CSIS and USIP has released a report suggesting that in the event of instability in North Korea, China might be willing to send in the troops. The report, however, is about much more than that:
This report is based on discussions with Chinese specialists on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) during a CSIS-USIP delegation visit to Beijing, Changchun, and Yanji, June 25-30, 2007. Topics discussed included trends in North Korea’s economy and prospects for reform; current trends in Sino-DPRK economic relations; China’s policy toward North Korea in the wake of the nuclear test; Chinese debates on North Korea; Chinese assessments of North Korea’s political stability; and potential Chinese responses to instability.
The part that got people’s attention, however:
In the event of instability in North Korea, China’s main priority will be to prevent a flood of refugees by assuring supplies of food and strengthening border controls. PLA officers maintain that they would attempt to close the border, but admit a lack of confidence that they could do so successfully, since the border extends 866 miles and can be easily penetrated. If deemed necessary, PLA troops would be dispatched into North Korea. China’s strong preference is to receive formal authorization and coordinate closely with the UN in such an endeavor. However, if the international community did not react in a timely manner as the internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability. According to PLA researchers, contingency plans are in place for the PLA to perform three possible missions in the DPRK. These include: 1) humanitarian missions such as assisting refugees or providing help after a natural disaster; 2) peacekeeping or “order keeping” missions such as serving as civil police; and 3) “environmental control” measures to clean up nuclear contamination resulting from a strike on North Korean nuclear facilities near the Sino-DPRK border and to secure nuclear weapons and fissile materials.
Don’t think Beijing will be getting into the regime change business anytime soon, though. One Chinese expert told the team, “We don’t care who is in power as long as stability is maintained.”
Anyway, assuming for a moment that South Korea, too, has contingency plans to dispatch ROK troops to the North in the event of serious instability, the situation could get very interesting very quickly.
45 Comments
“We don’t care who is in power as long as stability is maintained.”
In other words, “We’ll cut off our supply of cheap goods to anyone who causes trouble along our borders and ruin their economy in the process.”
poor north koreans… nobody seems to care about them as long as they are suffering within nk border
After the Chinese restore order and finish humanitarian aid, do you think they’ll just hand over north Korea to South Korea and US?
cm, do u think sk want nk back? i dont think south koreans truely want tong il unless nk’s economy and living stardard is equal to sk. i think many koreans would would rather have gando than nk.
“We don’t care who is in power as long as stability is maintained.”
Chinese concerns for stability in NK just go to show that they would not accept collapse and absorption, which is what Dr. Lankov and so many here seem to assume as inevitable. Any post Kim leadership in NK is likely to come from the Worker’s Party or military, and thus will want to preserve NK’s sovereignty, with China’s backing.
China would have a nasty insurgency on its hands if it tried to “keep” NK — some norks would welcome them for the aid and stability, but plenty of (armed) ones would resist… It would be bloody and unsustainable.
Sanshinseon - you seem to be assuming an armed opposition in NK seeking to align with the South - that’s a bit of a stretch, in my estimation, considering the extreme centralization of power in NK, and total lack of any measure of autonomous civil society.
A munchkin insurgency! They’d have to recalibrate their rifle sites to have a chance of hitting the little critters.
http://www.docuverse.com/blog/.....difference
#7,
I don’t see armed resistance to the Chinese as necessarily being connected to wanting to align with Seoul.
All I can say is it’s coming, so we best anticipate the consequences. All of the elements are in place now for an impending collapse in Pyongyang.
bbc news seems to say China wants to “secure” North Korean nukes.
China is already exchanging “not enough aid” for decades of rights to North Korean natural resources, such as metals like tungsten.
Like I said, SK and NK future should be something on the order of SK outsourcing manufacturing jobs to NK, with 2 countries remaining separate until those jobs “aren’t good enough” for NK residents, who may eventually ask
“where’s my healthcare?”
“where’s my pension?”
“where’s my raise, a “livable wage” over-matching inflation?”
Wal-Mart seems to hire people who couldn’t really get a job elsewhere to greet people at the door and check receipts at the exit.
Just a random thought that may or may not connect.
I don’t like China.
Rather shake hands with Japan.
take an objective look at Chinese Imperialism.
it looks similar, and if not worser than Russian Imperialism.
North Korea, Indo China, etc.
outsourcing to NK would make no sense, however, if
SK paid NK
1/ to simply keep the factories running in NK.
2/ NK converts SK money to bullets, bombs, military rations, instead of towards its economy.
The solution is simple.
For the love of Korean kind, kill Kim Jong Il !
Object! I object! Have said and written, a number of times, in at least three languages that a) “collapse and absorption” is very likely; b) however, both can be prevented by the Chinese if they decide to do so and commit enough resources. So, right now, in January 2008, two scenarios look likely: either eventual collapse followed by German-style unification OR emergence of some pro-Chinese regime which will undertake some reforms. Of course, there might be hybrid varieties, like a collapse followed by chaos and Chinese intervention or a Chinese-installed government loosing control and collapsing. But again: over last three years I keep saying that collapse is likely, but there is a force which is perhaps capable and willign to prevent it, and this force is China. The only option I do not consider reaistic is the Blue House great dream of North Korea gradually evolving Chinese-style, but remaining stable and politically independent.
dokdoforever writes:
As Andy said in #9, there’s no automatic assumption that they would be seeking to align with the South. What i’m actually imagining (predicting) is various groups of military-trained Norks disappearing into the vast mountain areas of NK to wage bloody guerrilla warfare against the Chinese occupation troops. They would be very heavily armed, perhaps with even with even more than handheld weapons, and they would be utterly merciless and relentless. It would be a horrible situation like any other of the late 20th - early 21st Cen nationalist insurgencies against advanced foreign imperial occupations.
It might be fairly leaderless at first but they would probably come to form various distinct groups under their own leaders — and then developing different agendas. I don’t think very many of them would seeking immediate reunification with SK. Some or all of those groups, however, would probably appeal to the South for support against the Chinese forces and the pro-Chinese nork collaborators…
It would be a really awful mess. One would think that China is smarter than getting into this.
What cash? Would someone please explain how China could afford to move in on the Norks beyond 2 months without a loan from Japan and the US; and before someone says, “well they could sell their T bonds!” please talk to your broker and ask what would happen to China if they decided to liquidate 10 percent of their holdings overnight.
Well, Sanshinseon and Andrew Jackson, while anything is possible, that doesn’t strike me as very realistic. Sure, the hypothetical post-Kim NK military factions want to preserve NK sovereignty first and foremost, but, between China and SK, it’s easy to see which is a greater threat to NK sovereignty. China is happy to support any NK leader which would be independent from SK and the US, as a buffer against the American sphere of influence. China can easily secure its main interest (keeping the Americans at a distance) without having to absorb or directly run NK. Even if SK also does not actively pursue absorption, the fact of 1,300 years of a unified Korea make absorption increasingly likely the closer NK leaders get to SK. Hence, assuming NK factions or leaders want to hold onto power, they can’t get too close to the South. Since China can get what it wants without having to directly control NK, there is a natural shared interest between any NK future leader and China in preserving NK sovereignty. Think of Myanmar - China doesn’t need to absorb Myanmar in order to have favorable policies adopted there. It’s even more true in the case of NK.
Well, when few weeks ago I discussed this issue with a prominent Chinese (a very frank discussion, by the way), he asked: “Do you realize that if North Korean elite face a choice between us [=China] and South Korea, they will choose us”. I had to agree. Honestly, when I look at my crystal ball (bad quality, I know), I cannot see elements of NK armed forces fighting a guerilla war against Chinese or a Chinese-supported government, since such a government will serve the interest of the top 10% very, very well, and this “top 10%” include more or less all NK officers above the colonels level.
Mr Lankov. In the event of a regime change in North Korea what will the be the fate of these elite?
Will the enlightened people of North Korea population be content with whatever new goverment the old elite throw at them when the realize their “Jesus” was a hoax?
I think the North Korean people will be dragging out some torches and nooses when this goes down. How many former officials of other communist countries remained in charge when their governments collapsed?
to #19, highly speculative remarks.
Well, what you describe might happen, and this is definitely the worst nightmare of people who now run the country. I can quote a typical remark to this effect: “If reactionaries win, we, inhabitants of Pyongyang, all will be slaughtered” (to live in Pyongyang means to be a member of elite). This fear is one of the major reasons why the system is still going. The elite, perhaps 10%, are afraid that if the system is overthrown they will be severely persecuted and/or lynched, so they are ready to join forces with everybody, and commit any crimes, and starve to death the common folks, since they believe that their lives and lives of their children might be at stake. Had they seen some “exit option” for themselves, they would probably abandon Jucheist BS long time ago.
However, I think that their fears are exaggerated. You ask “How many former officials of other communist countries remained in charge when their governments collapsed?” Well, it depends on a country. In countries where there was an alternative elite, like East Germany and Poland, very few. In countries where such elite was weak (Russia, Ukraine) a majority of them are doing very well, thank you. In countries where such elite was absent (Central Asian Republics) you cannot find a single middle-aged official who was not a party apparatchik 20 years ago. This is a bit of sad paradox: the less repressive the Communist regime was, the less former functionaries remain in power. The reason is simple: in a country like Poland there was Church, there was large emigre community etc. So, when system collapsed, there were people who wanted to take over the vacant positions in the government, media etc. Exactly because in the Commust times government did not slaughter everybody outside the system.
However, in NK there is NO alternative elite. Hence who ever takes over (Chinese or South Koreans or Martians) they will have to use the current elite. Some people notorious and/or unlucky enough might go to prison or even get killed, but a vast majority of the NK middle-level bureaucrats will follow the route of Mr.Putin, so to say. Even if the South takes over, even if we have a genuine democratic revolution there (big if, esp. second one), there will be nobody who knows how to run the place. And too many crimes, for too long. You can persecute officials who slaughtered 5,000 innocent people, but you cannot (sorry) to persecute those who slaughtered half million. Too many criminals, too many crimes.
So their worries about retribution are exaggerated. However, they do not understand this, and keep committing crimes, just to avoid punishment which will probably never happen.
Sorry for a long reply. I can go on for many pages.
If Mr.Lankov is right, then this is bad news all around. This means that the top 10% elite and the Chinese will have to cooperate with each other to keep the charade and the same status going. That means North Korea will still be closed off from South Korea, and the western democracies. The new NK regime under the Chinese will have to make sure that the average North Koreans can’t find all those death camps and crimes against humanity to avoid a chance that there will be a violent people’s revolution.
Lankov, that’s a very cogent and interesting analysis, thank you.
I’m curious, what do you think the effect of a formal peace treaty with the US would be on the DPRK regime? I tend to think it would force ideological change and therefore create some real opportunity for reform. How does a totalitarian regime exist without an enemy?
I think anyone assuming that North Koreans would launch an insurgency against the Chinese would be mistaken. In a counter-insurgency campaign the Chinese will not play by the US rules of counter-insurgency. The Chinese will instead play by the Hama Rules of counter-insurgency:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hama_Massacre
The Hama Rules are very effective in quickly stomping out an insurgency and keeping a government in power as we continue to see in Syria.
Smart money has to be on one of Lankov’s scenarios.
‘The Chinese will instead play by the Hama Rules of counter-insurgency’
you mean the china that wants to be a respected nation? china ain’t taking any part of north korea and talking as if the chinese can do whatever they like may encourage them into a war they will not win.
regardless of what some here say about the apathy of sk youth, the koreans aren’t going to stand by and watch china try to make korea’s historical homeland into a province. ain’t gonna happen.
there will be war.
china will lose this war.
bet money on it.
lastly, one wonders if dr lankov, in his many discussions with the chinamen, ever addresses such a scenario.
Imagine Mexico were on the verge of collapse and the US thought anarchy would ensue along with a rush of five million starving Mexicans across the border. The US would make the same kind of statement — that they were prepared to send in troops to restore order and take care of refugees in the event of chaos. In fact China said they’d greatly prefer to send troops under UN auspices, which is actually better than we could expect from the Bush administration.
Come on you guys, China doesn’t have any territorial designs on North Korea. And pawikirogi, I see you still have some crack left over from yesterday! You buy in bulk, no doubt!
You guys should probably read the report itself. China talks about downgrading its relations with the North. Why would China want to ruin its economy and foment instability at home for a war over what is basically David Koresh’s cult compound? Do they want the Eighth Army on their border? Prolly not. But I’m sure the Chinese would cooperate with ROK troops, or others. I mean think about it.
I just wish the Chinese weren’t happy with a dictator in Pyongyang. Note that in the paper several Chinese experts believe that China-style reforms are inevitable. We’ll see. To me, again, the key to the whole North Korean puzzle is official ideological change.
Those poor people up there…
Just curious, but what of the prospects for a little bit of border realignment in the Tumen River area? Do you think the temptation for China to have broader access to the Sea of Japan, complete with naval basing facilities would be too much?
Why, Pawi, an ethnic epithet from you of all people? Say it ain’t so!
Sorry to tell you this, but China has already made what most Koreans consider their historical homeland into a province or two.
I do not think China will allow a unified Korea, especially after hearing some Koreans talk about a unified Korea taking back territory from China that Koreans believe to be theirs. Also, I cannot imagine the US going to war with China over North Korea. If something does happen in North Korea, China will go in under the pretense of restoring order and simply stay, which the US probably prefers to Kim Jong-il running the place. I think the only way North and South Korea will ever be reunified is if China were to fall apart, Soviet style.
I think the South Korean government has been kissing China’s ass in an attempt to convince her that she would have nothing to fear from a unified Korea, and China probably wouldn’t have much to fear, but why take the chance?
Re: #26
One word : “Tibet”
As a piece of land, Tibet is nearly worthless : too mountainous, dry, cold, and high in elevation to be of much economic use. Compared to Tibet, NK is a tropical paradise. However, they took Tibet and got away with it, so why not NK ?
Also, China does not want a strong rival like Korea literally on its border. So, China will do everything it can to keep Korea as weak as possible.
On the other hand, there could be those that wisely realize uniting Korea and Japan against a common enemy - China - would be a very bad thing indeed. So, they would be hesitant to provoke war with the ROK with tacit support from certain elements within the U.S. government Iran-Contra-style.
Either way, let’s hope we don’t live in interesting times.
RE #31
It is unthinkable that the threat of China would unite Korea and Japan especially over the territorial disputes between China and Korea. The Japanese have learned the hard way as to how ungrateful Koreans are.
They do not appreciate what Americans did to their country. Will Japan
expect appreciation from Korea by supporting them in a conflict between
the two countries? The Japanese are fed up with the involvement with the
Korean peninsula.
31, Think strategic buffer. It offers an advantage over neighbor and potential great power, India. Think Golan Heights and ‘he who holds the high ground’.
Can share my humble opinions? If so:
China will NOT formally annex North Korea. Since 1945 not a single internationally recognized state has ever been annexed by another state. Tibet analogy is not applicable, since Tibet’s independence was never widely – let alone universally – recognized. Its international standing in the alte 1940s was not much different from that of, say, present-day North Cyprus or Transdnestr Republic.
An annexation of NK would be an unprecedented act of aggression. It will drive everybody against China, and this is not what Beijing wants. Koreans will be terrified and run back to Uncle Sam, and Russians will start having second thoughts about wisdom of their flirting with Chinese. In a long run, these negative effects will nulify the value of this acquisition, and it seems that Chinese understand this. Above all, people in Beijing need favourable environment for the economic growth, and they also believe that time is on their side (perhaps, correctly).
However, control does not require formal annexation. As all marmots know very well, Mongolia remained independent from 1922 to 1991, even though its leader was not much different from a Soviet regional party secretary. So, what Chinese might do (I am not saying they will actually do it) is to install a puppet government in Pyongyang, led by some pro-Chinese general. Not an “Outer Koguryo”, but proudly independent Free Socialist Choson – well, the same old mask of the “DPRK”! Chinese will get mineral and transportation rights, and take over economy – and its all.
I do not believe in fighting, since nearly all elite will welcome such an outcome: under the South Koreans they will fare much worse than under the Chinese. If somebody will have to be killed, again it will not be up to the Chinese to do the shooting: a new leader, Glorious General Pak, the Bright Sun of the 75 million Koreans, will send his brave troops to root out a handful of reactionaries. But it is not very likely. At all probability, no fighting.
Are there ways to fight? Yes, a lot, and I hope that SK side will start doing something soon. In one word, this system will be more conducive to potential domestic opposition, and this opposition forces should be nurtured by those people in Seoul who do not want to give the “northern provinces” to the Chinese.
Thanks to Lankov and others for such better-rounded perspectives. Yes, there are many ways that a collapse of the KJI regime could play out, some better and some worse. Like how when glass breaks the lines of splintering are literally un-predictable, depends on the exact circumstances of that time. The scenario that Lankov paints does seem likely, and may be the best we can realistically hope for…
‘pawi, you must be on crack.’
once again, the expat is true to form; doesn’t address my points, just engages in personel attacks. on crack? what do you mean? do you mean this:
vietnam vs france
vietnam vs us
iraq vs us
israel vs hamas
is that what you mean? and save the yeah-but-koreans-can’t-fight argument. it’s tired and old. china try to take korea, there will be war. you got that? THERE WILL BE WAR. china will lose.
in more ways than one……
‘the word is tibet’
no, the word isn’t tibet. please see religion of non-violence to reach nirvana.
‘japan will not help because we are tired of koreans.’
you’re right. the japanese don’t ever do for others. that’s why japan will be supporting south korea in any chinese initiated war of conquest. wakarimaska? eehe hamnika? natto, don’t you find that ‘-ka’ interesting?
‘Why, Pawi, an ethnic epithet from you of all people? Say it ain’t so!’
faux indignity, where were you when brenden called us koreans ‘pigs’? can i ask that? where was your voice then? i didn’t hear from you. i think you need to shut up.
oh, and the chinese on my shit list. sorry. they back off koguryeo. they don’t make war with koreans. then they off shit list and i can return to liking them as i have all my life.
Imagine Mexico were on the verge of collapse
Actually, sounds like Mekiko since the dawn of times…
There appears to be an interesting generational divide amongst South Koreans on this question, and perhaps a social-class divide too; but i have only anecdotes. A few elite-class Koreans older than 45 or so that i know speak very much like pawi there, tho in more sophisticated terms of course.
But just about every younger Koreana i’ve discussed this with (quite a few college students) don’t really care much about the future of NK except in the most symbolic terms; they’re quite open to say that they have no real problem with China taking over NK if that will preserve peace and stability, not worsening their already-troubled job-prospects or disturbing their consumerist lifestyle. If it were at all blatant it would cause them discomfort, tho still not spur them to action. If China were as subtle and smooth about it as it has been in Mongolia, and as Lankov predicts they will be, these younger South Koreans will have no problem with it at all.
Don’t know quite how that makes me feel, myself as an involved outsider — i can see the points and understand the feelings of both sides. I certainly don’t want a destructive war…
How in the world can the Chinese sustain the Nork economy by themselves. I mean really? For some reason, everyone thinks China has the resources to pull this off. Are you guys serious? You think that they can sustain, rule and manage 25 million Norks without sinking themselves?
Hmmmnnn — yeah right.
i’ve seen respectable people like sanshinseon say the same thing about korea’s youth. then, i’ve seen other people correct this type of thinking by suggesting that people not read too much into that. korean youth will do what’s expected of them 때가 되면.
‘Koreans older than 45′ sanshinseon
the ones who run the country. if china invades the north, there will be war.
‘if the chinese are subtle…’
don’t matter if they are subtle since we’re already suspicious of their intentions. the north will be absorbed by the south and then, the korean people can be one again.
that’s the way it will be.
I’d like to see Korea’s youth step up to the plate for North Korean people NOW. China, even one which killed off about 15% of Tibetans in modern times, couldn’t treat average DPRK citizens worse than the Kim Family Regime has been treating them all these years.
Lessee… An estimated GDP of about $24 billion vs. an estimated GDP of about $10 trillion. My guess is pretty comfortably. After all, they’re basically sustaining the Nork economy already. Of course, that does leave the question of why they’d want North Korea. We’re talking about one of the Shittiest Countries on Earth(tm), after all. It’s not as if they have some sort of irrational emotional attachment to the territory (even without giving two shits about the people), like some countries do.
You are talking about ratios. And for that matter South Korea to the Norks also looks good on paper. But how can China move in on the Norks without looking like a bunch of hacks? You are thinking that it will be a matter of policing–you are wrong. The world is watching–China would have to demonstrate that the country benefits from Chinese rule and that takes resources that they don’t have.
Let me ask again–and forget money–which Chinese general has the mojo to pull such an endeavor off–huh?
You Koreans are averagely welcomed. We don’t want that freezing useless area. Fi you appear nice to us and politely ask for help, we might take NK and give it back to you. But if you guys continuously claiming Manchuria as your “DIVINE LAND” of your nameless taled ancestry, we won’t be glad to see you guys coming unified. Although we dislike Japanese, at least they are not revisionists. But you Koreans are cute and dangerous. Who knows what you want to do after being stimulated by this “National glorious revival event of reunification”? We just don’t want that poor land being filled with nukes and pshchos. But you are no more rational than your northern cousins. I just don’t know why you guys always keep making issues with your neighbours? Yes, you have not done your job in the reunifcation. But you are too easily and early to say that Northeast China is yours. At the same time, you claim some island from Japanese. You clearly don’t understand what grand strategy is. Even the majority of Chinese dislike Japanese, you hold no better impressions than them. I would even say it is silly for you to be overconfidence and crazily ambitious, since you are located between the second and third biggest economies of the world. And sometimes you are unhappy with Americans… Well, you guys are too shortsighted and not valuable arguing with.
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