So just read the news about Korea trade deficets and think about the impact of the Iraq war on the US economy and the Bush freefall mentality of the US dollar. It is a strong bet the democrats will win the upcoming election and an Iraq pullout will happen but not overnight. This war has drained US resources and the american economy as a whole.

I have seen Korean experts say the won was going to be ~800 to 1 USD last year and look at it now. The Korean economy is to irrational to predict but IMF would be a good case study to find leading indicators. Korea is the only country in the world that beleives in FAN DEATH so you need to understand all the data int he world still can be bent till it meets your criteria.

Oil prices are going up, the dollar wlll be stronger come the next election, and the Korean economy isnt doing that well. My gut tells me their sub-prime/bad loans havent been exposed.

1200 by summer, 1300+ if Obama wins, 1000 if McCain wins as he thinks Iraq is 10 more years of work. Stay the course…ya rite.

Logic doesnt apply in an emotionally based society.

I’d like to buy a nice piece of land in the Philippines, but real estate prices have not yet declined there, and their Peso is currently quite strong against the dollar, opposite from us — so does not yet seen to be a good time to buy. They have endless serious political crisis going on already, but that hasn’t crashed the economy. Will it crash at all, and for that matter will Korea’s? We just have to wait and see…

There’s broad agreement that worse is on the horizon. I’m also into accumulating cash, which for me means leaning on delinquent customers to pay up, cuz like your friend, I’m hoping to time my buy-in for what I hopefully guess correctly to be the “bottom”.

That said, if there’s an asset you want to buy, like a piece of tropical land, then it’s a good idea to sign that contract when prices have collapsed and inflation is about to start eating away at cash. Maybe you’d be better off buying a ticket to your chosen retirement destination to do some shopping.

Glad I’m not as near retirement just yet. Stressful time to be making big decisions.

There’s a friend of mine back in the states who is very well-versed in economics and financial history, studied it hard for years so that i do have to respect his opinion… And he warns me in private letters that this current crap is still going to get much worse, for most all of us around the world. He strongly recommends being conservative with spending now, make sure you have plenty of reserve saved in a liquid way, don’t trust the markets, and hyper-inflation hedges like gold are still a very good idea for investments right now… Dunno if things are going to get that much worse, myself, but with the heavy uncertainty among all the experts and continuing bad news coming in, it does seem that being financially cautious would be quite prudent now.

We shall see…

S Korean won bolstered by intervention
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8812.....07658.html

South Korean Won Climbs After Fed Reduces Rate; Bonds Decline
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home

No worries mate, I heard she’s moved to the XXXXXX Bar in Itaewon!!!! No need to go all the way to Portugal.

What I’m getting at is the incredible weakness of the USD which is what gives the illusion that the euro is so strong. It’s like it almost doesn’t make sense comparing euro to the USD, because USD is being treated like it’s toilet paper. I have a sneaking suspicion that if you chart the increase in commodity prices in euro terms that you will get a kind of back of the envelope picture of real demand growth related price increases, as opposed to charting commodities in USD, where a lot o the gain is just dollar weakness. But Bernanke seems to have entirely capitulated and given in to a dead dollar policy.

The yen’s been in a low-to-no-interest, funding currency, super-cheap environment, so it’s not a great indicator. The Chinese have forced their yuan to be super cheap. It’s like a race to the bottom. The only real currencies left seem to be the Europeans, Singapore dollar, HK dollar I bet is generally strong…

Here’s my little take on the won’s recent fall and a few questions. (I largely agree with Brendon, except I wouldn’t call the European currencies “freakishly strong,” I’d call them normal…) On to the won.

Really? You’d call them “normal”?

If so, the cost of living in Europe is astonishingly dear — I visited Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Austria during the period when the Euro was trading at $0.85-1.10 and found that daily living costs (run to the supermarket, etc.) and the cost of housing still felt expensive in dollar terms.

Eighty-five cents to the Euro and a Big Mac, fries and a Coke in Austria still cost five bucks.

At $1.60, unless the cost of essentials somehow drops because Europe imports from the US, it would be freakishly expensive.

I’ll find out soon enough: Got a trip coming up in June.