Since the Marmot nicely gives me a bigger megaphone than the comment line, I thought I would breathlessly give my thoughts on recent election as the rest of the contributors have done, or will do.
First, I really got to say something about the campaigns. If I needed any more reason and a vote, Chung Dong-young would have been quickly skipped on my ballot. I have that freaking “Chung Dong-young YEAH! Chung Dong-young YEAH!…” campaign song raging in my head and I just cannot get it to stop. Speaking of Bongo-truck-bearing cheese, Kwon Yong-gil would have also been scratched thanks to his crew’s sudden 7am loud speaker that negated my need for coffee but required a dentist to put my fillings back in. Finally, have you seen the official poster for Mr. Kwon? (not to mention several others). Was it just me, or was his hair plug job done by a bunch of drunken plastic surgeons playing “pin the tale on the ass”?
That brings me to the winner, Mr Lee Myeong-bak. Admittedly I am of the “eh, so” camp, for many of the reasons outlined in the comments section here. However, I thought I would take a chance to enumerate and expand on a couple things.
Out of all the comments I have heard about Mr. Lee’s acceptance speech and plans in the press, I found something peculiarly omitted. The omission is even more conspicuous in light of the oft trumped “Lee will repair the KORUS alliance” line, or the “Lee will get Korea’s economy back on track.” Why is no mention made to the US-Korea FTA agreement sitting in the assembly waiting to be ratified? While I am very hesitant to encourage the US to ratify the document, let alone call it “free trade”, I would think pushing for the ratification would be strong steps in meeting two planks in Lee’s platform.
Mr. Lee, and the Korean Government as a whole, is playing the same game it has for every other FTA signed by the country. Knowing that it would difficult politically in Korea for the assembly to ratify an FTA on its merits (laudable they may be), they wait for the other country to ratify first. This gives the agreement just enough momentum for ratification based on the argument it would be embarrassing for the agreement not to be ratified (incidentally, note how the “victim” card is played throughout Korean FTA talks).
Let’s add this to a little calculus about US politics. I think it is safe to say that the US presidential nomination candidates are pinning themselves as protectionist. I do not mean to sound pejorative, just noting the timbre of the debate. Everyone talks about immigration and “outsourcing”, and you even have the lead Democratic candidate talking about “re-negotiating” NAFTA to make it “more fair” (and something tells me this does not mean removing the exceptions).
With such a mood, I would say it would be unlikely we will get a President in 2008 as vocal about free trade as, say, George W. Bush. Even if they support free-trade, I doubt they would dedicate their initial political capital in 2009 on a contentious thing like an FTA with Korea. In other words, the earliest I would expect KORUS FTA ratification taken up by the US Senate is 2010.
With out Lee pushing it, I expect the next time we will hear of the KORUS FTA is well into the next decade. Which ironically is the same time frame as Yongsan closing down, the turnover of wartime control of Korean forces to the Korean government, and finally the fact that Lee himself at that time will be a lame duck plagued with a scandal, or two, or three… (if he plays out like every other Korea President). I ask the peanut gallery then, what are the chances of Korean FTA ratification with so much on the Korean Government’s agenda?
Another thing attributed to Mr. Lee, and one he actually campaigned on, is he will “hold North Korea accountable.” Color me skeptical on this one, and I can recommend many reasons why. With the South’s now deep ties to the North, Lee can be put into difficult situations if he really tries to ratchet up the pressure, and it’s pretty hard to stop the tide.
The lead chaebol involved in North Korean cooperation the past 10 years has been Hyundai, coincidentally the same company Lee is famously from. While I discount the ideas of some of out-in-out corruption by Lee in favor by Hyundai, I am not so sure about action, or inaction, that affects the Chaebol. To give an example and be blunt, I am unsure about the strident promises made by Lee if the North says “If you don’t do X, we will close down Hyundai’s Kumgang-san tours.” Something tells me if it ever came to that, Lee will find something trivial to show the North is dealing fairly.
By extension, I am unsure of the success in light of all the economic involvement the South has in the North. Another one of Lee’s planks has been he would be “pro-growth/pro-business” to use the American political lexicon. Again, if it comes down to the shutdown of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, I think Lee will find some trivial compliance to political fall back to.
I also mentioned the tide. First the Korean government has found many programs to support the North. Things like fertilizer shipments may be the news, but it overshadows many other forms of cooperation. First, as hinted before, South Korean businessmen are more likely to talk to the North for joint ventures that may or may not be supports for the North Lee’s government may not be able to control. Second, there are all sorts of aid in the way of cultural and educational “exchanges” funded publicly and privately. It may be simple to stop a boat of rice, but it’s harder to kill off a government program. Last, it is notable that much of the emergency aid that has been given in the recent years has come from NGO’s like the Korean Red Cross and church organizations out of direct government control.
I could go on, but that is a couple of the more elaborate thoughts I have. I too am skeptical of how effective a career Chaebol guy will do in fighting corruption, lowering trade barriers, and many other issues. I have doubts about the canal scheme (if it’s needed, I think more rail would be cheaper and more effective). Bottom line, let’s find out how he does, but I am not exactly dancing in the streets.
15 Comments
Perhaps Marmot should send you back to the comment line — your post was almost unreadable, or at least incoherent enough that I had to let it die after the first five lines.
Don’t listen to Boris here, your post was fine. It needed a second draft and an editor, but your point was clear.
And I agree that anything said by a chaebol guy about anything business or North Korea related should be held suspect. After KJI dies we’ll see the era of “jockeying for cheap North Korean labor” and every business from S.K. to China to Japan to the USA will be elbowing each other out of the way as soon as they get the opportunity.
A lot of presidential candidates not only in the U.S. but in the West tend to talk a protectionist line during primaries. Then once the winner gets in office they tend to get a clue and throw their protectionist ideas out the window. Maybe it is all those Econ Ph.D’s telling them over and over again what a bad idea protectionism is for the world economy. Maybe they are just pandering to their electorate during the election. My guess is a bit of both.
Uh, sonagi, do you also assume this guy’s first language wasn’t English?
Oh, Pawi, you’re setting yourself up with that question, but since it’s Christmas Eve, I’ll bite my tongue and be nice.
I sincerely wish you and all the Marmot crew a festive and joyous holiday season.
놀리는 사람은 좋아한다
As a holiday gift, I share with you this link:
http://www.experiencefestival....../id/219677
Peace, Pawi.
Dram_man long time no see.
Dram_man does have a point here. When some Koreans think about LMB and his economic policies they don’t see a man who will increase corporate governance, bring down trade barriers, induce a market-based economy, and encourage foreign investment. They see a guy who most probably will use tax payer and borrowed money for huge construction projects and let loose the chaebols, probably to the point of turning a blind eye to corporate governance, in order to acheive his “747 Plan”. Pretty much they see someone who so far looks like will follow the economic policies of the past military governments. Of course policies like that might have worked in the 70s and the 80s, but in this era of the global economy, well…Also one only has to look at Korea’s island neighbor to figure out that government construction projects aren’t exactly economic growth elements.
Anyways, we’ll see how things turn out.
mins, that’s a good analogy, and one which I’ve not heard yet. For the many who voted for LMB, they may well hope for him to be a president in the mold of Park Chung-hee, but one who (importantly) does not enact the oppressive and restrictive civil legislation of Park’s era. Also, I think that some Koreans would much prefer seeing public money spent on projects domestically, rather than simply sent northward through a variety of efforts which have borne little fruit as of yet.
The only Koreans who want to see public money spent on domestic construction projects are the construction companies, the landowners, and real estate speculators who would benefit from such spending.
Other Koreans like me, however, prefer not to see public money go down the drain through unnecessary construction projects such as the “Grand Canal.”
1)FTA: Japan has not ratified FTA. Why Korea should?
2)US-Korea relation: From now on, Korea will be very pro-America. 180 degree shift from the Commies.
3)NK : Lee will hold KJI accountable. No more free lunch. KJI will increase “tough talk” and it will alienate him more from SK public. Ten years ago, SKs thought KJI might open NK. Nobody is fooled now. Soon, people will call KJI the blood-sucking dictator SOB which he is.
4)Economy: Many blunders have been made by amateur Commies who have not finished college. With Lee in charge, Korean ecomony will be run by professionals, Havard MBAs. Things will be a lot better.
5)Grand Canal: this was just a red-herring to confuse public. This will be put into a back burner.
President Lee will put Korea on the map. Trade will increase with other countries(with or without FTA) and Korea once again will accelerate its internationalization efforts.
Do you that before these Commies took over Korea was considering making English the second language?
Soon Korea will be more open country than Japan. The hub of the region. Economically, socially, cuturally and most importantly the Christian nation in Asia,like England was the Christian nation in Europe.
#2 answers #1.
You’re kidding, right? I mean, Korea isn’t exactly a backwater country nobody’s heard about like Burundi or San Marino or whatever.
Maybe the ‘Commies’ realized what a stupid idea that would be, what with the piss-poor state of English education in the country. After all, what use is it having an official language if there isn’t a sizable percentage of the population who actually speaks it?
Now that’s just mystifying. Whatever happened to… I dunno… every other European country?
Yeah, but I believe that, in preference to sending more tax money northward, they do.
Under the Sunshine Policy, South Koreans as well as non-Koreans who work for them have been expected to make economic sacrifices in order to increase the possibility of reconciliation and reunification. Under this policy, no local economic benefit accrues, yet I believe that an expectation for increased economic power was a motivator for political change this time around.
As a local (non-Korean) taxpayer, I don’t want tax revenues squanderred, either. Between spending the money on public works projects locally or a continuation of passing the money without concession to the North, I also favor its use in public works.
Exactly—if you are just making a comment, most people just fire away. However, if you are an official contributor to a decent site, you should at the minimum be making a second draft, and if needed, getting someone to check it for readability.
A lot of the main posts here are well written, and can be quickly scanned for interesting or complex content.
The post I’m complaining about needed more than the usual effort to dissect as the writer was lazy and left us with the work of digging through the garbage that was his writing.
No offence intended to the author of this blog, but you are in a position to demand more from your writers here.
You mostly seem to take the time to sharpen your text, and you are fortunate that writers like Lankov submit here, which is a huge plus for this page.
Is there no way to ask other contributors to selflessly edit before submission?
Pyotr> Are you volunteering? How kind of you! I would be happy to confirm all future posts with you if you forward along your email.
Thanks Again,
Dram Man
That being said, it’s never a bad idea to look at one’s post before hitting the “Publish” button.