Kim Jong-il’s apparent illness has gotten everyone talking about the future of North Korea, and the Hanguk Ilbo is no different, presenting three possible scenarios:
- If Kim’s health improves and he reassumes control of North Korea, this latest brush with mortality may push him to name a successor early. Experts had believed he’d take care of the issue in 2012, when he turned 70, but he may feel he doesn’t have that kind of time. It’s likely that if Kim retakes power, he will do so as part of an oligarchy that includes other high-ranking political and military officials like Kim Yong-nam, Kim Ki-nam, Jang Song-taek and Kim Yong-chun. He may also co-rule with his designated successor. A North Korea expert at Dongguk University said if Kim has time, he may create a system in which North Korea’s third and fourth-generation technocrats lend support to the successor.
- If Kim’s health deteriorates, look for the military to step up to stop things from getting interesting. Since its constitutional reform of 1998, North Korea’s National Defense Commission has controlled not only the military, but also the government and ruling party under the basis of Songun Politics. Kim has relied on the military to stay in power, and because of this, it’s likely it could operate a group-leadership system. An expert at Kyungnam University said if North Korea’s military leadership declares an emergency leadership system centered on the National Defense Commission, North Korea’s position in intra-Korean relations and the nuclear issue would actively reflect the military’s position, and this could stall relations. Some, however, think a group leadership system based on the Korean Workers Party politburo (which has been sidelined for a decade) or secretariat could come into being.
- If Kim shuffles off this mortal coil, things could get ugly. You could see fighting between supporters of Kim’s two sons and conflict between pro-Russian and pro-Chinese factions within the North Korean military. Moreover, South Korea and the United States have COPLAN (formerly OPLAN) 5029 in place for something like this. Still, experts believe it unlikely that the North Korean military would descend into civil war. The Danguk University expert said ambitious individuals might appear to engage in struggles in the center of power, but North Korea, too, has its own crisis management system, and if the military leadership declares something along the lines of martial law, the radical changes they fear are unlikely to happen.
Marmot’s Note: Funny nobody mentioned the other possibility should Kim’s condition take a turn for the worse — Chinese intervention.
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In a sense, it was no accident that Chinese intervention was not mentioned, given the national mentality on both sides of the DMZ.
As much as Koreans are willing to blame neighbors and outsiders retroactively for many of the negatives within Korea, they steadfastly ignore that they could well once again be the stomping ground of one or even more powerful neighbors.
To do so would be to admit a greater vulnerability that would be offensive to national pride.
The problem with all of this is that similar to excessive blaming of the national ills on to outsiders, ignoring some of the more sobering geopolitical realities places Korea in a position not too different than 100 years ago. That is, being delusional and thereby remarkably vulnerable to the avarice of some of Korea’s more cynical neighbors.
A century ago, Korea lost its independence in part by underestimating how China’s interests would be contested by Japan. The big, long-term danger is that Korea could once again underestimate the China factor.
This time, though, in spite of Chinese protestations to the contrary, there may well be a latent Mandarin Manifest Destiny that that extends at least down to the Han River in Seoul. A first, rather uncontroversial first step would be to send in Chinese peace keepers who would leave Beijing-leaning Pyongyang government in its wake, etc.
While the above is hardly a certainty, as Robert Koehler implies, the denial factor could turn out to be both Koreas’ strategic liability.
It’s interesting just what South Korea, the US, Japan and the rest of the world could/would do if North Korea collapsed and China decided to move in with peacekeepers and restore ‘order’. At first, I’m sure most would be more than happy for the Chinese to take care of the dirty work but I’m sure those same people would start to get antsy if China let it known it has no intentions of leaving anytime soon.
I’m sure that US and South Korean forces have discussed this scenario behind closed doors, I wonder what consensus they came to.
Bush to LMB:
“God tells me he can get me out of this shite, but he’s pretty sure your fooked.”
FOR ElCanguro, re #2
A Chinese professor (smart, outspoken, influential) talking to an American colleague at a conference in Beijing few months ago, with yours truly devouring a rather spicy fish and listening to the exchanges:
“Let’s imagine (purely hypothetically, of course) that we’ll take responsibility for North Korea if it experiences a complete collapse. We’ll spend money, we’ll take risks, we’ll handle difficulties of all kinds. Finally we’ll put the place in order, we’ll revive their economy. And then, you imply, we are supposed to turn out the entire place to the South Koreans, just like his? Do not you think it will be a bit unfair?”
Oops,
Of course it should be: “And then, you imply, we are supposed to turn out the entire place to the South Koreans, just like THIS?” (having said this, Professor X. even moved a knife towards his American intercolutor)
Oops,
Of course it should be: “And then, you imply, we are supposed to turn out the entire place to the South Koreans, just like THIS?” (having said this, Professor X. even moved a knife towards his American intercolutor)
The UN is only as good as the Security Council – the three most powerful members of which have displayed little interest in using the UN as a tool to promote peace and the improvement of the lives of people living in failed and failing countries. Quite the contrary, in fact.
North Korea is China’s, if China wants it. The West had best be making its plans around this assumption.
Hi Lankov, did your Chinese colleague give any details as to what he thought might make the deal a bit ‘fairer’?
I wouldn’t have thought it is likely that they could pull a Tibet on North Korea (or that they would want to). Firstly they would have a hard time justifying it dometically and internationally. They would have to derecognise the DPRK as a independent state (yes, I know this has been done before but times have changed since then.) They probably wouldn’t be able to force the DPRK out of the UN unless they were very quick or very lucky.
Secondly they’d need to find some Koreans willing to take over and sign the country away. That might not be as easy as it was in 1910. History has been harsh on those guys both North and South of the DMZ.
I think a military occupation followed by a pro-Beijing but technically independent government (exchange ambassadors, keep UN seat, keep sporting teams etc) wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing seen from South Korean eyes. The North could make some half-hearted comments about reunification but disagree on the details, returning us to status quo ante, except for the fact that they would have to significantly lift travel restrictions, media restrictions and conduct serious economic reform. It might also dampen rampant land speculation and the like. Something like the Syrian job in Lebanon might not be too bad for a generation or so.
That Syrian example is going to sound bad. Perhaps I’ll take that back. What I was trying to say is a recognised independent government but with foreign troops on the ground. Perhaps McCain’s plan for Iraq sounds better as an example, with all the competitive tendering for resource extraction that goes along with it.
10. Of course, no Tibet. A technically independent gpovernment, as you said, a bit like Hungary or Bulgaria in, say, 1965.
I think its very doubtful that we’d see China taking over North Korea because:
1. What’s in it for them? Why would they want to be responsible for such a shit hole?
2. China likes blathering a lot about how its foreign policy is based around non-interference in soveriegn states. This is a good cover for dealing with nasty regimes (Sudan, Burma, etc.) and for telling foreigners to STFU about Tibet. They’d have to can this whole approach if they send the tanks rolling into Pyeongyang. Of course the Chinese would ditch their whole non-interference stance if there was something in it for them, but I just don’t see a North Korea being worth it.
What China basically wants is:
A. Maintenance of the status quo, which serves China nicely (“hey US, don’t piss us off or we won’t help you reign the Norks in”)
B. Keeping US soldiers the hell away from their borders.
Even if A becomes untenable I don’t see any real Chinese power grab unless they felt it was the only way of keeping US soldiers away from their borders.
China does not want to take over a shithole, but it definitely does not want the US military stationed on its border either. At the very least, it may carve out a buffer state.
Seems inevitable that China will control NK for a whole host of reasons, primarily to keep the buffer zone with the U.S.
China has extensive investments in coal and mineral mines there and built up the port in Nanjin for its own use. They’re not going to let that slip away from them.
With KJI out of the way China can force the NK military elite to accept a leader who answers more directly to Beijing, even if it’s one of KJI’s idiot sons. The NK military is heavily reliant on China for its survival, so they’re in no position to refuse.
Like Mr. Coyner said, China is the elephant in the room the South does not want to confront. And now after alienating the U.S. on the base relocations, the FTA, etc., and portraying Japan as enemy No. 1, SK might find itself having to deal with China’s ambitions by itself.
If NK becomes a vassal state of China, most of the Northeast Asian problems will be solved.
1. NK dismantles its nuclear programs.
2. NK releases all the foreign abductees.
3. The NKoreans are freed from starvation.
4. SK does not have to pay the unification costs.
5. The US can withdraw from SK by signing a peace treaty with NK.
6. Lollipops and gumdrops for all the children of the world.
7. Peace on earth, good will to man.
Oops! I forgot to include “pixie dust and dancing fairies” on the list.
Has anyone started guessing what the population of NK is down to now?
Headline reads:
“Is Kim Jong ILL?”
Ok, that’s my wit for the day.
First North Korea (or Taiwan), then Burma, then…. ?
Russia created the Frankenstein monster that is the DPRK, and in its current 3rd-rate gangster mode under Putin, Russia appears to share a lot of values with the Kim family regime. Maybe a better fit than increasingly conservative, business-like China.
how Japanese of you, Natto.
I could easily substitute the word, Japan, for China, and scale back 100 years, and we are reminded of what the Japanese were attempting back then.
Russia and China made North Korea, but the worship of the Kim family is a carbon copy lift from the way the Japanese commanded its subjects to worship the Emperor.
only wjk can point this out.
what a great guy.
wjk @ 22,
The Korean pioneered the self-aggrandizing third person writing in blogs, but you truly have taken to another level. The Korean bows to you.
WJK,
You may not know how much you’ve been honoured in declaration #22. TheKorean has been the master craftsman, but you’ve turned it up a notch.
I am pleased to read your on-the-spot guidance and counseling.
I have to disagree with your statement vis a vis the Emperor and The Kims. The Kimspeak that North Koreans are brought up and inculcated with all of their lives is a major perversion of what the Japanese were/are taught (rightly or wrongly).
Wow ~~ a Korean copied something from Japan!
What a completely unexpected and revealing analysis!
No one could have possibly imagined that, no one except the brilliant wjk, that is.
What a moron.
“Ask a Korean” <<< “Ask a Mexican”
what the hell dogbert, what have I ever done to you? You don’t have to remind me the obvious. The Mexican has a nationally syndicated column and two books under his belt. I’m a flippin’ nobody.
OK, muchacho:
“Ask a Korean” >>> “Ask a Mexican”
You’re actually politer and write better.
Hi Sonagi #13, would you like to elaborate what you think might be acceptable to the Chinese in terms of a buffer state? Surely the Americans aren’t stupid enough to go rushing off to the Yalu again (again!).
Back in 1950 the British were proposing 30 miles from the Yalu and your man Acheson suggested 10 miles.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/260390?seq=1
Perhaps the Chinese need a bit more nowadays. All of the provinces that border China? Up the Chongchon River and then somehow along the 40th parallel?
How do you think they would try to run such a buffer state? Set up a new government and declare independence? Or annexation? If they run it as a military occupation they would probably have to admit it was temporary and commit to eventually giving it up again.
#28,
I say this as an American – never underestimate the stupidity of American foreign policy – just witness the last six years.
I’ve no doubt that if China wanted to expand her protectorate, making North Korea (or parts of it) like its ‘province’ of Tibet, it would do so.
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