In the WaPo’s Pomfret’s China blog, John Pomfret explains why China won’t do more with North Korea:
First, about 2 million people will rush into China’s northeast as refugees. Not fun – and a huge tax on China’s already poor infrastructure. (An estimated 250,000 North Korean refugees already move back and forth between the two countries.)
Second, China will be faced with a tough decision: dispatch the PLA into North Korea? What happens if the PLA meets up with the South Korean or U.S. armies heading north?
Third, remember all that South Korean investment in China? We’re talking billions. It would all go home, into building a united country. (China is South Korea’s biggest trading partner, by the way.)
Fourth, a North Korean collapse means that China can forget about turning North Korea into an economic vassal state. (Talk to any South Korean interested in investing in North Korea. Any mine or industrial facility with any prospects of a profit is already a target of Chinese investment.) If Kim collapses, China’s firms are going to lose out to the Korean brothers from the south.
Fifth, how would a united Korean peninsula change China’s geopolitical position? It definitely wouldn’t help it. Right now, Beijing has an (admittedly wacky) Commie buffer state on their border. But at least it’s Commie. With a democratic, capitalist, united Korean peninsula, China loses out. (One of the under-reported stories in China is the depth of South Korea’s cultural influence in China. In the West, we like to think that China’s youth are “Westernized” or even “Americanized.” The reality is that they’re “South Koreanized.” That formulation is definitely unwieldy, but it’s closer to the truth.)
Six, China’s ethnic Korean population along North Korea’s border is not known for being restive. But what happens to those folks once the Korean peninsula is united? Greater Korea, anyone?
Pomfret leaves out another important factor. I’ll help him out, though:
Seven, the United States won’t reciprocate Chinese inaction by pleading powerlessness if the Japanese, South Koreans or (especially) the Taiwanese suddenly decide to go nuclear.
Enter Chuck Krauthammer:
(HT to Ampontan)
Now, I really don’t see Japan making that move for the reasons Roy Berman explains here and because, really, I can’t see Japan going through all the trouble when it already sits pretty comfortably underneath the American nuclear umbrella (admitedly, the same could have been said about the UK, France and Israel, all of whom went out and developed independent nuclear deterrents anyway). I’ll admit, I’m not up on the discourse in Japan, but just from what I’ve read on this side, it seems security-minded parties there are more keen on getting conventional first-strike capabilities to take out North Korean missiles before they’re launched than on developing their own nuclear deterrent.
South Korea might be a different matter. The nation’s most influential newspaper responded to North Korea’s nuclear test by, essentially, calling on South Korea to develop its own nuclear deterrent:
South Korea faces the most pressing threat due to North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs, but has its hands tied behind its back and is incapable of a substantial response due to its commitment to the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the Missile Technology Control Regime signed with the U.S. government. North Korea claims its rationale for having nuclear weapons is to defend itself. South Korea too now requires a deterrent. If the day comes when the republic and the lives of its citizens are threatened, we must take on the problems posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs by realizing that we can no longer accept the limitations of international treaties.
Today, the Kookmin Ilbo reports that some conservative lawmakers and politicians are calling for a reexamination of the country’s nuclear policy… although most lawmakers still oppose going nuclear.
As everyone knows, the South Koreans did try to develop nuclear weapons in the 1970s, with President Park Chung-hee operating a clandestine program up to the day he was assassinated in 1979.
{ 25 comments… read them below or add one }
So, does ANYONE actually have an endgame to this thing?
I don’t think so. Just easier to manage the situation until North Korea dies a natural death. And then the real fun begins.
Here is my answer to this joker.
To the First thought of his idiocy: No problem. NKs are escaping from NK. When the war breaks out, they will all hide underground or hills till they are liberated by SK or the US Forces. Actually many escapes in China will rush back into NK to meet the liberation forces.
To the Second thought of this fool: China is all willing to deploy its PLA into NK. Just love it. Just another Tibet.
To the third rubbish: China will just eat up SK money. Actaully, this may be the real reason for China’s prompting of NK to make trouble. So that, China can just eat up Korean and the Japanese investment.
To the fourth: China will rush in and take NK.
The Fifth: The United Korea will serve China. And, China will make the UK to fight Japan.
The sixth: WTF. So far from what is happening there. These people love China and make NKs into the Chinese.
South Korea is already considering the future of its defense. Per one article:
As it is now, South Korea has some cruise missiles (Hyunmu-3) which can reach 1,500 miles, thus can visit *all* the closer neighbors in the region.
While cruise missiles are cheaper to make than long-range missiles and stealthy, they require a technological capability that is denied certain countries in Asia so far (minus Korea), however there is some concern that, coupled with a pre-emptive defense policy, they lower the threshold to war in the region (cite).
P.S. a militarily strong PRC, coupled with the tendency to export weapons technology is not a good omen for the future.
Rather than be united with their richer brethren in the South, that is?
Um, stalemate on the 38th parallel?
So let me get this straight. Korea really really really needs the Chinese export market, but somehow the need for export markets will suddenly stop if there is unification?
Really? And here everybody else in the world assumed that the collapse of the NK regime was a precondition for turning it into a vassal state.
Loses out how, exactly?
Even if this were true, it’s significance would be..what exactly?
Um, nothing? I mean how significant are the Chosun Jok anyway?
As some wiseguy once pointed out, all opinions are NOT equal. That everyone’s entitled to an opinion is a misnomer. Everyone’s entitled to an informed opinion, not simply to an opinion.
damn you baduk, you beat me to the punch by 1 minute…
Time to start throwing around the charges of naivety. Firstly, he says this at the end of the article;
He needs to explain why China voted for the “presidential statement” at the UN when it was wildly known that North Korea was going to go ape shit over it. The more North Korea goes ape shit, the closer it comes to disappearing. The more they ratchet up tensions the more fragile they look. If China is really interested in keeping North Korea around, they ought to be pressurizing the North to cool off a bit. And the Kim regime doesn’t need nukes to stick around for decades. Only the North Koreans believe (proclaim) that. Just ask Cuba.
Agree with Baduk on the first point (agree with Baduk!?!).
Second point: They’ll shake hands.
Third point: China stands to gain a great deal from a peaceful Northeast Asia. A non-economic basket case in North Korea is good for business. Remember all that cheap junk and kimchi China sells to South Korea?
Fourth point: China is as likely to turn to North Korea into a vassal state as the US is to turn Mexico into a vassal state. Just ask the guys who drew up NAFTA.
Fifth: What China really wants geopolitically is to been seen in the same light as the US. As a world player who can make things happen and who stands up for the little guy. The UN is more important (currently) for China than it is for the US. Getting a deal in North Korea will do their world image no end of good, and will free up some pressure from places like Tibet and Taiwan.
Sixth: Greater Mexico anyone? (Yes, I know you’re all insanely worried about that – sleep well.)
I’m not predicting that China will magic up a deal and get the peninsula denuclearized. But I don’t think one should dismiss their public statements so lightly. When they really want something they are very open about it. Their PR machine about Tibet is very explicit. Just check Xinhua’s site.
Japan’s got enough plutonium to build 80 nukes in a few months. I’d start churning them out now if I were them.
Got a concerned email from Beijing this morning that Chinese citizens are agitated with this latest crap… the blogging community there is apparently way more amped up on this topic than expected. We may see more action, probably just to ramp down tensions, from the PRC this time.
And as to the comment about “a militarily strong PRC, coupled with the tendency to export weapons technology is not a good omen for the future,” I’d say “sounds like they want to be the US when they grow up.”
Second, China will be faced with a tough decision: dispatch the PLA into North Korea? What happens if the PLA meets up with the South Korean or U.S. armies heading north?
I believe that’s known as “the second section of the Korean War” to most historians…
Didn’t somebody say recently (Lankov? Myers?) that the Chinese fear of millions of NK refugees fleeing over the border is exaggerated?
1) Not all NKs will move to China. Not even most. I saw some studies years ago on predictions for the percentage of a mobile population. It will basically only be (largely) single men between certain ages, and some families living near the border. Not more than 30%, I imagine.
2) China has over a billion people. A couple million here or there will be a strain, but should not lead to the collapse of Chinese society. China can deal with it.
Now we know Mizar5 is a Chinese. Possibly an ethnic Chinese from Korea (Hwagyo).
Thank you, cm. I am all things to all people. That’s the price of greatness.
You welcome.
The Chinese will – and they have to. Of all the players in the region, the PRC is the most status-quo oriented. And for good reasons to – they don’t want to deal with a unified Korea, they don’t want to deal with a possible re-armed Japan. They have plenty of internal problems to deal with, let alone the “barbarians” to the east.
In that vein, Japan doesn’t have to go nuclear as the ever hyperbolic Krauthammer suggests. With conventional weapons increasingly being more powerful, even a conventional “first-strike” capability would seriously shift the balance of power in the region enough that the Chinese will have to take a serious look at whether their current “drag our feet and milk the status quo” DPRK policy is working. If the ROK and Japan together can muster enough conventional “first strike” capability to take out China’s deterrent, you have enough of a serious disturbance in the Force to remove the reason why these two countries are thinking about a “first strike” capability in the first place.
And yes, China is the only country that can do it. As China goes, North Korea goes – for better of for worse is for the crystal ball.
The caveat to all this is “credible capability.” I’m sure if the South Koreans and Japanese put their heads together they could develop an upgrade to the GBU-28.
One thing for sure, someone up there didn’t like the fact that the launch of the ‘satellite’ earlier this spring didn’t seem to impress anyone.
North Korea is like some kid at a swimming pool who keeps shouting, “Mommy, look at me! Mommmmyyyyy!!! Mommmmyyyyy!!!” in an increasingly shrill voice every time he’s about to jump in the water.
This thread is The Marmot’s Hole at its best. This is why I come here.
For an endgame, start with the best possible outcome. Which, I suggest, is an eventual deal between the U.S. and China that allows Korea to reunify (without nukes), like Germany.
Now work backward from that point.
I don’t for a minute buy the article’s assumption that a little pressure from China will lead to N Korea’s immediate collapse. N Korea survived the ’98 famine after all, and won’t want to go through that again. And it’s equally innaccurate to present a nuclear Japan as the main alternative to a non-nuclear Japan. China is equally fearful of a Japan protected by an anti-ballistic missile shield. Especially since Taiwan might also like to join once one is established. And, if that happens, Taiwan, Japan, the US (and maybe S Korea?) will have to partially combine command structures to coordinate operation of the nuclear defense shield. Basically you have the beginning of an E. Asian Treaty Organization, allied against China.
That’s what China could face if N Korea rocks the boat. N Korea is in the midst of succession politics, hence the saber rattling, but they want to eat too, and China can make them aware of limits.
North Korea’s latest antics allow China to play the good member of the international community. Think about that for a minute.
…If China takes a liking to it, North Korea will be shit out of luck.
Krauthammer’s blepharoplasty looks awful.
They’re not known for being restive because they’re so restive they’re not noticed enough to be known as such.
They might be interested in joining a unified Korean peninsula, but I don’t recall anything about their behavior to date that justifies his comment. I’m open to being reminded…
Chuck Krauthammer is calling for a nuclear Japan. But what about S.Korea? If Japan gets the nukes, S.Korea shouldn’t have them? I’m sorry, but it doesn’t work that way.
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