The Council on Foreign Relations has issued a report that, among other things, warns that it could require up to 460,000 troops to stabilize a post-collapse North Korea.
You’re best off reading the report — which can be downloaded here — on your own. Here’s the money shot, though:
How large a force would be required to bring security and stability to North Korea would depend on the level of acquiescence to foreign intervention. Based on previous experiences elsewhere, the rule of thumb for the number of troops required for successful stability operations in a permissive environment is somewhere between five and ten per thousand people. Because North Korea has a population of approximately twenty-three million, a successful operation could require between 115,000 to 230,000 military personal. In addition, tens of thousands of police might also be needed to support these forces in more basic tasks. Those requirements would place a significant strain on South Korea, particularly in view of the current plan to reduce its army by some 30 percent over the next decade. Although American forces would not likely become directly involved in daily security operations, they could provide vital assistance in the form of transportation services, command, control, communications and intelligence infrastructure, the distribution of humanitarian supplies, and the repatriation of refugees.
If former elements of the North Korean military, its security and intelligence forces, or its large special operations force were to resist the presence of foreign forces, the size of the needed stabilization force would escalate dramatically. Indeed, experience has shown that special operations forces are the most likely candidates to mount such resistance. Given the large number of such units in the North, the challenge could be considerable. In an insurgency, according to one Defense Science Board study, as many as twenty occupying troops are needed for every thousand persons, implying a force of 460,000 troops, more than three times the number of American troops in Iraq. Coping with such a contingency would likely be impossible for the South Korean and American forces to manage alone.
But your Uncle Marmot is here to tell you the good news. As of 2006, South Korea had a standing active force of 687,000 (.pdf) with a regular reserve force of 4,500,000. 560,000 of those regulars were in the ROK Army. This means South Korea could deploy 460,000 regulars to North Korea and still have plenty left over to defend Dokdo from the Japanese. This would also mean, of course, that the US would be required to contribute almost nothing to the effort beyond that which is expected of a close military ally — which in the South Korean case, means perhaps an engineering unit, a field hospital and maybe a token “peace and reconstruction” unit to build toilets and restore East German Bauhaus architecture in Hamhung.
{ 73 comments… read them below or add one }
I wonder how many experts the ROK have who have experience in dealing with thousands of brainwashed people…I wonder if any country has it.
But anyway, the more I think about it, the more I think that the best country to ‘assist’ the DPRK in its post-collapsed state is the ROK.
Better they than China, the USSR or even the Mongols coming back on the scene. And of course the U.S. really doesn’t need to send troops anywhere else right now, does it?
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When North Korea gets opened up, it’s population is going to be a whole lot less than 23-million.
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Chinese people like to tell you about how much money they saved.
Chinese people don’t bathe very well.
Chinese people are cheap. Being cheap is a virtue. Take Jing for example. He was bragging his ass off here about his Chinese-copycat iphone when the iphone came out. How much better his copy was, how smart he was to buy a non-real iphone, etc. I wonder if that shit is broken.
Chinese people deny the wrong in China being responsible for North Korea’s existence, China extorting North Korean resources for meager food aid (it is said China has mining rights for 50 years in North Korea for aid).
I just don’t like Chinese people.
This is not racism.
It’s like Polish people or Dutch people hating Germans, or Ukranians hating Russians.
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Re: 1, “I wonder how many experts the ROK have who have experience in dealing with thousands of brainwashed people…”
English teachers who’ve worked with *$&^ hagwon owners seem perfect:
- They’ve experienced the Korean cultural baloney (“4 seasons!”),
- They know the dirty tricks and justifications (“One pure race!”), and
- After working with screaming kids, working with adults would be a welcome change (but only for the first 5 minutes).
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there’s a Chinese movie that glorifies Chinese troops fighting in the Korean War.
I am extra nice to anyone who fought in the Korean War or had served in Korea during peacetime.
Personally, never ran into any Chinese guy claiming to have fought off the American Empire in 1951-1953.
Those guys are shit bags.
The Chinese and the Vietnamese and the Russians fought in similar ways. High human casualties were no problem for them.
If I get old enough, I’m gonna visit China, and somehow desecrate Mao’s picture in Jageumsung.
They’d probably release me due to old age, and I’ll make headline news.
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“After working with screaming kids, working with adults would be a welcome change (but only for the first 5 minutes)”
If it’s that bad for you, why not just get another line of work?
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Yes, yes it is racism. It is the exact definition of racism. Everything that drips out of your encrusted pie hole is racist useless sewage.
SHUT UP!
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I very much doubt there’d be much active resistance to the South taking over the North once the regime collapses. What would they possibly have to gain? Leave us alone and let us starve to death in peace?
The problem would be MASSIVE population movement South and the creation of enormous slums ringing Seoul and all of the problems that would cause…
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Before I get into nitpicking there are a number of recommendations for US policy from the report that might be of interest to regular M-Holers, since they’ve been debated round here in the past.
1) Promote behavioral change in the North Korean government rather than actively seeking to overthrow it.
2) Stick with the six party talks (for a number of reasons).
3) Defer to South Korean wishes in managing change in North Korea.
4) Keep working towards denuclearization even if this only entails further disabling of nuclear facilities and a gradual reduction of North Korea’s weapons stockpile.
5) A vague suggestion to promote/accept Chinese PLA participation in humanitarian operations outside China.
Sounds good to me, but I’m not sure everyone round here would agree with these points.
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Re: 6. cm “If it’s that bad for you, why not just get another line of work?”
Um… I already did. But thanks for making the wrong assumption about me, that’s very considerate of you.
I wasn’t talking about myself. I was talking about the English teachers. Research “3rd person” for an explanation.
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#2,
You’re probably right. Based on what I’ve seen on Google Earth, I strongly doubt North Korea has a population of 23 million.
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Maybe the July 2008 CIA estimate of 23,479,088 isn’t based on looking at Google Earth. On Google Earth do you just count people outside or is there some way of counting the number inside buildings too?
What happened to the census they were supposedly doing with UNFPA help in October 2008?
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2008/dprk-080130-rianovosti01.htm
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#12,
You must feel terribly proud of yourself for that one.
Have a look at North Korea from Google Earth. There aren’t many buildings for people to be in.
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12., Sadly, I think the problem with the lack of a completed UNFPA survey is the word, “will.”
As in this North Korea promise: “North Korea will conduct its first population census in 15 years…”
When North Korea promises “will” (in official releases) it all-too-often means, “start, then not finish.”
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13. “You must feel terribly proud of yourself for that one.”
Wtf?
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11. I hate to be morbid, but I did raise the issue….
How long before there aren’t enough people in North Korea to mount a noticeable resistance?
Tom Coyner, do you have any input?
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- They’ve experienced the Korean cultural baloney (”4 seasons!”),
I don’t understand where this is coming from. Why is the fact that Korea has four seasons “a cultural baloney”? Korea does have four seasons, no? Explain please.
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But your Uncle Marmot is here to tell you the good news. As of 2006, South Korea had a standing active force of 687,000 (.pdf) with a regular reserve force of 4,500,000. 560,000 of those regulars were in the ROK Army. This means South Korea could deploy 460,000 regulars to North Korea and still have plenty left over to defend Dokdo from the Japanese. This would also mean, of course, that the US would be required to contribute almost nothing to the effort beyond that which is expected of a close military ally — which in the South Korean case, means perhaps an engineering unit, a field hospital and maybe a token “peace and reconstruction” unit to build toilets and restore East German Bauhaus architecture in Hamhung.
One must keep in mind that the division of the Korean peninsula exists as a direct result of undue foreign influence during the past 150 years. The reason why NK and SK exists as separate entities hostile to each other is a direct result of constant foreign meddling and intervention. This is an irrefutable fact.
The problem was caused by foreigners. The solution lies in the hands of Koreans, both North and South. After being subject to the whims of foreign powers for so long, Koreans have to seize control of their own political destiny for once. The Northerners will have to rise up and rebel against the corrupt leadership. The South must take military ownership of a post-NK collapse scenario and keep the US and China at bay.
With this in mind, I also agree that the US should be kept to a minimal role in the event of a post-NK collapse direct military intervention. A substantial US intervention would invite a Chinese intervention, and that’s a path that we’ve all been through already. In this present multi-polar world, Korea must maintain neutrality and fashion itself as a “Switzerland of Asia”. Korean neutrality is a key component to successful unification.
Towards this end, the US would be well advised to withdraw all remaining troops from South Korea. These troops, which are currently idle, are better re-deployed in Afghanistan or Iraq and to help bring the conflicts in those areas to a rapid close.
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well, if I was a racist, I would have to hate Koreans as well.
it’d be like Dave Chapelle, who got away with portraying a KKK clansleader. A black dude who was blind, and married a blind white woman, and wrote hate books about blacks. KKK people came to see him, and decided not to tell him he’s black, afraid that it would destroy him.
To de-sinicize the world, I advise that Chinese men stop breeding entirely. Chinese girls should breed with non-Chinese men. Gong Li, I think?, is capable of modeling the masses.
Hey, it’s my right to hate Mao Zedong.
I am not a racist. I do not mistreat Chinese people. I just turn them down when they suggest we go to Chinatown for Chinese New Year’s or go eat at yet another Chinese buffet.(cheap, fatty food, horrible sushi filled with lard, barf worthy cleanliness, but cheap and greasy food)
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US would be well advised to withdraw what?
What the fuck?
Everyone who says that should be shot.
Because they are too stupid to justify breathing.
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WJK, I know plenty of gyopos like you, who think that weaning SK off of the US umbrella is crazy etc.
This demonstrates a pitiful lack of long-term, strategic thinking.
Why should Korean think that unconditional US military support will last indefinitely? Right now, the US military is stretched thin due to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The economy is imploding. The US cannot and will not be able to “afford” getting involved in another major conflict. Many analysts predict that US global power will be weakened in the coming years. Whether you like it or not, the US commitment to Korea may not survive the shift in global balance of power. Koreans need to grow a pair of balls, stop clinging on to the US like a scared child clinging to his mother’s skirt, and start preparing for that eventuality.
Furthermore, as I have mentioned Korea needs to start adopting a neutrality mode. This is an inevitable result of Korea being a small country surrounded by greater powers, much like Switzerland was during the course of European history. The difference between Switzerland during the 1900 – 1940 and Chosun was that the Swiss were able to fend off invasions. The difference between modern Korea and Chosun is that Korea now has the wherewithal, in terms of military, economic, and industrial strength to cause severe damage to any power wishing to invade the peninsula. Therefore, Korea must adopt neutrality. But if the SK government continues to maintain a large presence of foreign troops on its soil, that is not being neutral.
Finally, no sovereign nation depends on a foreign power, to the extent of having large numbers of troops of that foreign power on its soil for protection. That is contrary to the definition of “sovereignty”. As long as Korea has US troops, Korea’s sovereignty will be compromised in the eyes of the world.
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17. Re:
“- They’ve experienced the Korean cultural baloney (”4 seasons!”),
I don’t understand where this is coming from…”
NetizenKim… most inhabited places in the world have 4 seasons, not just Korea. But insecure and sheltered Koreans *constantly* brag about “Korea’s 4 seasons” as the greatest thing on Earth.
They are not.
To add further insult to Korea’s injury: They’re not even good seasons. Counting “Too Cold, Typhoon, Too Hot & Humid, and A Pretty Nice Autumn” as a point of national bragging is embarrassing to the claimant. Ask any non-Korean who has lived in Korea over one year.
And if the ‘educated’ folks in the south can brag about crappy weather as a point of their identity to the outside world…. woe be to anyone (Korean, or not) who goes to North Korea in an attempt to help them.
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#22
Well, I must say. All this about Koreans bragging about the seasons is new to me. Must be a recent development. I was in Korea in 95 for a year and no one ever bragged to me about seasons. Perhaps it was because I was ostensibly a Korean also. Maybe this is one of those things Koreans only say to foreigners,
Having four seasons, as if that is unique to Korea, is quite strange thing to be “bragging” about, no? Perhaps, it is the natural response to the pervasive general waegook ignorance about Korea. Personally, I’ve been asked if it ever snows in Korea. I’ve also been in conversations where it was obvious that the person I was talking with thought Korea was a Southeast Asian country. I’ve been asked plenty of times which part of Korea I was from, North or South. I’ve even once been asked which part was the Communist one, and the person who asked that had previously been stationed in Korea as a GI.
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Japan and Germany are doing fine, and even better than France, with US military occupation.
No one questions their statehood.
Korea is different. North Korea has elected to rely on China, economically and militarily. There are 2 million plus troops of Chinky faces across the Aprok and Dooman rivers, with the sole mission of preparing for war against the United States/Japan/South Korea, and to keep North Korea poor.
There are not enough firepower or manpower to win against the Chinese.
I understand the US has zero interest in fighting the Chinese. They showed tail against the Vietnamese and the Chinese, who frankly didn’t give a damn about 2x to 3x the number of casualties.
However, US military presence keeps the status quo.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
Swiss are different from Koreans. They had terrain to fight off Empires who wanted a subjugated route to Rome. They actually won most of these battles. Koreans did not. Swiss encouraged commerce and trade skills early on. The Koreans focused on learning Chinese.
Korea cannot be neutral when there is North Korea and China, with China expressing interest in taking northern Korea and calling it “inner Korea” similar to “inner Mongolia”.
Korea has 4 good seasons. Africa, South Asia, South America, Middle East, Russia, Northern Europe, have crap seasons. The Hot places either have bugs requiring drugs, or the dry and hot places literally have nothing interesting other than oil. The cold places are good for winter sports, but a damn sorry place to live if you are poor.
Even in America, New York may have comparable weather to Korea, but the other places like LA, always hot and dry, Chicago, cold and dry, and short sun seasons, Deep South hot and humid, Midwest cold cold cold.
Korean weather is like New York tri state weather. It’s a gem. Rare, but dirtied by Chinese hwangsa.
If it was legal, I’d make sure all the shit I take gets express mailed to the Chinese Communist Party.
I hate Chinese men, Chinese girls, Chinese children.
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Geeeoooorge Washington… He’ll save the children but not the British children…
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there’s not a lot of 4 season places on earth.
Majority of the world has crap seasons, favoring one side or the other, hot or cold.
Sure, England has 4 seasons and so does most of West Europe, but there is less sun, and where there is more sun in Italy, there is less snow, unless you move closer to the Alps.
season wise, based on my experience and recollection, Korean weather is good. It’s not heaven, but it has an upside.
Like the macintosh laryngoscope or the curved gochu.
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Debating with wjk, reminds me of a certain saying about throwing pearls to pigs. Over and out.
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Hey, neutrality is fine… as long as it’s not neutrality guaranteed by US security commitments, a.k.a. the Northeast Balancer Theory.
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Actually, it’s not. But that’s another discussion, as is most of wjk’s commentary.
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Thanks for mentioning the protection of Dokdo, was frantic about that mid-way through this fine post.
But seriously; have we learned nothing from George Bush? An occupation of N. Korea will see the S. Koreans being greeted as liberators! Mission accomplished! Bring it on!
Thanks GWB and WJK (of course)
Bobby
http://idlewordship.com
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just trying to be funny.
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NK – the 4 seasons thing. I’ve actually seen it used as an advertising campaign for Korea, outside of Korea, so don’t try and turn that on the waygooks! It’s something I hear all the time, I’ve seen it in Korean textbooks, and every time I ask students to write an essay it’s sure to surface as an amazing aspect of Sparkling Korea.
And don’t start throwing stones about geography either. This is the country where I routinely hear that Aprica is one country, where everyone speaks ‘Ooga Booga’. Or how about the time when I asked studenst to show me Korea on a world map, and very few could. Many poinbted to India, and memorably one pointed to Italy. At least they got the peninsula thing right.
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I doubt that Koreans would have the stomach for reunification, or indeed any kind of fight. Ask any former West German how they felt when the Ostis came and started diluting their standard of living. Forget the elation of when the Wall came down. It takes a lot to give up the latest cellphone, Vuitton bag and fancy hairdo. Also I would have to question the moral fibre of the young Koreans I see, peacock like guys and foot stamping, infantile women.
And in the interests of fairness, I would apply the same to most developed countries (though Korea is still developing, on the face they are developed).
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None of his commentary is worthy of a discussion. That’s why only a few sick cutters inflict harm on themselves and others by responding to his posts.
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Just as Dorothy could always return to Kansas by clicking together the heels of her ruby shoes, Koreans have always been able to reunify. If one side would surrender sovereignty to the other. Koreans did not draw the line at the 38th Parallel, but they have chosen to remain divided, or at least the South Korean people have. When both sides were ruled by dictators, one could argue that inter-Korean relations did not reflect the will of the people, but for the last twenty years Korea has been a democracy with a politically active citizenry. If the South Korean people really wanted Yankee to go home, the Eighth Army would be sunning themselves in Hawaii.
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flickr.com/photos/22837700@N06/2193732107/in/set-72157603720113105/
fuck Chinese people.
Chinese people=bugs, pigs.
fuck China.
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Seriously now…isn’t it about time wjk was set free?
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#33 Sonagi,
I’m not a sick cutter – I don’t think the others that routinely respond to wjk are, either, so you’re completely incorrect in your assumption there.
However, I agree with #36 – it’s time for him to be set free.
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I apologize.
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Let’s assume becoming a physician isn’t just wjk’s delusion.
God help his Chinee patients.
Then why do so damn many Koreans choose to live there? I mean, if Korea’s four seasons are so wondrous as you say (and thanks for proving our point to willful contrarian “Netizen Kim”), why would they choose to live in Southern California compared to places in the U.S. with a climate closer to Korea’s?
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God bless you, woman, for stating the plain truth. Take note, Netizen Kim.
I wonder if Koreans in Shilla, Baekje, etc. bemoaned their “national division”.
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wjk — Sorry, but I don’t believe there’s much more we can do for you.
Commenter banned.
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Netizenkim:
What a complete load of rubbish. Koreans are responsible for Korea’s division.
The Korean peninsular has traditionally been divided. Chosun was merely an interlude of unity in an otherwise long period of partition; go back to the three kingdoms and before that and what you’ve got is a people perpetually warring and divided. The idea that the evil foreigners are to blame for the division is a pretty common idea and it serves the Korean victim complex perfectly. But it simply isn’t true. Koreans are responsible for the division of Korea.
Did the Japanese divide Korea? No. (They did sow discontent, and this contributed to the rise of comminism, but that’s not enough to put the blame for disunity at their feet.)
Did the soviets divide Korea? No. They introduced the idea of communism, but they didn’t twist any arms. Unless you prescribe to the theory that Koreans are mindless sheep unable to think for themselves, you have to admit that it was Koreans who took the idea upon themselves to champion. Kim Il Sung used the soviets for his own personal conquest attempt. Don’t forget, the soviets were ostensibly “advisors”. They did very litle occupying or coercing. After teh Korean War when they were of no more use he saw them off. (sort of. He kept accepting soviet bloc money for awhile).
Did the US divide Korea? No. The US drew up a demarcation line with the soviets, but for this South Koreans should be eternally grateful: they opposed the march of cumminism throughout the peninsular. In fact, without the US Korea may wel have been unified: but it would have been under the eternal presidency of the Kims.
Did China divide Korea? No. They certainly helped prolong the war, but again, it was North Koreans who invited the PVA into the country, and who ushered them out when the job was done.
And why isn’t Korea unified today? You can argue al day about whether or not foreign powers want a unified korea or not, but you can’t avoid the fact that the power for reunification is well and truly in Minjok hands. Yet for 55 years the opportunity hasn’t been taken.
Why? Because Koreans can’t come together peaceably, simple as that. The North Korean regime is too self-serving and the Nork people to brutalized (by their own Korean government) to act. And the South Koreans? If you want my opinion on why the ROK people don’t (can’t) follow the German example, click on my name and read my last post on the matter. Mostly, it’s because of petty bigotry and greed.
Your argument that foreigners are responsible for Korea’s division is a typical victimhood mantra that avoids the uncomfortable reality that most of Korea’s problems (present day and histopical) are caused by – wait for it – Koreans.
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Can’t we give wjk one more chance? Notwithsanding his tendency to insult broad swaths of the human race, he does occasionally come out with some worthy comments. Take this one:
It’s not heaven, but it has an upside…Like the macintosh laryngoscope or the curved gochu.
I imagine right now our departed friend is weeping somewhere.
Moving on: Regarding the 4 seasons –
Aside from having heard it half a hundred times in the ROK, it was one of the first things our guide told us when we went to North Korea. Since most things have stood still in Ye old Joseon for 50 years, I’d say this curious quirk has quite a pedigree.
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To be fair to the ROK side, however, to claim that South Korean can’t follow the German example because of “petty bigotry and greed” seems rather unfair. If Australia were divided into a democratic, prosperous Eastern Australia and a starving Stalinist West Australia run by some some quasi-genocidal communist aristocracy in Perth, how many Eastern Australians would be willing to give up some of their political freedom and economic prosperity to “embrace their Western cousins politically, culturally, economically and even ideologically, to a degree” in the name of national unity? The two sides are so different — and one side, bluntly speaking, so loathsome — that “compromise” has become impossible, just as it would be for, say, Sweden and Saudi Arabia to compromise to form a single political entity. This is more than just South Korea building a welfare state as a nod to socialist values.
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You were warned, WJK. I offered you a path to salvation but not even I can help you now.
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Fair comment; I guess it’s particularly harsh to cry greed when it’s their children’s futures on the line. But I don’ think it’s a stretch to accuse South Koreans of petty bigotry towards the saeteomin, particularly when you hear all the grandiouse talk about reunification and then read about the treatment the (handful) of Norks actually recieve when they get here.
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I’ve been anecdotally polling Germans, both East and West, about reunification for the last 20 years or so. While most of the West Germans in the mid-1990′s would say things like “we should have built the wall higher and longer”, most today say reunification was “a good thing”.
Was in Berlin a couple of years back and you can tell which parts are East and which parts are West because the Western parts have lots of dowdy looking buildings from the 1960′s and 1970′s (around Zoologischer Garten for example) whereas the East has all the really new stuff, like Alexander Platz and Unten den Linden (OK, maybe not Ostkreuz).
The same thing is also very clear on the German-Polish border. Travel in a fancy modern train to Frankfurt an der Oder, which all looks very nice and modern and then cross the border into Poland and you’re back in what East Germany used to look like (not that Poland doesn’t have its charms – but I half expected to see a steam train chuffing along.)
I still remember how East Germany used to be before unification. Black and white TVs, a rustic rural feeling even in the capital, shops that didn’t ever look like they were really open. You’d be hard pressed to find any of that anymore, well, except for here
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7857256.stm
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What were we originally talking about? Oh, the CFR report. I take it from the lack of dispute that everyone agrees with the five points I listed, or has this discussion moved to the Me Sad/Breen post already?
The nitpicks:
p.33,
Presumably. But then why would anyone at the Council on Foreign Relations know or care about what their military was doing in collaboration with foreign allies?
p.34,
I must have missed that one in the Pacific. Probably because all the media coverage in December 2004 was dominated by the tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Just as well I don’t work at a foreign relations think-tank.
I guess we’re moving to the “Me Sad” post then?
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No doubt talbukja get a less-than-warm welcome in the South, especially considering the unification rhetoric, as you well point out. Discrimination and mistreatment of defectors — even (and often!) by other defectors — is pretty well documented But I think reflects an ugly truth — and the one that really, really bodes ill for reunification — namely, that many talbukja are simply unemployable outside of a limited number of low-paying professions. I don’t want to suggest they’re lazy — the fact that they made it to the South at all proves their determination — but yeah, they’re a brutalized bunch ill-equipped to function in any society other that North Korea’s. And when reunification finally DOES come, the South is going to have to deal with 20 million such people, and that kind of influx would strain even a society composed of clones of Mother Theresa and Bono.
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“Can’t we give wjk one more chance?”
Hopefully not. I think the Marmot made the right call.
“Notwithsanding his tendency to insult broad swaths of the human race, he does occasionally come out with some worthy comments.”
For every supposedly “worthy” comment, there were dozens more that, as you alluded to, were: a)idiotic, b)hateful, c)somewhat unintelligible or d) a combination of the aforementioned categories. Let him find some other place to annoy and alienate people.
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All true. So why do so many people subscribe to the theory that reunification is inevitable and that it’s just around the corner? Seems like every month or so some think tank or other is proposing a new plan for the “looming” matter of reunifying the peninsular. I’d like to be proven otherwise, but I just don’t see it happening.
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You’re insufferable. Can the shtick.
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Ahh wjk, you got banned! By a white guy too, clearly a race-related move, right, you little ….?
Anyway, it might be a little more lonely now living in your parents’ basement unable to “talk” to your only “friends” (us here at the MH), but look at the bright side–your 스타크랩트 능력 is bound to improve.
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I ask nearly every conversation class I’ve ever had if they think reunification will happen in their lifetimes. 100% have answered “yes,” though no one knows how or when. This is hardly a scientific poll, but I’ve taken to thinking that students answer “yes” more out of a sense of cultural duty than any actual analysis of the situation.
As for me, I’m hoping unification happens soon. I’m hoping that Pepsi, McDonalds, Starbucks, et al will be paying good consultancy money to any Westerner who can speak 한국말. (I’m joking . . . okay, maybe half-joking.)
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Thank you, thank you, thank you Robert. If I were planning to have children, I would name my first-born after you.
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You’d name your first-born “Marmot”?
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So hoju_saram, which one of your country’s traditional divisions do you identify most with? Eora? Kulin? Arrernte? Or perhaps you’re more of a Mercia man, or maybe Wessex? Would you rather represent the Dalmatae at the Olympic Games?
I suspect many people in Unified Silla felt a bit like this. But once Koryo got going, people like our friend Gang Gam-chan helped forge a certain sense of unity. This isn’t much different from any other nation on the planet. Joseon was around for longer than the United States and Australia combined.
I happen to think that “four seasons” is a pretty good way to describe the climate in Korea. Four very distinct seasons. Winter and summer might be a bit like New York but does New York have the autumnal colors? Perhaps Upstate. But what about the cherry blossoms in spring? I also think that three of these seasons are pretty great.
Yes, lupin, a non-Korean, who has lived in Korea over one year. But my opinion on this matter can be safely dismissed as I also think Korea is a great tourist destination and Seoul is one of the most beautiful large cities in the World.
I also think Netizenkim has a point about the foreign influence, which Sonagi cannot dismiss so easily with just a click of the heels.
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“Seoul is one of the most beautiful large cities in the World.”
Please, Euljin. You are just inviting more mockery to Korea. This place is already a big fat joke (an unfortunate admitted reality), without you adding more gasoline to the fire. I had to re-read your old post to confirm you really wrote that.
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51. “So why do so many people subscribe to the theory that reunification is inevitable and that it’s just around the corner?”
Because Korea never finished it’s Civil War. The commies were winning until the Outside World stepped in, and the folks from the peninsula have never forgotten it. Or forgiven. Which is understandable.
But it also stops progress.
I’ve never met a Korean who would admit, “The USA (vis-a-vis the UN force) made life in South Korea better than it otherwise would be.” Which is too bad. I can understand being embarrassed regarding the need for help… but being self-conscious (like South Korea is) is really holding back the hard-working Koreans from mopping up on the global stage.
I mean, the Japanese got nuked, dealt with the cultural awkwardness, and have gone on to advance themselves. South Korea just wallows in it’s self-pity and manages to do well only in industries which the USA gave up on.
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eujin,
Sorry, I don’t get it. I’m not arguing that aboriginals, anglos and some obscure Croation tribe should be trying to get back together (if they were ever together). The analogy simply doesn’t work.
Perhaps it would be better to ponder all the empires and states in the world that have been broken up and have never been rejoined. The Greeks once pined for a “Greater Greece” which included their brothers on Ionian coast who had once been a part of the Athenian Empire, but soon gave up on the idea; likewise the Ottomans yearned for a reformation of their empire after it fell apart, but have given up that dream too. What I’m saying is that Joseon and South Korea may one day put aside the idea of reunification, just like a hell of a lot of other partitioned people have done throughout history.
I know, its a shocking idea.
How the Arrernte or the Wessexmen debunk that possibility I don’t fully get.
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eujin (#57):
give us evidence that there is enough consensus just
among South Koreans that would make reunification a
realistic option.
the ‘foreign influence’ factor, no doubt about it.
we won t see a unified Korea without good will / support from its neighbors. what does the SK government do to improve the (by and large) hostile
relations with them?
even the economic heavy weight Germany (which in
comparison experienced only a ‘light-zero-fat’
version of division), sought support, in a rather
pragmatic way, among all parties involved once the
opportunity to reunite emerged.
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Foreign influence or no, both Koreas are still making choices that reflect their own interests, or at least in the DPRK, the interests of the ruling elite only. USFK exists because a US military presence in South Korea is in the interests of both countries. Divided and free rather than united and enslaved isn’t much of a choice, but it’s still a choice, and one that I’d make if my country were divided like the Koreas. Even if I were living in the enslaved half, I’d still figure my country was better off in the long run with one-half prosperous, free, and engaged with the world.
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The Koreans and the Japanese do a nice job landscaping to maximize seasonal changes. The climate and flora produce equally spectacular falls and springs. However, speaking as a native Michiganian who can’t fathom a winter without snow no matter how cold, Korean winters are drab; only the mountains see much precipitation.
In the US, the northern Appalachias excel in fall colors while spring is king in the south. Shapely pink and white dogwoods outlast cherry trees, showing off their pastel colors for 2-3 weeks, rather than dropping off after 4-5 days. Purplish redbuds contrast beautifully with the spring green leaves of non-flowering trees. Perhaps the one part of the US that rivals Korea and Japan in seasonal beauty is Pennsylvania and West Virginia, mountainous in parts and home to fall favorites like the magnificent sugar maple, whose leaves may wear up to three colors, yellow, orange, and red, and spring beauties like the dogwood and the redbud.
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I know that pawi left of his own accord, but I think Robert should ban pawi too for completeness sake, a preemptive banning should the death of wjk resurrect pawi in the former’s place.
Ah, but we still have baduk, aka wjk senior.
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I’m just jealous that wjk gets more citations than I do.
But that’s what I think. I’ve debated this many Koreans and they also think I’m mad so I don’t see why it should reflect badly on Koreans.
A sizeable portion of the city is taken up by a (green) national park. That’s not something many other 10 million plus cities can say. And that doesn’t include all the other parky, hilly bits. If you ask me it compares favourably with Osaka, Tokyo, Shanghai, Bangkok, Jakarta, Delhi, Cairo, Sao Paolo, Mexico City, LA, New York, London, Moscow, Paris (even)…Even if you levelled all the hills and turned the trees into apartments it would still be better than Osaka.
One of my European friends once explained to me that the reason I think this is because “you live in paradise”. Well, duh. I do have forested hills on three sides of my apartment, and on the side where there are no hills there’s a park. From my balcony I can see Namsan, Bukhansan and the 63 building. Maybe if I lived above a noraebang in Bucheon and had to commute every day I wouldn’t feel this way. Who knows?
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hoju_saram,
It sounded like the point you were making in #42 was that Koreans should give up on the idea of unification because they have traditionally been divided. I may have got the impression that that is what you were implying because of your earlier point that many South Koreans already had given up.
My point about the Aborigines, Anglo-Saxons and Croatians was that even though Australians have “traditionally been divided” (for 40,000 years) they now have a very strong sense of Aussie-ness (after only 200 years) and most would be a bit miffed if the Indonesians and Brazilians helped set up an independent Western Australia. Maybe you disagree?
I actually have heard Greeks pining for Ionia in Turkey. Greeks share a lot of curious traits with Koreans – I think we covered that a few months back. And most of the nutty Islamic groups are trying to revive the Ottoman Empire, or at least the Caliphate.
The Jews managed to come back after two thousand years, despite disappearing to different continents, learning different languages, adopting different customs.
What drives people to feel a sense of kinship and nationhood is often very strange. I’ve been trying for years to figure out what the Samoans feel about their division, but it’s hard to get a straight answer. The vast majority of Koreans, on the other hand, give a very straight answer.
If all you’re saying is that Koreans may give up on the idea of unification in the future, then I can agree with that, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
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I know I am too late for anybody to take notice, but here goes anyway:
1) four seasons thing: one of my acquaintances used to work at KOIS for http://www.korea.net – the Korean government’s official information portal. He told me that he was driven nearly batty by the prepondrance of stories he used to have to edit saying that Korea was unique in having “4 distinct seasons.”
2) foreigners meddling korea: it was foreign meddling in Korea that freed this peninsula from Japan in 1945. This is something I don’t recall ever hearing a Korean ever say. And yet it is a fact, just as the “4 seasons thing is a fact.” But while one fact is endlessly repeated, the other is endlessly left by the wayside.
3) foreigners are ignorant about Korea. Yes, just as “foreigners” are ignorant about Australia. Koreans have asked me if it snows anywhere in Australia, and assert confidently that Canberra is the capital. We all need to get used to the idea that people outside our nation (and sometimes people inside it) know precious little about where we come from. The Chaser had some marvellous fun with this a few years ago when asking Americans on the street to show which country should be invaded after Iraq. They deliberately showed a map where some country names had been changed. One man stuck a pin in Australia relabelled as North Korea (New Zealand was South Korea). “I didn’t realize North Korea was so big!” he said. See here: http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=fJuNgBkloFE (with subtitles).
3) Koreans must unite: I came back to Korea believing that North Korea will collapse in my lifetime, and hoping to help out in some small way. Although I still believe and hope that NK will change dramatically, I do not think that the collapse of NK and unification with SK are one and the same thing. And as I talk to younger Korean adults (under the age of 40) who have no relatives living up North, I find more and more apathy – and sometimes even disdain – for the idea of unification. It surprised me in the beginning, but no more. Not to say that it will happen, but (a) it might and (b) NK collapsing does not necessarily mean unification.
4) The SK government had (maybe still has) programs to train a number of SK teachers to carpetbag north and teach NK citizens in the ways and ethics of liberal capitalism when the government up there collapse. I hope they are trained to handle and counter years of propaganda.
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To earth_visitor from Japan,
Please note, South Korea’s neighbors are China, NK, Japan and Russia; all aggressive & hostile to SK in one way another. We all know NK is most hostile to SK because of their insecurity and as for China and Japan also very aggressive to SK because they want to influence Korea. SK have done all they can to improve the relations with neighbors.
Also, I strongly believe that SK should use ‘One Korea’ policy then SK will have no problem winning friends because SK’s economy is more than 100 times bigger than NK. I’m sure both China and Japan would choose SK over NK as their trade partner.
SK should use its economy as weapon in this financial crisis and cut off all communications with countries who supports NK.
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hamel,
It’s never too late to say something sensible. I agree on all points. I’d also like to confidently assert that Canberra is the capital of Australia and yes it does snow.
I’m sorry you’ve never heard a Korean say that foreign meddling saved the peninsula from the Japanese in 1945. Maybe you need to get out more often, or maybe you just need to phrase it as a direct question. By the way, now that you mention it, I’ve never heard a Danish person say that it was foreign meddling that led to North Schleswig being returned to Denmark in 1920. I’ll have to look up what it says about that in the history books.
There are a lot of memorial sites and museums around about Korea dedicated to the UN effort in the 1950′s. The Belgium and Luxembourg site in Soyosan is in a bit of a sorry state, but there are still a lot of people who remember the guys that came from overseas.
Whatever plans the ROK government has laid out with training a few teachers, it won’t be anywhere nearly enough when the day comes. The same is true of trained lawyers to fight all the land ownership battles.
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Eujin: nice to know someone is reading what I feel compelled to write.
Looking back now I feel embarrassed by the gaffes: 2 number 3s, and I wrote the actual capital of Australia, instead of Sydney, which is the city people often tell me is the capital there.
I like your style, Eujin, and your spontaneous displays or urbanity and erudition. You’re the type of person I’d like to meet offline and have a beer/wine/coffee with. I take it you are in Seoul?
While I appreciate your point about North Schleswig, I don’t really feel it negates my point. I don’t think it is because I am not getting out enough. I have met many Koreans since my involvement with this nation began in 1996, and have heard many things.
And what stuck with me was that, while people have said that America helped out in the Korean War, they haven’t to my memory said (without prompting or asking) that America was the liberator of Korea in 1945.
Furthermore, what is interesting is that during the Roh administration, the picture which used to feature prominently in the front of each high school textbook in Korea for decades – the signing of the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea; October 1, 1953 – was removed from the new revision of the history text.
What I am saying is that I see a gradual downplaying of the public memory of positive US intervention in Korean affairs. Where positive memories fade, negative stuff can stick around longer, and inflame passions. So we have seen over the last few years a focus on US involvement in civiliana massacres before/during the Korean War, allegations of complicitness in Gwangju Massacre of 1980, the two schoolgirls’ tragic deaths, etc.
There are facts in all these things. Some get repeated and some get forgotten. In Liberation Day speeches of recent years, it has been hard to find reference to America’s role in Korea’s liberation. Don’t take my word for it – ask the Marmot. Syngman Rhee, for all his faults, was always quick to acknowledge it.
“There are a lot of memorial sites and museums around about Korea dedicated to the UN effort in the 1950’s.”
Yes, yes there are. How many Koreans visit them is another matter, of course. Gosh, I remember visiting the War Museum in 2004, and finding that the labels (written in hangeul) on the external flagpoles for two nations were incorrect. Goodness knows how many years they flew there like that before I went inside the museum and told somebody. They didn’t seem, overly concerned, but said they would look at it.
Heavens, imagine if, on some future memorial in Iraq one day, the labels for Korea and Japan were mixed up under the flags!
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The point about North Schleswig wasn’t intended to negate your point. It was just something that crossed my mind when thinking about your point.
Do they leave the flags in question up night and day, in all weathers? That’s not very respectful. I’d hope that people at the National War Memorial would know better than that. Maybe someone was just tired in the morning when they put them up (as I am tired now – Super Monday and all).
It wasn’t the Australian and New Zealand flags that were mixed up was it? I have a friend, she is half-Australian and half-Kiwi and has a PhD, and I was making a joke about the two flags one day and she looked at me like I was nuts. Turns out she didn’t know what the difference was.
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As I recall they were flags of 2 European nations, and at least one of them was Scandinavian. I can’t say for certain if they leave those flags up all night and day. Good question. Somebody else (General Paik?) might know more than I.
As to your flag-addled Aussie-Kiwi friend, she should just know better. Everyone knows the flags are the same except for the jar of vegemite in ours!
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