From the KT:
Defense Minister Kim Tae-young cautiously raised the possibility Monday that the ill-fated frigate Cheonan may have hit a mine laid by North Korea.
His remark drew attention as Cheong Wa Dae and defense officials had previously sought to downplay the North’s possible involvement in the deadly ship wreck Friday in which 46 South Korean sailors remain missing in action.
Answering questions at the National Assembly on the cause of the incident, Kim said, North Korean mines may have floated into our territorial waters.
However, he refused to comment on whether the mines had been placed by the North intentionally or had drifted into South Korean waters.
Defense Minister Kim likes to talk. A little too much, IMHO. Can’t anyone just say “we’re keeping all possibilities open”?
On the speculation front, we have the Kukmin Ilbo wondering what the Cheonan was doing there in the first place (the speculation being it had something to do with North Korea declaring the area a no-go area) and the guy from Nambuk Story speculation that if North Korea did it (and he doesn’t think they did), they’d use female commando/suicide bombers in semi-submersibles.
Interestingly, the ROK military apparently has TOD footage of the sinking vessel, although it’s doubtful it will provide many clues. At any rate, the military won’t release it.
BTW, GI Korea has been doing a great job blogging this tragedy/outrage, so go to his site for the links.
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The warship goes down in only 20 minutes. It seems as if the explosion must have occurred in precisely the most vulnerable spot in the ship for that to happen. Looks like an inside job to me.
My bet: Minister Kim got it half right…it will take a while before he’s ready to admit whose mine it was. Knowing how the US used the island during the war, my money is on a US or ROK mine.
One brave rescuer diver dead, others in bad condition, as divers try their best to get to the trapped people (probably all dead by now). The special forces divers are not only battling bad conditions, but lack of proper equipment to do their jobs. They are risking their lives by diving beneath again and again, with each dives taking a toll on their bodies. The ROK navy doesn’t have proper under water equipment including special oxygen tanks that are required in highly pressurized areas of the sea. Instead, they’re using regular oxygen tanks which are jeopardizing the divers’ lives. Why din’t Korea ask the US navy for help?
http://news.hankooki.com/lpage/politics/201003/h2010033016423291040.htm
Mines: Not sure if this pertains to the sea, but back when The ROK and UNMC cleared the DMZ for the N-S railroad project, I recall hearing US officials say there were virtually no mines on the North’s side. The analysis was that North Korea envisioned making future offensives through that area and avoided mining the route.
What are ya? Beggars?
Perhaps you ought to allocate some of the money wasted on aggrandizing the vaterland on some things that are a bit more practical.
Nah.
^ that’s something that should be seriously examined and looked at after all this is sorted out.
Right now, saving lives are more important.
cue the conspiracy nuts
A mine? Now who would have guessed that?..
http://www.rjkoehler.com/2010/03/26/open-thread-143/#comment-366949
DefMin Kim has been a bit loose-lipped, but one thing that is surprising is the absence of conspiracy theories.
Seems any “response” should be non-military (apart from boosting defensive measures like improving maritime patrols, etc). Instead it may help to try and locate and freeze any overseas DPRK/KJI assets, push on the human rights angle, crack down further on weapons trade, etc. Crucial not to take play into DPRK hands…
Also, no less importantly, we can now take action as individuals.
English teachers: are you donating any time to NK defector groups?
Here’s Dr Lankov himself on this matter:
http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01100&num=6178
A very good read.
I find this incredible. I’m a freakin’ recreational diver but even I know you are supposed to use enriched air for deep sea diving. 45 meters? Good Lord! You’re not even allowed to go over 15 meters without enriched air!
Another part of the article talks about how there is only one ship that has a decompression chamber on board, which limits the numbers of divers that the navy can use to TWO. Korea has so many little pockets of being at a third-world level, and they only get fixed after someone dies. It’s pretty fucking frustrating.
So one “response” would be to improve the weaknesses thekorean describes here. Also, improving SK counter-intel might not be so dumb…
My conspiracy theory…..
NKorea is responsible. SKorean gov’t is lacking testicles and wants to let it all pass as a possible accident with a ‘loose’ mine. SKorean gov’t has alot to lose and doesn’t want to risk conflict and or jeopardy to it’s economy. NKorean gov’t can only strengthen itself with a small conflict and publicize the threat of war. SKorean gov’t will try to pull the wool over the eyes of it’s citizens and smooth the entire situation over.
I still find it unbelievable that the military wouldn’t have the right diving equipment for deep sea diving. This junk is just common sense.
More on the UDT agent who passed away. Apparently he volunteered for the rescue work. Previously, he was beating up pirates off the coast of Somalia. He was 53 (!). The article also says that he was moved to an American ship that had a decompression chamber, but did not regain consciousness. His son is an army officer.
If you are interested in conspiracy theories, there are plenty at <a href="http://news.donga.com/Politics/New/3/00/20100330/27231034/1"this article.
… this article.
It’s the same old pattern, isn’t it? Lack of preparedness and readiness for possible unexpected emergency.. This stuff can been seen in Korea, everything from construction companies who don’t think about earthquakes, to I/T planners who don’t think about protecting against hackers, to even the military who lack proper equipment for rescue. Why spend the money and improve the system if the disasters are not supposed to happen, right? Appearance matters more than substance, same old same old mentality.
According to WSJ, U.S. Navy is helping out with more divers. Korean navy is also allowing private divers to join the search effort.
I am going back to Exocet-like missile theory.
1) Sea mines are 50/50. It may or may not hit. NKs are stupid to put this in SK water. Some fishing boats may hit this and NKs will be hated by the poor people they count on to be their supporters.
2) Torpedoes even when fired by a micro sub will still be detected by the ship.
Only Excet-like missile is fast enough to hit the ship before it awares of the missile and it is powerful enough to split the ship into two.
Either the Chinese or the Russians supplied NK with this modern missile.
Earlier articles wrote about a NK plane approaching the area. This plane could have carried the Excet-like missile and put it on the water. Once released, these missiles travel fast and hit the target with good efficiency.
ChunAn got hit before it knew what was going on. No time to defend.
“A sea-skimming missile, the Exocet stays close enough to the water that it can be difficult to pick up on radar.”
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-an-exocet-missile.htm
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