The Marmot’s Hole

About 80% of my posts columns at the Korea Times were about the Korean presidential election.

Now that the election is over, what can I write about?  How about post-election analysis pieces? 

My latest is on what I see as the increased electoral importance of the capital area as a region more independent of the old Yeongnam-Honam fight:

An increasing number of voters in the region were born and raised there and they are beginning to break away from the voting patterns of their parents. That change in voting patterns made itself felt in this year’s presidential election….

Lee’s victory over Park Geun-hye for the GNP nomination over Park Geun-hye is another sign of a shift in power toward the capital region. Support from Park’s political base in Daegu, in the heart of the GNP’s traditional Yeongnam stronghold, was not enough for her to prevail over the former Seoul mayor.

The new electoral calculus means that current Seoul Mayor Oh se-hoon and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Moon-soo must be included with Park in the short list of likely successors to Lee in the 2012 presidential race….

This shift does not mean that the capital region will permanently support the GNP, but it does mean that it will dominate the parties’ political calculations like never before.

(BTW - I know that someone asked me a bunch of questions in my last post.  I hope to get to them tomorrow.)

Speaking of elections, I just can’t help but note that the American presidential election is mighty interesting.

Republicans have five candidates that are polling in double didgits nationally.  Giuliani’s former big lead is mostly gone now and he is likely to lose badly in the first three contests (IA, NH, SC).  On the other had, he is still strong in a lot of big states and has the money to last through some rough spots, so he is not out by a long shot.  This thing is wide open.

Among the Democrats, Clinton is still way ahead nationally but the races in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are really close (although Clinton was cruising in Nevada, the other early contest).  Obama and Clinton both have a ton of money, so they can go at least through Super Duper Tuesday on February 5.

We might even see an independent bid from someone willing to spend up to a billion dollars on his campaign.

Mighty interesting.  Real Clear Politics has a ton of information for anyone out there who wants it.

(BTW2 - This will probably be the only time I mention the US presidential election on this blog unless I can relate it to Korea.)