President Roh has ordered prosecutors to reinvestigate the BBK scandal following the release of video footage of GNP presidential candidate Lee Myung-bak claiming that he founded the BBK asset management company.
Which video, you ask? Well, children, this video:
This certainly doesn’t look good for Mr. Lee. The Hankyoreh has more for your viewing pleasure.
Will any of this make any difference? Well, putting on my pundit hat for a second, I’d say no. Not with three days left to the election, anyway. Besides, nobody’s voting for Lee because he’s the “clean” candidate — they’re voting for him because he’s the “I’ll get shit done” candidate. Sure, now that he’s gone from a suspected crook to, at least to many, an open crook (not, necessarily, that the prosecutors will see it that way), he’ll take some kind of hit at the polls. But Lee needs to take a massive hit to make this coming election interesting, and I don’t see that happening.
Of course, I could be wrong.
29 Comments
Desperate, dirty and fascinating - this has to be Korean politics at its best, letting rip. Naturally, all of Lee Myung-bak’s opponents have yet once again seized the ethical high ground and have gallantly demanded that he drop out of the race. At the same time,the Prosecutor’s Office made a public statement that the video tape does not demonstrate or imply anything criminal per se. (If there is anything criminal about the tape, it was how it was being used for possible blackmail.)
In any regard, the sheer timing of the video tape’s disclosure appears to be in line with Roh Moo-hyun’s trademark of throwing matters into chaos at the last minute whenever things are not going well for him – which has been a fairly common happenstance during his tenure. Whether he actually had a direct hand in this episode, it is anyone’s guess at this point, however.
My wife and I watched the last presidential debate this evening. All candidates did well, but only Lee Myung-bak came across as adequately experienced for the job. There was the inevitable mudslinging at MBL, but Lee was able to keep his composure and rise above it. He did remark, however, that he was universally well regarded abroad and at home — until he ran for president.
No doubt that Lee will lose a bit of his giant lead, but I suspect many people are tiring of the desperate, negative campaigning by the ruling camp. Though it may be entertaining if a bit unpleasant to witness this kind of antics on the Korean political stage, the results of the election still heavily favor Lee Myung-bak. I agree with Robert Koehler’s bottom line: most folks would rather have a competent President who may generate jobs than a politician who claims to be squeaky clean.
Turning off the television, my wife and I agreed the next couple of days in Korea are going to be incredibly interesting.
Sun Tsu taught us never to underestimate the desperate - a valuable lesson none of us should be forgetting between now and Election Day.
I think whether Lee MB will win the election or not is no longer relevant (he obviously will). If the reinvestigation finds him guilty, his presidency could end even before it begins.
Funny how this video just materialized today, isn’t it? How mysterious! The other candidates understandably made it a big issue in the debate tonight, and MBC News at 10pm spent almost twenty-five straight minutes on it, but it is likely too little, too late. Not to defend what seems to be a pretty damning tape, but it isn’t as if LMB’s rivals seem to have a strategy or vision beyond attacking their opponent at this point.
I don’t like LMB that much (actually, I’d be tempted to spoil my ballot instead of voting for any of these characters), but after a decade of the other guys - especially the last few years - it is probably time for a change. And, barring a miracle - which I also won’t rule out - that is what Koreans will vote to do, whether or not they think he’s a man of character, integrity, or whatever.
For me, the real, deeply important question is can Hanara, with LMB as president, grow beyond the corrupt politics of the past and do more for the society and national political culture than just grow numbers? Criminal organizations that counterfeit luxury products can grow numbers but a country needs more than that.
If Hanara can not do better, people will reject Hanara next time around and probably go with some other allegedly liberal candidate who will probably be as bad as the current administration. How that affects attempts at a NK/SK reunification, business and education remains to be seen.
He’ll still be the next prez. I don’t see people caring about that at this late great date.
Mr. Koehler, you’re absolutely right. Many of LMB’s supporters support him because he gets shit done. From my personal experience, many people already know that LMB is quite likely corrupt, but support him nonetheless as do I. Regardless of the outcome, my vote goes to LMB just so that other candidates, especially JDY, won’t get presidency and screw up Korea for good.
Although I am not fully familiar with the specifics of the case, I am baffled by the fact that his detractors think that by merely founding the company he was directly involved in its illegal activities.
You’re right, founding a company, even one that went belly up, does not neccesarily mean that he was directly involved in “illegal activities.” But the fact is LMB stated in public that “he had neither direct nor indirect relations with BBK and never held even a single share in it.”, while the above video shows that he had indeed set up the company that he previously claimed that he had “nothing to do with.” So his detractors are now trying to pin him as a liar and hoping/suggesting that if he lied about setting up and running the company itself, then there may be a possibility that he may have lied about the scams involving the company. Which his detractors are hoping will be proved correct and play right into their hands.
Not that it’ll affect the elections considering that it’s going to held the day after. But hey politics as usual.
Perceptions, (mis)understandings and interpretations — of all of these seem to be changing by the hour about this affair.
As of 9:30 AM, Monday, this episode could be summed up as to whether Lee Myung-bak actually took ownership of BBK when he help set up the company. Most Koreans are jumping to the conclusion that he did so. What I gather is that Lee’s party, GNP, denies this to be the case.
To those who are out to get MBL, this is a splitting of hairs or a matter of obfuscation by the conservatives. And they may well be right. But, if in fact MLB helped establish BBK has a favor and did not take ownership, then we have a tempest in teacup that could nonetheless scupper his chances for election.
(BTW, I appreciate comment #8, that includes a quote of MLB’s explicit denial, since it is the first I have encountered so far, being a dumb American. I hope mins0306 may offer us the source of that quotation.)
Today’s editorial in the JoongAng Ilbo advised Lee Myung-bak to be more forthcoming and honest about his relationship with BBK. But the Samsung-owned newspaper pointed out there are much greater issues facing Korea than this matter. Sadly, this is a very true observation.
At the same time, many Koreans are worried that in the end MBL could be Korea’s Richard Nixon and may have to resign after his inauguration if found guilty of some crime associated with BBK. That anxiety comes from jumping to conclusions without confirming the facts – and that is exactly the aim of those behind this attempt to derail Lee Myung-bak. Given how emotional Koreans can be on Election Day, their strategy just may work.
My sense is the Lee Hoi-chang has the most to benefit — but it will obviously be for naught, if his splitting of the conservative vote allows for ruling regime’s UNDP candidate Chung to slip by and into the Blue House. Chung has distanced himself from Pres. Roh and promises to bring competent technocrats into government rather than ideologues. But most Koreans are tired with his clique. As such, this election could potentially end up being a disappointment for the majority of the electorate.
#6,
Perpetuating the culture of corruption is ’screwing up Korea’ when you look at the big picture. I know quite a few people who’ll vote for one of the candidates backed by the labor unions. It makes more sense, in my opinion. It won’t make much of a difference in the outcome of the elections, but I was always thought that a vote should seen as a statement. What better statement to make in light of the many corruption scandals of late?
#9.
Here’s the link;
http://hiwebpia.com/before/gnu.....p;wr_id=75
This is a classic campaign mistake—going purely for the negative against your opponent. It didn’t work for Sen. Kerry and it won’t work for Chung.
Chung already has the “stink” of Roh on him to deal with. This doesn’t help.
Just to say thanks to mins0306 for the link in Comment #11. Though MBL may have in fact stated “he had neither direct nor indirect relations with BBK and never held even a single share in it,” that is not a direct quote. The quote is from Korea Herald reporter Song Sang-ho.
But here is a direct quote from today’s Korea Herald:
“That BBK was founded solely by Kim Kyung-joon has been objectively verified. What matters to the prosecution is who the owner of BBK was. We are not in a position to comment on (Lee’s) ethical issues,” said Kim Hong-il, the prosecutor who led the one-month probe into the BBK case.
But, whatever and in any case…
As of noon, Monday, many Koreans on the Internet are predicting that this late revelation probably will have at most a minor impact on Wednesday’s elections. BUT what may be much more interesting is the results of the reinvestigation of MBL that will continue past the election.
For openers, if Lee is in fact to be guilty of a crime following his election, what does the Constitution stipulate or how may it be interpreted? (Perhaps B. Carr, Esq. may help us out on that one…)
Then, consider this: this investigation has the potential to nuke either the conservatives or the progressives. That is, if Lee is found guilty or at least dirty and even if he does not step down from being president, the GNP will likely to be severely defeated in this coming spring legislative elections, leaving Pres. Lee with a highly antagonistic legistlature. He could well face a National Assembly quite motivated to block his initiatives. In effect, S Korea could end up with a lame duck president from Year One.
On the other hand, if MBL comes out with yet another clean bill of health, then we might as well say “bye-bye United New Democratic Party.” The progressives, be they led by Roh or Chung, will be heavily discredited and no doubt there will have to be yet another new political party organized for the spring elections — I hope with a shorter name, this time.
There is one other loser in this whole, sordid affair, that most people have not yet recognized - Park Geun-hye. It was she, during the primaries, who brought the BBK affair into the spotlight. Perhaps this matter would have surfaced anyway, but she could go down in history as someone who resurrected the GNP only to unintentionally help bring it down by sectarian competition. In any case, at least for the short term, she has been - or will likely be - weakened by this affair.
mins0306,
I am familiar with the part you mentioned but it does not mean a great deal to me personally. Perhaps I am too much of a cynic when it comes to politicians - I don’t think any one of them are honest…but only sometimes they get caught.
#13.
Actually I didn’t use it as a direct quote. I needed something to finish the sentence and thus quoted the article.
#14.
You’re not the only one. Lots of people are cynical when it comes to politicians, including me.
If it is determined that LMB is guilty of a crime, then he is theoretically subject to impeachment - assuming that the necessary votes can be mustered in the National Assembly. The action then will shift to the Constitutional Court, which will then have to decide whther nor not LMB’s crime(s) are sufficient to warrant sustaining his removal from office; despite the literal (and low threshold of) Constitutional standard of just being guilty of a crime, in the case of The Great Pretender, they found that his violations of law were not grave enough - even though arguably they impugned the electoral process itself, since the anti-electioneering law Roh violated - whether one thinks it’s sensible or not - does represent the constitutionally valid judgment of the legislature regarding what is necessary to ensure fair elections in Korea. Given the comparatively petty nature of the allegations against LMB, I don’t think he can be successfully impeached given the Con Court’s willingness to substitute its judgment for the plain language of the Constitution and the way in which its decision in the Great Pretender’s case has tied its own hands.
The President of the Republic of Korea enjoys immunity from ordinary criminal prosecution — not impeachment, though, as our friend Sperwer notes above — during his term of office. But if LMB is indicted prior to taking office, thus putting him in the position of being under criminal indictment during his whole term, he might as well resign. He would be a lame duck immediately.
The National Assembly has just passed the “special Lee MB BBK” law which mandates that the reinvestigation end before Lee is inaugurated.
The same national assembly majority passed that special law is the UNDP and has a candidate running for president. Yes, this is definitely a doubly crooked election since if the UNDP can somehow nail LMB in an investigation, their candidate may very likely win. If not, Koreans may panic at the polls if they believe LMB will be found guilty, thus splitting the conservative vote, leading to the same results.
I think this sort of sneaky politics is the real attempt at theft. I wonder if the Korean people will sit still for this and let it happen?
As Hunter S. Thompson once put it, “When the going gets weird, the weird turn professional.”
At this point, no one completely knows with certainty, but it still seems highly likely that Lee Myung-bak will nonetheless be elected president — and from Day One he will be carrying a weight no other president has had to carry during the first couple months of office.
Should that end up being the case, one may say that is what Korea may deserve by electing a president with a questionable background. But one may also say, this could be one last messed up legacy of a remarkable period of arguably misrule by incompetent cynics.
Whatever take one may have, I believe a legitimate question to ask is whether the Korean political process is maturing or retarding.
In any event, I think it is a fair statement that Korea has much more pressing issues than the ones that will consume a great deal of the country’s resources as the result of the upcoming investigation and surrounding politics. Unfortunately, at a time when Korea can ill afford to indulge in this sort of infighting, the die has been cast while the rest of the world continues on, with Korea, at least for the short term, being allowed to drift further behind.
As trite as it may be to say so, the Koreans are really their own worst enemies
Well, things didn’t go too well in Parliament yesterday. (Second time in a week) http://www.saharasamay.com/sam.....wsid=91175
The Fox News Flash Podcast had some good video from the clash as well.
Here’s the Fox story: http://www.foxnews.com/video2/.....p;&exp
A legitimate query indeed, to which the appropriate response is “maturing”, albeit slowly and fitfully, as long as one values the rule of law over the rule of violence. Before you guffaw, consider that in the not too distant past, this sort of tussle would have been sorted out in Korea in the streets, between pipe-wielding gangs of “citizens” or by bayonet-wielding shock troops. As imperfect as the legal mechanisms in Korea are, that the antagonists in this instance are taking legal recourse is a step forward - albeit a halting one that involves their derogating the very institution on which they are relying (by calling into question the Prosecution’s already-rendered (and persuasive) determination of the dispositive issues) and potentially weakening it (either through their own likely efforts to corrupt the process and, in any event, their unwillingness to abide by the results).
In this connection, Park Geun Hye might lose some support from the worst elements of her own party for having first surfaced the BBK affair, but for the long run she’s still looking good for having played by the rules and thereby nudged her party in the same direction.
Though the polls and the sentiment on the street still favor Lee Myung-bak, we really won’t know who will be the next President, of course, until after the ballots have been counted. What has changed in the last day or so is a palatable alienation by many people who have been thoroughly disgusted by the political process.
Since Sunday, I’ve been getting the impression that many people have traded in cautious optimism that may come with a change of government to an apathy and disgust that is largely targeted at the progressives, but also felt in no small measure towards the conservatives.
The National Legislature’s behavior of recent days has been a bit of a national embarrassment. No matter how solid or flaky the allegations against Lee Myung-bak’s background may be, they have achieved in at least some small measure of success. But if anything, people are even more thoroughly disgusted with the ruling regime and more anxious for a genuine change in leadership.
At the same time, many voters worry their first choice among presidential candidates may end up being unduly hamstrung and voting for Lee Myung-bak quite possibly may be a backward step towards greater corruption. Consequently, many are mulling over the idea of switching their vote to former GNP head Lee Hoi-chang.
The obvious dilemma with that that option is should enough people do so, they could conceivably split their camp into two large minority blocs and allow Chung Dong-young to win by a nose in an essentially a three-man race. And that is exactly what the majority of voters do not want to see take place. But it could happen. For the ruling camp, this time around, voter alienation and resulting apathy could be a positive factor in their attempt to hang on to power.
As I suggested a couple days of go, one should never underestimate the desperate. Those who are making allegations against Lee Myung-bak may well be representing the interests of others who may find themselves being grilled by Prosecutors Office with a change of government. The stakes of tomorrow’s election could be very much larger than many may realize.
Tom, my Korean acquaintances tell me that they do not think that the general voting public is that concerned with morality in this election and that they will support LMB, simply as a means to get something done with the economy and jobs.
The alleged “progressives”, as you put it, are generally disliked more so than anything else. I hope more than a few of them end up in the docket for their own immorality.
Tom, would you care to make a prediction? (please, speak into the mic).
I was just celebrating the end of Final Exams with my Junior/Senior students, most eligible to vote, and their opinions seemed to be unanimously similar to Elgin’s #25. Hell, if college kids don’t support the progressives, who the hell will? I’m expecting tomorrow’s only drama to be whether or not LMB tops 50%…
#25: My voting acquaintances’ opinions are the same as yours. And my sentiments about the so-called “progressives” who talk and act more often than I care to recall like neo-Nazis are probably the same as yours.
#26: My predictions aren’t worth a rat’s ass, but obviously LMB will likely win. Roh’s gang of hangers-on will try to clutch to power at every twist and turn, short of moments prior to when LMB is officially inaugurated. It will be ironic if we end up witnessing the so-called “democratic fighters” of yore trying to scupper normal democratic processes as they are forced by popular vote to leave office in 2008. I live near the Constitutional Court Building and I expect to see as much nonsense there in the coming weeks as we did during GNP’s botched impeachment attempt. In other words, the will of the people will likely prevail. The (theoretical, I hope) danger, however, is the majority may break apart into competing factions and thereby allow the greatly disfavored UNDP win by a simple plurality. (Am I making myself clear?)
Like crystal, thanks. Just wanted to make sure you weren’t actually saying a split right with a progressive win up the middle was the likely outcome.
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