Just Let North Korea Collapse: WSJ Column

In the WSJ, the AEI’s Daniel Blumenthal and Leslie Forgach argue that the Obama administration should forget talks with North Korea and just let the country collapse:

With protests that forced a policy change, a sanctions regime that has so far deprived Kim of at least $18 million, and uncertainty about the Dear Leader’s succession plan, it may well be that this time around Kim is truly running out of money and possibly control.

Rather than bail him out, Washington should let Kim fall. It’s the best chance the U.S. has of achieving its twofold objectives: denuclearization in North Korea and the eventual unification of the peninsula. After all, the Kim clique has made it clear after decades of negotiations that no amount of aid will suffice to induce them to end their nuclear program. The relatively conciliatory response to Special Envoy Stephen Bosworth’s mission earlier this month—the North Koreans declared that “differences” have been “narrowed”—was a classic North Korean negotiating ploy, not an eleventh-hour acceptance of a nuclear-free world.

Some might argue that a desperate Kim may really make a deal this time—and Pyongyang certainly needs the bailout it is sure to receive during a new round of talks. But history suggests a dying regime is far less likely to make lasting concessions. Successful disarmament has occurred in places like the Ukraine and South Africa only after a new regime one looking for assistance and legitimacy, came to power.

I’m all for ignoring North Korea and letting them stew in their own mess. Where do I sign on?

Nobody ever won money betting on a North Korean collapse, but I will say this — things haven’t looked too good for Pyongyang. There was the currency reform debacle. There’s South Korean president Lee Myung-bak really putting the screws to the North (less than 5% of the inter-Korean “cooperation” fund spent in 2009? I love it!). Now H1N1A is reportedly wreaking havoc on the country (not a surprise, really), and markets are being closed:

Yang Mun-su, professor of the University of North Korean Studies, served as a session participant and referred to other social trends in North Korea. He referenced North Korea’s recent “150 Day Battle,” “100 Day Battle,” currency reform and crackdown on markets. Professor Yang said that from a policy perspective, the logic of politics has dominated economic rationality and the mood of economic reform has been in retreat this year. He also said, “Increasing numbers of residents who are starving in North Korea have engaged in new behavior such as committing crimes such as stealing.” He added, “This is a significant new phenomenon related to regime stability.” Yang also said that in a situation in which the system of distribution is not functioning properly, a crackdown on illegal markets does not lead to their eradication but rather to their proliferation. Yang said, “This widening of illegal markets would give the wealth class greater space to exercise their privileges and could widen the gap between the rich and poor.”

It looks like it’s going to be a cold winter. But hey, who knows? Maybe North Korea’s fine art exports could pull the starving nation out of crisis.

UPDATE: It seems last week, Chosun Ilbo columnist Kim Dae-joong was saying much the same thing:

It’s expected that the North will suffer a crisis next year more serious than its 1997-98 famine. If the grassroots market is disrupted while this happens, experts say, the North would suffer large-scale starvation in the lean season next year. In addition, North Koreans are not what they used to be a decade ago. They apparently watch South Korea dramas and are well aware what South Koreans’ life is like. “The currency reform has perhaps touched the detonator of the grassroots economy,” said a North Korean defector.

Some appeasers point to North Korea’s imminent return to the six-party talks. But that only means turning back the clock to an endless meaningless round of agreements and backtracking that achieve no palpable results. The regime seems to realize that it is hitting a cul-de-sac. In working for a breakthrough with the U.S. at a time when U.S. President Barack Obama faces pressure to produce results in the North Korean issue, Kim also needs support from the south Korean president.

In the circumstances, North Korea’s nuclear arms and the people’s rights are in danger of being forgotten. It looks as though the North’s return to the six-party talks, bilateral talks with the U.S., a peace treaty and moderation are becoming ends in themselves. There is no explaining the irony that the U.S., China and even South Korea seem inclined to help the North Korean regime at the very time when it is facing its biggest crisis.