More ‘KJI Has Fallen, And He Can’t Get Up’ Stuff

The New York Times chimes in, quoting Andrei Lankov and Peter Hayes:

“The majority view now is that it will be a collective leadership with some member of the Kim family as a figurehead,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul. “But situations can easily go in an unpredictable direction. Many top generals and some civilian leaders will probably be overcome by their own power lust, so some serious infighting with unpredictable results is likely, too.”

Peter Hayes, director at the Nautilus Institute, a research institution based in San Francisco, guessed that “a leader from the current political elite with strong ties to the military” would take over.

Such a leader would stress continuity while trying to put a slow modernizing process in place. Mr. Hayes and other analysts believe there would be no change in North Korea’s nuclear strategy. Any leader or leaders would continue to cultivate the powerful national myths that permeate North Korean life and propaganda, based on xenophobic nationalism and the personality cult built around Mr. Kim’s father, the national founder revered among North Koreans, Mr. Hayes said.

Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea expert at the Sejong Institute, thinks an oligarchy may eventually be in the works, too.

A prominent Grand National Party lawmaker, meanwhile, worries that Kim’s illness may lead to increased Chinese influence in Pyongyang. Money shot:

During a radio interview, Gong said the North Korean leader’s three grown sons — Kim Jong-nam, 37, Kim Jong-chul, 27, and Kim Jong-woon, 25 — may not yet be ready to take over the leadership, according to local reports.

“They are not prepared to lead a smooth transition of power in the post-Kim Jong-il regime,” Gong said. “What’s likely to happen in Pyongyang if the North Korean leader is incapacitated is that a committee comprised of senior military officials may wrest power from the Kim family.

“This type of military rule in Pyongyang, if it were to happen, would likely lead to a pro-China stance and there may be little that the United States could do to stop it. Washington would have little choice but to silently agree to the new arrangement and the change in the local geopolitical landscape.”

In return for allowing a greater Chinese influence in the northern half of the Korean Peninsula, Gong speculated, the United States may ask Beijing to help block nuclear proliferation in the region and put a stop to Pyongyang spreading nuclear materials and know-how to other rogue nations.

You know what strikes me here? Gong talks about Washington’s options, but he doesn’t talk about Seoul’s. It’s almost as if he treats South Korea as a non-player. I might say to Gong, let the Americans talk about what they can or can’t do. Instead, tell me what YOU’RE going to do.

Oh, and a South Korean defense source said Seoul and Washington are working on a specific course of military action to respond to instability in North Korea.

To which I say, great, another Third World shithole for the US taxpayer to own.