I often see references to earthquakes in the letters and journals of Westerners who were in Korea in the late 1890s and 1900s. According to this report there were 323 earthquakes occuring in Korea or its vicinity during a 40 year period (1905-1945). Most of these earthquakes did little or no damage and, according to Prof. Rodney Grapes of Korea University, the chance of an earthquake doing extensive damage in Seoul now is “statistically very small.” How small? Profs. Jer-Ming Chiu and So Gu Kim estimate that the possibility of an earthquake of 5.0 or greater hitting Seoul is only about 2% per year. I am not sure how comforting that is but….
According to Yonhap - if a 7.0 magnitude quake strikes near Seoul more than 50,000 residents of the city will perish and nationwide there will be more than 670,000 casualties.
The Seoul Disaster Risk Management Profile (last updated July 2006 PDF) (for those who don’t want to use PDF you can use cityriskpedia which basically has the same material) states that on October 7, 1978, a 5.0 earthquake near Hongseong damaged 1,120 buildings which inspired the Korean government in 1988 to require all buildings to withstand an earthquake of magnitude 7. The report also states:
“The city of Seoul has many high-rise buildings over 30 stories that are home to over 10,000 residences. These buildings are connected to underground infrastructures such as subways. If an earthquake were to occur the tall buildings and underground transportation would be at risk of great damage and loss of life. The underground system would be difficult to access.”
The report also notes “that most non-engineered dwellings constructed after 1988 have an earthquake-resistant design, however they may not have been built soundly. High-rise buildings constructed before 1988 can be assumed to have no earthquake-resistant design.” (I used the italics and bold print to show something a little alarming – as I am sure many of us old timers can remember a bridge and building not being built soundly).
According to the Yonhap article: “But even if a 7.0-magnitude quake occurs, the country will be quick to put is relief system into operation, dispatching 119 rescue teams, dealing with casualties and reestablishing gas, electricity and water supplies,” Yonhap cited the [anonymous] official as saying.
As a side note – South Korea has decided to send an additional 10 million dollars worth of aid to Haiti – perhaps they read Pawi’s blog
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It’s very unlikely that there will be an earthquake of large magnitude. Earthquake proof buildings in Seoul are as useful as a flood dam in the middle of the Sahara desert.
As far as I recall there were no questions about the building being built soundly, but rather the unsound modifications made to it later.
Also the stats from Yonhap seem a bit illogical only 50,000 from ten million for near Seoul but 670,000 from the remaining 40,000,000 many of whom are far far from Seoul?
Sitting on a solid ridge of granite is a Good Thing.
Looking at Earthquake zones from the map:
http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/images/earthquake_concen.gif
Korean peninsula is missed all the danger spots, except for nearby Busan port which is close to Japan.
Look at Japan, Taiwan, Philippine, they are sitting on the actual high risk zones.
I knew a guy in the construction trade in the early 90s and he said NOT ONE of the buildings he worked on was up to code (site foremen helped themselves to a certain percentage of rebar as part of their “pay package”). If there’s a 7.0 here, those ubiquitous high-rise apartments will go down faster than a Thai hooker.
Actually, Sampoong was soundly DESIGNED, but was not built to original specs as the owner kept ordering changes in the design and construction as it was in progress for cost reasons. It thus was the as-built structure that failed; the collapse was not the result of post-construction modifications.
Having personally witnessed the use of fire stairs in the LG Twin buildings as merely a replacement smoking room after the practice was banned, I am certain that some folks may have taken other safety shortcuts. There were also some sub-floor trays with both power and network running together, though I heard that was cleaned up after 1997…
Not all construction teams are crooked/lazy/indifferent. There will be some like that in every country. But meanwhile we should pray there are no other metro areas that experience such large shocks.
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