An assault on Seoul would be dramatically worse a catastrophe than, say, a coup in Pakistan, and yet fears of shaking things up there were enough that the US did just about nothing in response to Dr Khan’s nuclear trespasses….

One problem: South Korea is probably an undeclared nuclear power and has non-conventional weapons aimed at every thing worthy of being targeted in North Korea (and Kim Jong Il knows it). Why would South Korea buy cruise missiles if it wasn’t planning on loading them with what they were designed to carry?

The fact is, North Korea is weaker than ever — and while in some ways more desperate than ever, they are not in the least stupid. As such, they must be constantly reassessing their options. The North effectively has just three cards left. One is possibly trading in nuclear materials (I still have some doubts about their bomb-making abilities); two, lobbing a missile or two into S Korea, Japan and/or possibly Guam; and three, making good on the threat to turn Seoul into a sea of flames.

All three would invite an air attack that would obliterate Pyongyang and other surviving islands of infrastructure. And there would be no overwhelming need to for the US and S Korea to occupy North Korea, as was the case in Iraq. One option would be to let the surviving DPRK government deal on its own the aftermath of such a response.

(Part of the DPRK defense preparations is premised on making occuption of the otherwise defeated country to be untenable. The weakness to this strategy is that there may be no interest for another power to occupy a post-war N Korea, which would essentially be a hell hole. And no doubt the North Koreans have game played that option among many others.)

But for now, and most certainly between now and the April National Assembly elections, we may expect to see more of the same, which is the North Koreans’ way of saying, “Hey! Look over here, dammit! We are still important!” and perhaps also a way for Pyongyang to attempt to create uncertainty and doubt in President MB Lee’s foreign policy.

Still, firing off a few test missiles and kicking out a few S Korean bureaucrats no longer seem to constitute a tipping point that could merit a major response from Seoul or Washington. And I really doubt the North Koreans are so foolish to push things beyond what would be a genuine tipping point. At least, not for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps, perhaps not, but there are degrees of naivety. Conservatives often dismiss liberals as hopelessly naive, but history proves that it is the neocons who have been hopelessly naive over the past 7 years. Bush looked into Putin’s eyes and “saw his soul.” Right. We were welcomed into Iraq as liberators by crowds bearing flowers. Right. Really, Bush is a naive provincial who has no understanding of the wider world.

The Clinton approach to the North may have been naive, but the Bush approach has been an utter failure and was arguably MORE naive.

Here is a step-by-step report on the NK nuclear-weapons program that lays it all out step by step:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/...../kim/view/

Note that McCain makes an appearance with some predictable saber-rattling. If he wins in 2008 we are all shit out of luck.

I’ve been interested in this thread (#28 saxif — well said, and #32, el canguro — well said as well — even if it’s old and decrepit, it’s still not wise to corner a wolverine). Calling KJI’s bluff may mean a confrontation with a starving army; it may lead to some kind of an “I’m gonna starve an entire province to death, just because fuck you” maneuver, it may lead to two million starving refugees trying to cross the DMZ minefields on foot and swamping the Chinese border. . . but it’ll probably just lead to more NK dependence on China, giving them even MORE leverage on the Korean peninsula. Unless I’m wrong (it’s happened before), China won’t let NK collapse completely until it suits them. They’re too good a distraction from China’s own agenda.

It’ll be interesting how things play out over here, especially given a possible slowdown in the US Economy, which will only give China even MORE leverage than they had before, and might embolden them, at the same time as the food shortage in NK is finally reaching the capital. When a leader is willing to hold his own population hostage, using starvation as a political weapon, there’s just no telling what might happen next. Kim Jong’s illin’ knows no bounds, and let’s not forget that there’s no guarantee his successor will be any less nuts, given that he’ll have been raised and groomed in his own father and grandfather’s personality cult.

Yeah, it’s kind of like a dude caught in a chokehold croaking, “You best step off before I get mad!” but then, that dude might yet have a knife in his pocket, and could yet mess some shit up before he passes out.

Not that I know what SHOULD be done, but boy, it’s a mess up there.

That will never, never happen. Nukes in NK will always be kept, secretly, no matter what enthusiastic pronouncements naive western govts make.

If the above is accepted, then it can be argued that under the Clinton admin, NK got almost completed light water reactors, while under the the Bush admin (which I despise) they got those reactors cancelled.

Insanely, the US continues to pump food in, no matter what admin. NK is now the largest recipient of US aid in Asia, and has been for 5 years. I call it, an dno doubt cannier Asian countries concur, The Retarded Behemoth….