Pyongyang is apparently miffed that South Korea no longer has a leader who will bend over and take it:
In a sign of tense inter-Korean relations, North Korea Thursday expelled most of Korean officials from the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
The turnaround of the North’s stance came in an apparent protest over the current Lee Myung-bak administration’s tough policy in dealing with the reclusive nation.
President Lee has said his government would pursue pragmatic policies by linking inter-Korean economic exchanges to the international efforts to resolve the lingering standoff over the North’s nuclear development program.
Lee’s stance is in stark contrast with the previous two governments which had been seeking the reconciliatory “sunshine policy” engaging North Korea.
North Korea reportedly showed 11 of 13 South Korean officials the door.
UPDATE: In particular, the North Koreans cited South Korean Unification Minister Kim Ha-jung’s March 19 comment to an association of small and mid-sized businesses that “it would be difficult to expand the Kaesong Industrial Complex without a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue” as their reason for demanding the removal of the South Korean officials from Kaesong.
The North Koreans apparently made the request verbally on March 24. Seoul asked that the North put its official position in writing, but the North refused. Following repeated requests by the North for the officials’ removal, the South finally complied this morning.
UPDATE 2: This underlines the basic “problem” with President Lee Myung-bak’s “practical” policies towards the North and a “new basic spirit,” namely, good luck getting North Korea to play along. I put “problem” in quotes because I have a sneaking suspicion that Lee is a bigger hardliner than he sounds and doesn’t view it as a problem — he predicates relations with the North on reciprocity and a solution to the nuke issue, which, given how the North doesn’t “do” reciprocity and has no intention of giving up its nukes, essentially means intra-Korean relations stand poised to go in the tank. And LMB knows it.
43 Comments
Tense inter-Korean relations = good buying opportunities in Korean stocks. First rule in business 101 is profit from hardship.
Let’s hope this works for my Fantasy Stock Exchange account boshintang. I got nailed shorting DB this morning.
As long as there isn’t even the semblance of reciprocity in inter-Korean relations, South Korea shouldn’t feel the need to put up with the north’s infantile bullshit. A little bit of charity and a few symbolic gestures here and there are alright, even if the sentiment isn’t always returned or appreciated. Anything beyond should be put on hold until the north makes some real fundamental changes in areas like human rights and their nuclear program(s). (In other words, until the Fat Man dies and goes to hell.)
You should have shorted before the bell. But it looks like you lost less than one percent anyway, nothing to sweat about (especially for something as boring as a fantasy account). I like more risk, I might be shorting MOT at the opening of the bell tonight, it looks like Motorola’s showdown with investor Icahn won’t be resolved any time soon. But back to inter-Korean relations…
The North doesn’t do reciprocity because this has not been expected of it for the last ten years. A dose of tough love might be just the thing to have them come crawling back, cap in hand.
It’s about time the ROK stops bending over so politely like some love starved whore to Kim Jong Ill!
#5,
Brings up a question: What is the better option for South Korea in the event that the North Korean regime collapses: 1) Korean reunification or, 2) North Korean being absorbed by China? North Korea hates the fact that it can’t blackmail the current South Korean government because it doesn’t fear the former nor the latter. Reunification, if and when it occurs, will take place under South Korean terms, that has never been any clearer than now.
I agree with Village Idiot and Aaronm. The North should know by now that the South is sincere in its gestures of reconciliation, so all President Lee is doing is telling them that it takes two to tango.
Far from being a “problem, President Lee’s strategy is the right strategy.
#8,
Problem is, North Korea is like an old bully who thinks he can still order people around despite the fact that he’s blind and crippled.
#7: “What is the better option for South Korea in the event that the North Korean regime collapses: 1) Korean reunification or, 2) North Korean being absorbed by China?”
You act as if No. 2 hasn’t already happened.
I’m with King Baeksu on this one.
If NK finally does bite the big one, and UN relief forces roll in only to discover that China already has everything under control, all the way down to district administrators and railway cars full of supplies ready to stabilize the situation, I wouldn’t be a single whit surprised.
Then later, once things look to be under control, and the UN and whoever else asks China to kindly pass control of NK over to some kind of autonomous government, and China expresses no inclination to do so, I wouldn’t be a whit surprised either.
China’s gonna Tibet the HELL out of North Korea at some point (or try to), and in my estimation, the only reasons they haven’t so far are because
1. NK provides a nice distraction to China’s own human rights violations, and
2. China would prefer to settle things in Tibet and get Taiwan back under the Imperial Thumb before pissing off Minjok and the Daehans, featuring special guest Miguk Blondhair: a few more decades of alienation to slowly loosen that feeling of blood loyalty between the Koreas will make the takeover easier when they decide to move.
I think NK’s recalcitrance is a posture they are required to maintain by the Chinese puppet-masters, for China’s own purposes, and the Poor Leader Comrade Kim is stuck between a ROK and a hard place (China withdrawing all stabilizing support, leading to an instant collapse, if he asks for help from SK instead of from Chairman Hu).
That’s what I think, no I don’t have evidence or satellite photos or intelligence reports to back it up, but at this point I wouldn’t put ANYTHING past China’s manifest destiny strategy. . . not that I know what I’m talking about or anything. . . but from where I stand, that’s how it looks.
You and China are dreaming.
For one Koreans in general don’t want any Chinese here. They will need to fight through a 4-5 million North Koreans fit for service.
Not to mention immediate entry of South Korea and the US.
The last thing China wants is North Korea to fall. If it does it paves the way for a war with China.
#12; Why do people insist on continuing to view today’s world through the outdated prism of the nation-state system?
Follow the money, guys. Everything else is a distraction.
oh hey, there’s gonna be a lot of poo flying in every direction, and probably a bunch of military hijinks, and it’s gonna be a wild ride in the east-asian arena. . .
but
1. you forget how patient China is. They invaded Tibet, basically with the attitude, “in two generations, people will forget about it; by then we’ll have reprogrammed enough tibetans through propaganda and school textbooks, and diluted the population’s racial purity through state-sponsored mixing and migration that we can start rewriting the history books”. When it’s so long after the point that basically only historians call foul, nothing’s gonna get done to fix things. They’ll wait this one out, too — see what happens with this whole “decline of the American Empire” thing, prop up NK as long as it suits them, wait for an indecisive American president and a leftist/nationalist Korean president who alienates SK from their US ally. . . and then make their play.
2. they won’t have to fight through the NK folk if they’re their main source of food and aid, and the longer China’s the main source of aid in NK, the easier it will be for them to slide right in as the new ruling elite. SK’ll be right pissed, but the diplomatic standoffishness (fostered by both sides) means that SK and US only have about a ten-foot-pole’s worth of influence on NK, while China’s right in there (surreptitiously) digging in their tentacles as we speak, for all we know.
Yeah, SK and US will have something to say about it, they probably wouldn’t want to do anything until after Comrade Kim Jong-il dies, because of his personality cult, and it’ll get messy as the 2 girls 1 cup video, but it’d be naive to think that the Chinese bigwigs aren’t brainstorming ways to make a play for Koguryeo (oops I mean North Korea) with minimal hitting of fans by shit.
sounds like baby up north needs his diaper changed.
Someguy, et al. I favor the Chinese playing a major role but wonder if it would be absorption. A southern-led takeover would doubtless cost the ROK and the west oodles and result in a belligerently nationalist basket-case of a state that the west would no doubt feel obliged to prop up. A North Korea under the sway of China would involve far less financial pain and allow the former to find its way from Stalinist Disneyland to Military dictatorship with an emergent market economy. Reunification isn’t going to happen any time soon, so this is the next best thing for both Koreans and other interested parties.
I think NK’s recalcitrance is a posture they are required to maintain by the Chinese puppet-masters
China doesn’t control NK. They have influence and perhaps that influence will increase over time, but the way I see it NK is governed by 3 overriding principles, in this order:
Race.
Idoltry.
Ideology.
Race is the big one, followed by worship of the leader, followed by adherence to the principles espoused by the previous leader, Kim Il Sung.
The Chinese have influence, and that influence will increase owing to a collapsing government and uncontrolled corruption. But the Chinese will never rule in NK, not even in a puppet-string sense, because they’re not Joseon-saram. Ethnicism is everything. The Chinese won the Korean War, with help from Russia, but to go to NK today you wouldn’t realize it. According to local doctrine, the Norks did it all themselves. They consider China a partner, no more.
I think NK’s recalcitrance is a posture they are required to maintain by the Chinese puppet-masters
China doesn’t control NK and probably never will. They have influence and perhaps that influence will increase over time, but the way I see it NK is governed by 3 overriding principles, in this order:
Race.
Idoltry.
Ideology.
Race is the big one, followed by worship of the leader, followed by adherence to the principles espoused by the previous leader, Kim Il Sung.
The Chinese have influence, and that influence will increase owing to a collapsing government and uncontrolled corruption. But the Chinese will never rule in NK, not even in a puppet-string sense, because they’re not Joseon-saram. Ethnicism is everything. They consider China a partner, no more.
From a Chinese point of view, they may well be able to win control of NK through military means, but to what end? NK is a nice buffer so long as it remains stable. They’ll prop it up if need be, but there is nothing to gain for them by occupying it; I doubt they consider it a potential asset.
Hoju Saram, recall what happened to Yang Bin in 2002 and then compare that with NK’s current treatment of ROK officials in Kaesong.
I wonder how a new hard-line approach to the North will in turn impact developments like this:
http://english.chosun.com/w21d.....30025.html
“N. Korea Becoming China’s ‘Fourth Northeastern Province’”
One thing’s for certain: We know who NK’s Big Brother really is. NK can take care of such practical things as population control, security and whatnot, as long as Big Brother gets paid.
Hojusaram:
Aww heck, you’re probably right — I looked around your website a bit (well-put-together, by the way) and I’m guessing you’d know more about it all than I do. I’m just an English teaching yahoo from Canada, and somebody once told me I’m not supposed to have opinions. . .
but it’s more fun to be a conspiracy theorist — “why not” is more fun than “probably not” almost every time.
You’re right that at this point there’s nothing to be gained from China’s occupying NK, especially with the more pressing matters of Taiwan and Tibet (to say nothing of Beijing ‘08), and nobody knows what the future holds. However, the fact remains that I really wouldn’t put anything past China’s brazen manifest destiny dealings, and still wouldn’t be surprised at all to learn they’re much more deeply involved in the running of NK than we currently realize.
I’ll happily admit I’m wrong when information comes to light, but for now, DPRK remains conveniently opaque.
thanks for that link Baeksu, I had no idea the regime was doing so much whoring. Interesting that the mining is in the prison areas. The Musan Iron Mine is pretty close to Yodok. I don’t suppose that will bother them too much though.
Roboseyo, nope I’m just an armchair pundit like the rest (and by rest, I mean everyone). Your guesses are as good as mine.
I think a lot of you guys are making two huge mistakes:
1: North Korea is not as close to collapsing (at least politically) as most of you think. Let’s take a look at this. By the time the end of the Cold War arrived North Korea had already made its giant shit sandwich and was preparing to take a bite out of it. With the collapse of the Soviet bloc North Korea lost almost ALL of its aid and fuel at “friendship” prices. Now, at this point however North Korea was in a far worse economic state than the USSR or the other states in the Soviet bloc, but those states all collapsed and North Korea survived. Why? Because the North Korean political system is much stronger and more stable than people think. They have proven that they will do whatever it takes to maintain control…..like allowing 10% of their population to starve to death. Grant it, KJI is not going to be around forever. Rumors have it that he is grooming his middle or younger son to take over, but whether or not he will have the support of the military remains to be seen. The most likely scenario is that after KJI is gone a military dictatorship will come to power.
2. Some of you guys seem to think that China WANTS North Korea to collapse. Sorry, but this could not be further from the truth. First, China has been trying to convince its Asian neighbors for the last 20 years that it does not seek a hegemony, as most Asian states are afraid that China will seek to create a new “tributary” system again. The Chinese have been bending over backwards to show that they are not interested in this. Now, whether or not you believe the Chinese is another matter. But if North Korea did collapse and China moved in, then that would be 20 years of (successful, I might add) diplomacy down the drain. No, China will not invade North Korea. Yes, China does have a huge influence over North Korea from an economic point of view and if they wanted to make the North collapse all they would have to do would be to turn off the aid pipeline. Does China like North Korea and KJI? Most academics and researchers will tell you “no” and I agree with them. They are just as tired of North Korea and KJI’s bullshit as the rest of the world and they wish the North Koreans would learn to stop being the child trying to force the square peg into the round hole. However, China does not want to see the North collapse for several reasons. First, any full political collapse of the North would obviously mean unification under the South’s terms. This would mean a capitalist and democratic society on China’s border. They don’t want this (even though China is already a capitalist society). Second, the US would most likely remain in Korea even after unification, at least for some time. So now US troops would literally have an open road to China, should they feel froggy one day. China would prefer to keep North Korea around as a buffer against both democracy and the US military. China would be glad to see KJI go, as long as the North remained. Again, a military dictatorship would suit the Chinese just fine.
Also, don’t count out South Korea. Many South Koreans would like to see the North stick around for the time being as NO ONE thinks that the South can handle reunification without MASSIVE aid. So even if KJI kicked the bucket, a large (majority?) segment of the South Korean population would probably not mind too much if a military dictatorship came to power and the North hung around for a few more decades. Do you really think South Koreans want to see 20 million poor North Koreans flooding the South, no matter how much they are “brothers”?
#17 hoju: “…The Chinese won the Korean War, with help from Russia, but to go to NK today you wouldn’t realize it….”
Deciding who “won” depends on what particular moment in time you decide to take a “snapshot” of either side’s war aims.
The Chinese “won” as defined by their war aims when they entered the conflict in Nov 1950, but they “lost” if you go by their war aims of early 1951 (when, encouraged by their early success, they hoped and expected to throw the UN forces off the peninsula entirely).
From the perspective of HG Wells’ Martians — looking down through their telescopes impersonally at the Earth — I think you’d have to say that an approx return to the status quo ante bellum constitutes a “draw”.
Paul, you’re right, that was lazy of me. What I meant was the Chinese won the Communist victories, as opposed to the North Koreans. A draw is a fair assessment.
(Although in saying that, the Chinese “volunteers” performed far better than any other soldiers in the entire war, the Turks possibly excepted. They fought with minimal artillery support, against an enemy which boasted total air and sea superiority and which was far more techonologically advanced. They had broken supply lines, most of the time, were living on a potato a day for months on end, could only march at night, but still managed to push the US all the way from the Yalu back beyond Seoul. Its not called the Forgotten War stateside just for any reason.)
The Chinese won in the sense that they prevented the US from having direct access to a Chinese border.
Chinese influence is severely limited. Take a look at the nuclear crisis for example. The NK nuclear test epitomes China’s inability to influence the nation.
The Chinese soldiers were war hardened and not militia. The Chinese and North Koreans actually had initial air superiority with the help of the Soviets. Naval superiority is meaningless.
The Chinese succeeded mainly through larger numbers even though casualties are nearly triple that of the UN forces.
@13, what nonsense are you talking about now?
#25: Stacked, you have excellent Netiquette.
Remember what happened with Yang Bin? If the Chinese hadn’t pulled the plug on Shinuiju, Kaesong would not have heppened. Don’t tell me the Chinese have no influence in North Korea.
I agree the Chinese would like to keep NK as a buffer state, but it is clear that LMB’s new hard-line approach to the North and consequent slow-down of N-S economic exchanges will only accelerate Chinese economic control of the North and its mineral resources:
http://english.chosun.com/w21d.....30025.html
This is the “nonsense” I am talking about, along with a lot of other people.
In a related news…
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23837556
Oh boy…
“Chinese influence is severely limited. Take a look at the nuclear crisis for example. The NK nuclear test epitomes China’s inability to influence the nation.”
I very much doubt that.
1. NK does some stupid shit.
2. The US freaks out.
3. The US tries to get NK to stop doing stupid shit.
4. That doesn’t work.
5. The US goes to China and asks China to put pressure on NK to stop doing stupid shit.
6. China does so and extracts concessions from the US in return.
7. NK stops doing stupid shit, for a while…
8. Cycle repeats
NK’s continued existance is great for China, makes for a great bargaining chip wrt the US.
As bumfromkorea reported, it seems Kim’s gone-ill - Kim Jong Il, has had another temper tantrum because he ain’t enough milk and honey, and thrown some toys out of his stroller .. launching a few missiles into the unsuspecting West Sea.
It worked when dealing Comrade Roh, it’ll be interesting to see how 2MB deals with his cry-baby shit.
#29: It’s always a mistake to underestimate Kim Jong-illin’ and indeed that kind of attitude is often what sets him off. I personally believe he is quite rational and an expert master of game theory. It’s been reported that the current missile test is an attempt to influence the upcoming legislative elections here by making LMB’s hard-line policy towards the North an issue.
As for China, I believe Saxiif has a pretty good take on the situation.
#7 - “Brings up a question: What is the better option for South Korea in the event that the North Korean regime collapses: 1) Korean reunification or, 2) North Korean being absorbed by China?”
Allow me to posit 3)
3) After the United States enters what is essentially a ‘Great Depression’ in late 2008-2009, due to 8 years of Republican fiscal irresponsibility/lunacy, a suddenly bankrupt US pulls it’s forces out of many client states exactly the same as the Soviet Union had to do in 89-90.
This includes the prosperous and relatively wealthy military client state of South Korea.
This gives North Korea what it has patiently waited for since 1953 - a rerun of N vs. S warfare which it is convinced it will win. KJI, getting old and being profoundly narcisstic, decides why not try to take the peninsula?
Invasion ensues. SK girly-boys give up immediately. Seoul is renamed KJI City, as Hanoi was similarly renamed. Japan goes nuclear, and nothing much else changes.
You’re probably right. He’s not doubt intelligent and in his mind there’s logic in his madness, where he no doubt weighs up many factors before pulling off stunts like this. But, I still believe, that although he is very wise and canny - he’d have to be to still be in power, he is a mentally unstable and unpredictable bully who treats the lives and security of his people as pawns in order to get what he wants.
The last 10 years, particularly during Roh’s presidency has shown that Kim Jong Il will take all the goodwill and financial aids with great glee but do nothing to change his regime and the state of North Korea’s economy and people.
There needs to be a stronger stick attached to the carrot to let him know things aren’t quite as rosy for him as the last 10 years.
I think, thank goodness, even South Koreans have started to tire of his nonsense and want a harder approach towards North Korea. I just hope 2MB doesn’t go in too hard and set Kim Jong Il off even further.
I think morale within North Korea amongst everyday North Koreans is an all-time low with more news filtering in from the outside and the NK military is a shadow of its former self with little power left in its punch. I think LMB knows this all too well and is playing Kim Jong Il’s bluff, which is incredibly risky, unless you’re entirely confident you’re playing the correct hand.
In short, the last 10 years hasn’t worked. It’s time for a new approach, keeping in mind what consequences it may bring.
Oh, and waygooks and expats of all types who survive the initial onslaught are tortured, then put against a wall and shot. Pawikirogi accuses their dead bodies of exaggerating the negative side of Korean nationalism, and indignantly tells a story about how in America, the other day, a white guy asked him ‘No, where did your parents come from? Now THAT’s racism!’
#32: “It’s time for a new approach, keeping in mind what consequences it may bring.”
You are correct and that’s one reason why I hope Obama wins the upcoming US presidential election, given his stated willingness to talk with our “enemies.” I don’t think Kim Jong-il cares one way or the other what any ROK President really thinks about his regime or its policies, but he does care what the US thinks.
Indeed, the Clinton administration was on the verge of solving the NK nuclear crisis back in 2000 but then Bush won and the neocons cut off all direct talks with the North (pooh-poohing any deals with the North as “appeasement”), which directly led to the nuclear test of 2006. If Gore had won I would argue that there would never have been a nuclear test because the North’s nuclear-weapons program would have been dismantled, and N-S relations would be much better than they are today.
As I have already argued, China is the ultimate beneficiary of this hard-line approach.
“I would argue that there would never have been a nuclear test because the North’s nuclear-weapons program would have been dismantled,”
That will never, never happen. Nukes in NK will always be kept, secretly, no matter what enthusiastic pronouncements naive western govts make.
If the above is accepted, then it can be argued that under the Clinton admin, NK got almost completed light water reactors, while under the the Bush admin (which I despise) they got those reactors cancelled.
Insanely, the US continues to pump food in, no matter what admin. NK is now the largest recipient of US aid in Asia, and has been for 5 years. I call it, an dno doubt cannier Asian countries concur, The Retarded Behemoth….
33: baiting Pawi is kind of like being the guy who says “Hey! Let’s do shots!” when you’re out drinking: may as well go home now.
I’ve been interested in this thread (#28 saxif — well said, and #32, el canguro — well said as well — even if it’s old and decrepit, it’s still not wise to corner a wolverine). Calling KJI’s bluff may mean a confrontation with a starving army; it may lead to some kind of an “I’m gonna starve an entire province to death, just because fuck you” maneuver, it may lead to two million starving refugees trying to cross the DMZ minefields on foot and swamping the Chinese border. . . but it’ll probably just lead to more NK dependence on China, giving them even MORE leverage on the Korean peninsula. Unless I’m wrong (it’s happened before), China won’t let NK collapse completely until it suits them. They’re too good a distraction from China’s own agenda.
It’ll be interesting how things play out over here, especially given a possible slowdown in the US Economy, which will only give China even MORE leverage than they had before, and might embolden them, at the same time as the food shortage in NK is finally reaching the capital. When a leader is willing to hold his own population hostage, using starvation as a political weapon, there’s just no telling what might happen next. Kim Jong’s illin’ knows no bounds, and let’s not forget that there’s no guarantee his successor will be any less nuts, given that he’ll have been raised and groomed in his own father and grandfather’s personality cult.
Yeah, it’s kind of like a dude caught in a chokehold croaking, “You best step off before I get mad!” but then, that dude might yet have a knife in his pocket, and could yet mess some shit up before he passes out.
Not that I know what SHOULD be done, but boy, it’s a mess up there.
#35: “That will never, never happen. Nukes in NK will always be kept, secretly, no matter what enthusiastic pronouncements naive western govts make.”
Perhaps, perhaps not, but there are degrees of naivety. Conservatives often dismiss liberals as hopelessly naive, but history proves that it is the neocons who have been hopelessly naive over the past 7 years. Bush looked into Putin’s eyes and “saw his soul.” Right. We were welcomed into Iraq as liberators by crowds bearing flowers. Right. Really, Bush is a naive provincial who has no understanding of the wider world.
The Clinton approach to the North may have been naive, but the Bush approach has been an utter failure and was arguably MORE naive.
Here is a step-by-step report on the NK nuclear-weapons program that lays it all out step by step:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/...../kim/view/
Note that McCain makes an appearance with some predictable saber-rattling. If he wins in 2008 we are all shit out of luck.
S Koreans are also talking big about their “race” and “history”, and I see much similarity with the Norks in this respect. Can they be actually happy that the Norks are able to make big nations cringe by saber-rattling? BTW, blaming Bush is all so typical- it’s obviously the Norks who had no intention to bend, and frankly, the US had no other choice but to cut off relations. Don’t mix up the time-line of events.
If it seems a bit strange that both the US and ROK governments appear to be unflapped by the Kaesong and, now, the missile firing incidents, one should consider the overall context. The DPRK’s brilliant tactics, as I have often maintained, have lacked a practical long-term strategy. As a result, no matter successful Pyongyang’s tactics have been in the short term, even collectively, these maneuvers are failing as time moves on. There is what I call a “Pyongyang Fatigue” that may be settling in both Seoul and Washington.
The fact is, North Korea is weaker than ever — and while in some ways more desperate than ever, they are not in the least stupid. As such, they must be constantly reassessing their options. The North effectively has just three cards left. One is possibly trading in nuclear materials (I still have some doubts about their bomb-making abilities); two, lobbing a missile or two into S Korea, Japan and/or possibly Guam; and three, making good on the threat to turn Seoul into a sea of flames.
All three would invite an air attack that would obliterate Pyongyang and other surviving islands of infrastructure. And there would be no overwhelming need to for the US and S Korea to occupy North Korea, as was the case in Iraq. One option would be to let the surviving DPRK government deal on its own the aftermath of such a response.
(Part of the DPRK defense preparations is premised on making occuption of the otherwise defeated country to be untenable. The weakness to this strategy is that there may be no interest for another power to occupy a post-war N Korea, which would essentially be a hell hole. And no doubt the North Koreans have game played that option among many others.)
But for now, and most certainly between now and the April National Assembly elections, we may expect to see more of the same, which is the North Koreans’ way of saying, “Hey! Look over here, dammit! We are still important!” and perhaps also a way for Pyongyang to attempt to create uncertainty and doubt in President MB Lee’s foreign policy.
Still, firing off a few test missiles and kicking out a few S Korean bureaucrats no longer seem to constitute a tipping point that could merit a major response from Seoul or Washington. And I really doubt the North Koreans are so foolish to push things beyond what would be a genuine tipping point. At least, not for the foreseeable future.
“Invasion ensues. SK girly-boys give up immediately. Seoul is renamed KJI City, as Hanoi was similarly renamed. Japan goes nuclear, and nothing much else changes.”
One problem: South Korea is probably an undeclared nuclear power and has non-conventional weapons aimed at every thing worthy of being targeted in North Korea (and Kim Jong Il knows it). Why would South Korea buy cruise missiles if it wasn’t planning on loading them with what they were designed to carry?
More problem than that — NK/KJI have no Air Force worth a damn. If invasion ensues, NK would lose just slightly less than immediately, no matter what one thinks of SK soldiers. KJI surely knows this.
Can’t the CIA just send Kim Jong-il a couple of Swedish “models” with booby-trapped coochies?
Tom thanks again for the salient analysis. I agree with most of your comments, but don’t think the US or another power would obliterate Pyongyang over a nuclear weapons sale or trade; the fear of North Korean retaliation against Seoul must be too great, and that retaliation may well be built into DPRK standard operating procedure in the event of an assault on the North.
An assault on Seoul would be dramatically worse a catastrophe than, say, a coup in Pakistan, and yet fears of shaking things up there were enough that the US did just about nothing in response to Dr Khan’s nuclear trespasses….
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[...] what they do best: cutting off their own noses. I don’t need to add much more here to what Robert Koehler has already said, but I will note that Kaesong had already started to have unintended social consequences that the [...]