I hope y’all like the official sounding name I chose for the post. There will be no links on this one since I am getting my information from YTN TV.
5:19 YTN has started the count down tracker in the upper-left corner of my TV screen. Just 41 minutes until we can see the exit polls. Official results will be known by 11:00, although a winner will likely be called well before then.
As Rob noted earlier, turn out is light. It is 56% as of 5:00, so I guess it will end up at a little over 60%.
5:30 OK, here are a couple of links to check out while we wait.
uhkkgfhh (That is my daughter’s first contribution to a blog post.)
5:40 BTW, I certainly don’t expect to hog the blog. I will not be unhappy if other contributors play through.
5:49 My wife changed the channel to SBS. It doesn’t really matter since every station will do the countdown and exit poll.
5:51 Weird, some reporter is following Chung Dong-young’s car as he drives along an expressway on the way to view the results.
5:54 BTW, I will have the results up by 6:02. If you can’t wait two minutes, turn on the TV. If you are not in Korea, I guess you’ll just have to wait.
5:56 Four minutes to go. My next entry will be with the results.
6:02 Exit polls indicate that Lee Myung-bak is the winner. The numbers:
- Lee Myung-bak 51.8%
- Chung Dong-young 25.o%
- Lee Hoi-chang 13.8%
- Moon Kook-hyun 5.8%
- Kwon Young-ghil 3.0%
Official results will come later.
Lee did about 6% better than I thought he would. Even the BBK video and low turnout in Seoul didn’t slow him down. I believe this is the first time any candidate has gotten over 50% since elections were restored in 1987. It is certainly the most lop-sided election since then.
Other exit polls:
There can some minor differences between the exit polls and the final count, but the results are clear; a big win for Lee Myung-bak.
6:55Exit polling indicates that MB won everywhere except the Republic of Honam. Even there, Chung Dong-young only got around 80% which is much less than the Saddam Hussein-like numbers progressives usually get there.
Early counting has Chung Dong-young leading Lee Myung-bak 2087 to 431.
8:18 With 10% of voting places reporting, Lee Myung-bak leads Chung Dong-young 45.0% to 29.6%. Chung actually led a little with 1% reporting but Lee soon took the lead and the gap between the two has been growing since.
The game is over and there is no point in posting any more until the post game show. So time to sign off.
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Break out the bubbly!
I hope the over 50% sticks!
Anybody want to make book on whether or not Chung Dumb Young et al will respect the decision of the electorate and withdraw the motion for another investigation of Lee? I’ll give odds.
Yay! Now let’s build a really really big Cheonggyecheong! That will solve all our problems!
#3 Don’t doubt the power of the Cheonggycheong.
Aw. I was really hoping for a Huh Kyoung Young victory.
There’s not enough data points to make standard deviations valid, so what I (and Excel) did was just to find the percent difference between the 4 best predictions above, and the current exit polls. I’ll substitute the final numbers for the exit polls when they’re ready. As it stands, the average difference between Sanshinseon’s prediction and the exit polls is 28%; Andy 29%, iwshim 34% and globalvillage 36%.
That is, if someone predicted 50% and the result was 52%, they’re off by 4%, not 2%; and if someone predicted 2%, and the result was 4%, they’re off by 100%, not 2%.
…and I just realized I put this in the wrong thread. Drinking while I pack for a trip, it always works out this way.
Thanks Linkd. Maybe I still have a chance if the results are a little different that the exit polls.
“Thanks Linkd. Maybe I still have a chance if the results are a little different that the exit polls.”
You can’t discount the possibility of a little fibbing when it comes to exit polls. It has happened before.
Whoever wins buys the beer!
Hey Andy, nice first blogpost of your daughter. Judging by the way her post sounds, she’s already showing a sense disbelief at the voting results of this election.
LMB!? The next five years are gonna Rock!
OK, with 88% of votes in, there’s been a swing, thanks to Sanshinseon underestimating LHC, and Andy zeroing in on LMB’s true support level. It’s now Andy, 26%; SSS and iwshim tied at 28%, and global at 33%. I’ll give a final check in the morning.
With 97.5% votes counted “Bulldozer” Lee has 48.6% and “Bamboo Justice” Lee earned 15.1 — making the mainstream-conservative share of the 62%-bother-to-vote electorate total 63.7, nearly 2/3 — i find that a stunning repudiation of the progessives and liberals…
A new era in SK.
All hail Marilyn Manson!!!
Canal…what canal? They’re gonna fight over how to build this crap for the next five years and get nothing done. Taking bets NOW.
Fat lady hoarse.
Chosun.co.kr gives LMB 48.7%, CDY 26.1%, LHC 15.1%, MKH 5.8%, KYG 3.0%, and others 1.3%. This gives our competitors the following average percentage deviations from the true results: Andy 25%; Sanshinseon 26%; iwshim 27% and globalvillage 35%.
Everyone’s results suffered from overestimating the support for “others”. If we ignore that category, and calculate only the predictions for the top 5 candidates, we get Andy 18%; SSS 20%; iwshim 21% and gvi 24%. Andy therefore wins bragging rights.
Maple syrup and snow banks await me. Sperwer, congratulations on the new gig; pawi, keep on rocking; colontos, you’re a whole bunch of fun; neff, I always enjoy your histories; Sonagi, in my head I picture you as pretty hot; Marmot, thanks for running a great blog. Merry Christmas to all.
Lee looks like a perv. I bet he wears women’s undies.
Hallelujah. Lee Myung Bak wins, new Republic of Korea President.
First of all, Lee Myung Bak. I have never known of a Presidential candidate in SK politics history, where his own party wanted so badly to bury him to the grave. He was born in Japan, he was a con-man, his face does not fit the gwan-sang of a President, but that of a Nae-shi, his canal project is horse crap, he’s not Park Jung Hee-esque enough, etc. Lee overcame all of this. Mostly thanks to Seoul and its satelite cities who make rational judgements historically on who should be President, and not based on blind regionalism, like Kyong Sang and Jeolla.
From what I could gather from McDonald’s at 5am in Koreatown or Korean church, mini Minoru Okamotos of old age simply wanted Lee Myung Bak to win, so that Kim Dae Jung and his sons would face jail time while Kim Dae Jung was alive.
From what I could gather from people at the same locations, but in their 40’s and 50’s, people were more like Seoulites. They simply wanted to avoid communism-esque liberalism, not very much different from UAW, Detroit Motown labor unions, granting over generous, unsustainable pensions, healthcare plans, etc. Low taxes, more jobs, made sense. After tasting high taxes, more social benefits, anti-Americanism, etc. Who was the fool who said Koreans are naturally communists? Well some for sure have confessed here that they are heirs of those who were part of the United States UAW. UAW is the American version of Lenin style communism. I’ll let you chew on that. Koreans learned quickly. Liberalism, communism is unsustainable. Anything unsustainable in all disciplines should be avoided. Koreans clearly displayed what they wanted.
Jeolla. They showed that they wanted to protect Kim Dae Jung, no matter what. Kyong Book. They showed that they wanted to punish Kim Dae Jung, no matter what.
Lee In Jae. Why is he so hated? I don’t understand. You only live once. He lived by his principles. He is simply hated because he made it MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE for Kim Dae Jung to be President for 5 years. He has a solid political principle, a resolve, and good governing experience in Kyong Gi. He is abandoned by Jeolla, because he’s not electable. He is abandoned by Kyong Sang, because they hate Kim Dae Jung.
Lee Hwae Chang. He was counting on BBK to make him king. Under any circumstances, he should have never been President.
Chung Dong Yong. Even more so, he should have never been President. Korea would have been ruined if he became President. His role in life is to become the head of the Korean version of the ACLU. I think you must agree that this is the sort of work he’s actually fit for.
#18,
Ah, but now he’s the spanking brand new president of Korea, who looks like a perv. The perspective has changed.
I am the fool to whom you refer.
You’re full of crap to deny that statement. Regardless of this election result, Koreans have an enormous natural appetite for a centrally-planned economy, a hyperactive all-powerful State, denial of market forces, and for subordination of law to ideology. Plus, in case you hadn’t noticed, Koreans enjoy a certain dose of political and social authoritarianism and hostility to personal liberties like free speech. That may not be small-c communism, but those signal traits surely smack of big-C Communism to me.
Mr. Carr,
with all due respect,
I blame Japan.
With utmost sincerity, wjk.
I’m not kidding, either. Think about it.
and although it’s similar to communism, it’s not.
If you want to say so, you must conclude by that logic, that Japan is a communist nation.
Well, it obviously is not.
The fool I was referring to was actually a certain protein eating, muscle builder, whose name starts with S.
#22,
You blame Japan for the Choson dynasty? That’s a first.
I any case, think you need to read up on the Donghak Revolution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D.....Revolution
That might explain why the Chosun Ilbo saw fit to run this article rationalizing cross-dressing. Otherwise it would be right out of the blue, and out of place as well given the paper’s business-news focus.
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