It is that time again folks.
Yep, time to share my latest piece over at the KT. This one is on the ongoing conflicts with the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.
One bit:
Did the “running dogs” of South Korean business really think that they would do any better? Considering North Korea’s record with foreign investors, it is hardly a shock it would not care how its actions would affect the South Korean businesses that have invested in the Gaeseong complex.
(Yes, South Koreans are “foreign investors” in North Korea.)
Michael Breen has a good piece on Gaeseong in the KT that covers some of the same ground.
{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
Did any of the chaebol heads think that this wasn’t anything but a give-away to the Norks? They, most of anyone, must have realized that possession/use/access to and profits from the factories would be subject to the whims and vagaries of Pyongyang.
Thank the lord. I thought that time would never ever come.
Nice article Andy. Actually I prefer it to Breen’s. I think he gets a bit carried away. I agree with your point about the balloons being a distraction, but it does raise a question. One can argue that the closure is a response to some short-term immediate problems with Kim Jong-il’s health, or that the decision is based on more long-term reasoning that Gaesong and related projects are slowly undermining the entire state (your Daily NK point), or that it is an attempt to wring economic concessions out of the new government in Seoul. Which one is it, or is it all three?
One can speculate that the decision is being taken at the highest levels and perhaps indicates a desire to head-off some of the hardliners in the military? If it is the third reason and somehow 2MB is able to just ignore them, does the North then need to up-the-ante by doing something else?
Thanks.
I think the main reasons for the partial lock-down are mostly internal, and any additional benefits they might from an overreaction from Seoul would incidental.
First, MB should do nothing on his side to up the ante (such as suspending SK operations in Gaeseong). Giving more concessions would be counter-productive in the long term. I think that ignoring provocations is the best bet at this point.
BTW, my favorite book on the subject is “Over the Line” by Chuck Downs.
In the late 1950′s, European and Canadian scholars and politicians began visiting China, flirting with the idea of building economic and diplomatic ties with the communist Chinese government in order to ensure peaceful relations and, eventually, greater freedom in China. The whole idea of using economic development in such a manner has proven to be a wasted effort when it involves North Korea. Its government is simply terrified of the changes that have occurred in China as a result of its economic development. They fear that change in North Korea will more likely occur as it did in Romania, not China. Which is why it will only allow economic zones away from large urban centers and tourist traps high in the mountains (all protected by armed guards who will shoot on anyone who wanders near the barbed wire). Yup, the Sunshine Policy sure was a success.
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