The National Election Commission reports that voter turnout in today’s by-elections is off the pace set by the last round.
I had better tell my wife to get out and vote.
Three of the five races are not competitive, which will lower turnout in those areas. Also, it is a bit apples and oranges comparison since the districts having by-election may generally have lower turnout
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Andy,
How ‘bought a Nate Silver-esque breakdown of these races, who’s running, and who’s anticipated to win, plus an early reading of what effect, if any, the outcome of these elections is gonna have on the National Assembly.
I used to eat this stuff up back in my NA days. Would love an update on this inside-baseball stuff.
DLB
Sorry, no time for that stuff today.
In short, the GNP has two safe seats, the DP has one safe seat and there are two seats in swing districts in Gyeonggi Province. Most of the information I have read says that Ansan is pretty safe for the DP this year (although I am not so sure about that), which leaves Suwon as the district likely to determine which party comes out on top.
The results will give a morale boost to one side (especially if the GNP wins) but there will be little political impact beyond that.
Hmm, interesting. I don’t know about Ansan, but I’d say if the DP does well in Suwon, they’ll be ecstatic, since that’s traditionally been a swing district.
On the other hand, the GNP owns the NA (I think they have something like twice the number of seats as the DP), so you’re right about these elections not having much of an impact.
DLB
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