The Marmot’s Hole

It’s official — prosecutors have cleared Lee Myung-bak of allegations linked to the BBK financial scam.

Nevertheless, a leaked note — or supposedly a leaked note — in which Kim claims prosecutors offered to go light on him if he testified favorably for Lee will ensure the scandal won’t go away immediately. Not that it matters — the election is just 14 days away, and a Dec 1 poll put Lee at 40%, more than doubling support for the No. 2 guy, Lee Hoi-chang (19.2%), and the No. 3, Chung Dong-young (14.6%). Lee’s a runaway freight train that cannot be stopped — at this point, he could probably pay his respects at the Yasukuni Shrine and still get elected.

This article in today’s Hankyoreh shows us why, at least partially. Voters in their 40s living in the capital region (i.e., Seoul and its surrounding cities) are solidly pro-LMB, with 45.3% supporting the former Seoul mayor (compared to 44.2% in the capital region, and 40.2% nationwide), and what’s more, nearly 70% have no intention of switching to another candidate, and they’re planning to vote in comparatively high numbers (according to a Dec 1 poll by the Hani and Research Plus). When asked how they would determine whom they’d vote for, 50.6% said “drive,” as opposed to 23.6% who said, “ethics.” Compare this to 2002, when only 21.6% of those in their 40s said “drive,” while 42.4% said “ethics.”

Obviously, this tends to favor a corruption-plagued guy whose nickname is “Bulldozer.”

Interestingly, Seoulites in their 40s were a major base of support for Roh Moo-hyun in 2002. The real estate and education issues have really killed that support, however, and many of Roh’s supporters are now firmly behind LMB.

Just in case you care, according to a Dong-A Ilbo—Korea Research poll, the only region LMB is not leading in is — you guessed it — Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces, where Chung Dong-young is leading with 40.8% support. LMB commands just 11.1% in that region, although I believe that’s a lot for a GNP candidate down there.

At any rate, Chung Dong-young and Moon Kook-hyun are reportedly moving closer to forming an alliance, with Moon proposing a one-on-one debate to determine who would represent the alliance in the upcoming election. Personally, I like Moon — and you know what I think of Chung — but I just can’t see Chung’s ego letting him step aside even if Moon managed to win the debate.

Other minor candidates and notables and picking sides now, too. Sim Dae-pyong of the People First Party lent his support to independent conservative Lee Hoi-chang, former justice minister Kang Keum-sil expressed her support for Chung Dong-young, and independent lawmaker and Hyundai son Chung Mong-joon joined the GNP and expressed support for LMB. Like I said, I really don’t think any of this matters, but it’s kind of fun to watch, nevertheless.

The only thing, in this humble pundit’s opinion, that could possibly trip up Lee at this point is Park Geun-hye suddenly switching sides. Which, I should point out, is never outside the realm of possibility. That being said, she’s been a good soldier for Lee so far, and I don’t see that changing, especially with LMB’s numbers where they are.