Han Sangwan, chief economist at think-tank Hyundai Research Institute in Seoul. The beef dispute could become a bigger issue…“Unless the U.S. shows flexibility over its beef exports to address Koreans’ concerns over food safety, a wholesale boycott of U.S. products could follow,”

Boycott? Really? What is Han doing a little comedy routine? Does the Hyundai Research Institute have a cover and two-drink minimum?

What US good can Korean consumers boycott Mr. Han? Not buy the 5 Australian made Ford Mondeo’s sold a year in Korea? Avoid Nike shoes imported direct from China? No Columbian coffee from Starbucks? Reject those Big Macs made from Australian beef?

Korea set up a system where by most imports are behind the scenes. Samsung microchips are assembled by machines from Palo Alto, not Pusan. The grain in Hite beer comes from Kansas, not Kwangju. The rice meal in Orion’s snacks comes from the Sacramento Delta, not the Suwon corridor. Even Korea’s vaunted internet connections come from Patents partly held by companies in Texas, not Taejeon.

KFC? Owned in Korea by Doosan. Krispy Kreme Donuts? Owned in Korea by Lotte. Starbucks? Owned in Korea by Shinsaegae.

Korean import policy is driven by the idea that a domestic partner is the essental part of getting imports into the consumers hands. If any “boycott” did happen it would either hurt the wrong people, or serve to shoot a few Korean companies in the foot. So lets be clear, a meaningful consumer boycott of US goods is pretty impossible without confusion or collateral (domestic) damage.

But I don’t think WTO can do anything to enforce any of their rulings, even if Korea wins

The WTO can do something between ‘f*** all’ and ‘not a whole lot’. Basically, they can authorize SK to enact its own relatiatory measures. Of course, the flip side to that (and why this thing will likely never see the WTO) is that they could side with the US, and find the SK ban unreasonable and order SK to open up their beef market. And even if SK could enact retaliatory measures, do they have enough power to make the US back down? After all, the SK economy is already closed in so many different ways, it would be hard to imagine where they could find a lot of room to enact more protectionist measures than they already have… and then there’s always the issue of how much trade power SK really has over the US… Do they have enough muscle to make the US back down?

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Could the tensions develop into a full-blown trade war? It’s possible, says Han Sangwan, chief economist at think-tank Hyundai Research Institute in Seoul. The beef dispute could become a bigger issue if it’s taken up during this year’s U.S. Presidential election. The Korean public could inflame tensions, too. “Unless the U.S. shows flexibility over its beef exports to address Koreans’ concerns over food safety, a wholesale boycott of U.S. products could follow,” says Han. “And that could trigger protectionist retaliation.” The collapse of an FTA would mean a “serious chasm between the two,” he adds.

With some of the pie now, and things getting worse still, if I were a GNPer, I’d try to get any friends in the editorial boards in the Korean press to switch from the rolling number of “If Lee had done this - if Lee had done that” stories to —

—- rolling, day-after-day stories of how much Cows Gone Wild!! Hysteria is making Koreans look like provincial bumpkins in the world community — doing damage to Korea’s name brand and hurting exports.

That isn’t true — but the number of stories out in the world press could likely convince Korean society it is true — and they’d turn off the spigot of support for the regular anti-US crew pdq.

The solipsistic perspective ie. (I think it’s correct, I assert it is correct, therefore it is correct) does not constitute a valid argument outside of the Republic of Korea. Outside Korea, there are objective standards by which attitudes and behaviors are judged. Koreans need to learn that they will be judged by their attitudes and behaviors, and that this is already beginning to happen.

For instance, negative attitudes about Korea are proliferating at an ever-advancing pace as others come into contact with Koreans. Increasingly, Koreans are being judged as childish, irrational, arrogant, jingoistic and xenophobic. This is a judgement Koreans are bringing on themselves because, when thousands take to the street without just cause to express anti-American sentiments, this personality disorder appears to be the rule, rather than the exception.

How can Korea change its image? It can’t. It must change its culture first, and international opinion will adapt accordingly.

Great to see you posting (been pretty busy lately, huh?)

Anyway, a great post as usual. Hope to see more.

As for Usinkorea’s comment:

“Those parties are now back into the hunt already. If the GNP let’s it go on my much, without trying to stem the tide, the GNP could very well see the stage set for a lose of major ground in the National Assembly next election.”

Therein lies the dilema. The GNP members are pandering to the public. They should have rallied around Lee from the beginning. Now if they stop pandering, what would be their status with the voters look like? Either way, they were going to sink politically. They should have taken the high moral road from the beginning, instead of playing politics. Now they’re not only going to look like idiots, but they’re still going to sink politically anyway. Politics in ROK, is so fucked up. It makes the dictators of 70’s and 80’s actually look like good leaders.

The man’s only got 1 5 year term to begin with.

Part of what we are seeing is other elements in the government taking him down over the size of the victory he and the conservatives one.

Players (in and out of his party) want to strike early to condition his rule. Once they saw the opening, they have moved to capitalize on it, and it came early enough for them to press full force in the hopes of setting conditions favorable for them in the future.

At some point, if this keep up, I’d expect the GNP to rally around Lee.

I’d expect Lee is going to have to cut some significant deals for now and the future —-

—- but unless the GNP is rather stupid, I’d imagine they will come to understand soon that they have to strike back in Lee’s favor or risk giving too much ground to the opposition parties — parties that were all but dead after the last election.

Those parties are now back into the hunt already. If the GNP let’s it go on my much, without trying to stem the tide, the GNP could very well see the stage set for a lose of major ground in the National Assembly next election.

In short…..after a little more damage to Lee…..I’d expect wagon-circle calls to go out in the party and conservative press.

I just wanted to say that a population…can therefore be exploited to some degre.

Canadians’ spelling of words in English can be confusing to non-Canadians at times. Would that be deger in American English?

Je plaisante