The Lunacy Continues…

In a nice Chosun Ilbo editorial, the fact that Hyundai Motor’s labor union is considering a sympathy strike against U.S. beef imports is properly derided. Hyundai workers may have the most to gain from an FTA with the U.S. since tariffs on Korean cars will be considerably reduced, a fact that is making the UAW, and their cohorts (named Obama and named Clinton) nervous. What’s even worse is the rationale that the union leaders are using, such as “…productivity would be hurt …” if people got Mad Cow, etc.

Ryu Geun-il wrote a column in the Chosun Ilbo last week about how the so-called “wandering tribe” of beef protesters, like all revolutions that get out of hand, would eventually start eating its own children. It’s also proof that militant labor unions only know how to fill their own bellies regardless of how irresponsibly they vent their spleens.

UPDATE: It appears that the Hyundai Motor union on Monday voted down a general strike by the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions against U.S. beef imports. The vote was 21,618, or 48.5 percent, of 44,566 registered members who voted in favor of the strike. Considering that a strike by the union requires a simple majority, this was a narrow victory. Here’s hoping that this points to a slide to sanity and a high watermark for these so-called “candlelight” vigils.

(HT to cm)

82 Comments

  1. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 2:50 am | Permalink

    Those Chosun Ilbo editorials are preaching to the converted. Those who think that fears of Mad Cow are irrational will agree. Demonstrators and their sympathizers will dismiss anything published in Chojoongdong. Some folks can’t help cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

  2. permalink your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 3:08 am | Permalink

    I have a strong feeling that the first, and only, casualties of American ‘beef’ will be caused by violence at some anti-U.S. beef demonstration. It’ll be interesting to see if newspapers pick up on the irony when it happens.

  3. Posted June 17, 2008 at 3:32 am | Permalink

    Sonagi,

    I realize that Chosun Ilbo articles are pretty much preaching to the converted. However, the “converted” isn’t my only intended audience as the Marmot Hole may actually have more readers than the linked Ilbo articles. Many times ‘hole posts and comments are transalated into Korean and some of the “unpreached” if you will, may be directed to the articles that may echo the thoughts of foreigners in order to expose these people to alternative viewpoints.

    It’s a stretch, but it’s worth a shot.

  4. Jeongsoo your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 3:57 am | Permalink

    cool. I’m glad to see this. Maybe this will be the impetus to stop the FTA.

  5. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:15 am | Permalink

    Many times ‘hole posts and comments are transalated into Korean and some of the “unpreached” if you will, may be directed to the articles that may echo the thoughts of foreigners in order to expose these people to alternative viewpoints.

    I’ve actually debated a few polite, reasonable Korean netizens on the issue, and they’re not budging. They are firm in their stance that the beef deal must be renegotiated, and like Jeongsoo, they aren’t enthusiastic supporters of the FTA. Koreans reflexively dismiss opposing foreign viewpoints with the belief that foreigners just don’t understand Korea.

  6. Lana your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:35 am | Permalink

    The FTA is dead anyway and now that the U.S. sees how the Koreans are clowining so stupidly over it, hopefully they’ll pull out the troops and raise tariffs not only on cars, but on Samsung, LG and Hanwoo products.

    Or, ration how many of the products can enter the U.S. the same why U.S. products are rationed in Korea.

  7. Lana your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:38 am | Permalink

    ooops…I meant ‘clowning’ and ‘way’.

    Heck, do we really need to trade with Korea? We have Japan and China. I don’t see why we need to trade with Korea.

  8. Jeongsoo your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:51 am | Permalink

    “Heck, do we really need to trade with Korea? We have Japan and China. I don’t see why we need to trade with Korea.”

    Why stop there? The US doesn’t need to trade with japan and china either. The US is a large enough country with a huge set of diverse industries that he can pretty much support itself without much trade.

  9. Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:52 am | Permalink

    Arguements, from both sides, asking for an abject death of the FTA are rooted in ignorance.

    Lana, Japan and China protect their trade w/the U.S. also. When was the last time you saw a Chrysler in Tokyo?

  10. Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:58 am | Permalink

    Jeongsoo, without foreign trade, where will the U.S. get its oil?

    Also, how will the U.S. be able to deficit spend without other countries taking the dollars it’s earned to buy U.S. Treasury bonds?

    On Korea’s end, bilateral trade w/the U.S. is almost $90 billion. That’s 10% of Korea’s GDP. How does Korea survive without 10% of its GDP? Can you imagine two years of no or negative growth? Remember the last time Korea had negative growth? Grown men were crying in public parks in full business dress wondering how they can go back to their families and explain how they had lost their jobs.

  11. Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:08 am | Permalink

    I think we have to conclude that the 2008 Cows Gone Wild!! Hysteria — is just about to become equal to the 2000 Great Water Dump Saga….

    …today, reading Marmot’s….I find out we even already have a waekuk stabbed…

    One of the differences between 2000 and 2008, however, is that the 2000 issue had a couple of precursors in the months leading up to it.

    We’ll also have to wait to see if these protests are able to gain significant traction for other issues which help prolong the festivities.

    The Maehyang-ri/Koon-ni Bombing Range Saga would never have taken off in the society if it had not been for the water dump case — and of course the NK-SK Summit.

  12. Won Joon Choe your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:24 am | Permalink

    Sonagi #4,

    Can you refer us to the venue where this debate took place? (I won’t use the term “forum” for once because you don’t like that word! :))

  13. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:27 am | Permalink

    Why stop there? The US doesn’t need to trade with japan and china either. The US is a large enough country with a huge set of diverse industries that he can pretty much support itself without much trade.

    Apart from souvenirs, there is not much in my home that was made in Korea although some electronic goods may contain parts sourced from Korea. US store shelves would be half-empty and merchants left scrambling to replace products no longer available from China or Japan. Trade with China and Japan has raised our standard of living by providing affordable and high quality goods. What is it that we buy from Korea that we could not get elsewhere even though we might pay a little more for it?

  14. Won Joon Choe your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    I tend to agree with Sonagi, though I am not exactly an economist by training. The U.S. could probably do without products from South Korea and institute substitute them with products from competing nations. In contrast, where would South Korea find a market for its high-value added goods comparable to the U.S. in size? Also, while South Korea does buy a lot of U.S. treasuries, the scale of its purchase is dwarfed by China and Japan.

  15. Won Joon Choe your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:36 am | Permalink

    “Instead,” not “institute.”

  16. Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:46 am | Permalink

    “Also, while South Korea does buy a lot of U.S. treasuries, the scale of its purchase is dwarfed by China and Japan.”

    True, but it’s still the 5th largest holder of U.S. dollars, a huge part of that in treasuries.

    Any abrupt decision by South Korea to buy less treasures from the Fed will have a more than likely impact on monetary policy, in my opinion. Three years ago, Korea’s comments on the dollar sent shivers throughout the U.S. financial services industry.

    We are linked in more ways than we’d like to admit and any sudden changes brought about by thinking with emotion rather then logic will bring about short and intermediate consequences. Although I would admit that Korea has more to lose and for a longer period of time.

  17. Jeongsoo your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:54 am | Permalink

    “Jeongsoo, without foreign trade, where will the U.S. get its oil?”

    I was being facetious with my comment towards lana. I’m not against trade, but I think koreans(and americans) need to think long and hard before getting into any form of free trade agreement. I think local industries should be protected (especially agricultural). And F**k the few extra gdp percentage point that may or may not be attained with the FTA. Having a high GDP per capita is not the end all be all to a good life.
    Koreans have a lot more deeper problems that need to be addressed(maturity, spirituality, emotionality, and just being a normal group of people). FTA isn’t going to help and probably exacerbate it.

  18. Skookum your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:57 am | Permalink

    #8:
    When was the last time you’ve been to Japan? In the 1970s? Care to elaborate what tariff/non-tariff barriers still exist in Japan for American cars, after tons of WTO suits between the countries in the 80s and early 90s?

  19. cm your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 5:57 am | Permalink

    sigh…

    too many captains who wants to wear the hat, but not enough people who will obey orders.

    You know, as much as it pains me to say this, I think the only thing that will save this country is a big shock that comes from externally.

    It’s a mess folks. All you English teachers, be prepared to leave as another financial crisis looms caused by Korean infighting and stubborness.

    I bet the number of students dropping out of English classes and hagwons going under are increasing exponentially as we speak now.

  20. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 6:17 am | Permalink

    I really sympathize with the idea of a US public relations campaign to help improve America’s image and try to clear up some mistaken notions. What do you guys think?

  21. James your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 6:29 am | Permalink

    “When was the last time you saw a Chrysler in Tokyo?”

    Yesterday.

  22. mizar5 your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    Sonagi: “I’ve actually debated a few polite, reasonable Korean netizens on the issue, and they’re not budging. They are firm in their stance that the beef deal must be renegotiated, and like Jeongsoo, they aren’t enthusiastic supporters of the FTA. Koreans reflexively dismiss opposing foreign viewpoints with the belief that foreigners just don’t understand Korea.”

    Yes, the old “You don’t understand Korea” argument. Yet these same Koreans will proclaim their opinions about the US, often the most outlandish misconceptions. Quite a double standard.

    Yet, what Koreans fervently desire is that foreigners not be allowed to understand them. I have heard many say that it’s cute to hear foreigners struggling to speak Korean but disgusting (chingurupda) when foreigners speak flawless Korean and know too much about Korea. Is it any wonder that the foreigners who are most beloved are the clowns - foreigners who affect a Kyeong San Do dialect, for instance?

    It is no doubt disappointing to many Koreans that long-term foreign residents in Korea tend to develop a much more in-depth understanding of Korea than even the average Korean might have. This happens for several reasons. First, Westerners tend to be analytical and not easily misled by outward shows. Second, long-term residents have no choice but to adapt to Korean culture, which is always “in your face.” By contrast, Koreans in the US can pretty much ignore other cultures. The argument that foreigners cannot understand Korea is also belied by the many foreign scholars of Korean culture and history who know Korea better than he average Korean

    It is no doubt disappointing to many Koreans that they are “misunderstood” (ie. “understood more deeply than desired.”) It is better to be “special” and “misunderstood,” better to be perceived as better than you actually are by gullible foreigners who are ushered out of Korea before they can see the real truth for themselves.

    It’s all about controling the message and manipulating others. This is not a very firm basis or credible model for a modern advanced nation.

    To tackle the issues from the inside entails a willingness to be brutally honest with oneself. The complacency of settling for outside appearances is what is killing the economy and fueling the protest culture.

    The protest culture is essentially dishonest and corrupt. And while it is a uniquely Korean form of societal corruption, would anyone be surprised to read that it is “Western influence” that is corrupting Korean society? What Western influence? True Western influence would liberate Korea from the tyranny of surface appearances.

  23. Posted June 17, 2008 at 6:39 am | Permalink

    A US public relations campaign would produce a backlash similar to whenever the US ambassador or USFK commander or US congressman speaks against the misinformation.

    Also, getting the campaign started might take some work.

    I’ve covered issues in the past related to USFK where USFK would go to some lengths to do things like —– bring onto base bus loads of reporters and even members of the anti-US civic groups and civil government people —- to take them around and show them the truth about things like pollution or something else —- only to have the Korean media refuse to print any of that information or twist it around.

    USFK held the first candlelight vigil for the two girls killed in 2002. It also held townhall meetings — soon after the accident and before Korean society had whipped itself into a frenzy — and it laid out its version of the facts for all in attendance - and refuted directly claims the soldiers had gotten in a fight with Korean soldiers at the scene and that the vehicle was too big for the traffic lane and so on.

    The Korean media did not report a word of these meetings.

    And when they whipped themselves in a frenzy several weeks later, the media itself, the ones invited to the townhall meetings, kept saying USFK had ignored the issue until Korean society went nuts.

    That is just one example. Pretty much in ever anti-US spike in activity I’ve researched, you can find similar things.

    The US would have to set up its own shop somehow to get the information out.

    And the effort to do so would be attacked.

    It certainly isn’t as simple as giving information to the Korean media to put out. That has been tried and tried and failed. (Including giving the media both English and Korean versions of the USFK/US Embassy info sheets)…

  24. pawikirogi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    james in number 20: your avatar is shit because it cannot withstand being seen on the smaller scale marmot has now imposed probably because of me. that’s why i’ve made my artful gravs to withstand this. your insult to korea is lost to the small.

    sorry.

    try again.

    also use bold colors.

  25. Jonathan Quick your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    USinKOrea,

    Great post. I don’t spose you’ve been tempted to spill that info to elected American officials or American trade officials? THe more they know the better.

    #9 Wangkon, where did you get that 90 billion stat? I’m surprised, as I was recently surfing the US trade rep site and it looked like the total exports from Korea to the US was around 46 billion in the most recent year noted.

  26. pawikirogi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    ‘bilateral trade w/the U.S. is almost $90 billion.’ wanggum

    ‘from Korea to the US was around 46 billion in the most recent year noted.’

    ‘a difference between the two.’ pawi

  27. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    Thanks USINKOREA I didn’t know about the USFK candlelight vigil and so on. And I know, a campaign that backfires is the biggest risk.

    But I was thinking more of an advertising campaign, like the equivalent of “Got Milk?” but more informative I guess. The US would have a voice to respond to Korean anti-Americanism, carefully tune by a good Korean agency.

    Of course you’re right that it could backfire, and the more vehement anti-Americans could be counted on to go nuts about it. But I imagine that effective ads for the USA would want to be lighthearted and humorous while trying educate about the US. More than an idea, as advertisers you’d want to create an emotion you’d like associated with your brand. Funny and friendly.

    California. It’s the cheese.
    Got milk?
    US states do this a lot, right?

    Korea does it.
    The “Dynamic Korea” ads and huge billboards I see (for ex on Wilshire Blvd in LA going East into K-Town).

    Does an American equivalent of “Dynamic Korea” exist? I think one of Koreans’ main gripes seems is that they feel ignored, that we and the rest of the world don’t know anything about them. The “you don’t know Korea” line is often steeped in han/resentment. An ad campaign, as cynical as one can be about advertising and PR, would at least be a message that the US is paying attention to them. Somehow I think Koreans might appreciate that. Any Koreans reading this I’d love to hear your thoughts.

    “America: Your Friend.” That’s my crude example.

    Do ads like this exist? I see ads for Ireland or Germany etc all the time. Tellingly, I don’t see them from China or Russia…

    I think the US message could say we like and respect Korea, and work hard to make an image that’s least likely to backfire. And I think that the US and Americans really do like South Korea.

    A campaign could be pretty cost-effective because it would make news and be amplified by word of mouth. The media could distort as they liked but the campaign would be there for everyone to see.

    I’m not the only one with this wacko idea; there are comments here and there on this blog that say “the US really needs a good PR campaign.” I just think that they’re right, literally right.

  28. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    Oops, typo mania in there…

  29. jd your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    day4night,

    There is a certain type of person that enjoys feeling insulted. Facts are not going to get in the way of their good time.

  30. Netizen Kim your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    #9 Wangkon, where did you get that 90 billion stat? I’m surprised, as I was recently surfing the US trade rep site and it looked like the total exports from Korea to the US was around 46 billion in the most recent year noted.

    There’s a discrepancy because you don’t know how to read properly.

  31. Netizen Kim your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Would the general boycott of Korean brand goods include the Hyundai cars that are made in Alabama?

    Also, it wont succeed because many Americans think Samsung and LG are Japanese.

  32. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    A boycott won’t work, but retaliatory tariffs and quotas will. A majority of Hyundai cars sold in the US are imported, not manufactured in Alabama.

  33. mcnut your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    koreans and lunacy?????
    breaking news there

  34. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    The US doesn’t have a voice in Korea. Or does it? Armies and ambassadors can’t really be a good voice (ambassadors have to talk about trade disputes and beef), and Hollywood doesn’t cater to Korea, as demonstrated by the James Bond scandal. So, the US has no cultural voice directed to Korea other than the Americans in Korea. That’s mostly very transient so maybe it can’t break the stereotype enough from the soldier Americans who’ve come to be associated with the bad old days and not the bright future…

    I’m not saying a smart, funny, friendly ad campaign be hugely important or anything, just that it might be worth the trouble.

  35. Wedge your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    The USFK has rejected offers by outside PR agencies to work for them in the past. I don’t know whether anyone’s asked recently.

    One of the problems is that they do all kinds of community volunteer work, such as with orphanages, and the Korean media gives it zero coverage.

  36. Posted June 17, 2008 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    http://www.petersoninstitute.o.....pb07-7.pdf

    Take a look at Table 1.

    $30 bil going West, $45 bil going East, equals $75 bil in bilateral trade. That’s for 2006, and it’s just for merchandise trade (doesn’t include agricultural products (beef), raw materials, or investment flows, tourism, etc.) I don’t think WangKon’s $90 bil sounds out of range at all.

  37. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    That’s interesting Wedge, I didn’t know.

    No media coverage probably because it’s boring; good deeds aren’t usually news unless they’re really unusual or huge.

    Advertisements in subways and magazines, and/or on TVs, don’t need to rely on news coverage (though I think they might get it). Ads are blatant appeals to people’s sympathy. And instead of getting the news to cover you, you can just buy the commercial during the news or the space in the magazine.

    Also I think the USFK cannot do it. Maybe all the USFK can really do is clean up the GI villes, get out of Seoul and hang tight and train until finally they can leave…

  38. R. Elgin your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    . . . like all revolutions that get out of hand, would eventually start eating its own children

    Ummm, that sounds familiar. It sounds as if the only people that might make money in Korea today are barbecue sauce salesmen.

  39. colontos your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    @33

    mcnut is one of my favorite commenters if only because of his tone. Whether I agree or not at any time, I consistently LOL at his posts. Real bare-bones sarcasm, I love it.

  40. Lana your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    “Apart from souvenirs, there is not much in my home that was made in Korea although some electronic goods may contain parts sourced from Korea. US store shelves would be half-empty and merchants left scrambling to replace products no longer available from China or Japan. Trade with China and Japan has raised our standard of living by providing affordable and high quality goods. What is it that we buy from Korea that we could not get elsewhere even though we might pay a little more for it?”

    Exactly.

  41. American Seoul your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    #34
    I disagree that America does not have a voice in Korea. The large number of Korean Americans with cultural ties and family give America a voice. There were something like 600,000 visits by Koreans to the USA last year. The number of students is somewhere around 100k that study in the USA. For a long time AFN Korea was broadcast in most major cities in Korea and the radio version is still in many large cities. With the Internet there is much more access to opposing points of view in Korea. America does have a voice in Korea, the question is how many Koreans are listening to it.

  42. American Seoul your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    However, not sure how much the USA propoganda machine works in Korea or other countries. Often in the mideast or other cuntries, false accusations fly and the US does not answer them. It seems that when the US does not answer the false accusations, the local populance begins to believe them. I do not think it would be hard for the USA to print a position piece on issues effecting it on its embassy web site. I also think the USA should probably hire 10-20 Korean language bloggers to push its viewpoints online. True you can not control what the Korean media prints, but you can get your viewpoint out there. For young Koreans that get the majority of their news online, if the USA can not adapt to 21 century model to get its viewpoints out, then perhaps its message is not worth listening to.

  43. cm your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    “Trade with China and Japan ”

    Sure, it raised your standard of your living - at the expense of your children. Look at the US trade deficit with those two countries - over $1 trillion of Walmart products. Consumption based on debt. I don’t call that “raising your standard of living”. More like mortgaging your future.

    Furthermore, with rapid depletion of of oil fields throughout the world, in the peak oil theory, the US will be militarily fighting it out with China, for the precious Middle East oil fields.

    Globalism and global trade is in trouble anyway. Because we all are heading into unknown territory where our entire life styles will have to change. All this international squabbling may become moot point.

  44. American Seoul your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    Finally, the argument, oh you can not understand, you are not Korean. Its probably time to fight fire with fire. I think I will use that with Koreans. You can not understand the USA, you are not American. A non American can not understand the best country on the planet. By the way, the next time a Korean asks me where I am from, I will answer Chunkuk (heaven) then when they look puzzled and say miguk, I will nod my head yes.

  45. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Sure, it raised your standard of your living - at the expense of your children. Look at the US trade deficit with those two countries - over $1 trillion of Walmart products. Consumption based on debt. I don’t call that “raising your standard of living”. More like mortgaging your future.

    We have a longstanding trade deficit with Korea, too. The problem isn’t that we buy Chinese and Japanese goods. It’s that we buy too much stuff, period. That is finally changing. A sinking economy and rising gas prices are reforming American shopping habits.

  46. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    AmericanSeoul, yes you’re right about Korean Americans. Except that I’m not sure how many Koreans really consider them to be really “American” unfortunately… I mean being 1st generation I’m no more American than any gyopo, but Koreans often think I’m all American (white, blue eyes) and the gyopos are… I don’t know what… less American or not “really” American. Too bad.

    Interesting idea about the bloggers. But I think it’d have to be totally obvious that the US gov’t hired them, or you’d have a scandal just waiting to break…

  47. cm your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    “That is finally changing. ”

    I believe it’s too late Sonagi.
    I believe this theory which would have been dismissed only few years ago, is becoming true.

    http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

    We should be re-examining our priorities in life and appreciate our familes and friends.

  48. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Sonagi I hope you’re right, but May retail sales were up the most in six months. Meanwhile gains in exports (weaker dollar) were eclipsed by losses in petroleum imports (weaker dollar plus the rest of it), so the US trade deficit actually widened last month. But maybe you’ll be proven right, and lots of folks think the retail sales were due to the stimulus checks.

  49. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    The problem with that website is that it ignores alternative sources of energy. As oil becomes scarcer and the price rises, alternatives will become more feasible. Chinese households have much to teach us about energy conservation. In the winter, the thermostat is set to about 61 degrees. They unplug everything when it’s not in use, empty and defrost their fridges when going on vacation, school classrooms have south-facing windows, and many homes in coastal cities have solar panels on the roof. The heating bill for my 2 br. apartment was never more than $80 a month last winter, and thus far, I’ve avoided turning on the AC by using fans to pull in cold air and blow out warm air from evening to morning, and then keeping the windows and drapes closed all day.

    I’m not much on doomsday prophecies, for I believe in the resourcefulness of humanity.

  50. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    Actually Sonagi I don’t know if I hope you’re right or not. In a potentially stagflationary environment, better for US consumers to keep spending or not?

  51. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    Oil and electricity are separate issues btw (goddamn I’m freaking annoying, huh… sorry…)

    Btw a less apocalyptic peak oil site crammed full of geologists is theoildrum.com
    And wikipedia has a decent summary.

    The International Energy Agency, the most respected source of energy info, believes we’re in some kind of peak oil type scenario.

    I don’t know if they’re right or not (supply and demand figures are pretty nasty though).

    But even if it’s true, it doesn’t mean oil can’t fall by even 50% on its way up, or as we might consider it, oil’s path to becoming obsolete which will probably only happen via higher prices…

  52. chris your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    @49 I don’t think China is the best example of energy conservation. While the families might be saving on small things, the big things are being ignored. I read some where that due to poor construction it takes twice as much energy to heat a chinese building as it does to heat a european one. Poorly insulated buildings are also a huge problem in Korea. Unfortunately this is a problem that is not going to go away over night.

  53. Posted June 17, 2008 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    # 44,

    I always thought d4n mean an official American advocacy or interest group. Hell, there are tons of nationalistic shell interest groups in D.C., why not a few pro-U.S. interest groups in Seoul?

  54. cm your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

    “The problem with that website is that it ignores alternative sources of energy”

    No it didn’t. I suggest you read the extensive coverage of the problems with ‘alternative energy’. His summary: ‘alternative energy’ is a dishonest hope. It’s either is too weak to be of real hope or requires too much oil to create it - defeating its purpose.

    I agree with you though, this will not be end of mankind. But it will be a time of great tribulations to come. Even the most optomistic news says we have 40 years of oil left. I don’t know about you Sonagi, but in 40 years I’ll be an old man, but it would still be well within my life time.

    Either way, globalism is doomed. Distance will be the new enemy. Our economies will not be based on manufacturing. It will be based on hard labor intensive farming. Our goods will be produced locally and consumed locally. All our social entities will be localized. Suburbs and rural towns will empty. Big cities will struggle. Smaller cities will do better.

    Unlike that website I quoted, the decline of human industrial and technological revolution will be steady and gradual (as the oil runs out gradually over the next couple of decades).

    China and India will never become global economic superpowers. Instead they will be grave enemies as we in the west compete against them for the limited resources.

    I believe this is the more realistic prediction here:

    http://www.rollingstone.com/ne....._emergency

  55. Posted June 17, 2008 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    # 54,

    Doomsday theories come and go but never pan out. Ever since the days of Thomas Malthus and his way too linear catastrophe theories on population growth and increasing misery of humanity. Malthus ignored the fact that necessity is the mother of invention and that increases in technology always raises productivity and efficiency, thus technology allowed mankind to avoid the Malthusian Trap.

    Your thoughts on impending disaster fails to account for human ingenuity, which as been a constant since men have been able to figure out that light weight sharpened sticks could be thrown at animals and grains can be cultivated in accordance with a calender.

  56. Posted June 17, 2008 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    # 36,

    Thanks Linkd, you saved me some typing again. My figure for $90 billion is an 2008 LTM estimate. I believe 2007 bilateral trade was $85 billion.

  57. cm your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 12:50 pm | Permalink

    Wangkon, I’ll end this peak oil theory with this. You say mankind’s ingenuity will make sure we don’t face disaster. I sure hope you are right because the best predictions say we only have 40 years of oil left (and it will deplete even more rapidly if development in Asia picks up more steam). We have 40 years based on unpredictable Saudi claims of their oil reserves, to come up with an unknown solution. Yet here we are talking about ramping up productions, claim more and more made in China consumption is good, and we encourage people to have more and more kids, living in monster houses in the suburbia.

  58. cm your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    And by the way, Hyundai union vote turned down the strike. They got 48.5% of the vote, which fell short of what they needed. Chosun Ilbo claims the union members are sick and tired of political strikes. But I think the members got scared that their cars will be tarriffed out of the US market if they went on strike in support of the anti US mad cow loons.

    http://news.chosun.com/site/da.....00092.html

  59. pawikirogi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

    i often think of myself as the only person in the know at marmot’s hole. thank god somebody else can see what i can see! korea number five, china number one? in my mind a moot point:

    ‘Furthermore, with rapid depletion of of oil fields throughout the world, in the peak oil theory, the US will be militarily fighting it out with China, for the precious Middle East oil fields.

    Globalism and global trade is in trouble anyway. Because we all are heading into unknown territory where our entire life styles will have to change. All this international squabbling may become moot point.’ cm

    on the money.

  60. day4night your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    OMFG Pawi that’s it! You’re the Galileo of the Marmot’s Hole where we all think the world is flat!

  61. Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

    pawi,

    Keep in mind that Korea’s population does not have the wealth to sustain its per capita, let alone a Japanese-like per capita solely on it’s own. Thus, it needs to sell its products overseas if it ever hopes to be as rich as Japan. Obviously the Japanese have figured this out. I just hope more Koreans don’t prescribe to your belief so we can close our markets, and return to the days of being a pre-industrial society, blissfully ignorant with how the world is passing us by until the Russians or Japanese take us over with incredible ease and take away our freedom, heritage and culture all because we stuck our head in a hole in the dirt like a ridiculous confucian ostridge.

  62. Sperwer your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

    I just hope more Koreans don’t prescribe to your belief so we can close our markets, and return to the days of being a pre-industrial society, blissfully ignorant with how the world is passing us by until the Russians or Japanese take us over with incredible ease and take away our freedom, heritage and culture all because we stuck our head in a hole in the dirt like a ridiculous confucian ostridge.

    Well, the tiger shows his stripes. Please ask Marmot to let you change your flag designator accordingly.

  63. Kim your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    Remember the D-War/Dragon Wars (one of the funniest movies I’ve ever seen) phenomenon? You can’t reason with most Koreans. lol

  64. pawikirogi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    you misunderstand; i predict big problems on the horizon for ALL of earth’s people, not just koreans. please, re read what cm wrote. that’s the future i see. i’d love to think that korea will be a top five nation within 30 years but i’m doubtful since i wonder if we are going to have the resources to enrich anybody’s life.

    wang, haven’t you notice that the quality of life has declined here in the states? why do you think that is? think it might have something to do with two biliion more people wanting to live like us? there won’t be enough to go around. cm’s got it pegged. it’s going to be a bumpy future.

    ********

    as for day4night, the guy runs a sex blog about koreans having sex. it must irritate him that i remind folks about it.

  65. Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

    Sperwer,

    I thought I addressed that here:

    http://www.rjkoehler.com/2008/.....ent-134721

    You were part of that thread or do you have Alzheimer’s?

  66. swlee your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

    oh, where is the blog? How can i find it? what sort of person would do such a thing?

  67. pawikirogi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    ‘oh, where is the blog? How can i find it? what sort of person would do such a thing?’

    once i realized the guy’s blog was almost exclusively about what koreans do with their genitals, i never went back. that’s why i don’t know what he calls his blog. however, about a month ago, he put up a trackback with the title:

    ‘how lee hyo ri’s breast are metaphors for the korean entertainment industry’

    perhaps you can google it. what kind of person would maintain such a blog? somebody who has a fixation, of course.

  68. pawikirogi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    day4night, could you tell us what your blog’s name is?

  69. Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    I’m curious too — what’s day4night’s blog?

    I Googled the phrase “How Lee Hyo Ri’s Breasts Are Metaphors for the Korean Entertainment Industry” and found it leads to the Grand Narrative blog. That guy’s name is James Turnbull, he’s married and lives in Busan. My friend day4night has a different name, is probably shacking up with some lady, and lives in Los Angeles.

    If day4night has a blog about people’s genitals, I am sure interested to see it. Genitals are always interesting.

  70. pawikirogi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    A RARE APOLOGY FROM PAWI

    got it wrong. lawyer is right. i apologize.

  71. swlee your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    Damn, so …
    no blog on Koreans having sex?
    This James Turnballs guy is just another english teacher with a computer in the teachers office. When I want to read drivel like that I turn to Marmots Hole.
    Accept no substitute.

  72. Sperwer your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    #

    Sperwer,

    I thought I addressed that here:

    http://www.rjkoehler.com/2008/…..ent-134721

    You were part of that thread or do you have Alzheimer’s?

    You’re an interesting specimen but, sorry jagun kongju, you’re not that interesting that I keep track of your murmurings. Besides, as I recall, in that thread you tried to distinguish between political loyalty and cultural affinity. Now, it’s apparent that was indeed the bit of dissimulation that it only perhaps seemed to be at the time.

  73. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 17, 2008 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think China is the best example of energy conservation. While the families might be saving on small things, the big things are being ignored.

    That’s why I limited my praise to Chinese households. Chinese buildings are inefficient to heat because of a lack of insulation.

    Yet here we are talking about ramping up productions, claim more and more made in China consumption is good, and we encourage people to have more and more kids, living in monster houses in the suburbia.

    Maybe Canada is encouraging its families to have more kids, but the US is not. I just read a story yesterday about how the sprawling suburban ideal established in the post-WWII era is giving way to densely populated areas with housing and shopping located in the same neighborhood. One can see this happening in the gentrification of Arlington, VA, just outside DC, and some southside Chicago neighborhoods. It’s not only young people but families who are forsaking large homes and long commutes for the convenience of urban living. The article mentioned that some McMansions in far-flung suburbs are becoming multi-family rentals with ten people in one home.

  74. Posted June 18, 2008 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    # 72,

    Annexation of Korea by Japan happened over a hundred years ago. So I thought I could talk in terms of using possessive forms without having the McCarthy Committee of UnAmerica Activites monitor, and misunderstand, my comments.

    You are clearly more interested in yourself than you are in me. I merely thought you’d remember because we had a discussion about Northern Italy, a subject you knew more about… ;)

  75. Posted June 18, 2008 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    Well I for one appreciate James Turnbull’s balanced analysis of Korean society and culture. Wish I saw more of it in the expat community.

  76. Sonagi your flag
    Posted June 18, 2008 at 1:36 am | Permalink

    WangKon936, I can’t believe you’re linking to that awful Godfather-as-a-metaphor-for-bicultural-assimilation post.

  77. Posted June 18, 2008 at 2:16 am | Permalink

    Hey, that’s your opinion. It had its co-supporters also, if you don’t remember.

  78. Sperwer your flag
    Posted June 18, 2008 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    Hey, that’s your opinion. It had its co-supporters also, if you don’t remember.

    Ah, the typical Korean gambit: forget about whether it’s tight, just count up how many people subscribe.

  79. Sperwer your flag
    Posted June 18, 2008 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    “right”

  80. Posted June 18, 2008 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    # 78,

    Yes Sperwer, I’m hard wired and predictable just like that! However, it’s just too bad not everybody fits into your neat linear world, least of all me.

    Hey, all that was three months ago. Let it go.

  81. Sperwer your flag
    Posted June 18, 2008 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    You brought it up, nimrod; I forgot about it remember?

  82. Posted June 19, 2008 at 1:22 am | Permalink

    I only brought it up because you were on the verge of having me sign a loyalty oath for what I wrote in # 61, which was clearly taken out of context.

    You know, you have a real fondness for painting people with a broad brush. Maybe it’s because it’s easier for you to attack them. Poking pins into voodoo dolls of your own creation is a lot easier I suppose. Assuming that my love of being American is any less than yours is stepping over a boundary in my book. You keep doing that and you are seriously going to piss me off.

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