further apart, and feeding the dangerous nationalism that has taken root there. It would seem wiser to greatly improve South Korean defences while preparing to move US forces to Japan, from where they could still reach the North. This might be done as a kind of deal whereby China would agree to reign in Pyongyang in exchange for US forces exiting the Peninsula. Admittedly there are problems, such as the South then seeking its own nuclear umbrella (feeling newly exposed to the DPRK), or the Southern electorate waking up, panicking and demanding stronger retaliation. But my main message is that we cannot allow Pyongyang to control our mindset or bully us into accepting their invitation to a low-intensity conflict. Let’s be clear, it would benefit Pyongyang more than the democratic nations.
Don’t believe there’s been a shift of attitude? Just compare Josh Stanton’s opinions, then and now.
In a New Ledger article as recent as April 2010 he advocated that US troops should leave Korea.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/11/opinion/main6386737.shtml
And here’s Josh in The New Ledger on April 19:
Now suddenly Josh is calling for limited strikes against North Korea and secretly arming an insurgency from China! He’s advocating “turning North Korea into Afghanistan.” Now that’s a turnaround! Maybe Pyongyang was right: the Cheonan wasn’t enough, but they’ve done it this time.
http://www.freekorea.us/2010/11/26/before-we-start-bombing-north-korea-lets-try-turning-into-afghanistan/
No wonder they’re popping champagne corks in Pyongyang!
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/11/27/2010112700313.html
And according to the DailyNK extra effort was made to keep the electricity on longer than usual so that everyone could bask in radio and television paeans to the glorious victory led by a certain Youth Captain Kim Jong Eun.
“Under the guidance of the Youth Captain’s revolutionary military power we will always be victorious.”
Robin Hedge writes:
You must forgive individuals such as Mr. Stanton and other commentators at the Hole, Mr. Hedge. They’re an excitable bunch.
#34 Actually, I’m in and out of Iraq several times a year.
What is GNP member 김동성 thinking? China is now Korea’s #1 trading partner, and he wants to increase Korean dependence on China further through an FTA? Kim is dreaming if he thinks that Korea will be able to influence China as much as China will influence Korea under an FTA, and the imbalance will grow with every year. The Chinese economy is simply too large and growing too fast for that tactic to work.
Afghanistan sure seems trivial next to the prospects of a second Korean War. East Asia is the center of the world’s economy – Korea’s got to be a core US interest.
Not to me. As I suggested earlier, the dismal performance of ROK forces in the latest encounter, strongly militates in favor of cutting them loose from Uncle Sucker’s apron strings, at least to the extent of withdrawing US boots on the ground and other relatively forward deployed assets. Note that I’m not suggesting US renunciation of its defense commitment – at least at this time. In fact, any withdrawal should be accompanied by other very visible demonstrations of the resolve of the US to further its own interests through military cooperation with ROK. If done right, ROK thereby could be goosed to man up and the NORKS to back down.
The loss of battle sharpness comes from forty years of peace and the last ten years of deprogramming of South Korean military that saw North Korea as a military threat. Not many Koreans really believed that North Korea would outright attack a South Korean territory this day and age, even after the Cheonan incident and plenty of other warning signs. South Korea got caught flat footed, but I don’t think it was due to over reliance on “Uncle Sucker”. Koreans were too used to peace and took the peace for granted, this would have happened with or without Uncle Sam’s presence.
Thanks for the respones, Charles Tilly and Sperwer. Btw Sperwer, I also believe any US troop withdrawal should be accompanied by a strong commitment to ROK defense. The unintuitive part is that, as you understand it seems, the US might protect SKorean and US interests better from Japan… Anyway, Pyongyang seems to have ensured that the US best option is politically infeasible since if Obama even suggested it he would be skewered, and it could even cost him the 2012 election.
Robin:
Barry already has lost the election, so this is a chance for him to exercise some political courage w/out the baggage of electoral expedience.
“Barry already has lost the election,”
–Sperwer
Well, Barry won’t feel too lonely cause he’s got my vote…
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