The Defense Minister is talking again:
Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said yesterday he thinks a torpedo attack is the more likely cause of the sinking of the Navy patrol ship Cheonan.
During a question-and-answer session on emergency matters at the National Assembly in Seoul, Kim said a torpedo attack and a sea mine blast were the two most likely causes of the tragedy, but he put more weight on the idea of a torpedo attack.
[...]
In case of a torpedo attack, either the weapon can hit the ship directly or it can explode right below the vessel and create a bubble jet effect [a type of underwater explosion] to break the ship, Kim said. The picture of the cut sections seems like it had been hit by a torpedo directly.
OK, at this point, I note:
- Cheong Wa Dae still says it’s too early to tell anything.
- Even after saying he thinks a torpedo might have sank the ship, he doesn’t think it was a direct attack by North Korean submersibles that were in the area.
I’m going to assume at this point that if the Cheonan was torpedoed, it wasn’t by the Cambodian freighter. Speaking of which:
A fishing boat has vanished and is feared to have sunk after searching for sailors missing from last week’s naval disaster, maritime police said Saturday.
Police said they lost contact with the 99-ton boat, carrying nine people aboard, after receiving a distress signal at around 8:30 p.m. Friday in the area off the western sea border with North Korea, where the patrol ship Cheonan ship sank on March 26.
[...]
The police said they were also chasing a Cambodian-registered 1,472-ton vessel sailing nearby to determine whether the two vessels had collided. They cite oil floating in waters near the scene.
The Coast Guard, BTW, caught the freighter on the high seas and are bringing it back to Incheon.
Marmot’s Note: If the North Koreans DID sink the Cheonan — and I really, really hope they didn’t — it would be more than just the usual nonsense: it could be “Load the JDAMs and Fire Up the F-15s, Cheol-soo” time. Now that the incident is several days old and the government has had time to consider the potential consequences of making it rain steel on North Korean naval installations, I have no idea what President Lee will do. I will say, however, it’s going to be very, very difficult for him NOT to retaliate in one way or the other for the murder of over 50 ROK Navy sailors IF that’s what the sinking turns out to be.
UPDATE: Please see ROK Drop’s post, too.
{ 48 comments… read them below or add one }
Can the retaliation be held off until nitwitizen Kim arrives in the Korean meatspace?
If it was intentional I doubt there will be a retaliation – the absence of intestinal fortitude + they gotta defend Dokdo from the encroachment by Jap schoolbooks. The only issue involving water the gov’t is inclined to tackle is that of mool shraegi. I’m speaking from first hand experience: apartment complexes’
meddling busy bodiessecurity guards aren’t to be tussled with on that one.Military retaliation by S. Korea isn’t something that we should be worrying about. Assuming that the sinking was caused by a torpedo carrying submersible, this isn’t the first time N. Korea has sunk a S. Korean warship or caused harm to S. Korean citizens or property for that matter. And every time after the incidents, the S. Korean government chose to keep its head down instead of striking back.
What I find distasteful are the actions of the government and my former service in regards to the incident itself. Instead of responding to this incident quickly in a logical and coherent manner, they are resorting to knee-jerk reactions that is contributing to the overall confusion surrounding the incident while prolonging the pain felt by the families of the missing sailors.
I hope that the government will get to the bottom of all this, do what needs to be done, and lay things to rest.
“Raining steel” upon North Korean naval installations sounds dramatic and is very movie-like. Such would only help the leadership in North Korea and, if LMB wants to hurt their leadership, he will do something else — not flashy — but it will hurt their long-term well-being *much* more than firing upon them directly.
No, this is a case where cold and deliberate calculation will do better and I can only imagine the restless nights spent in the North, watching their fate creep closer to them.
I agree that there may be political pressure on LMB to take some kind of military action.
However, when I put this idea to Dr B R Myers (yes, there’s Hamel quoting from a private conversation again, something some people think is a dicky thing to do, but I think the point Myers made is germane), he said that the GNP’s motto is “make wealth, not war,” so there might be stronger pressure not to do anything drastic. So perhaps R. Elgin’s scenario is more likely.
Since I agree with Myers that NK would not avoid war by all means (as some analysts and observers think) and that a military strike of any sort against NK might be enough to push NK into all-out war, let us hope that the sinking of the Cheonan was not due to NK, and that, if it is, cooler heads and self-interest prevails in SK’s leadership.
This is probably the only time you will find me not only praising materialism and greed for wealth, but actually hoping that these things win out over national pride and vengeful wrath.
Where’s the pressure to strike back at North Korea militarily? I haven’t seen or read anything to suggests there is pressure for military actions amongst Korean public. Maybe it’s mostly coming from expat blog sites on Korea?
The alleged provocation is of such a nature that retaliation defeats its own purpose. The longer we look at this, the loss of the men on that boat seems, so horribly sadly, more and more like a moot point.
That speculation presented, and 황장엽’s recent comments aside, what is their potential motive for doing this?
cm: I am speculating here, based on instinct and history. I haven’t actually seen any calmoring for retaliation yet, but I suspect it would come initially from the veterans and military, led by the relatives of the dead sailors. They would be joined by groups like the people who have pro-USA demonstrations every year with US flags and Korean flags side by side.
Of course, the DLP and maybe even the Democratic Party would argue against it. Normally I would say they are wrong, but in this case, because I live in Seoul and want to keep doing so healthily, I am on their side.
Argument against North Korean involvement: the North would have to be incredibly stupid to sink a South Korean ship.
Argument for North Korean involvement: the North is being incredibly stupid these days.
Jeffery Hodges
* * *
Jerffrey: I agree with your second assertion.
In regard to the first assertion, this kind of statement is often made (NK would never do that because it would be suicidal) but that is based on a false assumption that the leaders of NK think as we do, with our kind of logic and values.
I don’t think the South needs to respond militarily if the North caused the sinking of the Cheonan. I think Lee Myung-bak should first demand a state issued apology for the incident from Kim Jong-il and compensation to the victims’ families which we know he won’t get.
But this LMB cover to start taking non-military actions against the North. The first thing I think he should do is take opening the Geumgang tours off the table. Then he should withdraw ROK workers from the Kaesong Complex and shut it down. Then follow this by stopping of all aid to the North. At the same time an effort should be made through international courts to seize DPRK funds for compensation to the victims’ families. The ROK could also move to get a UN resolution further condemning the North for the incident.
This all combined will probably really piss off the KJI regime so if there isn’t a credible threat of retaliation against them they will probably try to provoke more incidents. That is why I think a credible threat of strictly enforcing the PSI would be enough to keep them in check.
I agree with you, but it remains to be seen whether LMB and his supporters do. I hope they agree.
“Make wealth, not war.” I don’t think that will happen, short of war.
I think that is based on a false assumption that the leaders of NK think as we do, with our kind of logic and values.
I think I am coming to a position that in the case of this particular incident, (if NK is actively behind it, and not just some old NK mine that has been around for decades) there are really only two possible outcomes: a retaliatory strike that is almost sure to start a war of some sort, or some harsh words but basically no action (no stricter sanctions or other economic measures) – because anything more would lead to the same outcome as the first.
The NK regime has consistently demonstrated a strong instinct of self-preservation. They will escalate military action if they believe that there is a good chance that the South and other members of the 6-party talks will materially reward NK for its bad behavior. After each escalation, the North will re-assess its strategy based on the response. By not responding at all to a military strike, the South would look like cowards to the North, inviting further attacks to bully the South into reinstating Roh-era payments.
“it’s going to be very, very difficult for him NOT to retaliate in one way or the other..”, wrote Marmot.
As you may have come to know, Koreans have “boiling pot” mentality. Very short attention span.
As long as government officials play “모르쇠”(We don’t know) game and delaying tactic, Koreans will forget this in two week.
Korean soccer team should set a exhibition match against some weak team and everyone will go “대한민국~” and forgettabout the whole CheonAn thing.
Every Korean knows it is not a good thing to do anything militarily. Everyone knows that. War will end Korean prosperity and bring back death, poverty and misery.
Koreans have become wealthy. Wealthy people have a lot to protect. They become cowards.
This is why America keeps slums. And, best soldiers come from Bronx Hell’s kitchen. That is, after they get arrested for drug possession. Many of them are in Afganistan protecting America.
SKs have become cowards. When NK attacks, these soldiers will run. Their family will help them run. The wealthy people are cowards.
The CheonAn thing ended today. The presumed-dead soldiers’ family asked the government to cease all rescue attempts. They do not want any more good soldiers die while trying to look for dead bodies. It has been long and everyone knows they are dead.
The CheonAn thing is over. Everyone wants it to be buried. And, forgotten.
There will be some leftwingers who try to use this thing to irritate LMB, but they will soon find out that no one wants to know why. It is like Ibsen’s story “An Enemy of the people” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Enemy_of_the_People. Korean people do not want to know. Especially, if the attack came from a superior NK capability.
Soon, no one will talk about the incident. No one.
Koreans are different from Americans. “We do not know” and “We do not want to know” may bother Americans. But not Koreans. Koreans have been living like that for five thousand years.
Last two presidents, Kim DaeJung and Rho MuHyen, have sent billions and billions of dollars to Kim Jungil to “help” NK and work toward Korean Unification. That was a lie.
The money was an appeasement policy. Payments to the thug. Protection money.
With the money given, NK has been buying the Russian and the Chinese weaponery. Superior capability.
Koreans dug their own grave.
The fools die.
A military response is the worst possible idea.
Think GW Bush’s dismal approval ratings on Sept 10, 2001. Then an attack by outsiders makes Americans rally to the flag and Bush Jr wins another term because of it.
The Kim regime is getting bad approval ratings. They are also seeking a new term. Add an “unprovoked” attack by outsiders and what happens inside NK?
I don’t mean to be Joe English Teacher here, but….. if there is no real reaction against this absolutely unacceptable piece of bullshit (which there won’t be) it is gonna twist my tiny brain into pure hatred of Korea and everything it stands for—–
Lack of concern for it’s own people.
Lack of concern for it’s non people.
The willingness to let its own fucking people die (and continue to die in the future) just to not cause future problems.
God, it pisses me off so fucking much, and I am the daintiest, lightest whitest dove in a field of gay doves.
Let 50 people die for the sake of keeping business as it is today. Let 100 tomorrow. Let 200 die the next day. Nothing will happen from this.
@Robin Hedge
Your comparison is a little off. Actually, it makes no sense. Your analogy would be more appropriate if you put LMB–not KJI–in GWB’s position on 9-12. The question Bush faced then was what to do now. This is the question LMB must face should KJI’s culpability becomes known? GWB responded by invading Afghanistan and Iraq in response to an attack. But most people seem to believe that South Korea should not invade the North.
However, 9-11 is a bad analogy in the first place. It is plainly obvious to non-truthers that America was attacked on 9-11. The situation is murkier with the Sinking of the Cheonan. In our history, the closest analogy may be the sinking of the USS Maine. So perhaps, any analogy would best put LMB in William McKinley’s position. Of course, even so, WM declared war on Spain, a decrepit empire under an unstable government with little in the way to defend its sovereinty in the Caribbeans. The North has China.
BTW, if LMB attacked and Obama could keep China out of the war, then there is no doubt that the ROK would win. The only question would be what Seoul, Okinawa, and Tokyo would look like after the war.
@ sulperman
You must be aware that NK and China have a defense pact. This is the only reason why we have to suffer KJI. NK has assassinated, kidnapped, bombed, and otherwise violated the sovereinty of South Korea. In addition, they openly threaten us with nuclear weapons and are developing long range missile technology to be able to reach at least to California. But even so, South Korea and America have been powerless to retaliate militarily due to that pact even though it is clear that NK’s military strength is insignificant relative to the South’s, let alone to ours.
In addition, South Korea’s economy at this point is largely dependant on China. All economies around the world, which have best weathered the Great Recession are either India or are exporting to China in a big way. If China kills trade with South Korea, South Korean economic activity might just evaporate.
Finally, I do not know how confident the South Koreans are with their ability to intercept incoming missiles. The North has Plutonium based nukes–perhaps, up to 6. Although we do know that these bombs are not that powerful, a successful detonation could carve out a large section of one of the largest and most densely populated cities in the world. They are also supplemented by NK’s chemical and biological-based warheads.
I think you make it sound like retaliating against NK is a simple thing.
Hamel #9 wrote:
“Jerffrey”
Of all the variously creative misspellings of my name, I think that I like yours the best.
Jeffery Hodges
* * *
Is that the same way that someone who smokes five packs a day for 60 odd years show a strong instinct of self-preservation? From my comfy armchair I’m not so sure they know what they’re doing up there. The NK regime’s “strong instinct of self-preservation” is likely to see them “going Ceausescu” at some point in time. Meanwhile Kim Jong-il’s efforts to ruin his posthumous entry in “Who’s Who of Korean History” continues unabated. There’s a nice article about this actually in the FT, linked to by onefreekorea.
If South Korean intelligence does decide that the attack was launched by the North in the hope of using a limited military response for domestic purposes, then it’s going to be awfully hard for Lee Myung-bak to just give them what they want.
I have been thinking about what could cause such a clean break of the ship. Out of all the explanations this is the one I find most credible, so far.
Before going all gung ho and risking all the human catastrophe that comes from waging a war, especially on a foreign soil, in that typical fashion of a certain country, the Korean government is doing the right thing not jumping to conclusion. However, I hope they have the courage to admit it was just their own engineering botch-up, and little to do with the NKs if it turns out to be the case.
No, the NK regime survives in the same way that Stalin survived. Chinese officials have long hosted KJI and high ranking North Korean officials on tours of factories and gleaming skyscrapers to sell the benefits of development under economic liberalization tempered by political repression. The North Koreans have toyed with markets only to shut them down. Is this because they are stupid or because they fear the regime, unlike the CCP, cannot survive opening up North Korea? Just as the mafia survives by running illegal businesses as well as parasitically sucking money from legitimate businesses so does the North Korean regime survive by parasitically sucking money and resources from others.
Lollabrats I think you’ve mistaken my argument, or else I don’t understand yours.
First, I’m looking at the internal North Korean perspective. LMB doesn’t need a rally-around-the-flag effect and the SK people don’t perceive North Korea as a real enemy anyway, and they realize a war would be disastrous.
KJI however does need a popularity boost. He needs to prove that South Korea and the US really are enemies, esp since North Korean people seem to be changing their minds about this and starting to (eee-gads) think for themselves. In this sense KJI could be like GW Bush after 9/11 — his popularity boosted by people’s patriotic reaction. Make sense now?
To spell it out: an ROK attack on DPRK defenses would be a wonderful propaganda gift from Kim Jong-il’s perspective. How better to prove that imperialist and puppet forces are a real threat than to manage to get attacked by them?
So let’s imagine that ROK forces respond by sinking a DPRK vessel of similar size and killing 50 North Korean draftee sailors. Since the DPRK never claimed responsibility for any attack (and indeed we still do not know why the Cheonan sank) the DPRK would claim the nation had been invaded or at least attacked and would use this to justify the hardship the people are going through, to bust people with cell phones, etc etc etc. Now let’s imagine that 70% of the NK population believed the South had attacked first. The nascent and inchoate view that the South is actually a friend of the Northern people might vanish. Suddenly instead of being upset by their material condition and so on, they are upset by (or can channel their anger against) foreign/Southern invaders. The news cycle has shifted from “our gov’t sucks after all” to “the nation is in peril and must defend itself.” A lifetime of propaganda kicks into gear as they feel their intense patriotism swell up. Now KJI is transformed from their tyrant to protector. It’s a huge publicity coup for KJI and son.
If you care about the 50 sailors because you are a humanitarian, why wish to kill more sailors by sinking a Northern vessel? And how many people died on the road yesterday? I’m sure there are better and safer ways to save 50 lives, especially without killing another 50 and risking 500,000 lives or three times that plus the destruction of modern South Korea as we know it. If emotion is driving you (not Lollabrats per se but anyone who wishes for a military SK response), then I will tell you that you’re being played. There is no reasonable military response. Instead defenses should be improved and other measures taken against the regime and in the favor of the NK people.
“BTW, if LMB attacked and Obama could keep China out of the war, then there is no doubt that the ROK would win”, wrote lollabrats.
Let me tell you that
1) there is no way China will stay out. China calls NK a brother country. A blood brother country.
2) NK capabilities are not easy to overcome. They have dug into every hill and every mountain in NK. It think the fight will be even.
And, define “win”. Two countries will bomb and missile heck out of each other. Many people will die and permanently injured. Hungry orphans will roam the streets for decades. Nearly all industrial capability will be gone. SouthKorea will be back to 1960.
The battle will last about 6 months and be stopped by the China-America peace talk. Million casualties in each country.
BTW, have you thought about this? As soon as the war starts, all highways will be filled with cars, fleeing Seoul to drive to Busan. The roads will be jammed. And, after waiting in the cars for about 6 hours, people will abandon cars, since they cannot move. Highways will be filled with abandoned cars, a big parking lot.
SK military, with fancy tanks and trucks, will not be able to move anything. They have to put things in the back pack and walk. Just like NK soldiers. Korea will turn into one big urban city fighting. Soldiers hiding and shooting. One-by-one.
SK has no advantage in this type of fighting. I actually believe in NK victory, if it comes down to this.
Do not think it will be an easy win for SK.
@Robin Hedge
I objected to your analogy because the context of the situation GWB found himself in on 9-11 is utterly different from KJI’s, should he actually be guilty of ordering the sinking of the Cheonan. The country rallied around GWB because we were so plainly attacked and because we knew who did it. Obviously, this part precludes any analogy between GWB and KJI on 9-12.
You’re arguing instead that because of KJI’s control over the media in NK, he can persuade NKoreans to believe the falsehood that any retaliation from SKorea is unprovoked. Ok.
Well, then, here are three points in response.
(1) In the event of a commensurate retaliation of some sort by the South, I do wonder whether NKoreans would respond the way you fear they may. Unlike any other population, NKoreans clearly know that there is an alternative government for them, which happens to be highly successful. After all, this knowledge is what drives many NKoreans to consider defection. If defector revelations are to be believed, NKoreans in all levels of society are largely skeptical of KJI’s propaganda. I do wonder whether there will ever be a point when most NKoreans may even secretly wish for SKorea to attack the North.
(2) SK must be engaged in some form of communication with Japan and China, the other two nations, which would be directly affected by any retaliatory SKorean action. Japan is an obvious target for NKorean retaliatory missiles. And China is the regional hegemon, who happens to be NKorea’s protector. They are also two of SKorea’s top three trading partners. They, more than anyone, may be counseling SK to be careful how they respond. I will say this, if SKorea does bomb NK, then I would take that to mean that China gave them permission. I would be curious at what the NK response would be if SK attacked and China did nothing.
(3) Ultimately, I think a retaliation against NK should either be an all or nothing proposition. You can’t be pussyfooting around with your worst enemy, who happens to have nukes. If SKorea decides that it was attacked and that it needs to respond with force, then I would argue that the Koreans should take a few months to plan an invasion, enlist the aid of America, Japan, the Europeans, and Russia to try to secure China’s acquienscence and then topple the DPRK as quickly as possible. If this is not possible, then they are going to have to just sit on it as they did all those other times of post-war NK aggression.
@Baduk
“1) there is no way China will stay out. China calls NK a brother country. A blood brother country.”
This is the concern. I am sure you have noticed that I have made my points conditionally. If China will not agree to ignore the defense pact, then there is no war. I agree. I am only musing about what might happen should China decide to sit out Korean War II.
“2) NK capabilities are not easy to overcome. They have dug into every hill and every mountain in NK. It think the fight will be even.”
Your description befits more a mass NK military funeral than preparations for defense. SK really is that much more advanced in technology, skill, motivation, and nutrition.
“And, define “win”.
I would define “win” as the overthrow of the DPRK government and the successful annexation of all the lands presently under DPRK control upon the annihilation of DPRK’s military ability. Secondary but vital objectives would include securing WMD, freeing political prisoners, securing DPRK records, capturing DPRK leadership, disarming the local population, starting up SKorean government services for NKorean civilians, etc.
“Two countries will bomb and missile heck out of each other. Many people will die and permanently injured. Hungry orphans will roam the streets for decades. Nearly all industrial capability will be gone. SouthKorea will be back to 1960.”
Mass civilian casualties in SK and Japan are probably inevitable. We can only mitigate devastation with government preparation. However, NK will only have a limited window of time in which they may mass launch missiles at SK or Japan with impunity before SK and American forces destroy their launch capability. I doubt NK civilian casualties will be as high as those suffered in SK.
Reconstruction will have to be a global affair. In a worst case scenario, I think SK can recover within a decade. As for the destruction of infrastructure in NK, it will not be missed.
The upside to victory is real peace on the peninsula, not the fake kind.
“The battle will last about 6 months and be stopped by the China-America peace talk. Million casualties in each country.”
…I disagree.
“BTW, have you thought about this? As soon as the war starts, all highways will be filled with cars, fleeing Seoul to drive to Busan. The roads will be jammed. And, after waiting in the cars for about 6 hours, people will abandon cars, since they cannot move. Highways will be filled with abandoned cars, a big parking lot.
SK military, with fancy tanks and trucks, will not be able to move anything. They have to put things in the back pack and walk. Just like NK soldiers. Korea will turn into one big urban city fighting. Soldiers hiding and shooting. One-by-one.
SK has no advantage in this type of fighting. I actually believe in NK victory, if it comes down to this.”
I assume that should SK decide to invade NK, that SK will not do so on a whim. I am sure planners will have figured out logistical issues before launching any invasion.
Incidentally, in case of Korean War II, I would hope that SK residents will not flee to Busan, another likely target. Instead, they should flee to the rural, less populated areas. The southwest may turn out to be a fine destination.
^^;
Of the comments so far, GI Korea @10 is most correct.
But here’s a new reason why he(/she)’s correct:
We’ve all seen, to our dismay, that no matter how much good the US and its allies do for Korea, and no matter how much evil is done by the DPRK, many Koreans still have a bizarre attachment to the North and blame the situation on the West. (Blood is thicker than water, etc.)
Thus, tit-for-tat military retaliation that results in more Korean deaths would not be popular. Two wrongs, in this case, do not make a right. It would be much better to quit Kaesong and Mt. Geumgang and seek the civil and diplomatic remedies listed by GI Korea.
In the long run, China is the key. China will not accept a unified Korea with US forces in it. China might however accept a unified Korea (with no US forces) in exchange for Taiwan. Personally, I think that’s a good deal, especially as generations of American presidents have confessed that Taiwan is a part of China. Then again, I’m not Taiwanese (and I don’t want to piss off any Taiwanese; I’m just calling it like I see it.)
@ WeikuBoy
RE an “offer” of Taiwan: that’s an obvious non-starter to the rest of us.
@baduk
Do you really believe that in a one-on-one fight, the DPRK’s military, which cannot feed its own soldiers, maintain enough fuel for their vehicles, and supply enough ammunition for their weapons can hold out against SK for 6 months with antiquated communications and transportations systems and arms?
What happens when DPRK soldiers resort to commandeering scarce local NK food supplies and pressing into service every malnourished villager within days of the war’s start. You think the NK villagers will thank the soldiers for saving them from the SK menace?
Let’s get real. Absent China’s interference, the DPRK is toast.
“But this LMB cover to start taking non-military actions against the North. The first thing I think he should do is take opening the Geumgang tours off the table.”
If NK is found culpable, and SK thinks of doing this, then they had better act soon. It won’t be SK retaliation if NK does it first.
@Robin Hedge
Sorry for not responding? It seems my response to you @24 is awaiting moderation.
However, I hope they have the courage to admit it was just their own engineering botch-up, and little to do with the NKs if it turns out to be the case.
The Pohang class corvettes are smaller versions of the Ulsan class frigates. During the 1970s, former Pres. Park Chung-hee ordered the Navy and local shipbuilding industry to design and build a destroyer. With technical assistance from an US naval architectural firm, the Navy and Hyundai designed, built, and launched a 2,500 ton frigate which became the ROKS Ulsan, Of course the Navy not being satisfied with the original design decided to add a second gas turbine and an another 76mm gun at the stern. The result? During trials, the ROKS Ulsan keeled over to the stern, because of all the weight at the rear of the center of gravity. So, how was the problem solved? Concrete was poured into empty spaces in the bow area, and the ship was balanced.
The ROK Navy wanted to mass produce the Ulsan class, but because of budgetary constraints, it opted for a smaller(and cheaper) version of the Ulsans, the Pohang class (which the ROKS Cheonan is part of) to supplement the Ulsan class.
Put it simply, early S. Korean warships weren’t exactly the best designed and engineered ships. So I wouldn’t be surprised if “poor engineering” was the cause of the sinking of the Cheonan. However IMO, the submersible with the torpedo seems to be the most likely cause.
Of course now that the salvage operation is underway, I guess we’ll know the real cause sometime in early May.
ok, poor engineering plus carrying additional weight it’s not designed to carry like the department store.
lollabrats,
In 2012, the wartime command authority (전작권) goes to Korea. The US Forces will be the helper. The burden of Korean defense goes to Korean military.
In other words, the US Forces are not responsible for the defense of Korea! Sure, the US will help. It will do what it can, within its means. A part-time helper, it will be.
Never has this been so clearly spelled out!
In short order, the US will call for “the end of Korean War”. Do you know the US forces are in Korea because the war has not ended? Korean war has been in cease-fire state for last sixty years. Never ended.
SK may have to face NK by itself. Japan? It may actually play a spoiler. The Japanese may grab Dokto during the conflict. They are like that. Sneaky bastards.
“I assume that should SK decide to invade NK…”, you wrote. Yap, this is how it is going to look to the outside. Two countries fighting each other. World citizens may see that the SKs are the villains. China and Russia will definitely see it that way, no matter who starts it first.
One more thing, there is no one in SK who likes to even think about attacking NK. Not even one. They say this and that, but no one is willing to pick up arms. No one wants to fight to defend the country. No one will die for Korea. They like to dance, go to movie or make money. SKs are morally corrupt. Easy life has ruined SKs.
NKs are hungry. And, they are mad as hell. They will invent the ways to defeat SK. Like CheonAn incident. SKs will not even know what hit them.
However, most people in SK think NKs are easy to defeat, as you wrote. They think the economy and the superiority in weapon system and logistics will lead them into victory.
War is won by the people with strong resolve – stronger will to win. In one-to-one comparison, an average American was more courageous, more industrious and had stronger will to win than an average Japanese in WWII. That is why America won. It was not just material advantage.
I really see big problems for Korea in coming days. May God help the country I love.
“Incidentally, in case of Korean War II, I would hope that SK residents will not flee to Busan, another likely target. Instead, they should flee to the rural, less populated areas. The southwest may turn out to be a fine destination.”
Flee to unknown location? And, do what? Broadcast speeches? Who is going to believe that he is he. TVs will not work while radios will be filled with NK propaganda broadcasts. There will be a lot of psych warfare played by NKs. Things are not the same as 1950s.
And, people are not the same. Koreans are sophisticated. Maybe too smart. They will not wait for any announcement. They will not trust anyone. Not even their neighbors. Each person will try to do their “own thing”. That is also the lesson from the Korean War. Those who waited got burned.
Despite the government’s pleading, everyone will put their precious belongings and drive out, toward the south, resulting in highway jam. No one will believe the president. Or, any authority. Civilians will fight soldiers who try to stop them.
Riot situation. Confusion. Lawlessness. Rapes. Stealings. Killings. A living hell. Soldiers taking off their uniforms and running with civilians. Everyone fending for himself.
SKs are no longer the simple people who waited for government announcement and followed it as in 1950s.
And, that is why SKs will lose. No unity. No preparation.
Like Katrina, preparation and plans do exist on paper. And, the authority will show it to you and explain to you in detail how it will work.
However, those are useless when the big one hits.
“The southwest may turn out to be a fine destination.”
Wrong! Jolla province is known to be the hotbed of Communists. There are still many activists there who follow anti-government theme and deny the legitimacy of Korean government in the first place. Very dangerous area to go when the big one breaks.
They will attack anyone from Seoul, especially from Kangnam, and kill and take belongings, while other villagers look on.
In general, any rural area can be very dangerous. Poor people will rise up to support the North. They will say that they were mistreated by the rich Koreans. They will start singing KimJungIl song. And, that is what happened during the Korean war as well.
Do not go to the village where you have no relations. Even then, you may be killed together with them.
Just imagine everything turning upside down. Confusion and Mass Hysteria. No one to trust. Many played anti-Communist during day time and played Communist at night.
Village members killing each other. And, that was what happened during the Korean War. Some families still carry hatred toward another. Even in small villages.
Remember the Maine!
One big question really…
Are SKoreans willing to fight for their convictions?
The only situation where I can see SKoreans actually fighting is
if the NKoreans actually invade.
@ lollabrats: “RE an “offer” of Taiwan: that’s an obvious non-starter to the rest of us.”
I’m not sure who “us” refers to or who you imagine yourself speaking for, but you are correct that most people would abhor the idea of giving Taiwan back to China (never mind the previous examples of HongKong and Macao). Just understand — and I hope Koreans understand — that China might very well maintain a similar protective attitude toward its friend and ally, North Korea.
Interesting posts Baduk . . . however, I think you underestimate LMB. There are some really intelligent younger folks whispering into his ears these days and I know exactly what I would be saying to him behind closed doors.
Demand to the US that retaliation is unavoidable. Wait for the US to counter with a cash incentive not to attack. Take payments and then sink some of the Norks drug running ships. Sink a couple of subs. Do this quietly and under the radar.
If the Norks nuke Seoul, I doubt anyone will be fleeing to go to Pusan.
If war happens I doubt the Norks will be allowed to communicate with field operations–do you honestly think they will be able to?
They simply don’t have the logistics to sustain an all out barrage for longer than a week–without China–and that my gerbils won’t likely happen. China does not have the resources to handle an imploding Nork state in face of a critical and opposed South Korea, Japan and US alliance.
China trying to rule the Norks intially might be a blessing to South Korea in the long term. Let China use its resources to police and rebuild a state that will never ever be grateful or loyal to its so called older brother–what a repeat of history.
Do you see China getting the blame for failing to help the Norks, the bad publicity, the immense draining of capital resources and the diplomatic headaches of doing so?
And what exactly do the Chinese get for attempting such a feat? Anything good and of lasting benefit to China?
How come no one here is mentioning that within minutes, NK can incinerate half of Seoul with its artillery and short-range missiles alone? Those are not the types of things that can be intercepted, unlike ICBMs flying across the Pacific.
NK does not even really have the ability to defend itself. The only ability that NK does have is making sure Seoul turns into a sea of flame. And truly, that’s the only leverage NK has over SK — but that’s still quite a leverage.
That Seoul is in well within range is pretty much common knowledge. SK have Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar systems, which are Phalanx based, protecting the capital?
To me the more interesting albeit speculative topic is the number of moles and how deeply they’ve embedded themselves in critical areas. They could really fubar SK during a conflict.
SK’s counter system “protects” Seoul only in a sense that NK can only fire out one or two volleys of artillery shells and missiles. Once NK does fire out the first battery of shots, nothing can stop it. They reach Seoul within a few minutes — and that is quite enough to kill thousands.
Has anyone mentioned that for all their talk, SKorea doesn’t want
NKorea back right now? It’s all good to spew rhetoric but SKorea
loses big if SKorea manages to win the war. sumo294 is right. SKorea doesn’t have the resources to rebuild NKorea. Trying to do so would devastate it’s economy. The Seoul gov’t knows they couldn’t handle
unification with the state that NKorea is in right now.
Phalanx-based systems, chum. Provided they have the time to acquire the target – NK is far enough away – and SK has enough of them to engage, they do a decent job. Need a lot to counter all them shells that would fall on ya. Ought to put 1000 on ‘em north of Seoul. It’ll be Korea’s version of Israel’s Iron Dome, the real Wall of Jews©. Recall each is approx. $15 million, so budget $15 billion.
Interesting point, Keius.
Exactly. This would be more so how LMB would consider dealing with certain problems; not recklessly head-on but just so and it is logical. Managing public reaction to events is probably more difficult or tricky, I would imagine.
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