I think what will happen is that Beijing will use the force of its authority to shut these down, Chinese factories will comply due to force and national pride and just suck up the 4% loss of annual output.

I bet the overall pollution will stay the same as factories outside of Beijing will be made to pickup the slack.

Now Beijing is also going to try to manipulate air quality. For months, scientists have treated the city like a laboratory, testing wind patterns and atmospheric structure, while pinpointing local and regional pollution sources. Olympics contingency plans have been approved for Beijing and surrounding provinces. Details are not public, but officials have discussed shutting down factories and restricting traffic during the Games.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12.....ref=slogin

. . . Seoul 1988, Los Angeles 1984, Moscow 1980, etc.

Jing, that is useless to talk about the 80’s now, considering that air pollution was not nearly as bad then as it is now. You are lacking any contemporary datum to make such a generalized comment.

Snippets from the Washington Post Jan 24
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....954_2.html

Recent measurements show that on some days the amount of smoke and dust particles in the air exceeds by three to 12 times the maximum deemed safe by the World Health Organization.
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“The magnitude of the pollution in Beijing is not something we know how to deal with. It’s a foreign environment. It’s like feeding an athlete poison,” said David Martin, a respiratory expert who is helping train U.S. marathoners.
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Jeremy Horgan-Kobelski, a Boulder, Colo., bicyclist who competed in the 2004 Olympics in Athens and is a contender for a spot on this year’s U.S. mountain biking team, said that when he arrived in the Chinese capital, the sky was a crystal-clear blue and he thought that concerns about pollution had been overblown. But on the day he was to race, he said, the smog was so thick “you could barely see a few city blocks” from his hotel window.

About 20 minutes into the race, Horgan-Kobelski started having trouble breathing.

“I struggled with it for a while,” he said in a phone interview. “You’re breathing as hard as you can but you feel like your muscles don’t want to work. You’re filling your lungs but you don’t know what’s going in there.”

About halfway through the roughly 30-mile race, Horgan-Kobelski said, “my body sort of shut down.” He pulled over and vomited.

It wasn’t until he got to the athletes’ lounge that he learned that he wasn’t unique. Only eight of 47 contestants in the men’s race finished; the others, including the Chinese riders, also suffered from breathing problems and dropped out.