Asia Times Double Feature

by Robert Koehler on February 22, 2008

in China, North Korea, ROK-US Issues

Andrei Lankov has penned a VERY interesting piece in the Asia Times on possible Chinese intervention in North Korea and what it means for everyone involved. It’s a long piece, but well worth the read. Here’s just a snippet:

These days everybody who thinks about the fate of North Korean has to consider the Chinese takeover as a possibility to be taken seriously. In most cases it is seen as a disaster, but is it really that bad?

One should not welcome such a turn of events, of course. However, Chinese intervention, while not being the best available solution, might still open ways for hope – at least in comparison with the present-day gloomy and explosive situation. To start with, the world probably will be unable and/or willing to do much anyway. If a pro-Chinese coup is staged in Pyongyang, the world will face a fait accompli, so all protests will be useless (and easily deniable).

If a chaos erupts in North Korea, the outside world might indeed welcome (and even actively encourage) Chinese involvement. North Korea probably has five to 10 crude nuclear devices, plus a large stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium and a substantial amount of chemical weapons. Internal chaos might produce a refugee crisis on a scale East Asia has not seen since the 1940s. Both are good reasons why dangerous chaos would have be stopped, by force if necessary, but neither US nor South Korea seem well-prepared for this task.

Read the rest on your own.

In the other good read, Don Kirk suggests outgoing USFK commander Gen. B.B. Bell might have met an early demise over his insistence on carrying out the transfer of operational command to the ROK military. Again, read the piece on your own — here’s just something to get your started:

Bell has been so adamant about following through on the plan that it upset South Korean generals who concluded they could not get along. Bell, leaving after two years in command in Korea, has seen his primary task as carrying out a decision signed on by both governments – one that the US had resisted, that the outgoing government in Seoul sees as intrinsic to sovereignty and that the incoming government believes will compromise defenses against North Korea.

Adding to the irony, US military analysts appreciate the concerns of South Korean defense officials while acknowledging that Bell has been caught in a vice between conflicting outlooks and policies in Washington and Seoul. “As long as there’s a North Korean threat, there should be a CFC,” said Bruce Bechtol, a former intelligence officer with the Defense Intelligence Agency who has served several tours in South Korea and now is a professor at the Marine Corps University at this historic base on the Potomac River south of Washington. “They should not dismantle CFC until there’s no more North Korean threat.”

One thing is for certain — there’s clearly been a lot of nonsense going on at this end with stuff being leaked to the press, only to be officially denied (by USFK) later.

(HT to reader)

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Dr. Lankov: Chinese Intervention Not So Bad « North Korea Monitor
February 23, 2008 at 11:12 pm

{ 55 comments… read them below or add one }

1 joe February 22, 2008 at 7:37 pm

Hm, what the world doesn’t understand is the Korean identity. I assure you if China invaded the North Koreans would fight China. In any event the US and S.K. would intervene.

The article is nothing but communist propaganda to bring moral support to Chinese intervention in N.K.

2 pawikirogi February 22, 2008 at 8:26 pm

‘The article is nothing but communist propaganda to bring moral support to Chinese intervention in N.K.’

i’ve grown suspicious of dr lankov after seeing yet another piece in which he seems to promote the idea of a chinese invasion into north korea. add to that, the fact his articles usually lack any kind of balance. for instance, while he often informs us of his discussions with chinese officials on their drawing up plans to take nk, there’s almost no discussion on how south korean officials might repsond to such an intervention. in other words, he doesn’t seem interested in what koreans have to say about this. why is that?

in my opinion, dr lankov is emboldening the chinese by portraying any invasion into north korea as a book already written, where china can do whatever it pleases without having to worry about korean reaction. again, where’s the balance? where’s his discussions on how koreans might respond?

indeed, about the only thing he says about koreans who might object, is to label any such korean as a nationalist. in other words, he simply dismisses any korean who might have problems with the idea of china taking what is traditionally korea’s.

why is that?

i’m suspicious of this man.

3 globalvillageidiot February 22, 2008 at 9:13 pm

“i’ve grown suspicious of dr lankov after seeing yet another piece in which he seems to promote the idea of a chinese invasion into north korea.”

Lankov knows his shit when it comes to North Korea. You don’t. I don’t think a Chinese takeover is a scenario he welcomes, so much as something he thinks has a good chance of happening.

4 slim February 22, 2008 at 9:17 pm

You guys simply have to read more carefully, and understand the difference between analysis and advocacy. You’re not doing that here.

5 globalvillageidiot February 22, 2008 at 9:53 pm

“You guys simply have to read more carefully, and understand the difference between analysis and advocacy. You’re not doing that here.”

Exactly.

6 boshintang February 23, 2008 at 12:09 am

“You guys simply have to read more carefully, and understand the difference between analysis and advocacy. You’re not doing that here.”

That’s ridiculous, why would I need to understand the diligence of Americans in advertising?

7 parker February 23, 2008 at 12:12 am

Does anyone have links to any Korean language information on the China will take charge of a failed North Korea scenario?

Whenever I talk to South Koreans about it they pull the Korean identity argument, as Joe did, and deny that it could ever happen. If China did indeed try to exert its influence in a Kim Jeong Il absent North I doubt the South could do much to stop it and I’m pretty sure that the US wouldn’t want to stir up any trouble. (The US is not in the same position it was 12 years ago when Clinton sent warships to the Taiwan Straight.) I’m not saying it will happen for sure but I see it as probable and it bugs the crap out of me that Koreans simply blow off the notion.

8 dda February 23, 2008 at 12:23 am

I assure you if China invaded the North Koreans would fight China.

Like they did in 1950?

9 Sonagi February 23, 2008 at 1:04 am

There’s not too much public chatter about future North Korean scenarios. The little “baekdusan uriddang” stunt pulled by the Korean speedskaters prompted discussions about Korean nationalist claims to Gando. Chinese maps showing that Baeksunsan lay firmly in Chinese territory for most of the last 1,000 years circulated on the internet, and a history forum at one Chinese university debated the question of whether Korea could take Gando. The consensus was that any clash between Korea and China would result in the border being redrawn in China’s favor.

10 setnaffa February 23, 2008 at 1:35 am

Koguryo, redux?

11 Zonath February 23, 2008 at 1:59 am

One thing I love about these ‘China could end up with North Korea’ threads is that they always display so much regard for the territory, and so little regard for the people. Better the Norks be slaughtered by one of their own than allow their precious ’sovereignty’ to be abrogated, eh?

12 slim February 23, 2008 at 2:16 am

Well put, Zonath. The status quo under the Kim Family Regime has been harder on the well-being of the average North Korean than practically any scenario Beijing could dream up.

We must let Dr Lankov weigh in as needed on his conversations with South Koreans about the Chinese contingency. At the very least, his work should wake Seoul out of its decade-long self-deceptive dream about the viability of the DPRK.

But three things strike me when I hear talk of South Korea fighting off China over North Korea:
1. The ROK army hasn’t seen live action since May 1980.
2. The Kim Dae-jung and especially the Roh Moo-hyun era was not only corrosive to USFK-ROK solidarity, it was also demoralizing for the ROK military.
3. I do not believe the US treaty obligation to defend the ROK against attack extends to the DPRK.

13 Sonagi February 23, 2008 at 2:27 am

There’s not too much public chatter about future North Korean scenarios. = There’s not too much public chatter in China

14 Netizen Kim February 23, 2008 at 4:02 am

By “Chinese takeover”, I will presume this means outright absorption of NK territory into China proper and the loss of NK sovereignty. If it happens, there are consequences.

It may be a severe blow to the credibility of China’s Non-Interference Policy in her dealings with the African nations. Increasingly, Africans are suspiciously wondering if China’s growing economic footprint there is some kind of a repeat of Western imperialism. China goes out of her way to reassure them that as a fellow member of the developing world and having been colonized also in the past, that this is not the case.

Of course, it may also lead to a deterioration of relations between SK and China. S Korea may even go as far as to support Taiwan independence.

Managing a post-collapse NK will be a big headache in itself for any power, including China. Outright takeover opens up a new can of worms.

15 Netizen Kim February 23, 2008 at 5:15 am

Also, if and when NK should normalize relations with the US and adopt a market economy, one of the first things that should happen is the USBEP should outsource the manufacture of US bills to the Norks since they seem demonstrably much more skilled at it than the Americans. Higher quality at a lower cost.

This will also help foster good relations and peace, in accordance with Thomas Friedman’s “Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention”.

16 cydevil February 23, 2008 at 8:04 am

Lankov is just plain wrong if he assumes that Koreans would tolerate Chinese occupation of North Korea for the sake of evading the responibility of reunification. The possibility that China may attempt to move in with troops has incensed the Korean public, so why assume that Koreans will standby while that happens?

Then of course, South Korea will have to prepare for such scenario meticulously, and one of the most important elements in that prepraration is strengthening military and strategic ties with the United States, and I dare say, Japan. Improved relations with Russia is, I believe, also important.

With change of leadership, hopefully, such preparations will take its due course after five years of hiatus.

17 mjw February 23, 2008 at 9:10 am

nice to see don kirk still getting it done. should have a separate post to discuss that article.

18 Mizar5 February 23, 2008 at 11:04 am

“Lankov is just plain wrong if he assumes that Koreans would tolerate Chinese occupation of North Korea for the sake of evading the responibility of reunification. The possibility that China may attempt to move in with troops has incensed the Korean public, so why assume that Koreans will standby while that happens?”

Why not assume it? It is the more logical assumption given the following. First, there is the precedent of Tibet, where not a single nation stood up to China, and China subsequently absorbed Tibet. Second, Korea has not historically displayed the will to stand up to China; it has ceded an area of land even larger than NK to China in the past. Third, even the US backed down the last time the Chinese human waves poured across the NK border. Fourth, Korean society has gotten soft, largely suffers from widespread anti-military Pacificism and denial where NK is concerned.

Nationalistic sentiment aside, this is the most logical presumption.
The assumption that South Koreans would stand up to China, and that the US would support them is not only unsupportable but highly improbable. The most likely scenario by far is that both SK and the US will quickly back down, despite some muted protests.

“Then of course, South Korea will have to prepare for such scenario meticulously. With change of leadership, hopefully, such preparations will take its due course after five years of hiatus.”

The key word here is “hopefully” and such a change of leadership is highly conjectural. It would take a quite dramatic cultural change for Korea to refocusing on China as a threat instead of Japan. Of course the feeling of enmity with Japan is really quite illogical but given the extend of this kind of illogic it is doubtful that such a paradigm shift can occur.

No, the more logical presumption is that neither Korea nor the will prepared to face such a challange. If China makes a move on NK, they will most likely prevail unchallanged.

Finally, considering the oppression N Koreans are already enduring, there is little reason to believe that they themselves would present an effective resistance. There is also little reason to presume that China would refrain from completely crushing all such opposition. Before long, NK would be Sinized, just as Tibet was.

19 T James February 23, 2008 at 12:57 pm

People tend to forget history.

North Korea today is in the same condition as Korea was during the Ming / Qing Dynasty period.

More recently, North Korea is in the same condition as Tibet before the official Chinese invasion.

Pre-20th Century Korea was a conquered slave state to the Chinese Empire. A Chinese army was stationed on the Korean Peninsula. Politically, the Koreans had as much independence as the Chinese would allow. The Korean rulers could not do anything to offend their “Chinese” hosts.

People have to realize, nothing really changes in China. One dynasty follows another. The present Communist realm [dynasty] in China is simply following the standard practices of the Ming and Qing toward the Korean peninsula.

Those who say that the Koreans would not tolerate the Chinese army invading Korea, must ask themselves the following question. Why did the Korean willingly allow the Ming and Qing armies to station themselves inside “independent” Korea pre-20th Century?

I believe this…

The Chinese want the status-quo. China knows that a united free Korea, not under their control, will begin the march to expand Northward toward so-called Ancient Homelands.

As long as the Koreans continue to blame Japan for all their woes, the Korean peninsula shall remain divided. This is the one of the greatest of China’s propaganda victories against any people.

Koreans need to see who is “really’ keeping the Peninsula divided. It is not Japan. It is not the United States. Only then, perhaps, the Korean people might have the will to stand up and be the great race the netizens claim.

20 R. Elgin February 23, 2008 at 1:05 pm

Mizar, my gut feeling is that if something like you mentioned were to come about, Koreans everywhere would wake up and they are no Tibetians either.

21 joe February 23, 2008 at 1:23 pm

@12
China hasn’t seen live action in a while. Most of the world hasn’t.

Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun are liberals. They’re fucking faggots that have sunshine and rainbows policies. They were also very friendly to China and N.K.

South Korea’s interests are in US’s interests. What China wants to do is pull N.K. from the potential sphere of US/SK influence to their own. This isn’t going to happen, China is fucking dreaming.

We have alot of chinks on this website, who are completely delusional. US joined in the Korean war for one reason, to pull Korea into their sphere of influence. This notion that US wont care is just about the dumbest thing i’ve ever heard. Its more of a Chinese dream of “we hope the US wont care”.

The last thing China wants is war with the US and possibly Korea and Japan.

This is a continuation of the cold war except instead of Russia its China now. Nothing’s changed and I’m sure the free world will win.

The notion that S.K. is incapable of helping N.K. is preposterous. China itself is a 3rd world country, still has massive problems and 90% of the country are in poverty.

All you chinks need to shut the fuck up. Thats including the ones hiding behind the American flag.

22 T James February 23, 2008 at 1:42 pm

What most of you do not understand is …

North Korea is already under the same condition as Tibet was from 1950 – 1959. The Chinese are in control. The present ruler of North Korea has limited power and control.

Interestingly, the Chinese tried the same historical vassal routine with Vietnam has it has successfully done with Tibet and Northern Korean Peninsula. Any of you remember the Chinese / Vietnamese war of 1980? The Chinese army invaded when its’ historical southern vassal did bad bad things against the Great Chinese Will.
The Vietnamese kicked the Chinese butt.

Now, the Vietnamese people and the West have a much different relationship. One can only hope one day, the Korean race will stop bending over to the Chinese and do what the Vietnamese did.

23 Sonagi February 23, 2008 at 1:54 pm

A homophobic and a repeated ethnic slur in one post. Color me impressed, Joe. There’s only one regular ethnic Chinese commenter that I know of, and he hasn’t posted on this thread.

24 joe February 23, 2008 at 2:11 pm

Sonagi why dont you stop hiding.

25 slim February 23, 2008 at 2:13 pm

The possibility of Chinese intervention should at the very least prompt a rethink of South Korean policy toward the North, beginning on Monday.

26 Sonagi February 23, 2008 at 2:26 pm

Were you calling ME a chink, Joe? I’ve endured a lot of nasty insults in my life, but this is the first time I’ve ever been called a Chink. Since I know Chinese, I obviously must be one. It’s not like white people could ever actually learn Asian languages or anything.

27 joe February 23, 2008 at 2:27 pm

they are awake. The god damn liberals were pro-chinese but atleast they are gone.

28 slim February 23, 2008 at 2:37 pm

I think the preferred nomenclature, Joe, is Asian American.

29 Zonath February 23, 2008 at 2:55 pm

This notion that US wont care is just about the dumbest thing i’ve ever heard.

Uh huh… so assuming this NK invasion came a couple years from now, we’re either dealing with an administration that’s still in Iraq and likely strapped for people and cash, or else an administration that built up a campaign around pulling the troops out of Iraq. So sure, I daresay that the US would step up if SOUTH Korea was being attacked, but North Korea? So the Republicans would attack China over a country labeled by the Bush Administration as part of the ‘Axis of Evil’, or the Democrats would start another war right after they pulled the troops out of another — for a country that just about everyone in the world would like to see disappear from said world? Yeah… that’s going to happen.

30 joe February 23, 2008 at 3:07 pm

Dont lie you little coward. Your the first American who’s gone nuts because of a racial slur of another race. Do you see white folks going crazy over the n word?

31 joe February 23, 2008 at 3:11 pm

@Zonath good one. I remember the UN/US/SK fighting over North Korea back in the middle of the 20th century.

And tell me why the US would not want a valuable ally to grow stronger? Korea according to Goldman Sachs will have the 2nd highest GDP in 30 years.

Sorry but reek of chink.

32 Zonath February 23, 2008 at 3:30 pm

And tell me why the US would not want a valuable ally to grow stronger?

But the absorption of North Korea would cause SK to grow dramatically weaker. Sorry, but reek of retard.

33 Railwaycharm February 23, 2008 at 3:49 pm

#26. Sonagi,You have Joe all wrong! Chink = Chinese Hiding In North Korea.

34 lankov February 23, 2008 at 6:15 pm

Dear Joe,

You said “The article is nothing but communist propaganda to bring moral support to Chinese intervention in N.K.”

Thank you, it was really funny. Why? Because two days ago a Russian bloger “politproisvet” described me as a “notorious pro-American bourgeois propaganda-monger” (FYI, you can see this statement at: http://politprosvet.livejournal.com/9092.html) I love it! When you here barking from both sides, it is encouraging. Probably an indication of a ballanced stance, I’d say…

If you are interested not only in mud throwing, but also in what I personally consider best solution, you are welcome to see http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/IK15Dg01.html

Alas, in spite of few exceptions, I do not see much political will (or even simple interest) in NK issues in South Korean society. And without this, no amount of chest-beating will help.

All the best,

yours Communist-bourgeois pro-American-pro-Chinese propaganda-monger

AL

35 dogbert February 23, 2008 at 8:08 pm

i’ve grown suspicious of dr lankov after seeing yet another piece in which he seems to promote the idea of a chinese invasion into north korea. add to that, the fact his articles usually lack any kind of balance.

i’m suspicious of this man.

That’s because you’re only reading him in English.

As Prof. Ланъков implies, it might be helpful to read his Russian writings as well.

36 soondae February 23, 2008 at 9:52 pm

22 – Any of you remember the Chinese / Vietnamese war of 1980? The Chinese army invaded when its’ historical southern vassal did bad bad things against the Great Chinese Will. The Vietnamese kicked the Chinese butt.

And the PLA learned their lesson well, and have since invested many billions in modernizing their forces so it does not happen again.

37 R. Elgin February 23, 2008 at 11:29 pm

Lankov got me laughing with his post. He is so naughty. :o )

38 Jing February 24, 2008 at 3:11 am

Correct me if I’m mistaken, but isn’t Joe just “Korean-Canadian” under a different handle? Not many posters here have French IP’s and the tone and rhetoric of the two posters lead me to conclude that they are one and the same.

39 pawikirogi February 24, 2008 at 5:45 am

‘As Prof. Ланъков implies, it might be helpful to read his Russian writings as well.’ dogbert

are you trying to show off, dog? or did you think there was a good chance i could read russian letters(which i can)?

don’t care about his russian writings since russian is a minor language that few outside of russia speak. i’ll stick to his english shit which surely is propaganda for the chinese.

‘Alas, in spite of few exceptions, I do not see much political will (or even simple interest) in NK issues in South Korean society. And without this, no amount of chest-beating will help.’ lankov

and by that, is the prof saying that there is quite a bit of interest amongst the comman folk in china re nk? again, dr lankov doesn’t tell us about his discussions with south korean officials. perhaps, this is all about access. perhaps the good dr has access to the tiananmen government while having almost no access to the democratic government of korea. perhaps that’s why.

lastly, any person who concludes that south koreans don’t care about the north because they don’t talk about it, doesn’t know what he’s talking about. there’s no chest thumping here. if china invades the north, there will be war in ne asia, home of some of the largest economies on planet earth.

no chest thumping, just the truth.

40 wjk, 검은 머리 외국인 February 24, 2008 at 5:57 am

actually, most of the Busan people I talk to say,

Honestly they see no NEED for unification.

Maybe it’s just that area.

41 wjk, 검은 머리 외국인 February 24, 2008 at 6:06 am

it is rational thought, though.

42 bbundaegi February 24, 2008 at 7:16 am

It’s very interesting that the Korean-Kyopos who always complain that there is so much racism and bigotry against Koreans are the same ones who spew intelligent and high-class displays of their behavior around such as screaming such nice words like “chink”, “jap”, “whitey” all over the place with impunity. However, when a single person utters back “shut up, gook”, they go completely apeshit and say, “Look how racist these people are against Koreans!”

Joe, I think you need to take a hike.

43 Railwaycharm February 24, 2008 at 8:46 am

The Chinese would have a zero-sum gain by taking the Norks over. South Korea has only an emotional yearning but, the fact of the matter is the place is baggage. No one wants to take on the human and financial debt. The world should let the place implode. Shove pizza and pancakes under the door like an AIDS ward.

44 lankov February 24, 2008 at 10:15 am

Pawi expects me to reveal my contacts with South Korean officials, and tries to provoke me in divulging this information, like their names and questions we discuss, etc. Why does he need all this??? I have to think… Well, I got it!!! Pawi is a Chinese spy!!! Pawi is unmasked! So let’s be on guard when this guy is around. He is not what we think, not a merely aggressive but sometimes amusing idiot, but something far more dangerous.

45 Sonagi February 24, 2008 at 10:22 am

Pawi does read and write Chinese. His China-bashing may just be a cover.

46 andy February 24, 2008 at 10:27 am

A kyopo who supposedly reads and writes English, Korean, Chinese, and Russian. Not your average kyopo.

47 Linkd February 24, 2008 at 10:58 am

Professor, I thought your article was excellent and every conjecture plausible. I especially liked this part:

… the discontent when it arises will be channeled not against a democratically elected national government but against a regime that will be clearly a dictatorship … These opportunistic puppets will make convenient scapegoats, and this will mean that ideas of liberal democracy will not become seriously discredited. Meanwhile, the South will be seen as a land of prosperity, beacon of democracy and a truly national polity.

Long-term thinking. Eventual North-South reunification via a few decades of Chinese stewardship. Sounds pretty good to me.

48 baduk February 24, 2008 at 12:49 pm

Mizar5 knows about Korean history and Korean situation thousand times better than Lankov!

I might add NK is nothing more than a satellite of China. Just like Poland or Hungary under USSR. They had presidents and military but everybody knew they are under USSR.

Why is it so hard to realize NK is under Chinese rule?

You know what, next thing NK will do is to attack Japan. Kim is just waiting for the Chinese Commies to give him go ahead (this will come sometime after Beizing Olympics).

When NK fights Japan, SK might just stand in the side of Northern Commie brethren. Korean Unification achieved!

SK’d better educate its own people about the true nature of NK. It is a satellite of China.

49 baduk February 24, 2008 at 12:54 pm

If Kim Jongil’s regime somehow collapses (this has almost zero chance of happening, due to their worship of Kim’s family), China will just roll in. They did in 1950. Why wouldn’t they?

SK will not dare to fight the Chinese army. The US will not, either.

Chinese tanks roll in, restore order, set up a puppet(this is all Kim Jongil is) and roll back out within six months.

The world community will be mum. They all need the Chinese goods.

50 pawikirogi February 24, 2008 at 5:51 pm

‘Pawi expects me to reveal my contacts with South Korean officials, and tries to provoke me in divulging this information, like their names and questions we discuss, etc. Why does he need all this???’ lankov

were my posts addressed to you? i don’t think they were. my posts were ABOUT you not directed TOWARDS YOU. still further, i didn’t ask for your sources from the south, i asked why it seemed you spend very little time actually speaking with them. it’s apparent you speak quite a bit with chinese officials, but that’s not apparent when it comes to korean officials. that’s about the gist of my post about you, bones.

‘pawi the fool.’ lankov

not on this issue, professa. china try to take nk, there will be war. bet on it.

of course, i understand that emotion can drive people to do nutty things or SAY nutty things. what’s your opinion on the current situation in afghanistan, dr?

sonagi,

wo yi-jing gau-soo nee. jung-gwoh yu wo boo hwei shwo.

51 arthjm February 24, 2008 at 5:51 pm

While simply from a political perspective, Dr. Lankov raises an interesting and quite possible scenario, from a military perspective, I honestly am highly doubtful of the Nork generals handing over the place to the Chinese, and considering the economic status (people with the least to lose are always a bad bunch to screw around with) and nut jobs in their military, I’d say they’d at least put up as good of a fight as the Viet Minh did, not even putting the SoKo into this.

In regards to the south, while SoKo’s do bend quite a bit back to the Chinese, I’d say that if China did attempt to take the North, this is one case where the nation would face oblivion as a whole just to make a point. Something about the general temper (to the extent of insanity) I’ve seen of SoKo’s from living around them for a long time tells me so, though without this, I would dismiss it and say they’d value their current economic status more.

52 pawikirogi February 24, 2008 at 6:19 pm

‘I’d say that if China did attempt to take the North, this is one case where the nation would face oblivion as a whole just to make a point. Something about the general temper (to the extent of insanity) I’ve seen of SoKo’s from living around them for a long time tells me so, though without this, I would dismiss it and say they’d value their current economic status more.’

you got that right but there won’t be oblivion. china try to take nk, there will be war.

china will lose. in more ways than one.

53 Baltimoron February 26, 2008 at 4:31 pm

#40:

You’re right about Gyeongsang skepticism about unification, at least so far as my family, who are equal parts Gangwon and transplanted Busanites. And, at the university where I work, a GNP redoubt, anti-DPRK anti-unification opinions make me nervous.

Dr. Lankov:

Accepting that you are right with your characterization of Chinese goals and capabilities, are you ruling out a UN mandate over the DPRK guaranteed by a consortium of regional powers. Isn’t allowing Beijing to assume control of DPRK for even the most laudable humanitarian reasons an admission, that ‘might is right’? Isn’t this the dynamic that has existed on the peninsula in the Christian era, and the cause of the political upheavals? Can the US recognize China’s regional power without giving it carte blanche? Surely, the Six-Party process indicates that China is not solely responsible for the region, and ROK’s existence and prosperity shows that the peninsula is stabler when the US is engaged, not delegating powers to Japan or PRC?

I’m also curious why you don’t believe the North Koreans would not resist overt Chinese control, as opposed to a tactical surrender for short-term influence predicated in order to secure future hopes of North Korean sovereignty? Surely, North Korean elites invited Chinese and Russian help in 1950, but only to secure the peninsula. Is there any indication Kim Jong-il and his family are any less nationalistic than his father? Is there any indication that starving peasants wouldn’t just return to insurgency as in the Occupation period, since they have so little to lose? Is there any indication provincial commanders wouldn’t just take the opportunity afforded by a Chinese-led coup to declare independence as they did in the 90s?

I think your argument is a wake-up call, but to re-engage in the region in spite of Beijing.

54 joe February 27, 2008 at 4:47 pm

@Baduk, you chink.

“SK will not dare to fight the Chinese army. The US will not, either.”

“Chinese tanks roll in, restore order, set up a puppet(this is all Kim Jongil is) and roll back out within six months.”

Look the US > everyone. I assure you the Americans and the South Koreans would send China back into the ching chong dynasty.

55 Idiotism everywhere March 7, 2008 at 9:18 am

OK, i am chinese. Let me make things clear:

NOW, dear koreans. we have no interest in a sh*t poor country like Nk, which doesnt have oil, gold or raw materials. Unless NK is a korean version of Iran, which its not, no nation will want it except u.

China is more afraid of the refugees swarming into China like fleas. We dont wanna feed them, e dont wanna have them.

China does not fear Korea. U r just the pet dog of the US, China fears the dog owner, not the dog. Sorry being insulting, but i really have to wake up some potheads here.

Yes, NK is important as a puffer zone. BUT, as the economy ties with US,JP even SK, r getting tighter, especially when the US is starting to export to China and sells more&more US-made stuff there, the chance of war is heading to zero from day to day. The only reason we r keeping this regime alive is because ur own government is asking us to do so. If u think the Chinese r soooooo evil and r keeping u from ur happy unification, demand ur president to openly asking the Chinese(and SK itself) to stop supporting the NK regime. Within a year, it will collapse.

Lets see what will happen to SK then:

1. A unification with NK will cost SK 5 times more money than the unification of east and west germany. Germany is stil suffering under the burden of the unification. SK needs to have an economy 3 times stronger than germanys to handle the cost. AND since u r such a proud and fabulous race, plz dont start asking for money from countries like… the immoral USA, evil Japan, bad commis or WB.

2. As soon as the NK regim collaps, millions of hungry refugees will swarm into SK. Get prepared to feed them. They r not properly educated for ur economy. It means u will have to pay them monetary support for a loooong time. Dont be too surprised when ur government announces it will cut ur pension, reduce the gerneral social leisure for all Koreans. Best of all, u will have to pay more Social Security payroll taxes and more taxes in general. And as u r proud and fabulous ppl, i am sure u r willing to share ur pension/health fonds with ppl who never contributed anything to it. Why should ur brother NK suffer when u can live with half of ur pensions anyway.

3. NK has stashed lots of chemical weapons + nukes. It will cost u some million bugs to destroy them. BELIEVE me, u will have to destroy them. cos neither Japan/US nor Russia/China want u to have nukes, especially not “made in NK” ones.

4. After SK has managed all those problems within a month, we chinese have to get very worried. As we all know, a united Korea is a very powerful nation with a deadly military as powerful as the US. As China is obviously a militarily weak nation, we have to worry about Koreans invading China. With NK in the back, SK will not fear to kick Chinas ass. China being a nuclear power, having an army outfigure the entire population of SK+Nk r no excuses! SK is proud and fabulous, it will take back its ancient homeland they lost 2000 years ago. It must liberate the Koreans from the evil chinese, even if the Koreans there only make up to 5% of the population living there.

BYE.

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