Well, at least it’s getting cooler again.
Open Thread #72
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{ 91 comments… read them below or add one }
First!
After posting on another thread, I googled ‘how to make a hotlink’, The first result was ‘How to Make a Taser – College Humor Hotlink’.
I think this is gonna be a fun weekend…
Have any of you tried BoShinTang (dog meat stew)? Just curious.
When I first came back to Korea 20 years ago, I was appalled that some Koreans ate BoShinTang. My parents tricked me into eating it by calling it wolf meat. It tasted great, loved it ever since.
Have eaten it.
Turn about is fair play too. I tricked my wife into eating alligator, ostrich, and camel.
#3,
Tried dog soup – can’t say that I was that impressed with it. The ol’ lead in the pencil idea is one I’ve never cottoned to, and I imagine Spot thinks so, too. Plus, if I remember correctly, Koreans (like Cambodians) think you have to beat the dog to death in order for it to be properly tenderized. I guess a marinade is out of the question.
Thank god it’s cooler. Finally had a mosquito-free night.
Never had the old dog stew, but I have heard it’s delicious. I’m all for trying it – I hate dogs.
well there is 2 big events here this weekend, kotesol (aka geek fest) i’ve never seen such a poorly organized group as those people, website is down the day before the conference no abstracts put up etc. whats worse is the same people run it year after year, how can they mess it up?
then there is the haebongchon music fest, lots of bad band playing with drunks blocking the main drag in hbc, or sort of like what college was like.
on the upside 11 more days until the democratic landslide
i’ve never seen such a poorly organized group as those people
Maybe if they weren’t all potheads and pedophiles.
on the upside 11 more days until the democratic landslide
It’s not going to happen. We are starting to see outlier polls (AP-Gfk) with McSame and Osama neck and neck. When people get into the booth and see that butterfly ballot just enough of them are going to have second thoughts (maybe subconscious second thoughts) about voting a black man into the White House.
I’m surprised wjk didn’t bring up Ashley Todd before it was realized she was a race-baiting nut:
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/10/college-republi.html
wjk focuses on issues, not side shows.
You can have some fun by googling
Obama, $250k, loophole.
I think Warren Buffett should know better, and he’s keeping quiet, because he’s a liberal who wants “regime change”.
Most people are stupid.
@ 9
빈 수레가 요란하다.
#5 CactusMcHarris
“Koreans think you have to beat the dog to death in order for it to be properly tenderized.”
Well we used to do that in the past. But we wised up. Probably doesn’t improve taste, cause nobody does it any more, except for some stupid backwards country folks. Plus I don’t think people would enjoy eating at a restaurant with a dog being tortured to death as background music.
That was an admirably restrained comment, Jewook, particularly from an ajosshi. Bravo.
@Above Criticism,
Here’s a way to block out the “noise”. Try it. Trust me, you’ll like it.
There’s a reason they’re called outliers.
There are three groups of people advancing the idea (by cherry-picking one or two outliers while ignoring the 10-15 mainline trends, as well as the overwhelming sum of state polls adding up to electoral disaster for McCain) that this election will be close.
One, those that have a vested financial interest in a close race. Which means Drudge, and most major media outlets. They want as many people as possible glued to their computers, tv screens, and newspapers for the next 10 days, and an impending blowout hurts the bottom line. Creating the illusion of a horserace brings in dollars.
Two, the GOP party hacks who need to give supporters some hope, and avoid depressing turnout and making the blowout even worse. These guys know the internals, know that the GOP is less popular than the neighborhood sex offender, know they’re facing defeat, but they’ll gladly deceive anyone that’ll listen in trying to prevent greater calamity.
Three, the deluded optimists who either can’t read polling data, or simply refuse to believe their side can be defeated. This is exemplified by Karl Rove in 2006, who was faced with similar tidal wave polling numbers, and when confronted and challenged on his seemingly naive optimism, declared “You’re entitled to your math, and I’m entitled to the math.”
Turns out the math made him look like the jackass he is. And it will again in 10 days.
There’s a reason they’re called outliers.
In 2000 all major polls except one predicted a Bush win for the popular vote. The outlier was right.
There are three groups of people advancing the idea
A fourth group would be Obama supporters who want to make sure people don’t stay home because they think an Obama win is a foregone conclusion.
I’m in none of those four groups. I just think McCain is going to pull this off somehow. I stake my reputation on it: if he loses I will leave the Marmot’s Hole.
Jewook, hate to be the messenger, but I have been living down here in Naju (Yeongsan-po)now for 6+ years. I hear the dogs being beaten to death all the time, well, in the summers…. I went onto a few of the dog farms, just HAD to see for myself. It was truly upsetting….
I have no problem with dogs used as meat. I do have a problem when it takes days for them to die….
Here are my tax proposals:
1. The corporate income tax should be eliminated.
2. Individuals making less than $15,000 a year should not be paying any federal income tax.
3. Individuals making between $500,000 and $1 million a year should be paying, at least, 50% in federal taxes above a base amount.
4. Individuals making more than $1 million a year should be paying 75% above a base amount.
5. Individuals making more than $2 million a year should be paying 85% above a base amount.
6. Individuals making more than $3 million a year should be paying 95% above a base amount.
7. Individuals making more than $4 million a year should be paying 100% above a base amount.
“Plus, if I remember correctly, Koreans (like Cambodians) think you have to beat the dog to death in order for it to be properly tenderized. I guess a marinade is out of the question.”
It’s not about the tenderness. People think that it increases the amount of adrenaline in the meat, as if there will be enough in a few morsels to have a noticeable affect on their bodies. I guess they must have pretty boring sex lives if their adrenal glands aren’t producing enough on their own.
Besides, stress diminishes the quality of the meat because it increases the production of lactic acid.
Wrong on both counts. Seven predicted Bush, two predicted Gore, one predicted a tie. The statistical outlier was Battleground, which was wrong, but even that was hardly much of an outlier in comparison to the rest of the polls, at just a 2.5% error. All 10 traditional polls were within a 4-point range of each other, which is hardly comparable to the 10+ point range we’re seeing now.
And given that the 2000 pre-election polls were the third most accurate of the 20th century with a 1.1% error on average, it seems pretty ridiculous to point to it as an example of polling inaccuracy.
Agreed. Although I think the enthusiasm for Obama is so astronomically high that it’s really not necessary. I get the feeling that even if polling showed Obama up 20 points, his supporters would still turn out in record numbers to try and make it 25.
Common feeling, but largely based on fear rather than rationality.
I’ve already staked more than my reputation on it, I’ve staked significant amounts of cash on it. But I’ll be happy to leave the Hole if McCain wins as well. Consider it a bet.
#17,
Great way to help the housing market…
in Vancouver and Toronto.
” Here are my tax proposals:
1. The corporate income tax should be eliminated.
2. Individuals making less than $15,000 a year should not be paying any federal income tax.
3. Individuals making between $500,000 and $1 million a year should be paying, at least, 50% in federal taxes above a base amount.
4. Individuals making more than $1 million a year should be paying 75% above a base amount.
5. Individuals making more than $2 million a year should be paying 85% above a base amount.
6. Individuals making more than $3 million a year should be paying 95% above a base amount.
7. Individuals making more than $4 million a year should be paying 100% above a base amount.”
Another complete idiot revealed.
I see you’ve got a strong grip on economic theory.
What a fuckin’ moron.
Sure, instead of hiring new people for my company, I’ll just mail this $2,000,000 check to Uncle Sam.
Okay if that doesn’t explain it well enough, try this one…….
Instead of hiring that idiot (you) who just came back from Korea where he taught,……I’ll just mail this big fuckin’ check to Uncle Sam.
Obviously a Moa-Bama voter.
Wrong on both counts. Seven predicted Bush, two predicted Gore, one predicted a tie.
Whatever. My point was that a lot of polls were off the mark. And no presidential poll in previous elections has ever had to factor in the possibility that respondents are lying about voting for a black man.
I’ve already staked more than my reputation on it, I’ve staked significant amounts of cash on it. But I’ll be happy to leave the Hole if McCain wins as well. Consider it a bet.
On second thought maybe we’re doing this all wrong. How about if Obama wins then wjk leaves the Hole and if McCain wins then KrZ leaves the Hole.
“The ministry said on Friday it may punish some officers for harming “the military’s mental power” by trying to bring books it considers too leftist onto its bases.”
Right, because we all know that critical thinking only makes us dumber. LOL
http://in.reuters.com/article/lifestyleMolt/idINTRE49N1I820081024
Obviously a Moa-Bama voter.
You must not read the comments much. Gbevers is a McCain supporter. He likes taking positions that are opposite of what others are taking. If the masses think X, then X must be wrong.
16. Gillian
Well they are doing it illegally, because the law prohibits beating a dog to death. It is extremely disturbing that they are still doing that in this age. Guess the ignorant cops there don’t care much about animal cruelty.
Anunsaram (#21),
You are right. I do not know much about Economics, but you were also unable to explain to me the problems with my tax proposals.
If my proposals would cause you to send Uncle Sam a $2 million check, then that would mean that your unincorporated company would be making more than $3 million a year in before-tax profit, leaving you with probably more than $1 million in after-tax income, depending on the assessed base tax. You cannot budget your lifestyle around one million dollars a year?
You would be hiring an optimal number of employees regardless of your tax burden. In other words, even if your taxes were reduced, you would not hire more people than you needed, which would mean that reducing your taxes would just allow you to stick more money into your pocket without hiring any new employees. If you wanted to expand your company, then you could ask the government to loan back to you a portion of your paid-in taxes at a favorable rate.
If you are making $3 million a year, then you are in the 35% tax bracket, which is the same bracket as someone making $350,000 a year. The corporate income tax rate is also 35%, which means that a corporation making $350 million a year and a small business making $350,000 a year are paying the same rate in taxes. If Barack Obama raises the taxes of small business owners making more than $250,000 a year, but keeps the corporate tax rate at 35%, then he will be giving corporations a price advantage over small business owners. Does that seem fair?
A corporate income tax means higher consumer prices because the corporation, which is not a person, will just add that tax expense to the cost of the product or service. That means the consumer will be paying the tax for the corporation, and it also means that a low-salary consumer will be paying a higher percentage of that tax than one of the high-salary executives that work for the corporation. Does that seem fair?
I want corporate executives to pay higher income taxes on their multi-million-dollar salaries and bonuses. No one, except God, deserves to be making millions of dollars a year in after-tax income. The reason corporate executive are being paid the ridiculously high salaries and bonuses we hear about in the news is because $500,000 a year and $5 million a year are both taxed at the same 35%. Those multi-million-dollar salaries also mean higher prices for the consumer because that salary expense is just added to the cost of the product or service. If we had prohibitively high income tax rates for those multi-million salaries and bonuses than there would be less incentive for executive to ask for them, which would mean the salaries and prices would come down to more reasonable levels.
I support John McCain, even though I do not like all of his tax proposals. However, I like Obama’s foreign policy proposals even less.
#25 Jewook, I’ve seen it going on down here in Gwangju too. Sad to say, but I think it’s the norm rather than the exception.
Obama’s tax plan is just wrong, fundamentally. Nobody can explain how it’s not wrong or give any ‘eloquent’ wording on what difference it will do to the economy.
Seriously, google Obama, $250k, loophole.
From the little experience I had with code writing, you could probably substitute my settings to ‘dda’ or ‘iceberg’ quite easily.
funny that you hate freedom of speech.
Human mind is full of curiosity. Your efforts are worthless.
Imagine that. French guy limiting freedom of speech. Nice going, Monsieur yoshi.
people get hung up on me double spacing, and makes no attacks on dda for his language slips here and there.
what is “me bows”?
granted the guy speaks like 10 languages, he seems to write like a caveman here and there.
Jewook,
Of course they are doing it illegally. If I recall correctly, the whole industry is still technically illegal.
Also, just a tip for your writing – the “we” style of speech (and it is a style of speech – nothing more) is generally not used in English.
they steal beat the crap out of the dog, what are you talking about?
it’s decisive in determining how it benefits your “male” functions.
what is “me bows”?
they steal beat the crap out of the dog
What is “steal beat”?
Attend first the beam in thine own, wjk
“/me” is how you emote in IRC. “/me claps” will generate text like “KrZ claps” whereas if claps is normally entered will appear “KrZ: claps.” Welcome to 1992.
#30 The Goat
Well the industry is ignored and off radar, but not officially illegal. You can’t be punished for selling BoShinTang or slaughtering dogs for that purpose. But you can be punished for beating a dog to death since it’s an act of cruelty and officially illegal. Just last month a guy was prosecuted for beating a dog to death, later eating it.
I still can’t believe people are stupid enough to think that that will help your performance. If your little buddy isn’t saluting any more, dog meat ain’t gonna make him a patriot.
It is going to be interesting to see the McSame-Bushite reaction to the drubbing they are going to get next week. I am sure it will kind of resemble the socialist party we have here in Canada.
1. Shock. How could this happen?
2. Denial! We were robbed!
3. Assurance: It wasn’t our fault.
intellectually speaking, except for seeking victory in Iraq and Afghanistan, McCain is more liberal than Bush.
I realize your dishonesty in trying to call McCain McBush and such, but they are different like McCain has said.
I always thought that anyone who even had one class in economics would never buy into the Democrat way of financing anything, but people throw out logic when they are more interested in other issues.
“it’s decisive in determining how it benefits your “male” functions.”
It’s an old wives’ tale. Any perceived benefit is due to the placebo affect.
PS. Eating ‘aphrodisiacs’ with other dudes? Not high on my list of things to do on a Saturday night.
#35,
“But, but, but…We rigged the voting machines, dammit!”
Wonder what the two candidates have to say about the merits of beating dogs to death. McCain probably has more of a time of it getting Little Peter to rise to the occasion.
“I still can’t believe people are stupid enough to think that that will help your performance. If your little buddy isn’t saluting any more, dog meat ain’t gonna make him a patriot.”
Yes, eating dog meat certainly won’t cure the damage caused by years of smoking.
Here is my hierarchy of the worst drivers in Korea:
1) Dump truck drivers. Truly blue ribbon. They own the road- just ask them. Up by Uijongbu I once saw a convoy of dump trucks run a red light on a highway at about 50 miles per hour. They blazed right past me and would have decimated any car that they hit. Luckily, no car came through.
2) Bus drivers: Of all the accidents I’ve seen on the highways ( there have been plenty) more have involved bus drivers than any other flavor of driver. They assume you’ll get out of their way, brake hard for them, etc. I’m always impressed at their willingness to weave through heavy traffic with sheer abandon.
3) Taxi drivers: absolutely number one on the meanness and badness list, they still rank a distant third when you look at the big picture, i.e. include highway driving in your analysis.
4) AAE drivers: Any Asshole in an Equus. They are most likely, of any driver, to be seen driving in the emergency lane, parking on the sidewalk, cutting you off savagely, refusing to let you merge when any human with a conscience would. Their evil ancestors came from the same village as all taxi drivers.
5) ME. I’m part of the problem, and here are the stages you go through:
a) shock and dismay at how people drive here.
b) fearful first moves to go native on the road
c) fluent badness, a willingness to do whatever it takes to hold your own, and full skill at the task.
d) outright glee generated by any chance to piss off any of the above bad drivers, or anyone else for that matter. True nonchalance regarding your daily driving sins. A desire to start trouble on the road.
#39,
That…and he’s such a maverick.
1. Shock. How could this happen?
2. Denial! We were robbed!
3. Assurance: It wasn’t our fault.
When Obama loses on November 4 the same thing will apply to his supporters. It’s not a McCain or Republican thing at all.
Well, user-81, but no presidential candidate has ever overcome such a lead. See my three points. Get ready to eat your words.
The solution for present situation:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10242008/watch2.html
Baduk,
Thanks. That was an interesting interview.
kimchipig:
Well, user-81, but no presidential candidate has ever overcome such a lead. See my three points. Get ready to eat your words.
Well, kimchipig, no major party presidential candidate has ever been black. The pollsters don’t know how to properly measure that kind of thing.
I’m prepared for the possibility that McCain will lose but if he does the margin of victory for Obama will be a lot closer than the polls predicted I think.
But if I’m right then I know that the Obama supporters will be complaining about voter fraud and other bad acts. In some cases they’ll probably be right but mostly it will be that too many people in too many swing states will get in there and decide that they’d rather go with the old white guy because they just don’t have the trust issues with him. I don’t say that’s the best way to pick the candidate because I think there are a lot of good reasons to vote for McCain (and Obama too) but a lot of people will vote this way for that reason.
What I don’t like is how the left has over the last eight years advanced a lunatic narrative — “stolen election”, “voter suppression”, “dirty tricks”, “corruption”, “Republican lies”, “Karl Rove”, “racism”, “deregulation”, and the like — that ensures serious trouble in the event that the Messiah doesn’t win. They can’t imagine that their ideas aren’t attractive to much of America; only the CIA’s black-bag squads, racism, or the false consciousness of the proletariat can be responsible for a bad outcome.
And all this while they’ve been demonstrably engaged in activities like Obama’s fraudulent fundraising and ACORN’s heroic attempts to register all manner of American voters who have heretofore been disenfranchised — cartoon characters, pets, typographical errors, the dead — by the Republican dastards. It really takes some cheek.
“funny that you hate freedom of speech”
“Imagine that. French guy limiting freedom of speech”
And you’ve just shown you have no concept of what freedom of speech actually means.
What I don’t like is how the left has over the last eight years advanced a lunatic narrative — “stolen election”, “voter suppression”, “dirty tricks”, “corruption”, “Republican lies”, “Karl Rove”, “racism”, “deregulation”, and the like — that ensures serious trouble in the event that the Messiah doesn’t win.
I don’t think it’s “lunatic narrative” to talk about disenfranchised blacks in Florida. Krugman does:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/22/opinion/22krugman.html
And how about the mysterious numbers in Ohio where a precinct with 800 voters recorded nearly an extra 4000 for Bush in 2004? That’s not really “lunatic narrative”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/07/politics/campaign/07elect.html
But don’t think the Republicans aren’t doing this either. Maybe in Korea you’re shielded from all the talk about ACORN where a bunch of idiots padded their wallets by registering Mickey Mouse and similar names. Republicans are running around like Chicken Littles with their heads cut off preemptively claiming stolen elections, as if someone is going to walk into a polling place and say “My name is Mickey Mouse and I’m here to vote”. If McCain loses then they already have the reason.
I wonder if any of you guys were around DC when Bush’s first inaugural motorcade took place. There were many angry people there — so much that the SS changed the route because they were afraid of the crowds.
Yes, voters were disenfranchised and ripped off in Florida and America has suffered though it will take hindsight for many to catch on.
P.S. Al Qaeda seems to have endorsed the idea of having a McCain administration. Those guys know a good thing for their cause when they see it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/opinion/26kristof.html
There is no point arguing with a fanatic but it is interesting to see McBushites claiming polls aren’t accurate, skewed, etc. The lefties here in Canada say the same thing before every election, when they are busy measuring the curtains for 24 Sussex. When they lose yet again, they blame everybody but themselves.
There is no point arguing with a fanatic but it is interesting to see McBushites claiming polls aren’t accurate, skewed, etc.
Who’s the fanatic you’re referring to?
I’m just saying that that polls of a few thousand people are no substitute for the real poll of the hundred million or so who will actually vote. In 2008 it is very different because “the Bradley effect” is in play:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/
If Obama wins the popular vote I think it will be by a much smaller margin than the polls predict. If polls on election day have Obama up by 10 points but he loses or comes out only one or two points ahead then I think the Bradley effect is at work. And that’s a terrible reason to lose. It’s not something for any McCain supporter to be proud of.
[b]P.S. Al Qaeda seems to have endorsed the idea of having a McCain administration. Those guys know a good thing for their cause when they see it.[b]
Bush was the best recruiter Al Queda ever had. This is why they support McSame.
Who cares what al Qaeda supposedly thinks? If the situation were reversed and the supposed endorsement came for Obama the Republicans would be all over it and the Democrats would rightfully be saying it shouldn’t matter. It’s stupid. Nobody knows where Osama is but we all know what he’s thinking, right?
If Obama wins I see a real possibility of al Qaeda operatives trying to assassinate the president. There would be nationwide riots like after Martin Luther King was killed and the distrust that would be caused would linger for many years. That’s what al Qaeda wants to do, destroy the fabric of our society like they did with 9/11.
Even though I think Obama would be a serious assassination risk and that an assassination would have devastating results I don’t think that’s a reason NOT to vote for him.
Why cares what Al Qaeda thinks? Well, if intelligence regarding an enemy is important, then it is very important.
Why cares what Al Qaeda thinks? Well, if intelligence regarding an enemy is important, then it is very important.
Obviously, kimchipig, I was NOT saying that intelligence regarding al Qaeda was not important.
Obviously, kimchiping I was saying that I think it’s stupid to let my vote be swayed by who an enemy supposedly wants to win.
And that includes Canadians.
So what do you all make of this Mccain campaign girl who lied about being savagely beaten by Obama supporters?
#58, Acropolis, you mean the girl I called “a race-baiting nut” in #8?
well, there are some white racists who support McCain.
well, there are also black racists who support Obama.
it’s a wash.
the media prefers to concentrate on the former.
wjk will say it loud and clear here.
whites and blacks in America don’t like each other very much.
for the blacks, this is chance to claim racial victory.
for me, a non-black, non-white, the only thing that matters privately, is foremost economics, taxes, then social policy, then religion, in that order.
I don’t care about class struggle and race based guilt. That’s something the blacks and whites should deal with.
this dude supports Obama.
what do you think about that?
it’s a wash.
white racists, black racists.
So far as I know, McCain hasn’t been in the Korean War, and wasn’t referring to Koreans when he used the term gooks, used by 99%+ of US troops in Vietnam to refer to people of East Asia at that time.
I wouldn’t count too much on the Bradley Effect… that’s a phantom bias created by the stupidity of the Bradley campaign that ignored the last-minute via-snail mail Republican blitz targeting the unmotivated republican bases in California. As far as I know, no one in the McCain camp is thinking about that… not too sure if they have money to do it either.
I think people are too focused on the national polls… not enough attention are being paid to the statewide polls, where McCain is either winning by a huge margin or gaining numbers… in states that don’t really matter. His strategy of pulling out in states where Obama basically won (Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado) in order to focus on states that he can still win would’ve worked out great… if he had not chosen Penn-”Democrats registered 200% more voters than Republicans”-sylvania. In terms of popular votes, he may be closing the gaps. In terms of electoral votes, my third favorite Republican is screwed.
Dismiss the polls in general, if you’d like… but they’re pretty reliable in my opinion.
There’s a very simple reason the Bradley Effect is overstated: Sample size.
The two races widely cited as evidence were 26 years ago (Bradley) and 19 years ago (Wilder). They were a mayoral race and a gubernatorial race compared to this national race, and the level of polling at that time was miniscule compared to what exists now.
Not only that, but several of the current polls are done by interactive voice response (Rasmussen, Survey USA), and over the internet (Zogby Interactive), and those polls also show significant Obama leads. So Bradley Effect proponents would have you believe that large numbers of people are afraid of a computer automated voice thinking they’re racist, or afraid of giving their real opinion over the internet, so as not to appear racist to their web browser.
Further, if you actually think that the current compiled polling data represents a few thousand people, you’re simply not knowledgeable enough about the extent and depth of current polling to be taken seriously. At minimum, there are tens of thousands of voters being polled daily, several hundred thousand per month, and going back the last 6 months of the race, several million.
Even if you choose to completely disregard the polling (which is ridiculous given its excellent track record), every other metric out there is still pointing to a significant advantage for Obama, and a landslide for Democrats in the House and Senate: Fundraising, party identification, voter registration gains, early voting turnout, ground game and state organization offices, volunteers, advertising…the list goes on and on.
If a significant number of these other metrics were showing Republican advantage…hell, if even a few were…it might be worth taking a second look at the polling. But not only are they all Democratic advantages, but they are huge advantages.
Regardless, you seem to have a severe case of Rove Fear Syndrome, which many Democrats also still suffer from. I’m bringing overwhelming data to the table, and you’re bringing “Yeah but I’m afraid somehow McCain will win.” Numerous polling organizations and betting markets are putting McCain’s chances of winning at between 4-13%. I’ll easily acknowledge that low chance and the possibility that it could happen, but you’re trying to inflate that low chance to a high possibility with absolutely nothing to back it up.
Regardless, since you’re utterly convinced of disaster despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, I won’t bother trying to convince you anymore.
iheartblueballs:
Further, if you actually think that the current compiled polling data represents a few thousand people, you’re simply not knowledgeable enough about the extent and depth of current polling to be taken seriously.
When I said “polls of a few thousand people” I was talking about each poll on an individual basis. None of the polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com has a sample size of more than 3000 which is “a few thousand people”.
The 15,011 sample voters they interviewed in these major polls over three or four days (two in case of Fox News’ 936 likely voters that puts Obama 9 points ahead) do not add up to “tens of thousands of voters being polled daily”.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
The sample sizes in California in 1982 were about 1000 (sorry but I can’t find the link) which is more than or close to most of the national polls predicting an Obama win right now. If I have time I’ll go over other points later but this is not Rove Fear Syndrome. You undercut your argument by taking my own concern (I think any Bradley Effect causing an Obama loss would be a very bad thing for our country) and trying to label me as a member of the Bush-Rove hive.
I was referring to the sum of the daily tracking polls, the weekly/bi-weekly polls (CBS/NYT, Newsweek, Wash Post/ABC, Fox News, CNN, etc), and the state polls when I gave those numbers.
Looking at each poll on an individual basis would not give me much confidence. Looking at the sum of all those polls, and seeing the similarity of results, as well as the similar trend lines between state and national polls, gives me (and pollsters, and professional political watchers) loads of it.
The fact that I said you’re suffering from Rove Fear Syndrome does not mean I’m labeling you a member of the Bush-Rove hive. In fact it means the opposite. I think their success in the past has frightened you into giving them disproportionate weight in the present.
I’ve tried (and failed, due to Robert’s link filter) numerous times to post several links to articles debunking not only the Bradley Effect as it relates to the 1980′s, but to any effect its had thus far in the Democratic primaries (in fact a comparison of primary results for Obama showed the reverse to be true…Obama’s pre-primary polling understated his support) or will have in the general election.
Read Frank Rich’s column today and follow the links in his column about the Bradley Effect, and then search for a post on fivethirtyeight.com called “The Persisent Myth of the Bradley Effect” from August 11th. Those 5-6 articles absolutely destroy the myth, and have the statistics to back it up.
While I don’t believe that Obama will win nationally by 10 points (4-7 is a good guess of a range), I do believe that the results of Nov 4th will be the final nail in the coffin of the myth of the Bradley Effect.
A few years ago, when I was living in North Seoul, I would hear dogs SCREAMING to death (I suspected literally) on a near daily basis around 10 or so A.M. in front of my apartment. It was an absolutely horrible sound to hear.
Meanwhile, anybody know how I could find my nearest library in Seoul (yeoksam-dong)?
wjk, Whites and blacks have a very unique history together in the U.S. and you are mistaken in saying that the two groups generally dislike each other as a whole. When comes down to the grind a majority of both groups lay aside the bullshit and come together as Americans to support each other. If they did not like each other so much as you claim then they would not be the leaders in terms of interracial couples and relationships. I think we should not look on the sideline and make observations based on viewing things at just one angle.
If they did not like each other so much as you claim then they would not be the leaders in terms of interracial couples and relationships.
I don’t think the 2% of whites that marry blacks let the other 98% of whites off the hook.
An Asian man in America is 30 times more likely to marry a white woman than a white man is to marry a black woman.
White men are barely any more likely to marry a black woman than Asian men are.
If they did not like each other so much as you claim then they would not be the leaders in terms of interracial couples and relationships.
I don’t think the 2% of whites that marry blacks let the other 98% of whites off the hook.
An Asian man in America is 30 times more likely to marry a white woman than a white man is to marry a black woman.
White men are barely any more likely to marry a black woman than Asian men are.
User-81, as a white man I am going to have to tell you this bluntly. A white woman, given your statistics, is 90 times more likely to marry a black man than an Asian male. Whether I like it or not is not the question, it is only the facts.
A white woman, given your statistics, is 90 times more likely to marry a black man than an Asian male.
I don’t see where you’re getting that from my statistics. In the U.S. 174,000 white women have Asian husbands and 286,000 white women have black husbands. That’s 64% more likely not 9000% more likely.
Whites and blacks are not leaders in terms of interracial marriage.
I’m still not seeing your source.
I have read it from Census Bureau data and I found something similar here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interracial_marriage#Census_Bureau_statistics
Granted, well it looks like the others are beating both Asian and African males out based on that apparently…
“White men are barely any more likely to marry a black woman than Asian men are.”
Maybe that’s why Halle Berry’s husband is French-Canadian.
Can anyone recommend a good English blog on Korea, one that focuses more on front-page issues rather than hair-fetish issues?
Inane banter, trolling, flamewars, and sock puppetry are really the main focus of pretty much every blog on the Internet. If you want headline news and semi-intelligent discussion read a newspaper.
In other news, the won is hovering around 1,460 to the dollar now. Looks like the BOK is going to need to continue dumping dollar reserves into the market if they want to stay ~1300.
In other news, the ATF has broken up a skinhead plot to kill 88 black students and assassinate Obama.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081027/ap_on_el_pr/skinhead_plot;_ylt=AhmuyQF6CqsbGsNialm14FGs0NUE
The ATF always makes me think of Liddy who is McCain’s answer to domestic terrorist William Ayers.
http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1313
Thank goodness the skinheads didn’t know that.
Don’t know who Liddy is, but this is hardly linkable to McCain.
I think this skinhead event highlights my thesis on the tensions between whites and blacks in America.
whites should hang their heads in shame, simply because this event occurred and should one of these ugly white trashes actually do what they want to do, whites should never ever raise their voices again if they are accused of being the most problematic racists on the face of the earth.
I hate Obama. He’s like Mao Zedong to me. I hate Mao, too. However, I would never ever want to see what these white racists tried to do come to fruition. That is so, so, so wrong.
Hudson family’s tragedy reminds us why whities choose to live far and away from places where these things happen “everyday” and not make the news.
Koreans being called blood suckers for providing a service in stores, that no one else would man or operate.
the adult black male. Even some who are rich and successful, they do some disturbing things. Allen Iverson stripped his wife naked and put her outside the hotel room. Remember that? OJ Simpson. Ron Artest.
the black US population overwhelmingly votes Democrat. What’s interesting is that, they are responsible for most of the gun homicide deaths in America, while voting for a party that wants to take guns off of all Americans.
actually, banning firearm ownership in black neighborhoods would actually benefit the black community tremendously in safety, education, economics, etc. I think the cities in Washington D.C, and Chicago tried to, but were ruled to be unconstitutional. It is actually unconstitutional. I think a solution might be banning sale of ammunition within 100 mile radius of these places. Is banning sale of ammunition also a violation of the constitution? I actually don’t know. With regards to real life fire arms ownage, there is a gaping hypocrisy here, but no one but wjk would dare to say so.
wjk is a bold observer. He’s got balls to say what he says.
wjk is sick of crazy white people who try to assassinate leaders they don’t like. I’m not certain, but quite sure that all US Presidents who were shot to death were shot by white adult men.
Japan claims that rape is low in their country, theoretically because people are too busy masturbating. Data shows adult product sales to be quite high, while real sex and real baby births are quite low.
that’s a really weird country.
will raising the wages in these low income black neighborhoods reduce gun violence?
black rappers should be ashamed of themselves. These guys are the biggest hypocrites of all. Gun toting, yet fanatically supporting Democrats. Full of anger and rage, and quite obviously promoting illicit drug use. Drugs that keep their own people unproductive. 1st amendement allows them to say whatever they like, but they should refrain from druggie, gunnie content.
If a black President means a dramatic drop in black neighborhood gun violence, drug usage, via redistribution of America’s wealth, maybe it is worth it.
i would say Lincoln and JFK would have done a whole lot more better if they were alive to serve out their terms.
yes, even JFK. The liberal.
I believe that the Secret Service should do whatever it can to prevent another Lincoln or JFK.
They did a great job in keeping Ronald Reagen alive and give 8 great years. Or was it Brady alone?
when is the wjk blocking script coming out for IE?
Don’t know who Liddy is, but this is hardly linkable to McCain.
G. Gordon Liddy was a Nixon “plumber” and now a conservative talk show host.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._Gordon_Liddy
He is friends with McCain and has held fundraisers for McCain even after his infamous “go for a head shot” comments about taking down ATF officers. He is McCain’s answer to domestic terrorist William Ayers.
Since we heard almost nothing about Liddy or Keating I find it hard to say the liberal media is “in the tank with Obama” and keep a straight face. Except for Letterman.
fuck, the Phillies are gonna win the World Series.
fuck !
Can anybody explain to me how this helps the US? To make it easier for you I’ll link the FOX story.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,444199,00.html
You might want to include in your explain how this is related to Sarkozy’s recent visit to Syria, the fact that the Syrian Foreign Minister was due in London at the time of the attacks and the impending US Presidential election.
It would also be interesting to hear comparisons with similar actions on the Pakistani border.
IHBB:
At minimum, there are tens of thousands of voters being polled daily, several hundred thousand per month, and going back the last 6 months of the race, several million.
According to this column there have been 728 national polls.
The average number of likely voters for the polls listed at RCP is 1409. Multiply that by 728 and you barely have 1 million (1.026 million), not “several million”. Maybe if you include state polls during the primaries you might get thousands more but I don’t know about a couple million more.
And since support is fluid the hundreds of thousands polled in previous months are not really relevant to what support is NOW. I am not a statistician but some of your statements on the polls don’t seem to add up. You seem to have a lot of faith in the polls showing a clear Obama victory before most people have even voted and the main thing I’m saying is that it’s possible it’s going to be a lot tighter than you think because the polls are more imprecise this time around than most people recognize because of mitigating circumstances. If your response has anything to do with you asserting that I’m just trying to grab at any positive news about McCain in my “pie-in-the-sky” analysis then your interpretation of me (which is irrelevant anyway to the polls) is dead wrong. I didn’t vote for Obama but my “support” of McCain is soft like tofu. I’m just a dissenting voice in a sea of people who seem to think that a runaway Obama victory is a foregone conclusion. But it seems that your enthusiasm for Obama (or your hatred of McCain) has driven you to emotional responses. Kinda funny coming from you.
IHBB:
At minimum, there are tens of thousands of voters being polled daily, several hundred thousand per month, and going back the last 6 months of the race, several million.
According to this column there have been 728 national polls.
The average number of likely voters for the polls listed at RCP is 1409. Multiply that by 728 and you barely have 1 million (1.026 million), not “several million”. Maybe if you include state polls during the primaries you might get thousands more but I don’t know about a couple million more.
And since support is fluid the hundreds of thousands polled in previous months are not really relevant to what support is NOW. I am not a statistician but some of your statements on the polls don’t seem to add up. You seem to have a lot of faith in the polls showing a clear Obama victory before most people have even voted and the main thing I’m saying is that it’s possible it’s going to be a lot tighter than you think because the polls are more imprecise this time around than most people recognize because of mitigating circumstances. If your response has anything to do with you asserting that I’m just trying to grab at any positive news about McCain in my “pie-in-the-sky” analysis then your interpretation of me (which is irrelevant anyway to the polls) is dead wrong. I didn’t vote for Obama but my “support” of McCain is soft like tofu. I’m just a dissenting voice in a sea of people who seem to think that a runaway Obama victory is a foregone conclusion. But it seems that your enthusiasm for Obama (or your hatred of McCain) has driven you to emotional responses. Kinda funny coming from you.
wj “Pharisee” k:
fuck, the Phillies are gonna win the World Series.
fuck !
God told me to tell you to stop using the F word.
wjk, Whites and blacks have a very unique history together in the U.S. and you are mistaken in saying that the two groups generally dislike each other as a whole. When comes down to the grind a majority of both groups lay aside the bullshit and come together as Americans to support each other. If they did not like each other so much as you claim then they would not be the leaders in terms of interracial couples and relationships. I think we should not look on the sideline and make observations based on viewing things at just one angle.
Can I have some of that weed you’re smoking?
Of course I included the state polls, and I made that very clear here in #65:
A quick scan through 538.com’s list of state polls shows around 720 (I eyeballed numbers while adding so feel free to count exactly) for the last two months alone, with a few stragglers from August or July from under-polled states. Multiply that by an average of 700 sample size (you see a lot of 500 and a lot of 1000+), and you get 500,000. Even factoring in the tendency of polls to increase as we get closer to the election, and you still easily reach 1 million + for state polls when you extrapolate over 6 months.
Then you can add in all the campaign internal polling, which are not publicly released nor included in 538′s list, but which cover both national and state polling for both candidates, with heavy emphasis on battleground states.
And you can also add in the partisan polls, non-scientific, and numerous other polls both state and national that do not meet the 538 minimum standards and are also therefore not included.
Reaching several million is easy. EASY.
That’s why 538 weights their polls according to when they were taken. And since Obama’s numbers have increased rapidly over the last month, OF COURSE now is more relevant. That’s why 538′s statistical model shows him with a 95.7% of winning. If his support curve had been the opposite…peaking in August and dropping now…it wouldn’t be so high.
That’s what polls are for, projecting before people vote.
Of course it’s possible, anything is possible. It’s possible Ralph Nader is elected President as well. But much like McCain, it’s just not probable, or even likely. I never argued about the possibility, I argued about the probability. And right now I’d say the probability is less than 5%. You seem to think it’s around 50%, with nothing to back up your position outside of these mysterious “mitigating circumstances” that just sound like fanciful bullshit to me.
Nice mis-direction to go with the “messiah” crap. The fact that I’m knocking down your cherry-picked polls and calling you out for manufactured data apparently means that I’m “enthusiastic” for Obama and “hate” McCain.
Neither of those are close to being true. I’m “enthusiastic” for honesty and accuracy and I “hate” cherry-picked bullshit masquerading as legitimate analysis. My political view of this race falls roughly in line with Christopher Hitchens, who is not a big fan of Obama, but who also thinks that McCain has been an erratic mess whose choice of an abortion for a VP eliminiated any chance he had at being a serious candidate.
In addition to that, the Republican party deserves the monumental ass-beating its about to receive like no other party I can ever remember. Apparently that’s the only way they’ll be shaken out of their stupor and embarrassingly pathetic passionate embrace of bible-beating dunces as candidates.
Had McCain run as an independent instead of branding himself with the stench of the Republican party, and chosen anyone other than Caribou Barbie as his running mate, he would have my vote. I had a lot of respect for the man in 2000 when he stood up to Falwell and the rest of the religious bigots, and yet here 8 years later he’s kissing their asses and plucking their Jesus-approved, retarded beauty queen out of obscurity while pretending she knows her ass from her elbow.
And that, to me, was the last straw. Hell, all Obama had to do to get my vote was look reasonably intelligent and competent, and NOT be a Republican.
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