Chinese scholars seem to believe Western predictions of regime collapse in North Korea after Kim Jong-il dies reflect “wishful thinking”:
The view that North Korea is likely to collapse after the all-powerful Kim Jong-il dies is a reflection of wishful thinking by some countries, rather than a reflection of North Korean reality, Chinese scholars argue.
Although Kim is a very important figure in North Korea — probably the most important ― nonetheless the scholars point out that an internal bloody power struggle is unlikely in the post-Kim era by military generals because the “ruling class” in North Korea is well aware that if they destroy each other, it will eventually destroy the world’s most isolated nation.
This consciousness of “shared destiny,” they argue, will unite the seasoned North Korean cadre to ensure the stability of North Korea in the post-Kim era.
The piece cites a number of Chinese scholars, and definitely warrants reading.
That said, the wishful thinking seems to be affecting all sides. Sure, it’s probably wishful thinking to believe that North Korea will collapse after Kim joins his dad in the Big Juche in the Sky (and even more wishful to believe that said collapse would necessarily be a good thing even if they got it), but is it any more so than, say, the South Korean left’s belief that it can somehow forestall catastrophic regime failure in the North by pumping aid to Pyongyang in an effort to encourage “economic reform and openness”? And sure, I can understand how the Chinese would very much like to see continued stability in North Korea, but wishing it doesn’t necessarily make it so. Chinese scholars surely have to admit at least the possibility that following a half-century of epic mismanagement, things could get very, very hairy if the Dear Leader were to suddenly die.
I don’t think anyone has the slightest clue how the cookie will crumble in the post-KJI era, so regardless of one’s preferred outcome, you’d better have contingency plans in place for the worst. That’s just common sense, and it’s what’s most frustrating with pieces such as this one in yesterday’s Hankyoreh — OK, fine, you hate OPLAN 5029 (as do I, albeit for very different reasons), but what are you going to put in its place? Or is even planning for a worst-case scenario out of the question?
8 Comments
Oh! Oh! “Is!” It’s “Is!” Not “in!” I corrected your blogging grammar first! I did it! I win! I win!
They do have a point since a lot of the same was said back when Daddy Kim was about to croak and after.
I believe the chinese scholars. I used to think that a lot of North Korean refugees would jump ship at the chance through the Olympics. Didn’t happen. It seems like things are going better than expected. That Guo guy article you put up—it’s a very good example of why North Korea isn’t collapsing anytime soon. People over there are just living their lives, and from their perspective, it’s “normal”. No particular reason to dissent or even imagine life elsewhere.
Marm… I said this like 7 years ago and I’ll say it again. When the artillery shells start flying on the Korean peninsula, YOU and your wife will take the first CIA funded plane back to Long Island. I wonder if you have the same political views if your mom and brother lived within artillery shell without an American passport.
“When the artillery shells start flying on the Korean peninsula…” then we’re all f#cked, and there will be no CIA planes to save us. U.S. citizens won’t get special evacuation flights from the U.S. gov’t.
NK is unlikely to collapse because the Chinese gov’t isn’t going to let it. They have a multitude of reasons for keeping it going, with one of KJI’s idiot kids as a figurehead or a military leadership. NK will probably become part of China, although both sides will claim it’s autonomous.
Michael, i was being tongue in cheek and accusing Robert for working for the CIA.
Also, when there is a war on the Korean peninsula, a South Korean passport won’t be all that good. A US passport on the otherhand will be valuable.
You think once a war breaks out other countries will be issuing tourist visas in mass for South Korean citizens?
Virtual, I’m the CIA employee around here, and I just get annoyed that Mr. Marmot gets all tthe credit
Good question, and not one I haven’t considered at length.
Short answer is, yes, if I had a Korean passport, my views on this would probably be much different. At least as far as the US part of the equation is concerned. Seeing how the US is basically subsidizing Korea’s defense by providing essentially free security guarantees, I’d certainly wouldn’t be calling for Washington to terminate them.
Or, to put this differently, if I were Korean, I’d expect my government to look out for Korean interests. Just as an American, I expect my government to look out for US interests.
Now, as for the rest of the equation, I doubt my stance would change. Regardless of whether you want North Korea to collapse or not, you have to prepare for the worst, even as you work towards the best.
Speaking of the Chinese:
6,200 Chinese babies ill, 3 die from tainted milk
http://ap.google.com/article/A.....QD938V9780
It worked so well in pet food, why not add it to baby formula?
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[...] Koehler still tries to twist the argument back around. That said, the wishful thinking seems to be affecting all sides. Sure, it’s probably wishful [...]