That’s the question Bradley Martin asks in GlobalPost:
Expect North Korean naval and land forces to fire missiles and guns in coming days at South Korean targets in a disputed north-south border area in the Yellow Sea, killing some South Koreans and suffering a measured military retaliation.
If the North Koreans do launch an attack in the West Sea — which is likely, IMHO — expect South Korea to whack the North.
Expecting the North Koreans to try something, President Lee Myung-bak has been going out of his way to impress upon Pyongyang that he is NOT Kim Dae-jung or Roh Moo-hyun. Perhaps concerned that leaked plans of artillery and air strikes on North Korean coastal targets hadn’t done the trick, the ROKAF issued a press release Wednesday that said, I quote, “If North Korea launches an armed provocation in the NLL, etc., the Air Force plans to respond promptly and powerfully. At the vanguard of the response, we plan to deploy F-15Ks.” And I quote the Chosun Ilbo, “This is interpreted as revealing the intention to deploy F-15Ks to launch precision strikes with long-range missiles or JDAMs if North Korea attacks our warships with coastal artillery or land-based anti-ship missiles, despite concerns of escalation.”
Again, to reinforce this message, the Air Force apparently released footage from some training exercises involving F-15Ks.
Some civic people believe this is all Lee Myung-bak’s attempt to focus attention away from worsening domestic opinion. Of course, then again, some people also say things like, “Would even the authorities of the United States, which is trying to ram through sanctions against the north to maintain its nuclear superpower hegemony, express dissatisfaction with the detailed live broadcast-like reporting through the media of intelligence on the North Koreans ICBM?”
(HT to Korea Economic Reader)
{ 17 comments… read them below or add one }
distraction or not, this should be on people’s minds a lot more. i look forward to seeing a Korea that doesnt take it in the ass so willingly.
I should point out here that a zero tolerance position towards northern aggression was part of DJ’s original Sunshine policy, so Lee’s stance is not exactly a throwback to 1992.
That picture of F-15K looks like it’s from Ace Combat 6: Fires of Liberation.
#3: You know your fighters are good when they start looking like video game aircraft.
Actually, I’m betting Little Elvis does not pull any stunts on the Yellow Sea due to the likely disproportionate response. My money’s on a DMZ provocation.
Some photos of F-15K’s being scrambled at the base from BEMIL CHOSUN website:
http://bemil.chosun.com/nbrd/gallery/view.html?b_bbs_id=10093&pn=1&num=5
We’ll see if it’s a throwback or not if North Korean anti-ship missile sites turn on their radar like they did in 1999 and 2002:
http://www.hani.co.kr/section-003000000/2002/07/003000000200207042010001.html
DJ also instituted rules of engagement that prevented South Korean ships from striking first. Let’s see if that’s still the case.
“DJ also instituted rules of engagement that prevented South Korean ships from striking first. Let’s see if that’s still the case.”
Were those instituted shortly before the 2000 summit meeting– you know the one that was only made possible because Park Jie Won (his chief of staff) bribed North Korean officials with cash allegedly supplied by Chung Mong Hun (the Hyundai exec who dove to his death after being indicted)?
Yeah, I’ve had enough of LMB’s responsible political positions. Let’s vote in the appeasers and enablers and throw good money after bad in another attempt to pretend away the problem, good little children that we are. God forbid the Korean people ever grow up and confront their issues as adults would. Better to play make-believe.
After all, if you ever decided to grow up, you’d have to face the facts of life, and well, we just can’t handle the truth.
You’d have to face the facts that reunification is simply not on NK’s agenda and that it can not be imposed by the South through bribes and childish thinking.
You’d have to face the fact that the rest of the world considers NK the most dangerous government on the planet.
And you’d have to choose to follow leaders like LMB who actually have Korea’s interests in mind rather than inspirational incompetents like KDJ and NMH who would rather fritter away their terms of office practicing political factionism.
The reason I left Korea after returning in 2002: I enjoyed the party for the first 2 years, and then just got tired of the state of suspended adolescence (유치한 사고 방식) that one must maintain in order to continue to function within this absurd society.
North Korea ratcheting up the pot is a given. We have to ask ourselves though, whether North Korea is actuallygoading the ROKs into retaliation, or even pre-emption. Nothing would be more satisfying to a regime that’s thinking of a leadership transition than circling wagons against a common enemy.
So the question is, do you hit back, or do you exercise some constraint at the cost of showing weakness in the hopes of not giving the NorKs what they want? Tough choice. I’m glad I’m not LMB (well, and not only for this particular reason too)
I think LMB is doing a fine job and recognizes that this is not an intra-Korea issue, but a global one, in which the international community needs to respond with a single voice. One hopes that there is some high level diplomacy between the US, China, Russia, Japan and SK on going beyond simple condemnation to the imposition of actual sanctions.
One has to bear in mind as well that NK holds 2 US hostages and 1 SK hostage.
As for LMB, a handful of demonstrators from progressive labor, civic and student groups skirmished with riot police after the funeral rites. The usual suspects attempted to create havoc and goad the police into violence as usual, and vandalized police buses with hoes, sticks, shovels and plastic pipes and pelted the police with rocks. The police to their credit have captured quite a few protesters. Considering that the leftist agitators could only scare up a sparse number of demonstrators, and a handful of idiot SNU professors, it appears that LMB has done a good job with this come out pretty well.
#9 Charlie Brown:
North Korea ratcheting up the pot is a given. We have to ask ourselves though, whether North Korea is actually goading the ROKs into retaliation, or even pre-emption. Nothing would be more satisfying to a regime that’s thinking of a leadership transition than circling wagons against a common enemy.
As much as I’d like to see the ROKAF get some live action mileage out of them billion dollar war toys, you might have point there.
But it’s high time to start calling North Korea’s bluff. This is like Texas Hold ‘Em but with greater stakes involved. I’m tired of the UN, the Security Council, the State Department, Hilary Clinton, et al issuing a lot of hot air without being able to back up those words with HARD POWER. South Korea needs to be more militarily confident versus North Korea. It’s high time South Korea put its multi-trillion-won investments in super-expensive military hardware to some good use by pulling some Israeli-style bombing raids on North Korean assets. One may question the wisdom of South Korea upping the ante on a belligerent neighbor with a mighty nasty arsenal aimed at Seoul over the issue of a un-perfected ballistic missile whose max range covers all of Russia, China, Japan and just barely the tip of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. Well, as I contemplate this matter from the safety and comfort of my armchair tens of thousands of kilometers away, a few North Korean rockets falling here and there is probably what South Korean society gone awry needs to get its shit together but that’s another story.
“If the North Koreans do launch an attack in the West Sea — which is likely, IMHO — expect South Korea to whack the North.”
Yes and Yes, absolutely.
Going of Andy’s comment above, I would go a bit further and say that what we have right now is what the “Sunshine Policy” would have been if the three pillars of the policy had been followed instead of being twisted into appeasement.
We’re seeing the Sunshine Policy in action, right now.
“But it’s high time to start calling North Korea’s bluff.”
That’s why I have mixed feelings about the way LMB has been probably using H1N1 as a pretext to block public gatherings. Sure, it’s an abuse of power and an affront to free speech and the right to assembly…But, fuck it feels good to see the Norks’ fifth column disarmed for once.
Besides, it’s not as if South Korea has a one party political system nor has LMB the right to run for re-election.
#13 SomeguyinKorea:
That’s why I have mixed feelings about the way LMB has been probably using H1N1 as a pretext to block public gatherings. Sure, it’s an abuse of power and an affront to free speech and the right to assembly…But, fuck it feels good to see the Norks’ fifth column disarmed for once.
During times of crisis, an enlightened tyranny is preferable to democracy.
“During times of crisis, an enlightened tyranny is preferable to democracy.”
Crises are often exaggerated or fabricated.
China decides that.
Aren’t you the same guy who posts the Franklin(?) quote every so often? The one that goes, those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither?
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