According to CNN, a US military official believes a torpedo was the most likely cause of the explosion that sank the Cheonan:
A North Korean torpedo attack was the most likely cause for the sinking of a South Korean warship last month, according to a US military official.
The US believes the ship was sunk by the blast of an underwater explosion, but that the explosive device itself did not come in contact with the hull of the South Korean ship, the official said.
This is the same conclusion expressed by South Korean military officials.
And that’s the entire report. I was hoping for something a bit more substantial, but that’s it.
Defense Minister Kim Tae-young apparently believes a “bubble-jet impact” — caused by a torpedo — broke the ship in half. For a full analysis of North Korean heavy torpedo capabilities, see this piece in the Korea Times.
In the meantime, not that I’m the Hankyoreh, but I’ll wait for something conclusive before I jump on the vengeance bandwagon.
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Has anyone yet given thought to the possibility that it might have been China that did this, to stir things up a bit between the two Koreas?
Heck, if some South Korean bloggers can suggest that the Cheonan was struck and sunk by a U.S. nucular sub, then I can suggest something from out of left field too, right?
Thank you Hamel. I thought it was a little strange that I hadn’t heard any Koreans blaming America for the Cheonan, but now I know everything is right with the world. Or least no more wrong than usual.
As for China, I’ve heard several people suggest the idea that China had a hand in this, but no one in a position of authority.
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On a serious note, my guess is that Seoul, Washington, and Beijing have each by now concluded that Pyongyang deliberately attacked the Cheonan and killed all those Koreans. And my guess is that Beijing has been experiencing gentle massaging from Seoul and Washington to actually help them punish Pyongyang in some meaningful way. But I don’t think anything substantially punitive will result because the one thing Beijing will not do is let KJI go broke. The harder we sanction the DPRK, the more the CCP will invest in NK. Perhaps every crisis is an opportunity, but turning general public opinion in Korea against the DPRK and its Korean sympathizers is probably the best we can hope for from these murders. Other than that, it looks at this time that after some chattering at the UN, we are going to end up with more status quo.
Everybody says “Likely” but no one says “it is”.
This 모르쇠 game is perfect.
I like it. It gives Korea a chance to wake up to NK capability yet come short of proposing retaliation which may bring more attacks.
Defense spending should be increased and Korean Navy should be brought up to modern standard. More submarines should be built and operated.
I like it. And, Korean government will keep playing it. It helps LMB’s party in coming election as well.
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