The Russians examined the data regarding the Cheonan sinking and “while they admitted that there was no possibility that the external blast was caused by anything other than a torpedo, the Russians never said that a torpedo sunk the ship.”
Meanwhile, Russian cheerleaders dance.
{ 31 comments… read them below or add one }
Well, Andrei Lankov was basically right with his prediction again.
It’s a shame really, the farce the conspiracy theorists started is coming to it’s inevitable end.
No level of evidence will meet Chinese or Russian standards. Not the sub captain with his requisition of a torpedo from bureau 39 and notarized lie detector proven confession, not anything.
Congratulations conspiracy theorists, communists, North Korean ideological converts and fools. You will now be ruled by China, Russia, and North Korea. They will kill your sons, poison your daughters and shoot your mothers in the back and you can only blame 2MB and the US.
As I have said for too many years “be carefull what you wish for.” I am sad that that the time is near and many good people will suffer for their ignorance, and complete lack of reasoning and logic. What follows the US will not be as kind, as introspective, as self critical, or as accomdating of your point of view.
Not to worry, you can always manufacture more blame against the US for a quick pick me up. Who would stop you, not us. We are not the Chinese. Better keep your mouth shut about anything bad Chinese or Russian related…
Per: http://www.english.ruvr.ru/2010/06/08/9364262.html
I guess we will have to hear the official Russian version of events later.
P.S. I put the link to Russian cheerleaders in for Robert ^__^
I would just like to give a bit anti-prop to Dr. Konstantin Asmolov of the Korea Centre at the Institute of the Far East who said in the linked article that the Cheonan had been probably hit by friendly fire. “I think it was a tragic accident during war games that cynical politicians are trying to exploit to maximum advantage.” You speak foolishly, Dr. Asmolov.
He had previously spouted this:
Well thanks for your opinion, Dr. Asmolov, but you are not an expert in torpedo attacks. Stick to discussing the system of Military Activity of Koguryo.
We understand already why Russia is unwilling to find North Korea responsible for this crime, so you don’t need to strain to hard to convince us of your conspiracy theories.
This was a foregone conclusion, but will no doubt add fuel to the leftists’ fire. Already, the “alternative” explanation: that the ship sank as a result of a friendly-fire (American) incident is growing.
It’s interesting that the South Korean authorities praised the Russian team, despite their wishy-washy conclusion. More evidence that South Korea is trying to put the whole Cheonan fiasco to pasture as quickly and quietly as possible.
2 hamel and everybody
Well, my first reaction would be not without a touch of a vanity “did not I say so? A number of times? In print?” But it seems that at least privately the Russians came to conclusions which are closer to the SK version then they are willing to admit in public.
As I have said, Russia is awash with conspiracy theories on Cheonan, always aimed at downplaying the likelihood of the NK involvement. Since now a majority of the Russian intellectuals know for sure that all nasty things in the world can only be a result of some US scheming, they do not need to bother about facts. I’ve come across statements like “Of course, it was the Americans who wanted to start a new war, as usual, but changed their mind in the last moment. It is pity that our government, being a bunch of cowards, will never allow our experts to tell the truth about a US torpedo ”. Alas, my colleagues are working hard to make sure that the rumor mill does not stop. I am quite certain they do this not because they are on the government payroll, or because follow some secret orders, but largely of sincere conviction. In the current Russian climate it is politically correct to look for the US nastiness and present all US opponents as helpless victims of the big bully.
BTW, do I consider this crazy? Yes. But this is the reality and no amount of chest-beating will change it.
2 milton
Yes, the SK government wants its public to forget Cheonan. They know that they cannot do much about (frankly, they can do nothing about it). So, the longer the crisis continues, the more obvious their powerlessness becomes. For a while they will do a bit of doomed diplomatic performance, and then will move to more pressing issues of automobile trade and currency rates.
No, the cross-linking of agitprop though different blog fronts (astroturfing) has increased. The idea that the Cheonan was sunk by friendly fire, American mines, German torpedos, sand bars, submarine-ramming (American of course) is complete fiction.
The should read “the belief that…” Of course in no way did I mean to say that there is any possibility that the leftist anti-US, anti-ROK fantasies are true.
You forgot to mention the complicity of the “legitimate” leftist media and NGOs. Notice how the mainstream pols have back off since May 20th. This is because accusing the government of fraud would would necessitate certain legal procedures and they know they have nothing to back up their claims. But the conspiracy theories will continue to fester on the Internet and average people will continue to be duped by the combined efforts of the North Korean government, the Chinese government, and their apologists and 5th columnists in the South.
To clarify this further, if you’re a politician and you have serious doubts about the claims of the final report and believe the government manipulated or planted evidence, those are impeachable offenses. Why haven’t any politicians or NGOs initiated a lawsuit against the government? The answer of course is that they don’t have a case. Even the Russians admitted the report was basically correct, without actually saying so (the SK government warns the Russians have yet to reveal an official position). The headlines read “Russia Says No Evidence to Link the Cheonan with North Korea” but if you read carefully, you’ll notice they use the vacuous phrase “not weighty enough.” The meaning is that the evidence was “weighty” but for whatever reason they don’t want to connect the obvious dots.
An interesting aside: while anti-North Korea demonstrations have been small and geriatric, there hasn’t been any notable “pro-peace” or anti-May 20th Report demonstrations on the left.
Um, could we stop perpetuating the term leftists is subset of conspiracy theorists and go with conspiracy theorists subset of leftists, at least in the context of N.K. + Cheonanham ?
Another interesting aside regarding the Chinese position: notice how the Chinese aren’t accusing the South Koreans of not carrying out a “scientific and objective” investigation, or even hinting at it. In fact, in none of their official statements do they even hint at rejecting/not believing the official results. By not dispatching their own investigative team to South Korea, they either A) accept the findings, but won’t say so publically for obvious political reasons or B) they’re not interested in finding out the truth. Their efforts have shifted entirely to downplaying this incident and making sure that “all parties to bear in mind the overall interests of peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula, exercise calmness and restraint and properly handle relevant issues.“
But you are all missing the point. What is the US suggesting we “do” as opposed to China and Russia? Still, NOTHING. What percentage of Robert Gates’s answer(and LMB’s disappearance from the public eye) is shaped/influenced by the shenanigans played out by the Russians Chinese and yes, the Korean leftists?
What is the US suggesting we “do” as opposed to China and Russia?
Yes, as you said, “nothing.” Well, not exactly nothing in terms of form, but nothing in terms of function—the US might make some gestures for cosmetic purpose to give the impression to their domestic audience that they are taking a harder line (as South Korea did…and then quietly retracted). But the deeper reality, when you go behind the headlines, is that the US, China, SK, and Russia are really all on the same page about what to do with the Cheonan: nothing. Ignore it, let it fade from the public’s imagination, pretend it never happened, go through the motions, and get back to the Six Party Talks where all sides can play a greater role in keeping Pyongyang on life support so as not to upset the perfectly stable and perfectly workable Northeast Asia regional balance. The ultimate long-term goal is to mitigate and delay any inter-Korean conflict (and regional conflict over territorial disputes for that matter) for as long as possible in the hopes that forging stronger economic and cultural ties will magically resolve all security-related issues in the region.
Actually, now that I think about it, from a realpolitik perspective, the Sunshine Policy wasn’t all that bad: Bribe Pyongyang to shut the hell up, let KJI keep propagate his asinine myths about Korean ethnic superiority, while the other countries in the region go about pursuing their materialistic, economic objectives and nation building. Morally, of course, I completely object to the Sunshine policy because it actively supports a regime that is—pardon the cliché—absolutely on par with the Third Reich and Democratic Kampuchea (if I just violated Gowin’s law, then so be it), and throws the North Korean people under the bus. It also does nothing to untangle the regional security dilemma which unfortunately is based on equal parts historical animosity and complete lack of trust among Northeast Asian member states about military intentions. Perhaps when (if) the hub-and-spoke US-centered security architecture is replaced by a dense, robust multilateral security framework (undoubtedly dominated by a more powerful, hegemonic China), historical and territorial disputes are resolved, and differences narrow down to about the same level as those in the EU, then a Sunshine policy might not only be feasible, but desirable to ensure stability and peace. This does little to absolve my moral concerns about supporting one history’s most brutal tyrants, but perhaps if Northeast Asia reaches the level of my fantasy outlined above, then it will be easier to induce Pyongyang to come out from the cold.
Another popular misconception is that all Korean leftists are pro-China. One thing I do not want to see is to drive the North Koreans into the bosom of China.
I think North Korea is pretty much at a point of equi-distance of South Korea and China, i.e. they hate both equally. The sentiment that the North Koreans would rather join with China than to unify *under* the South is recent. However, they are prone to run to China when they feel the hate from the South. It is childish, but that’s the situation.
You *just* figured that out? You must be suffering from a serious case of anti-leftist bias then…
It’s not so much anti-leftist bias as it is a criticism of bad policy. Sunshine created a paradox: yes, you are buying peace and stability, but you’re also strengthening the army whose sole mission is to destroy you. Strategically, the only way for it to really work would be to bribe North Korea to dismantle their army, or at the very least bribe them to stop proliferating arms and developing nuclear capabilities. Israel tried this a few years back. The Norks took the bribe, and kept on selling weapons to Israel’s enemies. So, despite my musings above, from a realpolitik perspective (given North Korea’s past behavior), it’s actually horrible, and at the very least only delays any potential future conflict.
Another case in point: the 1994 Agreed Framework. The US tried to bribe Pyongyang with aid, a nuclear reactor, and the promise of closer ties. Almost, immediately the North took its nuclear weapons research facilities underground and backtracked on its promises, leading to the current crisis.
The North Koreans don’t keep their word. They never have. They’ve wiggled out of several inter-Korean and international agreements, taking whatever booty they can scavenge and then go back to doing whatever bad behavior it was that touched off the conflict. If the North Koreans had a track record of honesty and transparency then maybe Sunshine could work.
That’s what NK’s been doing since the Sino-Soviet split: playing both sides when it’s advantageous to do so. Even under the rapprochement era (beginning with Clinton), they played the South off the Americans and vice versa. When the Cheonan fades a bit more, we can expect the North to make renewed overtures to both the US and South Korea.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think South Korean leftists are “pro-China,” at least not in the same way that rightists are pro-American. They are anti-American (i.e. viewing America as an impediment to reunification and to South Korea taking a more active role in the international environment), and so see China as a potential “balancer.” Chinese foreign policy is similar. The Chinese aren’t “pro-Russian” by any stretch of the imagination, nor were they “pro-America” during the late Cold War years, but they found convenient allies in both as it suited their geostrategic interests.
Again, not all. I would take American as my ally over China any day if I had to choose. However, I would be a little weary of all the “ally-pallying” anyway, depending on the those who were at the helm of the US government. With China, we know this hasn’t changed (and won’t change for a while), and I don’t ever recall when South Korea was ever over-friendly with the Chinese at the cost of its relationship with the US in the modern times.
I did some digging around and found out that you are absolutely correct with regards to progressive attitudes. Here’s a fascinating study on progressive versus conservative attitudes in South Korea conducted in 2008.
On attitudes towards America:
On attitudes towards China:
I don’t know if this counts as “overly-friendly” but didn’t Noh call for South Korea to take a more “balanced” role in Northeast Asia.
Milton: I believe you are right. Didn’t President Roh Moo-hyun want Korea to be a “balancer” not only between China and Japan, but also between China and the US, too?
And I remember during Roh’s term in office that the progressives were much more strident (shrill?) in their condemnation of the US than China, even when China was doing horrible things like using electric cattle prods on North Korean asylum seekers within diplomatic compounds.
As Lankov says, the only good neighbors are distant ones. Koreans may realize too late that the United States is a much better friend to it than China has ever been/will ever be.
(Disclaimer: I am not an American.)
Milton, that was a great link to the study. I only skim-read it but it’s good to know what one feels in the skin and smell in the air can be quantified and a cluster-analysis can be performed on it.
I’d usually do a snobby po po at a statistical study of anything but I found myself strangely nodding to that one.
Hamel, your disclaimer reminded me of this guy.
Yuna, have you ever read “Blink” by Malcom Gladwell? He talks about the “10,000 hour rule”, i.e., doing something for at least 20 hours a week for at least 10 years, which Gladwell contends trumps the theories, studies and statistics proffered by so-called consultants and experts. The Germans call it “Fingerspitzengefühl.” What’s the Korean word for it?
Not read Gladwell.
The Korean word for it? 여자의 직감? My mother calls me 여우.
I guess it’s more like 백조의 직감..
Fingerspitzengefühl may be the result, but a better German/yiddish analogue for what Gladwell was talking about is sitzfleisch
Malcolm Gladwell’s writing is entertaining, and sometimes he makes some interesting observations and great points. The other half of the time he comes up with half-baked theories and repeats them over and over and over. For example his 10,000 hour “rule.” Bollocks.
He’d gain a lot of credibility if he documented the sources for a lot of his information and claims. And get a haircut.
#26:
여우? A Vixen? LOL! My maternal great-grandmother was one of those, according to family legend. Story goes, back in the 1930′s, my maternal great-grandmother and her family were living in 함경 남도, while she was fretting about how to pay the high school tuition for her youngest son, my grandfather, who had been sent to study in Japan at a young age.
So she approached her husband, my great-grandfather, and suggested they sell some of their land that they weren’t using at the moment to pay for the tuition. Being the kinda person he was of that generation and age, he flatly refused by saying, “Over my dead body will any of this land be sold! He’ll just have to quit school and come home.”
So being the good Korean wife that she was expected to be, she just said, “예, 알겠습니다.” and dropped the matter. Meanwhile, she got his 도장, went to the county office, and sold off a chunk of his land behind his back, used the money to pay the tuition, and went on as if nothing happened.
Apparently, this little routine and charade went on and on — each time, she asked to sell some land, each time he refused, each time she did it anyhow — until her son finally graduated from university in Japan years later, returned to Korea, got married, and started a job in Suweon.
Then, the border was sealed in 1945, and everyone who was reading the tea leaves correctly, decided to make a run for the border. On the way south, apparently my grandfather began whinging, “I’m losing all my land forever,” to which his cunning wife replied, “What are you talking about you old fool? You don’t own a thing.”
“Whaddya mean?”
“I sold everything years ago to pay for our son’s tuition.” [여자의 직감, "woman's intuition", indeed.]
#27:
“sitzfleisch?” As in perseverance? I don’t get it. (I was thinking more along the lines of intuition.
#28:
Actually, it isn’t a theory. It’s an observation of a way of way of how people were trained and learned by doing in Western Europe from the Middle Ages to the present. The whole idea of trades organized by guilds — where an apprentice learns a skill, trains to be a journeyman, then a craftsman, then a mastercraftsman, is what Gladwell is talking about. That old school way of picking up a skill and becoming a master has been lost on our get-rich-quick fly-by-night culture where so-called pundits and experts speaking from their Ivory Towers are the only ones authorized to be an “expert” on anything.
This is hogwash, because it belies the fact that someone in the trenches, who learned everything there is to know about a system or a complex operation over a long period of time, might possibly know more than 90-day wonder or business school graduate, who couldn’t possibly know a fraction of what the guy in the trenches know, degrees from Wharton and Harvard notwithstanding.
8675309,
That’s an awesome story. Thanks for sharing.
For those wondering about 8675309′s identity, I’ve just figured it out. He’s my grandpa.
j/k 8675309
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