Time for this week’s poll from Realmeter.
As expected, Lee Myung-bak’s getting off the hook in the BBK case has caused some of his lost supporters to come back, mostly at the expense of Lee Hoi-chang.
Chung Dong-young also regained all the support he lost when the elder Lee entered the race a month ago and is the clear front-runner among progressives. So I think we can now officially call this a two-man race. Lee will face increasing pressure to drop out over the next two weeks.
This development will also put a lot more pressure on Moon Kook-hyun to drop out and endorse Chung. However, don’t expect every Moon supporter to automatically switch to the United New Democratic Party candidate. Just as Lee Hoi-chang’s collapse helped both candidates, Moon’s will boost both. My guess is that a Moon departure would boost Chung by 3% and Lee Myung-bak by 2% with another 1% going to the Democratic Labor Party’s Kwon Young-ghil. After all, the reason Moon’s supporters were attracted to him is that they did not like Chung as the progressives’ standard barer.
Speaking of Kwon Young-ghil, he also made a bit of a jump this week and is within striking distance of the 8-10% that I think he is capable of getting this time around.
The numbers:
- Lee Myung-bak 46.7% (up 5.5% from last week’s poll)
- Chung Dong-young 19.8% (up 4.2%, moved from 3rd to 2nd)
- Lee Hoi-chang 11.9% (down 10.7%, moved from 2nd to 3rd)
- Kwon Young-ghil 6.1% (up 2.6%, move from 5th to tied for 4th)
- Moon Kook-hyun 6.1% (down 1.8%)
- Rhee In-jae 0.8% (down 0.3%)
- Other/Undecided 8.5%
BTW, the Realmeter poll has fewer undecideds than most polls I have seen.
Half of this poll was taken before the prosecutors’ report on Lee Myung-bak came out and half after, so the full effects of the report will not be known until we see another few polls.
The poll reporting black out starts next Wednesday, so I hope that Realmeter will some out with one more on Tuesday.
Other than that, I have nothing to add to the fine post the Marmot did yesterday.
Sphere: Related Content
8 Comments
“So I think we can now officially call this a two-man race.”
Very generous of you to say so.
Yes, it is.
To make it seem more arrogant, just pretend that I was using the royal “we.”
snarkiness is next to godliness
Here’s a video (in Korean) that shows each campaign’s reaction to the BBK-is-bullshit announcement. It’s hilarious, and Na Kyeong-Won, a.k.a the hottest politician ever, is in it!
I can’t decide whether Kwon Young-ghil or Rhee In-Je is more deserving of a punch in the mouth.
I had a good laugh when I read this diatribe from the Chosun Ilbo, regarding Erica Kim, et. al:
The record of sentencing here does not seem support such a comment. Perhaps the authorities would make an exception in this case.
poll black out?
Korea is indeed morally superior than America.
American media also tends to preshape voter turnout and voter choice by clearly biased, propaganda-ish tv programs, especially concentrated during November.
I recall, PBS, NPR news were running wild on broadcasts relating to Warren G. Harding, US isolationism, etc during election time.
this poll black out, blog black out, etc proves that Korea is morally superior.
I think I’ll drink for that.
those of you who think BBK was a fixed deal by Gum-chal.
I say, no way.
Roh still sits in the blue house. If anything, Gum-chal would have done everything possible to convict, Lee, force a fight between Chung and Lee Hoi Chang, and go full force with Lee Hoi Chang’s weakness of all weaknesses. Several. Both his sons never went to goon dae still, and people did deliver boxes of cash to him.
But, Korea is so morally superior, that even Gum-chal has decided not to convict Lee without evidence.
There was no evidence. It was a con-man’s libel and slander against a business man.
Kim won’t leave Korea anytime soon.
It’s pretty much a given that head positions in Gum-chal will be replaced with Lee’s chosen ones.
Yet, these morally superior men did the right thing.
Indeed, future President Lee, would you believe it if the Book-Joseon Gum-chal announced Lee Myung Bak not guilty, Senior Chung?
of course, PBS and NPR were trying to say Bush is like Warren G. Harding.
at this point, Bush has had way too much effect on the world to say that.
the liberals are wrong.
One Trackback
[...] of those candidates, Chung, lags in third place, at less than 15%. [Update: or, according to this, second place at 20%.] If the election results reflect those poll numbers, it would mean such a [...]