UPDATE: I have a few more thoughts over at the KT.
ORIGINAL POST: I was one of the guests on TBS eFM’s Evening Show last Thursday talking about the results of April 29th’s by-elections*. The problem with doing a 22-minute radio segment is that you cannot cover everything you want to in the allotted amount of time.
So, with the help of the good folks at the National Election Commission, I will touch on a couple of points (OK, one point backed up by a couple of facts).
The media accurately portrayed the results as a smack-down of the Grand National Party, but the Democratic Party also showed weakness. To me, the vote looked like a rejection of both parties:
- While the GNP only won one race (a local office in Seoul), the Democrats only won three (a National Assembly seat in Incheon, the mayor of Shiheung and a local race in Chungbuk.
- The GNP went 0-2 in Yeongnam and Gangwon-do, losing both races to independents. They did not even field a candidate in two local races in Gyeongju. Meanwhile the Democrats were 0-4 in contested races in Honam, winning one race in Jeollanam-do in which they had the only candidate. While one of the GNP and two of the DP loses were to National Assembly candidates who will join the respective parties, two of the DP’s loses were to the Democratic Labor Party
- The races in which the GNP and DP candidates took the top two places had the lowest turnout: Incheon National Assembly; 29.1%, Shiheung Mayor; 19.8%, local Seoul race; 16.6%. Only one of the other nine contested partisan races had a turnout of less than 38%. A choice of those two parties did not seem to excite voters much.
- Weekly polling at REALMETER shows that support for the GNP has plummeted but that there has not been any real uptick for the Democrats. If you look in the left column on their main page, you will see that the big gainer of the week has been the Democratic Labor Party. Of course, one poll is just a snap shot. I will try to remember to post on the results of their next poll to see if this week’s numbers stick.
In short, both parties are showing signs of weakness and have reason to want to retool before the next round of by-elections in October and local elections next year.
*I will try to remember to leave a heads-up here before I am on the air next time since I am sure many of you are dying to hear the sound of my lovely voice.
{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
Good analysis Andy. With the falling GNP and no uptick for the Democrats, is it that the independents are making some type of strong push? Are they a viable possibility of them coming alive during the upcoming elections?
t_song,
Not really. The thing about (real) independents is that, by their nature, you cannot ascribe general trends to their victories. If you could, then one party or another would co-opt their issues. That is why most countries only have two or three major parties.
Also, the three “independents” who won in the National Assembly elections where not true independents but dissatisfied members of the major parties. With candidates being selected by central committees, the independent candidacies have basically created the equivalent of open primaries. I don’t think it is any accident that those independents ran and won in the base regions of the GNP and DP. Like with the “Park Geun-hye independents last year, they will eventually rejoin their parties.
The real competition between the major parties in other parts of the country makes it more difficult for guys to “go the Rhee In-jae” route without handing the seat to the other side.
I also told my mum that it showed an equal failure for the Democrats when we were watching the news and they shouldn’t be so joyful..At least, Park Kunhye is still smiling. We had the second-by-second update of President Nomuhyeon’s big day repeat broadcast a la Groundhog Day surrealist style to distract us from the election news. It was all very entertaining and touching e.g. the yellow balloons.
Thanks Andy!
I wonder if a Kim Jongpil kind of faction will ever show through, i.e. a third party/man substantial enough to actually make a difference depending on which one of the other two they decide to back on the day like the Lib Dems.. I was hoping for 정몽준 to fill this role before he showed a truly snake-like side one night before the election when roh was elected.
Why don’t good people like Ko Gun want to stay in politics?
What do you think of Park Sunyung of 자유선진당 ?
She seems to be speaking a lot of sense in that typical school marmy way, but I am a bit skeptical after seeing a monster come alive in 전여옥.
Andy,
Great follow-up piece on the winners and losers. I subscribed to the KH while I was in Korea, though after the presidential election. Were you providing insights then as well?
Anyways, what can you say about 2MB’s approval ratings? During the FTA thing, I was in Korea and I remember him having just dismally low approval, and I’m wondering if he’s still that bad–or if he’s bounced back up somewhat.
To say he’s not reached the level of Roh, I mean, that guy had like 9% approval rating, right? He made Dubya seem like Gandi-popular or something.
I think the first and most important short-term point is this; that all parties, the GNP included, see this as a crushing loss for the GNP, esp considering the effort they put out in places like Bupyeong.
However, in some ways this is even more embarrassing for the opposition, because even when the GNP and all its many previous manifestations under previous names does poorly, it’s not necessarily because voters think there are more attractive options.
I think voters have “sent GNP/LMB a message,” and that it stops about there.
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