Nuke Test — Sorry About This — Fallout

by Robert Koehler on May 26, 2009

Not that anyone — least of all the North Koreans — should give a shit, but I’m told the world has condemned North Korea’s nuclear test.

It’s a rare, rare day when I find myself agreeing with a WaPo editorial… and yet, they’re on to something here:

It’s time, at last, to break this pattern and call Mr. Kim’s bluff. That doesn’t mean threats of U.S military action or a blanket refusal to talk with the regime; those tactics have been tried and have failed as well. Instead, Mr. Obama should simply decline to treat North Korea as a crisis, or even as a matter of urgency. The United States should press for the toughest sanctions it can extract from the Security Council and ratchet up its own measures, including a renewed squeeze on the regime’s access to the international financial system. It should seek greater support from South Korea, China and other nations to block the North’s attempts to export missiles or nuclear materials, and to help refugees fleeing the regime. It should stand ready to resume the “six-party” talks with North Korea sponsored by China and to engage in separate, low-level bilateral discussions if they offer the hope of progress.

There should, however, be no new economic favors to the North, no further political recognition, no grand visits by the secretary of state to Pyongyang. Mr. Kim, who is 67 and ailing, and who appears to be attempting to shore up his authority so as to hand it to one of his sons, should get nothing to help him with that project. Instead, to the extent possible, his regime should be undramatically but methodically strangled by sanctions — and any easing should be linked to concrete steps by the North. A starting point must be the release of two American journalists whom Mr. Kim is holding hostage and threatening to put on trial next week. “Such provocations,” Mr. Obama said of the nuclear test, “will only serve to deepen North Korea’s isolation.” U.S. policy should aim at ensuring that this prediction proves true.

This won’t make the Hankyoreh very happy, though, seeing how they’ve been bitching about Obama’s refusal to cave into North Korea “benign neglect” policy since the North Koreans started pouting and stamping their feet about it.

The Chosun Ilbo, however, is calling for South Korea to take measures into their own hands:

South Korea faces the most pressing threat due to North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs, but has its hands tied behind its back and is incapable of a substantial response due to its commitment to the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the Missile Technology Control Regime signed with the U.S. government. North Korea claims its rationale for having nuclear weapons is to defend itself. South Korea too now requires a deterrent. If the day comes when the republic and the lives of its citizens are threatened, we must take on the problems posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs by realizing that we can no longer accept the limitations of international treaties.

Yes! Yes! Yes!

South Korea’s NIS, meanwhile, is warning that North Korea may attempt to test fire an ICBM as early as today. Also rather interestingly, the head of the NIS said in a report that North Korea informed the United States and China just 20—30 minutes prior to the test that they were going to do it. The United States informed South Korea of this at the same time South Korea was reporting to the United States that it had detected seizmic activity in the North.

Politically, you could probably guess how things are shaking down. LMB and the Grand National Party are, needless to say, pissed to high hell, and announced Seoul had decided to join the PSI to prove it. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, called the nuclear test the result of LMB’s Cold War-era North Korea policies. What North Korea’s first nuclear test — conducted on late President Roh’s watch — was the result of, they did not say. Oh, and they also called LMB’s decision to join the PSI “irresponsible.”

The Grand National Party, meanwhile, said a funny — calling North Korea’s criticism of Seoul’s participation a “laughable lack of logic,” it said if North Korea were really interested in world peace and security, it could join South Korea in the PSI!

UPDATE: North Korea continues its assault on East Sea fishing stocks, test firing two more short-range missiles.

{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }

1 dokdoforever May 26, 2009 at 2:34 pm

I think the key here is China – the only nation with much leverage over N Korea. China opposes nuclear proliferation because they fear a nuclear Japan and a nuclear Taiwan. Rather than S Korea developing its own nukes, the best way to pressure China is for the US and Japan to speed up development of an anti-missile system and to make overtures to Taiwan to join in.

We should also keep in N Korea’s present domestic political situation in mind. Kim Jung Il is said to be preparing for succession in the case of his death, first to brother in law Jang as a caretaker, and then to his youngest son. As we saw in the case of China following Deng’s succession in the mid-1990s, succession crises in Communist systems tend to strengthen conservative institutions that hold power in the central committee of the party, like the military, for instance. Factions vying for power will appeal to the military for support by adopting a nationalist, hard-line, and this may explain N Korea’s present defiance. So, we may just have to wait a few months or years until Kim dies for the N Koreans to come back to the table again.

2 eujin May 26, 2009 at 3:14 pm

Thanks for clearing up the editorial position at THM. I was beginning to think that “do nothing” literally meant do nothing. I agree with the WaPo, but that doesn’t surprise me. I don’t agree with the Chosun Ilbo. Also no surprise.

I don’t think the time has come to start raising the stakes on the Chinese. We’re still in the let-the-North-Koreans-piss-the-Chinese-off-as-much-as-possible-and-see-what-happens phase. Containment is about the best that can be hoped for at the moment, plus a smidgen of goodwill and co-operative spirit to clean up the mess when things really do fall apart up North.

3 mcnut May 26, 2009 at 3:46 pm

yawn

4 Nomad May 26, 2009 at 8:33 pm

Yawn x 2

5 cm May 26, 2009 at 8:39 pm

I agree with #1. Everything that was pointed at by Wapo has been tried before – I see nothing new there. It’s time to throw in the towel of proliferation and pressure China. Quietly encourage and let Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan to put up their own nuclear shield defense. If China gets pissed, US should plead ignorance and apathy, then bargain with them. Countries like North Korea and China only understands force and belligerence. Everything else is viewed as exploitable weakness for them.

6 Richardson May 27, 2009 at 6:43 am

Better yet (referring to the WaPo suggestions), the U.S. could revive the BDA sanctions that actually got under Kim’s skin.

http://www.dprkstudies.org/2007/09/11/sanctions-forcing-north-korea-to-negotiating-table/

7 rmeurant May 27, 2009 at 9:02 am

An effective response from SK to the NK tests and missiles would be for SK to significantly strengthen its relationships with Japan.

8 JiMong May 27, 2009 at 9:24 am

A win-win strategy for both party that is MB and KJI, it will help to block the anti-MB movement in SK. With SK joining PSI as respond to NK Nuke test, KJI will strength its SeonGun policy to tighten up ordinary N Korean’s free will. What a well planned timing! KJI is really helping MB Admin. Or MB is so lucky.

9 JiMong May 27, 2009 at 12:52 pm

Which I heard from a taxi driver just before I came back from Seoul yesterday.

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