Update: I know this thing is already buried, but I figured I sould post an update to see how I did.
Here are the top five candidates. The first number is the actual result, rounded to the nearest whole number, the second is my prediction and the third is the difference between the two.
- Lee Myung-bak 49%/45%/4
- Chung Dong-young 26%/26%/0
- Lee Hoi-chang 15%/13%/2
- Moon Kook-hyun 6%/8%/2
- Kwon Young-ghil 3%/5%/2
So my the total difference between my prediction and the actual results is 10%, which I didn’t think is too bad. My biggest mistake was assuming that the BBK video would knock MB down 6%.
Original post: OK, I have been posting on this election for over a year (going back to my own blog) so I will soon have to find something else to write about. Before I do, I will subject myself to ridicule by posting my prediction of the final results. BTW, if any NEC officials are reading this, I am not saying what should happen, just what I think will happen.
Here is my prediction.
- Lee Myung-bak 45%
- Chung Dong-young 26%
- Lee Hoi-chang 13%
- Moon Kook-hyun 8%
- Kwon Young-ghil 5%
- everyon else (including Rhee In-jae) 3%
Feel free to post your own predictions. Whoever makes the most accurate predictions gets bragging rights until the April legislative elections.
The winner of the betting pool is….. Sanshinseon! His total variation from the actual results was only 8 percent and he was the only one to correctly call Lee Myung-bak getting 49%. Congratulations.
BTW, if you are somehow interested in how I made that sausage, read below.
Step one: I started with the last results from Realmeter and rounded all the candidate numbers down to the nearest whole number (just so I could deal with whole numbers). I also assumed that Rhee In-jae would hold on and get 1-2% while all the also-rans would combine for 1-2%. I also gave Kwon Young-ghil a 1% bonus because I think his supporters will turn out at a higher than average rate.
- Lee Myung-bak 47%
- Chung Dong-young 21%
- Lee Hoi-chang 11%
- Moon Kook-hyun 9%
- undecided 6%
- Kwon Young-ghil 3%
- Rhee In-jae 2%
- other 1%
Step two: Then I assumed that the BBK video knocked LMB half-way down to his lowest level of the general election, which was 36% (just after LHC entered the race). I dropped Lee down to 41% and distributed those votes to LHC (3%), CDY (2%) and MKH (1%).
Step three: Tactical voting will shift some support from LHC to LMB and from MKH to CDY (2% each). However, CDY’s gains will be offset by progressives who give up on Chung’s winning and decide to vote with their hearts (2% from CDH, 1% each to MKH and KYG)
Step four: Undecideds generally break for the leading candidate, but I assume that the variety of choices will reduce that tendency somewhat. (2% to LMB, 1% each to CDY, LHC and MKH)
Step five: I just can’t bring myself to put down Moon Kook-hyun for 10%, so I shifted 2% from him to Chung. Just mark that down to Chung having a better organization behind him.
Sphere: Related ContentRelated Posts
- This week’s presidential election poll (and some predictions)
- Presidential poll of the week: Lee Myung-bak still going strong
- Presidential poll of the week: Lee Hoi-chang hits a wall… then does a flip and lands face-first
- The weekly presidential poll (Oct 23-24)
- Election 2007: Lee Myung-bak wins (Andy’s semi-live blogging of election night)
33 Comments
1. Lee Myung-bak 40%
2. Chung Dong-young 26%
3. Lee Hoi-chang 18%
4. Moon Kook-hyun 8%
5. Kwon Young-ghil 5%
6. everyon else (including Rhee In-jae) 3%
Marilyn Manason 40%
Commie Chung 29%
Lee Hoi Chang 16%
Moon Kook Hyun 11%
Kwon Young Gil 1%
Rhee In Jae 1%
Kim Jong Il 2%*
*Am I not only breaking the NEC laws but National Security Law as well? Guess i’m getting cuffed next time i go back…
the results of this election are almost irrellevant now.
what’s more interesting is what will happen in the National Assembly elections (read: balance of power issue) and whether a certain somebody can shake the demons and be able to effectively govern. or, more likely, whether we’ll have paralysis for the next few years as the system sinks even deeper and a movement grows to reincarnate the ghost of PCH.
wow.. how pessismistic is that?!? sorry, guys.
Lee Myung Bak 35%
Comrade Chung 30%
Lee Hoi Chang 25%
All others 10%
Also, I bid $1 on the new Kia.
So when will the polls close, and when will we know the official results?
#5 6:00 and 9:00-11:00
I believe Korea still uses hand-counted paper ballots (insert hanging chad joke here) so it takes a little while to count.
If you are in Korea, turn on the TV news just before 6:00. They will most likely count down the last few seconds to the closing of polls and then flash their exit poll results at the instant they are aloud to do so.
allowed
1. Lee Myung-bak 36%
2. Chung Dong-young 31%
3. Lee Hoi-chang 17%
4. Moon Kook-hyun 10%
5. Kwon Young-ghil 3%
6. everyone else (including Rhee In-jae) 3%
Andy, according to Yonhap, they use automatic ballot-sorting machines “assisting for the second time in presidential elections. Each machine is capable of feeding and counting up to 280 ballots per minute, the NEC said.”
But we could all be in for a major surprise, who knows!
p.s. The NEC apparently says that we’ll know who the next president is by 9.00pm. Claimed victory at 10.30pm last time round…
19% is a huge margin of victory, AJ. More than any other prediction posted above so far. Any re-thinks in the light of day?
I’m predicting a landslide for Christopher Paul Neil.
#8 Thanks for the heads up.
#10 I guess I will have to stick to my guns. I’d rather be a loser than a wimp.
I realize that I might be overstating Lee’s support a bit but the other problem is anyone who switches from Lee has to go somewhere else and nobody has caught fire with the voters. So my guess is that many of the voters who are turned off by the BBK video will just stay home rather than switch support.
11- I’m predicting a mudslide for his supporters, and a golden shower for his boosters.
1. Lee Myung-bak 37%
2. Chung Dong-young 30%
3. Lee Hoi-chang 16%
4. Moon Kook-hyun 7%
5. Kwon Young-ghil 6%
6. Rhee In-jae 2%
all others 2%
Result will be:
1. Lee Hoi-chang 33%
3. Lee Myung-bak 30%
3. Chung Dong-young 15%
4. Moon Kook-hyun 4%
5. Kwon Young-ghil 4%
6.Lee In-je 4%
5. Etc.
Result will prove MB’s popularity was just a buble.
(Gosh. I know how people think, be intoxicated and react. MB was too much in the middle of criticism and too much appeared in the rectangular idiot box, and now people have come near to thinking of MB as the president of Korea. Gosh.)
Just a guess:
LMB - 40
CDY - 24
LHC - 17
MKH - 8
KYG - 6
RIJ - 2
Others/Undecided - 3
We’ll find out in a few hours…
Park Geun-Hye (GILF!) will always be the winner to me. I want to see what she looks like without those hairpins.
I think that many will jump on the winning bandwagon:
1. Lee Myung-bak 49%
2. Chung Dong-young 25%
3. Lee Hoi-chang 11%
4. Moon Kook-hyun 7%
5. Kwon Young-ghil 5%
6. Rhee In-jae and etc 3%
I think Chung Dong-young pulls an upset, and, with the ensuing anti-american hate-fest, over the course of 2008 a new age of expat bloggers will turn public opinion in the US, and we will see a pull-out of the American military and with it the withdrawal of the foreign corporate investment, prompting a collapse of the Korean economy and, smelling weakness, a new invasion by North Korea on June 25, 2009, and in 2010 a-letheia gets bragging rights on Marmots hole, which by that time blogs out the comfort and security of Mongolia.
1. Lee Myung-bak 30%
2. Chung Dong-young 32%
3. Lee Hoi-chang 17%
4. Moon Kook-hyun 10%
5. Kwon Young-ghil 5%
6. everyon else (including Rhee In-jae) 6%
at least it’s quiet outside today … and there shouldn’t be too many people yapping on podiums for a while.
1. Lee Myung-bak 39%
2. Chung Dong-young 31%
3. Lee Hoi-chang 10%
4. Moon Kook-hyun 12%
5. Kwon Young-ghil 3%
everyon else (including Huh Kyung-Young) 5%
My sources at an exit-polling firm have given me an exclusive leak of early returns.
As expected, Christopher Paul Neil currently maintains a strong lead at 42%. Pundits have concluded that Neil’s ability to evade authorities for several years while in Korea will serve him well as president.
Late this morning, a dark horse has emerged. Running second at 33% is “the expat,” which is surprising given his campaign promises of formally emancipating all Korean females, legalizing marijuana, outlawing noraebang, banning Korean men from video bangs, and handing the reigns of the Foreign Ministry over to Dave Sperling. Apparently female voters have driven this candidate, much to the dismay of “the gyopo.”
Currently third at 14% is Jamila from misuda, running on a platform of infantile baby talk, rimjobs, and TellMe dances for all. Pulling up the rear (no pun intended) at 11% are the Wondergirls, promising voters the “real” Tellme dance, not to be confused with the blue-eyed foreign devil version Jamilla is peddling.
Developing…
Made In Japan - Buck Owens
My transistor radio comes from far away
And when it’s night over here over there it’s a breaking day
I remember all the good times I had walking in the sand
With a beautiful girl that I met made in Japan
The beauty of her face was beyond my wildest dreams
Like cherry blossoms blooming in the mountains in the early spring
As we walked by the river and she softly took hold of my hand
That’s when I fell deep in love with a girl made in Japan
[ guitar ]
In the dark of night we would lay on Tokyo bay
And the singing of the birds woke us up at the break of day
Her smiling eyes always seemed to try to understand
All the love in my heart for the girl made in Japan
My transistor radio comes from far away
And when it’s night over here over there it’s a breaking day
She cried when she said she’d been promised to another man
That’s when I left my heart with the girl made in Japan
Yes my heart will always be with the girl made in Japan
That’s a cool lyric . . .
Looks like Andy’s prediction of a huge gap between LMB and the also-rans has come true.
That’s one of my fav Buck Owens songs…
It looks like sanshinseon’s prediction was remarkably accurate.
I’m glad Koreans seem to have learned a lesson the dumm lefties, at least in Korea, are not to be trusted with government policies.
“Park Geun-Hye (GILF!) will always be the winner to me. I want to see what she looks like without those hairpins.”
Same here, she’s awesome. I’d love to see her drenched in sesame oil.
i wuz (almost) RIGHT!!! (see #18 above) — none of you must ever doubt the shamanic predictive powers of the Mountain-Spirits again!!!
note that Chung is at 26.3%, putting Andy spot-on — his 26 better than my 25. “Bamboo Justice” Lee HC surprised us ALL by earning 15.1 — newyorkTom and craig were closest.
That makes the mainstream-conservative share of the 60%-bother-to-vote electorate total 63.6 — WOW.
Andy,
Fantastic! You guess it perfect.
Maybe you know more about Koreans than I do.
Congratulations Sanshinseon, you beat me by 2 points. Maybe you should start doing more political posts here to go along with your cultural stuff.
Baduk,
Thanks.
Naw Andy, you’re the pro on this stuff, i barely pay attention to it outside of the postings on this blog — i was just guessing on basis of my gut-feeling (like GWBush does!), got lucky…