What’s Doug Bandow’s take on the Cheonan sinking? Like you needed to ask:
A military reprisal then could have triggered a full-scale war. Responding in kind this time also could spark a dangerous escalatory spiral with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
However, Seoul has spent the last decade attempting to pacify the DPRK, providing aid, allowing investment, and hosting summits. To do nothing would seem to be abject appeasement, undermining ROK credibility and encouraging the North to act even more recklessly in the future. If the word “firm” has any meaning, the South Korean government would have to do more than protest.
Still, the decision, though difficult, shouldn’t concern the U.S. The South has gone from an authoritarian economic wreck to a democratic economic powerhouse. With a vastly bigger and more sophisticated economy, larger population, and greater access to international markets and support than the North, Seoul long has been able to defend itself. Pyongyang retains a numerical military edge, but its weapons are old, troops are undertrained, and industrial base is shrinking.
Thus, the South should be able to decide on the action that best advances its security. However, Seoul long chose to emphasize economic development over military preparedness. As a result, the ROK remains dependent on America.
It gets better:
Some 27,000 U.S. personnel are stationed in the South. The U.S. retains formal command of all forces, American and South Korean, during a war. Seoul expects substantial U.S. air and naval support and ground reinforcement in the event of war.
Which means that ROK retaliation against the DPRK would draw the U.S. into any conflict. So Washington cannot help but pressure South Korean decision-makers to act in accord with American as well as ROK interests. In fact, that’s what happened in 1983, when the U.S. insisted that Seoul not retaliate militarily after the bombing attack on President Chun.
The current situation also means that the destiny of America is essentially controlled by the North’s Kim Jong-il. Ordering an attack on a South Korean ship could end up forcing Washington to go to war. Although the bilateral U.S.-South Korean defense treaty does not make American intervention automatic, it is unimaginable that an American administration would stand aside in a conflict.
This is a ludicrous position for both the U.S. and South Korea, six decades after Washington saved a far weaker ROK from a North Korean invasion in the midst of the Cold War. Neither country is well-served by Seoul’s continuing defense dependency on America.
Read the rest on your own.
(HT to the Western Confucian)
{ 35 comments… read them below or add one }
I mentioned this interesting article in the earlier Don Kirk thread too.
http://www.rjkoehler.com/2010/04/17/don-kirk-on-the-sinking-of-the-cheonan/#comment-368797
The Confucian’s Red Priest thread is a blast too.
I loathe to acknowledge as much, and I hope no one is stupid enough to credit the architects of Sunshine with any foresight or, especially, intentions in this regard, but the remaining progency of Sunshine still in existence and operation certainly now provide a useful expedient fpr the ROK to take meaningful (even if not fully recirporcal) retaliatory action. ROKGOV should move expeditiously, and publicly and noisily) to terminate the Kaesong charade and end ALL (including ostensibly “humanitarian”) aid to the NORKS.
This is not the time to make this sort of argument. It makes the US appear cowardly and disloyal.
More than the South Korean government?
Definitely time to terminate all aid and relations…
Check out what the NKoreans are doing now…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_koreas_tension
“N. Korea says it will seize 5 S. Korean assets”
The timing is impeccable.
This is what comes of paying blood money.
#5
Yup, once again the North scores in the propaganda battle. LMB should have officially ended that shit before the North could “seize” the assets. Oh well, either way, no more dollars, rice or fertilizer will be flowing north and that is the important outcome of this. What is yet to be seen is whether Seoul has the spine for a non-military confrontation.
@6
Nothing flowing north maybe….
But there’s a 2 billion dollar aid package flowing south…
@SomeguyinKorea: I disagree. I lived in S. Korea for 3.5 years and now I’ve been back in my home country for about a year now. What I’m going to say may sound harsh but it’s realistic. The majority of the US population can’t find South Korea on a map nor does it care about this incident. The US has such a large military presence in numerous countries that the only way this looks bad for the US is for the people living in South Korea. This is HUGE news is S. Korea but barely a blip on the US news radar. What’s my point you ask? The real people/country that looks bad is South Korea. Your point of view is slanted because you are more directly involved living in Korea (assumption based on your name). To the average outsider it looks like North Korea sunk a South Korean MILITARY ship and the south did nothing. It doesn’t take a genious to know what that makes South Korea look like. The north has such a long history of doing whatever it wants to the south and the south just bending over and taking it. TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IT LOOKS LIKE NORTH KOREA SUNK A SOUTH KOREAN MILITARY VESSEL AND THE SOUTH DID NOTHING.
A flawed and biased article.
Bandow makes it sound like South Korea hasn’t spent a dime on defense and is totally relying on the US military for their defense.,In reality, South Korea in 2008, was the world’s 11th biggest spender on defense ($24billion) – roughly matches its economic size standing in the world.
What South Korea hasn’t done is to put over reliance on the defense industry like the US – which has basically spent itself into its current financial difficulty. South Korea’s defense budget is far above North Korea’s, and the gap keeps increasing every year as South Korea’s economy continues to grow while North’s economy continues to shrink. What this has shown is that to have a strong military, you have to have a strong economy. Both components depend on each other.
Bandow also seems to complain that if South Korea retaliates, there will be a war in which the US will be dragged into. But at the same time, Bandow complains that the South Koreans can’t do anything to “defend” themselves – meaning retaliate militarily. Well, first of all, if you don’t want war that you want to be dragged into, then why complain that South Korea isn’t able to retaliate? It’s easy for him to say that, sitting overseas, 10,000 km away where he doesn’t have to worry about his own capital city burning into ashes in matter of minutes.
cm, I regret that I cannot give more than one +1.
well said, cm.
Cm,
Seoul would not be buring in ashes in a matter of minutes, but the longer we wait to deal with North Korean, the more likely that possibility becomes.
If we do not know where the North Korean artillery positions targeting Seoul are by now, then that means our intelligence agencies have not been doing their jobs. I think we could defeat North Korea in a matter of days with a surprise attack.
Why not go in and knock that silly scarecrow off his rickety pole before some “made-North-Korea” nuke blows up an American city? The farce has gone on long enough.
By the way, the US owes South Korea nothing, especially after seeing the true colors of South Koreans during the Roh Mu-hyun years, but I think the US should support South Korea with air and naval forces in a war with North Korea.
In the meantime, South Korea should be paying 100 percent of the cost of keeping US forces in South Korea. The freeloading has gone on long enough.
That’s a very reasonable argument…if S. Korea in fact wasn’t facing one of world’s most dangerous foes.
Gerry,
It’s good to see you back.
And my feeling is:
Until SK starts saying no to appeasement it will be played like a fiddle.
^ think about it.. North Korea spent half their economic budget on their military. What did that get them? The defense budget of South Korea is bigger than the entire North Korean economy. Military spending alone at the expense of the economy is a ruinous path. South’s economic growth ensures that the defense spending continues to increase. If South Korea;’s economy doubles in the next five years in size, then its defense spending will also double in size, without even if South Korea raising the percentage of the national budget alloted for defense (which by the way has increased over the last few years). A balance between a strong military and a strong economy is what is needed here. South Korea’s main interest is squarely in the Korean peninsula. It’s ludicrous for Bandow to complain that South Korea is more interested in projecting power abroad in the middle East and in central Asia – at a time when it was the US complaining that South Korea wasn’t helping out the US in the middle East and in central Asia. That accusation is just out of the left field.
“Until SK starts saying no to appeasement it will be played like a fiddle.”
And my feeling is, you’d better be damned sure before you start a battle which could lead to war, if it comes to Mr. Bandow’s wishes come true, and America is just going to let “Koreans take care of their own problems”. If that’s the case, then all of a sudden, this question of appeasement which you brought up, becomes a “none of your business” – because it’s not your problem anymore. For Korea, there’s no back up anymore so you’d better be damned sure you have a nuke or two or a dozen handy as the main backup.. just in case.
well, if america wants to leave, then korea will have to build ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons to put on those missiles. careful what you wish for.
The biggest failure of LMB administration’s NK policy is this: OK, now you are going to say no to NK, and demand exchange of equivalent measures instead of SK giving in one direction. Then what are you going to do when NK refuses to roll over and take it, and do something like blowing up a ship? LMB administration has no answer to that question, when they should have anticipated all along that something like this will happen when SK began saying no.
I think NK believes SK HAS started saying no to appeasement. Which is why they’re so pissed.
I agree, but with a caveat. I think the LMB had a plan to do something in the event of an actual exchange like 2002. Politically, it’s easier to order things like hitting North Korean naval artillery sites and coastal radar installations as part of an ongoing battlefield situation, when it could be argued that you’re acting in self-defense. This is different, though — IF the Cheonan was torpedoed, it was a sneak attack, and now it’s over. Any retaliation would be just that — retaliation. Sure, you’re right, LMB should have had contingency plans for something like that — North Korea didn’t spend all those years on the State Department terrorism list without reason.
thekorean,
The answer lies in the middle. LMB cannot do everything NK wants, nor he can deny everything NK wants. So, he will do one thing while not doing another. This will be constant game of give-and-take.
LMB is in impossible situation, so he has to lie. He will lie to SKs that he will not tolerate NK tactics while meeting NK to give in. He has to appear tough while appeasing KJI in secret.
LMB is a good politician and he can do this.
Kennedy did this in Cuban missile crisis. He appeared tough, but his people were meeting Soviets to work out deals (exchanges), like giving Turkie air base to Russians.
gbevers,
You are as unreasonable as some Koreans. They say USFK only stays in Korea only for the benefit of the US, to check Chinese expansion.
I know, I know it is ridiculous. But, your saying of USFK only stays in the peninsula for the benefit of Koreans is just as ridiculous.
The truth is that it works for both countries. Otherwise, USFK has withdrawn years ago.
Americans are not stupid people. Nor American government. Nor pentagon.
thekorean,
Another way is to play “Good cop, bad cop”. LMB and SK can play the bad cop while the US play the good cop toward NK.
LMB should slam KJI hard. And, Obama opens more channel with KJI. This is the opposite of the past, Bush playing the bad cop and Rho playing the good cop.
It can work.
Baduk,
I do not buy the Chinese expansion argument, anymore, at least, not into South Korea. US forces in South Korea are not keeping China from crossing into North Korea, and US forces would not be used if China did cross over. We would not go to war with China.
The first country to go into North Korea is the country that gets North Korea.
Very much tempted to do one of those Sonagi-style “fixed it for you” edits, but instead I will just say that the first country to go into North Korea is the country that gets lumbered with North Korea, in the sense that they would be stuck with footing the bill for feeding its malnourished population, to say nothing of the 1950s education they have received, leaving them with basically no 20th century work skills (to say nothing of the 21st C) save for manual labor. That is a frightening prospect for anyone.
Also, Gerry, if, as you say, US forces only stay in South Korea to the benefit of Seoul, then surely that must be one of the greatest con jobs in modern international relations history. And I can see from the comments that some people actually believe this – perhaps Bandow does too.
But since nations generally do things (particularly involving large disbursements of money and manpower) for their own self-interest, I do not and cannot believe in the con job theory.
I think you are wrong again, Gerry. Primarily because 5 years after Roh Moo-hyun’s election, South Koreans voted for conservative Lee Myung-bak, shocking Roh’s supporters and also shocking North Korea.
To quote a Gusts of Popular Feeling paraphrase of Brian R Myers’ book “The Cleanest Race”:
NK was hoping that SK under Roh was the “true face” of Seoul. It is really struggling now that Lee is in charge and more popular than they expected. I think your argument also suffers because of this unfortunate fact, Gerry.
A lesson that the US learned when it went into SOUTH KOREA, which has been its tar baby ever since, i.e., it’s not simply an out and out con job – although there’s a huge element of that which has been practiced most successfully not by numbskulls like The Great Pretender (RMH) but by the Korean right, to which LMB is heir (see “Tasks and Times”, the memoir of Foreign Minister Lee Tong Won) — but equally a function of inertia as much as anything else, and the susceptibility of the national interest getting hijacked by special interest groups with more self-interested objectives (e.g., all those extra general officer billets that go along with 8th Army, UN and CF commands)
South Korea has been trying to ignore the North Korean problem for a long time now. The younger generation is probably less willing than even the current generation in power to seriously face political reconciliation with North Korean and its economic development. Although understandable (SK has been busy improving itself) this procrastination looks increasingly untenable. And so the future is a very frightening and uncertain one. Nobody knows what to do, but certainly the first step must be for South Koreans to firmly acknowledge that North Korea must be dealt with now. Unless they are willing to take this first step (and right now I sadly don’t see much sign of it) then things can only end badly, and perhaps very badly. Right now North Korea is a time bomb, why aren’t we trying to defuse it?
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Hamel. : )
Hamel,
The only reason Koreans want US forces in Korea is to reduce their defense-spending burden. If the US demanded South Korea paid 100 percent of the cost, then South Koreans would suddenly realize they do not need US forces after all.
US forces should be sent somewhere they can be more useful than just sitting on their hands all day.
justinkraus,
There is no solution. China is supporting NK 100%. Nothing can be done!
These things take time. And, sometimes suddenly things happen. For example, China may go to war with Russia or with Japan and somehow a chance may occur where it loosens grip on NK. That will be the time to do something.
Not now. Whatever one does now can only make things worse.
SK should just concentrate on building up its military and work on defensive scenarios.
Which is one of the reasons why I didn’t imitate it.
The other is I find it too “aren’t-I-clever?”.
Yup, clever doesn’t suit you, Hamel.
Yes, I would rather not pretend to be something I ain’t.
Are you implying that you don’t find me clever, Hamel? Oh, dear…Well, you admitted that you were tempted to copy an html tag trick I use to fool others into thinking I’m clever but alas, you have too much integrity.
And to those who believe that SKorea is not pulling its weight in defending itself (not sure if Bandow goes quite that far or not), I would say: look at military deaths incurred by SKorea and the US in engagements with the enemy over the last 20 years. Not just the Cheonan, but other incidents as well. It is usually ROK soldiers/sailors who are in the line of fire.
You must log in to post a comment.
{ 1 trackback }