I pray that both the missing are found and that this was just an accident:
A South Korean Navy ship sank off the west coast near the maritime border with North Korea, officials said Saturday, with just more than half of the 104-member crew rescued.
The 1,200-ton ship Cheonan went down around 9:45 p.m. near a South Korean island in the Yellow Sea, and 58 of the crew members have been rescued so far, Navy officials said.
Patrol boats and helicopters have been deployed in a rescue operation, but officials said the efforts were hindered by strong winds and darkness.
The possibility of a North Korean attack was raised when local residents reported having heard “loud artillery firing” for at least 10 minutes from 11 p.m. Military officials initially said a South Korean vessel fired a shot northward at an unidentified ship, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the object caught on radar appears to have been a flock of birds.
“We have been unable to pinpoint the exact cause of the incident as of this moment,” the Navy said, with multiple officials saying an unexplained explosion in the rear of the ship may have ripped a hole in the vessel’s bottom.
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My prayers go out to the missing 46.
I served in the ROK Navy aboard the now decommissioned ROKS Kwangju in 1995. Our ship was based in Incheon and the thought……
As for the question of the tragic incident being an accident or not, I wouldn’t hold my breath. The patrol corvette Cheonan and her sisters have 12 Mk 9 depth charges in two racks which are located in a slight depression in the stern. Theoretically, these could have become unstable and exploded, but since they were in an exposed area, it would have caused a lot of damage, especially the above deck area. But I doubt it would have caused the hole that led to the flooding and the eventual sinking.
According to news reports, the survivors have stated that the ship was lifted upward as a result of the explosion. This happens when something explodes under the ship, which points to a torpedo or a mine.
But of course, we won’t know for sure until the ROK Navy inspects the Cheonan.
I’m no sailor, but the statement that they fired at a flock of birds sounds very fishy. Anyone?
Without wanting to sound alarmist, and while hopeful that the 47 missing are found, North Korea (in all likelihood) killing 50 people and sinking a big boat, is a pretty big deal beyond the usual border skirmishes that have become commonplace. I am mildly fearful for the future although at the same time I can’t imagine why North Korea would want to escalate real conflict at this time.
It’s a dreadful thing, and with every hour that passes the chances of finding any more survivors from the incident fade. It’s very sad.
I’ve wondered about the ‘mine theory’ that some have conjectured, but surely as the explosion was at the back of the boat a mine is unlikely, boats almost always travel forwards! An accident with their own weapon systems or a North Korean torpedo seem to be the likely causes to me.
There are a lot of conflicting reports and speculation at the moment, a full investigation is needed as soon as resources can be taken away from the rescue efforts.
justinkraus yes it is a big event if it was a DPRK attack.
There are several motives from the DPRK point of view. The tyrant needs enemies to justify and distract from the tyranny, and since the internal NK situation has deteriorated not only economically but more important symbolically and the regime has lost status, it may seek to recoup status by directing anger and fear outside. The “military first” policy also needs an adversary to be justified. As Meyers points out in the WSJ the succession is involved here as well.
What’s more, as the rulers’ power becomes shakier, they have less and less to lose and can take bigger risks.
Also, they may feel their threats aren’t taken seriously by other powers. America is bored by the missile tests… So there is the international poker game in addition to internal reasons.
In a sense they may also wish to keep their enemy around, since in one way of thinking their worst enemy is also their best friend: without the US to harp on there far less justification for depriving the people of opportunity. This is the paradox of US military presence on the Peninsula.
The regime appears to feel more threatened than ever. And NK public opinion appears to be more against the regime than ever. Now remember how low Bush Jr’s approval ratings were on Sept 10 2001, and then how high they were when everyone was wrapped up in flags a week later. Dictators still need consent of the governed, especially when trying to pass the torch to a little prince.
@ Robin,
I agree with your analysis. I suppose I should have put more emphasis on the “real” when I said “real conflict.” Certainly the DPRK needs to keep up the appearance of fighting the foreign demons, but again a big boat and 50 dead (I pray not) is a bit more than keeping up appearances. Hence I am afraid. If this was the DPRK’s doing, I think its a sign that things are getting pretty darn shaking in there and that the collapse may not be a very smooth affair or very far off. But these wiley dictators do tend to hang around longer than we think they will (look at old Bob Mugabe) and we also shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves, we still haven’t heard what definately happened.
I can agree with most of that, justinkraus. I read elsewhere a suggestion that the SK gov’t should try to underplay this if it was an attack (and of course we don’t know yet).
Can or should the SK gov’t respond in kind? My thinking is no, they should not. And this brings us to another area to consider. Couldn’t the DPRK theoretically step up attacks with virtual impunity? I mean if it were in their interest, couldn’t they even engage in a low-level conflict for an extended time? What can we (SK and her allies) really do about it? Nuthin? How to respond to DPRK aggression? By attacking we would prove that NK has external enemies bent on destruction of the fatherland… meaning that we might help the regime tighten its stranglehold on NK.
Nuthin? Ohno.
SK government will give 100 to 500 million dollars to KJI.
If you were 2MB, what else would you do?
Politicians have to do “damage control”.
All Korean newspapers are reversing their earlier account and saying that the explosion was spectacular(the ship was fallen to two pieces instantaneously) and sank quickly. No wonder the well-trained sailors just jumped into the sea.
I am going back to my original scenario of Chinese-developed exocet-like missile or sophisticated torpedo shot by NKs.
Come to think of it, a NK general was saying a few months ago that something would happen in this exact area. Maybe he knew about this weapon that they acquired from the Chinese.
NKs were shoting their land-to-sea missiles all summer long last year. Maybe they have developed some guidance system that can direct the missile over an island – the ship was behind BagRyung island.
Several surviving ship’s personnel spoke out and said “the ship sunk not because of internal explosion or hitting an obstacle but because of external attack”
“이들은 침몰원인이 ‘내부폭발이나 암초에 부딪혀서가 아니라, 외부피격이라 생각한다’고 말했다”
http://media.daum.net/society/others/view.html?cateid=1067&newsid=20100327195909686&p=mk
They were right there at the scene.
Well Baduk, if we consider your new weapons hypothesis, there’s also a candidate in Iranian long-range high-speed torpedoes. Looking a little I found out that China has a similar technology. But you’d think the Iranians, who already have a weapons trade with the DPRK, would be a more likely source. From what I read the Iranian weapon has a 7km range. That would do it…
This said, we’re getting very far away from known facts here into sheer speculation territory. We don’t even know if it was an attack at all.
Anyone who is familiar with the way Baduk’s mind works knows that he has a tendency to wax looney propheticisms about an impending war between China, the Koreas, Japan, and the US. This latest incident fits well into Badukstradamus’s hocus-pocus.
A famous jazz player (Miles?) is reported to have said that you should always keep your ears open because a new good idea might come from the most unlikely of sources.
Govenment already knows the cause of this incident but they are keeping it down until they have the conclusive evidence. Also they are probably doing some 물밑접촉(behind the scene contact) with the north. i personally believe it’s north korean watermine after reading some articles and such. The survived sailors clearly stated that it was not internal explosion of the ship but most likely external attack. After reading some expert’s analysis such as this one (http://bemil.chosun.com/nbrd/bbs/view.html?b_bbs_id=10040&pn=2&num=54823) I’m 90% sure it is north korean bastard who did this.
Let’s assume for the sake of discussion that Seoul concludes this was the result of a NORK water mine or torpedo. Where does the S. Korean government go from here? Does it keep the information under wraps or make it public? If the information is revealed, what will public sentiment be? Will the South retaliate? If so, how strongly? Harsh language? Cessation of aid? Military retribution? Will Seoul become provocative? Inquiring minds want to know.
Iceberg, the only way it becomes public is if the South wants to push KJI further toward war…
This NK-escapee tells about Man-Torpedo squad in NK.
http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/28/2010032800997.html?Dep1=news&Dep2=headline1&Dep3=h1_01_rel01
This cannot be stopped by modern radar system. Actually, this cannot be stopped at all. Something for the defense department to look into.
R.I.P
IMO, it was dirty Chinese who planted under water mine.
I’d say that the time for a Southern counterstrike has passed. If they knew right away, then maybe cooler heads would NOT have prevailed. But it’s been a few days now, and retaliation would only help the North justify it’s outside invader lie, especially since, their media hasn’t said a word about it yet.
Click my name for a response to Pamela Geller’s off-the-rail comment that it is, “an act of war, no doubt”. And that Obama is to blame.
or click here
미안
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