Odds and Ends, June 4, 2010

by Robert Koehler on June 4, 2010

So, everyone wants to know, WHY THE HELL WERE THE POLLS SO WRONG? The Hankyoreh also looks at the question. I certainly was shocked — pre-election polls had Seoul mayor Oh Se-hoon way out in front, and yet he was neck and neck with Han Myeong-sook to the end.
So… did Twitter have anything to do with the good opposition performance?
Three former Roh guys are back, including, most surprisingly, former home affairs minister Kim Du-kwan, who won the race for governor in traditional GNP stronghold Gyeongsangnam-do. We’ll see if new Gangwon governor Lee Kwang-jae can keep his seat, though — his alleged involvement in the Park Yeon-cha scandal is still under judicial review.
I can’t say I see anything positive in the school superintendent race results, either.
The consensus seems to be that the election results will force LMB and Co. to reexamine their agenda. When it comes to the Four Rivers Project, that’s not such a bad thing, IMHO, and the newly elected opposition governors have announced plans to end cooperation with the central government on the project in their regions. Still, as a Cheong Wa Dae official told the JoongAng, the project is already underway — the Hani says the project is about 30% completed, and from what I’ve seen with my own eyes recently along the Geum and Nakdong rivers, that could be right.
To add some commentary of my own, while the local election results might force a reappraisal from any other man, Lee Myung-bak isn’t any other man. If I had to predict, I’d say he’s going to put his head down, dig in and keep on doing what he’s doing with the conviction that when all is completed, the people will love him. His own political history encourages this attitude.
A Mongolian immigrant got elected to the Gyeonggi-do Council through the GNP’s proportional representation list.
So, why does it not surprise me that Korea would place dead last on a poll of the world’s most satisfied local communities? (HT to reader) Christ, even the Russians are a more contented bunch. Tough crowd, these Koreans are. Tough crowd.
On a happy note, Hartford might got a hockey team back… although it won’t mean jack to me unless they bring back the “Whaler” franchise, too, like they did with the Browns.

{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }

1 milton June 4, 2010 at 2:10 pm: The overall impact of these elections on government policy will be minimal, except perhaps to serve as a warning to the governing party. One thing to keep in mind is that South Korea is a unitary, not a federal, state and local autonomy is limited. The section of the Korean constitution on the responsibilities of local government entities includes a “conditional clause” which allows the central government to override local decisions and to intervene in local affairs.

Another thing to keep in mind is that despite the fact that conservatives lost the governorships in Gyeongnam, Chungnam, and Gangwon, they still won a strong majority of city and county governments in those regions showing that support for conservatives is still strong. On a county-by-county level, the overall balance of conservative (GNP and Liberty Forward) to progressive (DP, DLP) positions throughout the country was about equal. So this was still a defeat for the conservatives, but not the “참패” it was made out to be. (although, Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeongi are another matter).

Finally, some advice to pollsters: stop using random digit dialing. Korea is cell phone saturated and the only way to get an accurate snapshot of public opinion these days is through face-to-face polling conducted in an anonymous manner.
2 milton June 4, 2010 at 2:19 pm: This could be really messy:

[Gangwon Governor-elect Lee Kwang-jae] was re-elected in 2008, but last year announced his retirement from politics after prosecutors opened an investigation into his alleged involvement in “Park Yeon-cha Gate,” an illegal lobbying scam. The case is still under judicial review, but if Lee is found guilty and fined more than 100 million won ($83,000) he will lose his new seat.

From the KT article about the “Roh Trio”
3 Craash June 4, 2010 at 4:11 pm: I am happy to call myself a Songpa-gu resident (for many years).

It was thanks to Gangnam-gu and Songpa-gu (the two conservative areas of Seoul) that we kept the DP out and kept the same Mayor.
4 cmm June 4, 2010 at 5:58 pm: to keep the DP out? 한명숙 is more than just the DP at heart. She gets her orders from the North (…or so some of my old bosses told me). I met her and talked to her when she was Prime Minister. I wasn’t impressed (…with her English). Wasn’t her husband in jail for being a North sympathizer or something years ago?
5 milton June 4, 2010 at 6:51 pm: Congratulations are in order for all of those who predicted that the South Korean government’s response to the Cheonan sinking would be…nothing.

All of Lee Myung-bak’s retaliation measures have now officially been “delayed” (read: canceled).

Propaganda broadcasts…canceled
Plans for a UNSC resolution…canceled
Economic sanctions…mostly repealed
Massive “show of force” in the West Sea…cancelled

See here:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/06/116_67094.html

Remember all that talk about “No Six Party Talks before the Cheonan is resolved”…

Well, when Lee addresses the Shangri-La Security Conference in Singapore this weekend, he is expected to stress the importance of getting the North back to the Six Party Talks.

See here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64N0F520100604

The period we are in now reminds me in a lot of ways to the run up to World War II—not that I’m in any way, shape, or form predicting World War III or any war for that matter. Starting in the early 1930s Hitler embarked on a series of increasingly belligerent provocations starting with support for Franco in Spanish Civil War. With each act, the Western Democracies did nothing; merely calling for restraint and dialogue, afraid to start a wider conflict. And with each passing aggression, Hitler grew increasingly convinced that the Western Democracies were too weak and impotent to stop him. Kim Jong Il has grown increasingly bold and belligerent in the past two decades and with each act, the world has stood by, too afraid to act. I don’t know where this is all heading, but I can tell you it’s not a good place.

It is also obvious that the US and its allies have no credible deterrence against North Korea, while North Korea has a pretty solid deterrence against us. The West, Japan, and South Korea are being bullied by a state run, in the world of Christopher Hitchens, by a Nation of Racist Dwarves.
6 milton June 4, 2010 at 6:53 pm: … being bullied by a state run, in the world of Christopher Hitchens, by a…

Should read “in the words of”
7 milton June 4, 2010 at 7:32 pm: Sorry, my bad. It seems the Jeju Straits are still closed to North Korean traffic. But it’s not like that makes any difference to the Pyongyang-flagged vessels exporting nuclear technology to Myanmar, Iran, Syria, Venezuela…
8 sumo294 June 4, 2010 at 9:18 pm: The elections had very little to do with the scaleback–it was a deal struck between Hillary and LMB, in a year or so we will know what kinda carrot it took to make this happen. The elections only delayed the reversal in policy because LMB wanted the issue to play out in favor of the GNP. LMB, the pragmitist, was bought off.
9 Robin Hedge June 5, 2010 at 5:28 am: Does anyone have experience teaching English for public schools? Better than a hakwon? I’m thinking specifically of the EPIK program, and again I’m asking on behalf of a KoAm/교포 girl interested in financing a trip to her family’s homeland. Thanks to those who answered the first time.
10 Robin Hedge June 5, 2010 at 5:30 am: 2nd question: Anyone have a good source for / estimate of the number of North Korean refugees currently in China? I’ve seen numbers between twenty thousand and two hundred thousand.