There she is. She’s been sitting around since Goh Kun dropped out of the race a year ago and has been impatiently tapping her toe ever since the GNP convention in August. Almost everyone (including yours truly) told her that her services were not needed just yet but it looks more and more like her time has come.
The fat lady is about to sing.
There is no major change in this week’s poll from Realmeter:
- Lee Myung-bak 41.2% (up 1.6% from last week)
- Lee Hoi-chang 22.6 (up 2.2%)
- Chung Dong-young 15.6% (down 1.0%)
- Moon Kook-hyun 7.9 (down 0.8%)
- Kwon Young-ghil 3.5% (up 0.7%)
- Rhee In-jae 1.1% (down 0.5%)
- Other/Undecided 8.1%
Even the ongoing BBK scandal hasn’t stopped the MB juggernaut. Folks remember Roh Moo-hyun’s rise from 8% in 2002 but by this time in the campaign, he had been in the lead at least twice.
If memory serves, there is a blackout on poll reporting one or two weeks before election day, so this could be our last poll.
BTW, the cross tabs tell a few interesting stories.
- Lee Myung-bak leads among voters in their 20s with 27.2% while the old man at the club, Lee Hoi-chang, is second with 25.3% and Moon Kook-hyun is third at 18.5%
- MB is way ahead among all other age groups.
- 57.7% of Democratic Party supporters plan to vote for one of the two leading conservative candidates. This suggests a future roll for the Democrats as a moderate conservative party that Jeolla folks could bring themselves to vote for. They won’t have much room for growth but at least they wouldn’t have to get stuck in merger talks before next spring’s general assembly elections.
UPDATE: Before anyone else calls me on it, I should point out that subsets of polls (such as age groups in this one) have a larger margin of error than the main poll. In other words, they are less likely to be accurate.
Sphere: Related ContentRelated Posts
- Presidential poll of the week: It’s Lee v. Lee
- This week’s presidential election poll (and some predictions)
- Presidential poll of the week: Lee Myung-bak still going strong
- Presidential poll of the week: Lee Hoi-chang hits a wall… then does a flip and lands face-first
- Polling report of the week: The fat lady is here (and other election news)
12 Comments
hey king baeksu, you wanna lead us off here?
I did not want to mention a thing about all this, rather I was waiting for Andy’s update.
I still hope that Mr. Moon can best Chung Ding-dong since he is really a better candidate than most anyone else, especially Mr. snake.
It is interesting that we have not yet seen a post mortem of the presidency of Comrade Roh and they Keystone Commies. Of what Comrade Roh promised, what did he deliver?
-A new capital. Nixed from the outset
-”Cheabol Reform?” They are more powerful than ever.
-Welfare state? Didn’t happen.
-New politics? His own party fell apart.
-”A new relationship with Washington?” Well, America closed a lot of bases and Korea got to buy a lot of American hardware.
Some saviour.
I wouldn’t bring out the Fat Lady just yet:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/ww.....14678.html
I still think Lee’s going to win — BIG — but the prosecutors haven’t released their findings yet, and we still have to watch what Geun-hye will do.
Well, the fat lady is definitely singing some wrong notes. I think the key may be wrong — Park supporter quites GNP for independent (Lee) (http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2883359)
and my man goes on to say:
Ouch!
Cmm, I just have one comment regarding the present front runner, Lee “I’m Marilyn Manson’s long-lost father” Myung-bak.
The main argument I seem to keep hearing in his favor is that he achieves results, especially in the economic arena, and that that trumps his many alleged ethical transgressions. In other words, the end seems to justify the means.
According this kind of absurd and frankly nihilistic moral logic, South Koreans could just as easily hire a ggangp’ae leader from Cholla or Yongdungp’o as their next president, as long as he gets the economic job done by any means necessary.
Or, to put it another way, Tony Soprano would have been a better U.S. President than George W. Bush because he was a better businessman, right?
If Lee Myung-bak gets enough votes to become South Korea’s next president, despite his obviously dodgy past in both his personal and public life, it shall indeed be a dark day for South Korean democracy.
Is this sorry situation really the legacy of Kwangju?
Absolutely shameful.
12 different electoral posters went up overnight in my apartment block. I’ve never heard of half of the candidates. What would motivate the lesser known ones to run? It’s not as if they have a chance of winning.
“Cmm, I just have one comment regarding the present front runner, Lee “I’m Marilyn Manson’s long-lost father” Myung-bak.”
He does look a bit like him…minus the makeup, the monochromatic contact lenses and the bondage gear, that is.
One must really wonder about Park Gun-hye’s spineless support for Hanara and Lee Min-bak.
Hanara has botched the job of good government for so many years before now (thus enabling the rise of the last two administrations) that her statement is difficult to fathom — the problem has *been* the party itself and still is. More than a few of her supporters have defected to Lee Hoi-chang’s side.
Chung Ding Dong is not yet defeated. With solid Jolla Commie block votes, he can be the next president of Korea.
He is very close to Lee MB in the real vote counts. Commies lie when asked by reporters but on the day of election they will vote for Chung singing Commie songs.
Lee HC’d better look for a mouse hole to hide when Chung wins this election. He caused LMB to lose by splitting the conservative votes.
It is very close election between LMB and Chung DingDong Commie.
Ummm, IMHO, you are looking down the large end of the telescope Baduk. It is the Hanara Party that would have caused a win for Chung because of the feckless corruption that members of that party have allowed for so long, thus robbing the country and its future. It’s called greed and it is not a virtue.
If anyone is to blame, it is Hanara as a whole and if Chung should win, then Koreans, collectively, have no one to blame but themselves.
I completely agree with Baeksu (cringe) about Lee Myung-Bak looking like Marilyn Manson. I noticed it before, but couldn’t put my finger on it exactly.
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