In the Asia Times, Dr. Lankov has penned one of the best pieces on Korean reunification I’ve ever read. Period.
Be sure to read it. Be sure to read it NOW.
Among the points:
- Don’t hold you’re breath for “Chinese-style” economic reform in the North. It won’t happen.
- Despite resistance to reform, North Korea is crumbling from below. The Romanian endgame is a likely ending.
- Whether it likes it or not, South Korea must prepare for reunification.
- The major task is to smooth the transition, and to do this, a provisional confederation is a possible solution.
- No such confederation will be possible, however, until there is new leadership in Pyongyang.
- A 10-15 year confederation will give the North a chance to transform while softening some of the problems associated with immediate unification (i.e., mass cross-border movement, South Korean real estate speculation in the North, unresolved land ownership issues, etc.).
Some of Lankov’s points are bound to be controversial. His proposal that a general amnesty be granted for crimes committed under the Kim regime, for example, is sure to raise a few eyebrows. So will his call for generous affirmative action programs for North Koreans in South Korean universities. Nevertheless, read the whole thing carefully — lots of good observations and solution proposals.
NOTE: Just to add my own two cents:
- While I understand the need for a general amnesty for crimes committed under the Kims, I question whether such an amnesty will work as a practical and political measure. No amount of time is likely to protect Kim’s butchers from South Korean politics. Former South Korean president Chun Doo-hwan stepped down in 1987. Nine years later, he was sentenced to death for what he did in 1979-1980. South Korea’s ruling party, meanwhile, has spent the last five years forming committees to look into abuses committed during the colonial period and military dictatorship periods, and those ended over 50 years ago and 20 years ago, respectively. Given the enormity of what has transpired in the North, South Korean politicians and — seeing how they’ve been the primary target of South Korea’s recent historical naval-gazing — South Korean conservatives in particular are unlikely to give North Korean leaders a pass. Lastly, but probably most importantly, there’s likely to be great pressure from below in North Korea to see their tormentors punished. It would take great political will on the part of what is likely to be a weak and pressured transitional regime to hold off on bringing North Korea’s former leaders to account. On a positive note, however, should the current North Korean regime end in Romanian style, the question of what to do with Kim and Company might naturally work itself out in the first few hours of the revolution, allowing the North Korean masses to get their Fanon-esque cathartic act of violence done with right away.
- Quotas for North Korean students in South Korean schools — sounds reasonably in theory, but good luck getting the South Koreans to go along with that. Like in many societies, education is a hot-button issue in South Korea, and I can’t see the South Korean public standing by while precious admission spots in Seoul’s top universities are allocated to inferior North Korean students. Or, to put this another way, South Koreans are reluctant enough as it is to contribute tax money to reunification, so I can’t see parents happily sacrificing their child’s shot at the big time so Cheol-su from Nampo can go to Seoul National University.
- What the piece doesn’t delve into is the international aspect. An interim confederation would not exist in a vacuum. As is pointed out ad nauseum, the Korean Peninsula is surrounded by Great Powers like China, Japan, Russia and, by virtue of its presence, the United States. It would be interesting — and probably important — to speculate on how the geopolitics of the region might play into the political decision-making of the reunification process.
75 Comments
“Former South Korean president Chun Doo-hwan stepped down in 1987. Nine years later, he was sentenced to death for what he did in 1979-1980.”
What you seem to forget is that a few short months later he was a free man and has yet to pay a single won of his fines.
A fine and thought-provoding article. Thank you, Mr. Lankov.
“As a result, the North Korean populace will soon learn
about South Korean prosperity and will be less afraid of
the regime’s repressive machine.”
North Koreans already know of the South’s prosperity. They
are not afraid of the North’s government, they believe in it.
And a few months later was having lunch, along with Roh Tae-Woo [sentenced to life imprisonment by the same court], at the Blue House, invited by Kim Dae-Jung…
Robert, the points you mentioned in your notes were the one that also struck myself. Regarding general amnesty, I see how this would make some officials braver in advancing the “crumbling from below” right now, but I think it is most unfair to common North Koreans. Being from East Germany myself (albeit too young to speak from personal experience), it was one of the most bitter realizations for my parents to see the same officials back in their positions after unification. I’m not talking about high-rank officials, but more about head-masters, mayors, judges and the like.
I also think that the efforts for unification cannot be coped with by S-Korea alone, but need to be supported by the international community.
Excellent article, just for the way it brings up some of (far from all of) the many very complex issues that the approaching prospect of DPRK governmental-collapse presents to us — issues that are not much being publicly discussed in South Korea, to a stunning degree (if i’m wrong about that, point it out).
Each one of these issues, like ownership of land in the North (an SK-government friend of mine has been pointing out this problem to me, and its lack of prepared solutions, for 20 years!), deserves a book-length discussion; not to mention the questions of Chinese and Japanese involvements in different scenarios. Dr. Lankov does a good job of introductory overview. suitable for a newspaper.
As a dedicated long-term resident here, i do think about these kinds of issues pretty frequently — wondering for how long it’ll continue to be good or even tolerable to live here, when the Pyeongyang regime finally does go down — i stayed all through the 97-99 financial crisis, but…
What Dr. Lankov seems to forget is that the north won’t have to start from scratch, they have the added advantage of the chaebol that have already been set up in the south who only need unfettered access to the north to work the same majic they did in the south.
As Korea starts to go the way of Japan, these chaebols are looking continuously for cheap labor. Under a confederation, an economic investment scheme can be devised where industry can set up shop, and churn out dirt cheap products in thier own backyard, with out having to go through all the BS you do with the Chinese. These industries with be both the impetus and the funding to build the needed infrastructure.
Who cares about college quotas? Let the southern universities start/buy thier own colleges up in the North suitable for the standards required there.
…otherwise, let them build Kias!
Some rejoinders before I’ll run away for my next appointment.
TO ROBERT
You argue that the general amnesty promise is unlikely to be kept, I am afraid it is the case. However, I hope that when things settle down a little, it will the most notorious people whose punishment would become a political issue. Frankly, if some guards from the camp #22 will go to prison, I will not feel sorry, even though I will still probably publish few columns about value of unbroken promises. However, without amnesty these people will fight hard (and, without divulging to much in the open media, I can hint that they have made some preparations). This means many more deaths, Second, rough justice, revolutionary-type, should be minimized or, ideally, avoided. You know, people who become victims tend to be the least dangerous representatives of Ancien Regime.
Re affirmative actions. You know, my major worry (idealistic, perhaps) is that for a generation or two North Koreans will remain inferior, second-rate citizens. Without a sufficient number of holder of SKY degrees there will be no “new” North Korea elite. I know how crazy the ajumas will be. But this is important.
TO HARDYANDTINY (#3)
No, they do not. First, they know that South is doing better, but they do not realize how large the gap really is. Second, it is difficult to estimate which part of the population know even this. Majority in Pyongyang and borderland areas, but perhaps a minority elsewhere.
TO SANSHINSEON (#7)
The problem is: these issues (indeed, each one worth a book) are NOT discussed publicly. Believe me, since I read much on this subject. Few references in passing, and it’s all. It is “politically incorrect” to talk about NK failure, as if the silence will help to solve the problem.
TO CAPTBBQ (#8)
This is exactly what I am most afraid of (and want to avoid). Chaebol making the northerners “cheap labour” For ten or fivteen years, it might be OK. But not for generations.
Yes, that’s what I meant when I said “…issues that are NOT much being publicly discussed in South Korea, to a stunning degree…” A twisted “political correctness” is behind this avoidance, indeed — on the right, center and left.
Dr. Lankov, with all due respect, giving people blue collar jobs isn’t exploiting them. While those wages may be small to the employer, they won’t be to the employee, and in the end thats what matters.
And of course, you can’t keep people down, and no culture has yet to be relegated permanently to it at all. One generation empowered by industrialism will open the gate for the next to branch out into more educated job sectors. By that time the “global capitalist juggernaut”tm will be on to the next hopelessly underdeveloped country and the cycle will repeat…
…and I did enjoy your article.
Cheap labor is not a 10 or 15 year proposition. Chinese labor was absurdly cheap in 2002, now manufacturing outsourcers look at Vietnam first. In another few years it’ll be somewhere else.
And what are these cheap labor jobs all our chaebol are so hungry to fill, anyway? Virtually any job at any chaebol besides mopping the floor requires more skill and education than a Nork has. And any Nork that by some chance had a marketable skill or education would of course just hop the border to China and earn what their labor was worth.
SK could maybe enjoy 3 or 4 years of cheap textile factory output, but that’s about it. If China’s currency climbs in the meantime, then not even that, for any Nork with the strength to walk will go to China’s factories.
At the same time Chinese tycoons will want to set up factories in the North as well. Why would this new ‘Confederation’ be allowed to reserve the cheap labor pool just for SK companies? China’s influence in the North would swamp the South’s in no time.
Herein lies I think the chief omission of the article, and that is the assumption that the confederacy would actually rule the North’s people. Perhaps it could keep the DMZ border closed to Nork refugees, but it would never keep the Chinese border closed. Ask youself, would you, as a Nork, stay there for 15 years if you could cross to China, and from there to anywhere else in the world? Why would you hold on for 15 years waiting for South Korea to be ready for you?
Of course planning is good, but the economic differences across that border are just so great, it can hardly be anything but chaos and pain when the regime falls.
Dr. Lankov,
I have two questions regarding unification and your proposals for a confederation between North and South Korea.
First, while it may be easy to say the border must be maintained and the flow of refugees from North to South slowed, what realistic options would the South have in restraining that flow? In a country where, as you made clear, the average per capita income is from 1/15th to 1/40th the South Korean norm, the economic incentives for most North Koreans to migrate and live even marginal lives in the South will be enormous. Especially considering the tiny distances at issue - a man could easily walk from Wonsan or Hamhung to the DMZ within a month or a couple weeks - it seems obvious that millions of ordinary North Koreans will make the entirely rational decision to move south and take a shot at a better life. This would clearly be disastrous for South Korean society. Higher crime rates, massive unemployment, and social unrest would be the immediate consequences.
Short of the use of military force and the maintenance of the DMZ as a heavily militarized border there don’t seem to be any realistic options on the table to stop these refugees from moving south. Do you see any other way?
Second, while the dangers of allowing Southern carpetbaggers and Chaebol to move North and squeeze the Northerners from their land are obvious (as you said the issue of resentment and a second class existence for North Koreans) there is nothing North Korea will need more than investment - whether from American, Chinese or South Korean individuals and corporations. Regardless of what is done with property rights and land sales, the economy will be dominated by outsiders. This will be almost unavoidable. How would a balance be struck between the need for FDI and giving the North Koreans a realistic controlling stake in their economy?
Corpy,
Would a Russian know what a carpetbagger would be?
Hey, are you saying a Russian wouldn’t know who Hillary Clinton is?
“I also think that the efforts for unification cannot be coped with by S-Korea alone, but need to be supported by the international community.”
By international community, is there any doubt that the US will and will be expected (by Koreans and others) to take the lead overall and step in with the chequebook(s) handy.
And good points, Linkd.
to WangKon936, #13
WangKon, be surprised! Pretty much every college-educated Russian knows who Lincoln is. And if said Russian majored in history, s/he will know a lot about carpetbaggers and Reconstruction. As a matter of fact, world history, esp. European and American history, has been taught very well in Russian schools - a lot of teaching hours, great detail. I do not know any other country where “foreign history” was taught so well - or, at least, in such quantities. This is partially side-effect of “Marxisation” of the school system in the 1920s, and partially an old tradition going almost to Peter the Great’s times.
to Corpy Carly #14
Re migration. I am afraid you are correct. However, the “the maintenance of the DMZ as a heavily militarized border” will of limited use, since Korean soldiers will not shoot at the North Korean defectors (and if they do, there certain to be a public outcry). And even landmines will instantly become controversial. So, the flood will happen. And this is why I believe that confederation or any kind of special legal regime in the North will help to mitigate the disaster. It makes legal border control measures easier. It will also help to execute other policies designed to keep North Koreans in place. For example, in this article, due to space constraints, I mentioned “land rent system” proposal only in passing, but the land rent system might become such an incentive. The idea in brief: for ~10 years the farmers will have the distributed land not as property, but on condition of “free rent”. Then the land will be made their property, but only if the would-be owner actually worked the land for the entire length of this period. This will make people less willing to come South. For the first year or two it might even make sense to keep the PDS (public distribution system) – again on conditions that you receive rations only in your place of residence or, perhaps, elsewhere in the North.
But let’s be frank: unification will be a disaster for the South – at least, in short-term, since long-term effects might be benefitial. And I am not talking about preventing disaster, only about mitigating it.
Re FDI: investment should be ecouraged. The arable land and living houses are the only exception, but very important one!
The issue of domination. Alas, you are correct. The new economy will be owned almost exclusively, by outsiders, largely South Koreans. Carpetbaggers will flood the country, too. The palliative measure will be creation of the new North Korean elite – this is why affirmative actions are so important. Not only in the university admissions, but also with employment (some quotas of the locals at the managerial positions for the companies operating in the North, etc.). By the way, these policies are likely to create another issue: the “new elite” will consist largely, if not exclusively, from the scions of the Kims’ officials. This is why I believe that large-scale training of defectors is of such paramount significance, to create another layer of future elite which will be opposed to the old system and, to some extent, free from its shortcomings.
But once again: this is not a perfect solution. There is not perfect solution. Alas.
The South has an ageing population and with a whole bunch of pension headaches in the post. Pensions payments are set to increase significantly to support more retirees than those in the work force.
Do we know much about the deomographic make up of the North? One would assume a lower life expectancy and a more even age distribution. Could the south exploit the new northern workforce to help the burden of the ageing population who have no replaced themselves?
TO #17
We have a very reliable data, even if somewhat old, on the NK population, since in the early 1990s the NK government invited US experts to help with census and provided them with wealth of data. The NK officials tried to doctor the books, hoping to hide the size of their huge military, but in the demographics such manipulation is difficult, so the real picture was easily reconstructed. See early works by Eberstadt who was one of those experts. So, the short answer to your question is: yes, the population is younger, but the difference is not as large as one might expect. The TFR in NK is ~2.1, and life expectancy is in the mid-60s. So, it will help, but will not make a large difference. To complicate matters further, the NK population is very unhealthy.
Lankov,
“By the way, these policies are likely to create another issue: the “new elite” will consist largely, if not exclusively, from the scions of the Kims’ officials.”
You are damn right. These Kims will even go underground at first but will emerge as the leader of entire Korea!
Just like ex-KGB officers running Russia, former NK-military people will not just disappear. They will form an underground gang so powerful that nobody in SK will be able to fight off.
NK will rule. Kim Jongil will rule.
Unification will lead to disaster, murder, poverty and loss of freedom.
When China joins in, Korea is over. Kapoot! Disapper from the face of the earth.
Koreans will be shipped to Uzbekistan and Kazakstan. Koreans will speak Chinese and become a part of Chinese minority.
Slaves.
@ #16 Dr. Lankov,
Among a series of bad and worse choices the land rent system you refer to sounds like one of the least bad. Of course, it would only apply to a fraction (assuming the 65/35 urban/rural divide survived the famines) of the total NK population. Tying these people to some kind of tangible property investments would certainly provide an, if not the only, incentive to remain in the North.
I also couldn’t agree more with the need to educate and train the current generation of defectors. There’s probably no other investment the US Govt. could make in the future of Korea that would provide as good a return as a cadre of well educated, worldly (and hopefully pro-US) North Koreans who could legitimately take up leadership positions in a post-Kim government. Perhaps someone out there could free up some of the unspent millions authorized by the NKHRA and put them to use in such a program….
Also, do you know of the group 성통만사? They’re the only defectors I knew of who were actively organizing themselves for the post-KJI future. I’d be curious to know if there are other similar defector associations out there.
Dr. Lankov,
My apologies sir! I was educated in the U.S. where we do a very poor job of educating the population about general world history. Most Americans don’t even know what carpetbaggers are!
Interesting that you come to this blog. I actually met one of the foremost experts on Parhae/Balhae history, a German professor who actually did his PhD dissertation on said North East Asian kingdom on here. It was pretty cool. It’s amazing who stumbles onto this site.
I’m very familiar with Peter the Great’s reign, which would have been very different if it wasn’t for the early influence he got from the German immigrants living in Moscow. Robert K. Massie is one of my favorite historical authors.
TO Corpy Carly, #16
I know. I lobby hard for these policies (education for defectors), both with US officials (no success so far) and SK officials (moderate success). If somebody in this blog will be in position to make noises, make these noises, too. I do not know how much time we have left, but it’s never too late to start breaking. It’s better to hit a wall at 45 miles an hour then at 60 m/h.
Re 성통만사. To my discredit, never heard of it. Just googled it, found their site, and will have a look right now.
TO WangKon936, #22
No need for apologies. Frankly, the over-emphasis on the world history in Soviet/Russian curriculum is sort of anomaly, but this is the type of anomaly I like! And I think many people read the Hole, many more than even Marmot himself thinks. I have had interesting experiences when things I said in my blog (in Russian, a reliable secret language, one assumes) were sometimes cited by people under very surprising circumstances.
It’s said U.N. General Secretary Ban checks it every morning.
World history correct, U.S. history wrong. The Civil War and its immediate aftermath is generally well covered, and I’ve never met an adult American who didn’t know what a carpetbagger was if the subject was broached. Perhaps the system isn’t the blame in your case.
He does? If so, we really ought to be more diligent about running the guy down.
A hearty “thank you” to Prof. Lankov for a superb piece which has engendered still more searching thought from concerned readers on the transition in northern Korea from the Kim family regime to whatever might come thereafter. Is the experience of the Kuomintang on Taiwan in the 1950s, when they substantially dispossessed the island’s native gentry of their land holdings for redistribution, but recompensed them with shares or bonds in nascent industrial enterprises, a possible partial model for solving the claims on arable northern land by southern residents whose families were dispossessed of their holdings in the north in 1946?
Dr. Lankov,
As always, an excellent article that sets the standard for debate on North Korean issues.
Like many above, I don’t see North Korea’s elite making the changes needed for a “provisional confederation,” and don’t find the amnesty mentioned very realistic for Korea (thinking of the ROK government’s recent decision to confiscate the land of the descendents of suspected collaborators, etc.). But these are areas that I agree still should be considered, just in case.
While I agree that neither of the Koreas wants reunification at this time (and neither does China, Japan, or Russia), I think the article doesn’t fully explain the extent of the Kim cult, which may not be obvious to non-Korea watchers.
Finally, the importance of nuclear and conventional WMD proliferation was not really covered (important as U.S. or ROK military intervention could trigger fighting or even war), nor was the likelihood of an East Asian arms race stemming from a nearly (or literally) bankrupt “Korea” (with South Korean leadership) worried about Chinese territorial designs, and unfounded paranoia about Japan. For such a Korea, nuclear weapons would be a cheap and perhaps irresistible enticing option.
I hope South Korean policy makers have been busy in some secret bunker devising plans for when North Korea falls (e.g., planning/training for ROK govt officials to go to various North Korean areas to maintain local govt control and facilitate the short-term influx of aid to help prevent some of the longer-term uncontrolled migration issues described), but fear it’s not so. I have the feeling that when North Korean falls, only the degree of chaos will differentiate the north from the south.
Thank you to Professor Lankov for his article and to Robert for providing this forum - it’s a unique opportunity for dialogue on interesting topics like this one. I think the article does a great job of addressing issues that would arise with reunification, unfortunately I just don’t think that will happen any time soon. Social science predictions are by their nature untestable - it hasn’t happened yet. If we assume, as the article does, that economic interests are what drive Korean and Chinese foreign policy, than reunification seems possible, but I would argue that in this case traditional security concerns trump economic interests, particularly here in N.E. Asia, where the Chinese-US rivalry has replaced old Cold War divisions.
Basically, the Chinese security interest in N. Korea as a buffer state are all that really matters. If Kim Jong Il dies, China will make sure that a China-friendly successor takes power, whether it’s one of Kim’s sons, members of the military, or Worker’s Party cadres. And, whoever comes into power in NK in the event of Kim’s death, likely some faction within the ruling elite, will also seek out Chinese support to preserve independence from South Korea and the US.
A pro-S Korean/US regime coming to power in NK could only be produced by some type of organized, popular uprising by opponents of the regime. Power in NK is so centrally controlled, and dissent punished so severely, there is really no autonomous civil society, no outside groups ready to vie for power, even with a Kim death. As Professor Lankov points out in the article, NK has exceeded the Stalinist ideal when it comes to repression, and total control of its citizens. The inevitable result is the god-like status enjoyed by Father and Son Kim.
Let’s assume Kim dies, one of his sons fails to take power, and despite the lack of access to outside media or any autonomous civic organizations, the populace turns against the remnants of the Kim regime clinging to power. Well, we’ve just seen in Myanmar that a very unpopular military junta has maintained power thanks to Chinese support. Myanmar had alot of democratic advantages NK lacks - it experienced democracy for 10 years, had an elite schooled in liberal democratic principles under British colonial rule, and powerful autonomous Buddhist organizations able to mobilize thousands of supporters against a very unpopular authoritarian regime - yet the Myanmar military had the resources, thanks in large part to the Chinese, to purchase the loyalty of military commanders and other key elite. The NK elite would likewise be able to secure control with Chinese assistance, despite any unpopularity.
And, actually, even if a democratic revolution defies all the odds and somehow succeeds in NK, and popular opinion of NK citizens matters, would they really want to forfeit independence for a very unequal union with SK, to become second class citizens in a united Korea vs. maintaining sovereignty with Chinese backing? I’d bet if given a choice, they’d choose the latter, and who could blame them.
So, assuming a Kim death and rise of a new NK regime where power is less centrally held, without a cult of personality, maybe authoritarian party rule or military rule, I’d bet that the new NK leadership, no longer fearing that Kim would be exposed as a mere mortal by the open flow of information, and with a broader interest to increase national power and wealth, would turn to the Chinese economic reform model after all.
At least that’s my prediction!
Yours is an excellent article Dr. Lankov. It seems that some of John Bolton’s predictions may indeed come true then, specifically the nasty ending for a certain someone that he predicted.
dokdoforever,
“Basically, the Chinese security interest in N. Korea as a buffer state are all that really matters.”
I think China has more ambition in Korean peninsula. When the US Forces pull out, which will be within 3-5 years (Hilary?), China will use Korea. Korea will be returned to China as a vassal state (China gave up Korea because it has lost China-Japan war at the beginning of the 20th century and now China wants it back.)
China already owns Kim Jongil and NK.
Once China has Korea back, Korea will be used to start a war with Japan. China will not show it, secretly supply Koreans with arms and incite the populace to fight. You know how Koreans feel about the Japanese.
When Koreans get defeated by Japan (Japan maintains mighty Navy and AirForce), China will act as a peace-maker together with the US.
Koreans will be chopped into about 10 different colonies and sent to Tibet, VietNam, and other remote place.
Korean culture and language will disappear. Koreans will disappear by inter-marrying with locals.
Kangnam apartments will be inhabited by the Chinese from Shanghai.
No more Koreans.
Richardson,
I am glad that you have brought up the military side of this whole thing.
When NK collapses, Chinese Army will be in PyengYang within a week and NKs will celebrate and cheer for the Red Army.
SKs will not even have a chance.
When some SK generals want to move up, the US will stop them. And, I think they should stop.
Nobody wants KoreanWar2. With no US Forces’ support. Korea going against the mighty China will be a suicide.
Anti-American sentiment means pro-China stance whether Koreans realize it or not.
How can a country can be so stupid? It is kicking the only friend in the butt. How long can a country so stupid last?
For those who don’t know, Korean War was started by Kim IlSung who got support from both Russia and China.
When NKs came down, the US reluctantly joined in. I personally think it was McArthur’s private war.
SKs and the US Forces got rid of the most NK soldiers. The war was almost over. Korea was united.
Then, suddenly, Chinks moved into Korea. They had no right. They had no reason. The Chinese are ugly SOBs.
At the last moments of Korean war, the US had lost a will to fight. And, it was Korean soldiers(some highschool students) fighting the Chinese. It was a war between Korea and China.
Now the Korean Commies say different but it is true. Korean War was the fight between Korea and China.
Korean Army fought like mad dogs in 1953 just to gain a few more miles from dirty Chinese invaders. But, president Truman, that penny-pinching SOB, fired McArthur and called a cease-fire on Korean peninsula.
This eventually led to VietNam.
Now you know the whole story about Korean War.
i agree w/ baduk. Chinese are no good.
Americans are now documenting themselves to be 2nd to none in the instant bang, but unremarkable in any war that lasts long.
the Germans, Russians, Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese, and even the Koreans have shown a better determination to fight the long war. Maybe it’s because hippies and unrestrained freedom of press was not an issue for the other countries.
and the French have lost every single combat of any significance since World War 1.
The Spanish decline was earlier than that.
the British regained their pride w/ the Falkland islands.
While notions of confederation are often put forward to facilitate national integration, they never really work. I can’t think of one that has in the last 100 years. I certainly can’t see it happening in the Korean context.
Re: China. I think that actually there are three scenarios for North Korea in, say, year 2020. First, collapse (the topic of the article). Second, survival of essentially unchanged Kim Family regime, assisted by aid from China and SOuth (it cannot live on its own, and never really could). Third, a Chinese-dominated North. Either as a result of Chinese intervention to end a post-Kim chaos or a result of some China-sponsored coup.
To Kunsanpcv (#36)
The confederation I am talking about is not meant to last forever. Just a form of packaging for transitional period. Other forms of packaging might be used, like, say, “Unification Treaty” which will still stipulate that for some time North Korea will legally remain a special area whose inhabitants will be treated differently in some situations.
Sure, but I would argue that some scenarios are far more likely than others. Let’s recall the reason for regime change in Central and Eastern Europe - the fall of the Soviet Union. In contrast, N.K.’s main patron state, China, is growing stronger by the year - economically, politically, and militarily. NK has always tried to play its patrons off against one another, and that explains diplomacy with SK. But NK would never stray too close to SK for fear of risking its sovereignty through reunification. That’s not a problem with the China alliance. So, with a healthy and growing China, reunification remains a distant dream.
A. Lenkov wrote in his article: “A report.. states that if unification happened in 2015, it would cost US$858 million to raise North Korean per capita income to half of the South Korean level..”
But I think it must be US$858 billion!
K. Times wrote last month (10.28) following: “Expenses for the reunification of the two Koreas will range from $850 billion and $1.3 trillion if it comes between 2015 and 2040..”
Lankov
In response….
It’s human nature. Thousands of North Koreans have been leaving North Korea to find a more prosperous life in China, while still remaining proud of their North Korean nation/heritage. The knowledge of South Korea’s prosperity does not change a North Korean’s desire to keep Korea like North Korea. It’s a mistake to believe that by simply showing North Korean people how wealthy the South Koreans have become will then somehow equate to less fear of, what you call, “the repressive machine”. They ARE North Koreans and THEY LOVE THEIR country, North Korea. That’s how the world works; people love their country.
In my opinion the best thing to do is accept North Korea, as it is, open up all avenues, and slowly change it.
To hardyandtiny
I know. This works well in China (Chinese love their country - and they also know that they cannot join the US as its 51st state). In the North, it will be different (well, I think it will be), because South Korea is, above all, KOREA. So, it will be difficult, or even impossible to mobilize nationalist/patriotic feelings, especially after decades of unending talks about unification as the supreme goal.
Re gradual evolution. I would also prefer gradual, Chinese- or Vietnamese-style reforms. Definitely. It would be much better for the Southerners and somewhat better - perhaps - for the Northerners as well. But I think that such reforms are unlilkely to happen - or rather, once started they will result in a complete collapse in a mater of years. The article is not about what I consider the best option, it is about what appears to be the most probable option (well, another probable option will be a pro-Chinese reformist government in Pyongyang).
Why would someone who risked being shot in order to flee across the border to a country where he is most unwelcome and risks being tortured and executed upon repatriation want Nort Korea to stay the same?
The largest group of illegal immigrants in the US hail from Mexico. They are extremely proud of their culture and history but not their government. The kids in my class tell me that their parents badmouth the Mexican government as corrupt.
Obviously, Mexicans aren’t indoctrinated with the cult of personality backed up by severe repression like the North Koreans, but by nature any North Korean who has left the country illegally is voting for regime change with his feet and at the risk of his life.
Loving one’s country is not the same as supporting the government that rules it. And remember that all Koreans still consider the two Koreas to be one country, Korea.
“The largest group of illegal immigrants in the US hail from Mexico. They are extremely proud of their culture and history but not their government.”
I think you’re right. It’s not about government. North Koreans are proud of their history and culture.
There is an intangible, emotional element among all the players except American players.
Lankov said the old, “If you see us, you’ll turn”
In one sense, Baduk is right - the anti-American forces in S.Korea are directly controlled and benefitting Chinese plans to dominate Korea.
No, Lankov is saying, “If you see the outside world and compare what you see with what you were taught and with the reality of North Korea, you’ll turn.” It’s not true for every citizen of a despotic regime who leaves his homeland, but it is true for many. Remember that the North Koreans Lankov is referring to are ones who left illegally, who by their own government’s laws are traitors. They’ve already turned.
Sonagi, North Koreans are very proud of the North. They consider it to be the only real Korea, and see the Southerners as American lackies, who might be richer, but sold their Korean souls for American protection. Until democratization in the South they may have been right, considering how many of the South’s political, military, and economic elite were Japanese collaborators kept in place by US backing. The South still relies on the US military, its wealthy are the descendants of those collaborators, who still exercise clout in the GNP, and the South has corrupted the Korean language and culture by introducing all sorts of foreign words like ‘ice cream’ and ‘bra.’ Now the South is even diluting precious Korean blood by allowing us foreigners to live here and contribute to the Korean gene pool. The North and its citizens see themselves as a small state struggling against foreign (American) domination to preserve the true Korean identity. It’s hard to know how many in the North have grown disillusioned in the Cult of Kim, but they’ve developed a distinct national identity during the last 55 years and probably don’t want to give it up.
Looking at the number of nation states in the world during the last 100 years, it’s easy to spot a trend - far more regions secede and become new states than choose unification. Germany and Yemen are the outliers. It’s easy to understand why - once you enjoy the trappings of sovereignty, like your own military, currency, seat in the UN, etc, you don’t want to give that up. It’s hard to know if they realize it now in the North, but judging by the amount of discrimination shown by the class conscious S. Koreans toward the poorer Chinese Korean “chosun-jok” living here, N Koreans would quickly become the new Korean underclass with unification. In fact, the ones living here now already are. They complain of being discriminated against, having trouble finding a job, and having to hide their accent. Pscyhologically, assuming they have basic needs met, people might just be happier living in poverty surrounded by equally poor people, than in becoming just a little bit richer, but losing all social status or respect as the poorest guy in the neighborhood.
dokdoforever, your observation is very true.
Sadly, South Koreans don’t really want the North Koreans to hop over.
I blame Japan, because I have my opinions on how the Japanese army left Korea after the 2nd A-bomb. They had half a million men in Manchuria alone in August 1945. History records no notable battle or struggle.
“I blame Japan”
You always do. For everything.
@#45:
You are half-right. More than fifty years of separation under very different regimes and with very different development patterns has created two distinct Koreas. However, those North Koreans you speak of who think the South sold out are the ones employed, fed, and housed by the regime, not the refugees Dr. Lankov speaks of.
If Joseonjok in South Korea, some of whom are in the country illegally, get really fed up with discrimination against them (which does exist), they can always return to China. I haven’t heard that many do. The few Joseonjok I knew in South Korea weren’t 100%`happy but chose to stay for economic reasons.
# 45 and 46,
My goodness, it’s the crazy gyopo club. I won’t even begin to address the problems with # 45. Regarding # 46, if the Japanese Manchurian Army didn’t collapse the way it did, then there never would have been a North Korea in the first place.
Well, my disagreement with hardyandtiny (and dokdoforever) is clear.
They believe that North Koreans have acquired a distinct and strong feeling of their own national identity and, hence, their superiority in regard to “impure” Southeners. They also believe that this identity is strong enough to withstand the shock produced by full exposure to the South Korean life with its prosperity and individual freedoms.
I beleieve that such feelings, in spite of all efforts of Pyongyang propagandists who definitely want to promote them, are not internalized by a vast majority of the population. Only some members of the current elite might use this logic to justify their own privilleges, but even in their case the “pureness pride” is not strong enough. I believe that the sheer size of the income gap between two Koreas will overcome all these exercises in the “nationalist fundamentalism”.
It seems to be a rare case when a particular political argument can be solved eventually. We’ll know for sure within 10-20 years. If by 2020 we’ll see a still poor but growing and relatively stable North Korea (politically, a moderate dictatorship, Chinese-style) whose population - or at least its majority - will reject the South as corrupt and impure and strive hard to build a purely Korean developed society - well, this will mean that I am wrong now. But it seems I am not, as the current vogue for things Southern even among the elite testify. Anyway, let’s wait and see.
And why do they believe this? Has either lived in North Korea? Nope. So how the heck do they “know” what North Koreans think? Their ideas sound suspiciously like South Korean leftist rubbish.
This possibility: “by 2020 we’ll see a still poor but growing and relatively stable North Korea [that rejects] the South as corrupt and impure and strive hard to build a purely Korean developed society” becomes more probable with confederation, I would think.
In the case of any form of Northern-based self-government, any kind of regional autonomy at all, there exists a strong possiblity for old NK regime elites or the Chinese to influence that regime and develop exactly such an anti-SK mindset.
Expensive though it would be, for the South to just shoulder all the burden and take over seems to be the likeliest way to reduce the risk of fanning NK nationalism. And also of limiting a brain drain to China.
Sonagi, nobody “knows” exactly what North Koreans think, because we can’t go up there and take opinion polls, obviously. If we sample only people who run away, it’s clearly biased against the regime. If we rely on official pronouncements and discussions with NK officials, its biased in favor. It’s nearly impossible to have a candid talk with average North Koreans. I’ve talked to and read plenty of accounts of people who’ve been there, and it’s not as if they were really able to learn much about what average N Koreans truly think either. (I had a chance to visit Kaesung, but the trip was cancelled unfortunately). It’s interesting though, that some of the N Korean defectors want to go back, after experiencing life here.
At the moment, lacking access to outside media, the cult of Kim seems fairly stable. Confronted with reality, opinions could change.
However, it doesn’t take very long to create a unique cultural identity and then want independence to preserve it - look at Eritrea, a part of Ethiopia colonized by Italy for 50 years, Taiwan, a part of China colonized by Japan, East Timor, colonized by the Portugese - all now defacto independent.
And, the big assumption here is that N. Koreans will actually have the choice of walking south - only a possibility with the complete collapse of Kim’s elite, the Worker’s Party and Military, despite Chinese backing. My bet is that Chinese grease will keep the machine running.
“South Korean leftist rubbish”?
Hey Sonagi, go read your Korean history book before saying things like that. There’s plenty of historical evidence to support NK’s initial claims of being ‘more Korean.’ During the Japanese colonial period Kim Il Sung’s small band of guerillas were pursued by a Japanese Colonel Kaneyama (Kim Suk Won) who later became Brigadier in the S. Korean army, and he was only one of many more (Park Chung Hee, for instance). Japanese collaborators filled the ranks of S. Korea’s military, political and business elite.
So what? According to Brian Myers, they also filled the ranks of the NORK elite, and fare more extensively, during the early decades of relative economic success, and then were liquidated.
@#56:
So if nobody knows what North Koreans really think, then what was comment #48 all about?
This morning’s Washington Post features a front page story on the increasing number of North Koreans attempting to flee to the South and the various meanings of getting there:
“As More Take a Chance to Flee South, Routes for All Budgets”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....id=topnews
Sperwer, Myers is a North Koreanist with a PhD in literature, right? I’d be interested in reading where he writes that. Do you have the source?
Sonagi, nobody knows, but everybody has a hypothesis. The less you know, the more interesting theories you can construct.
@ #48 & 56;
You’re describing North Korea circa 1980, not 2007.
The impact of discovering just how prosperous South Korea is compared to North Korea is that it calls into question everything else they have been programmed with; if the government lied about that, what else have they lied about? Are the South Koreans really lackeys of the U.S. Imperialists? And so on.
Combined with the clear failure to fulfill basic obligations (food, healthcare, etc.) for coming up on two decades, that knowledge can be particularly potent.
Also, at this point, those with more knowledge of the outside world, outside the elite, are concentrated in the northern provinces of North Korea. Those in the southern provinces nearer the DMZ have some general awareness of prosperity in South Korea, but much less information. But it is slowly spreading.
While we can’t “know” with absolute certainly, we can get an idea from debriefing North Korean defectors. As you note, they are biased against the regime, which is where the art of debriefing comes to play. We “know” a lot more about opinions than you seem to allow for, even if it’s not to the level of Zogby.
Kim’s control seems stable; that does not necessarily equate to Kim’s cult being as stable, but more a function of military first and social control (information, travel, etc.). Two different things.
Overall, you don’t get the number of defectors to China that we’ve seen from a country enamored with itself.
Holy Gini coefficient, Lankov!
Seeing how the southerners frequently complain about the sharp divide between the rich and the poor here, and this is one of the more equitable capitalist countries around, that north-south divide will really be brutally conspicuous. Even the guy in the Matiz can participate in the gloat fest.
Perhaps the northerners will turn disillusioned once the lies of their society are exposed, or their beliefs may harden, making them more difficult to live and work with. And lord over.
Most interesting to me will be the behavior of the southerners if and when unification does happen. Will they embrace set asides in schools for northern kids? Will the rapacious head north to profiteer? Room salons the fastest growing business? How will the unified national assembly be comprised? More than a few wanna bees from the south go north and buy their election?
Won’t be surprised to see the country split once more. Not politically but emotionally.
Almost feel sorry for the Norks.
Good article, Dr. Lankov.
And it should be noted that while there are more options for getting out of North Korea, as detailed in today’s Washington Post story, it is still a very risky and expensive venture. For every “biased” refugee who makes it out, how many more dream of escape?
Let’s keep these immigration figures in perspective.
According to the Washington Post cited by Sonagi, last year 2,000 N Koreans migrated South, out of a population of about 20 million (1/10,000 or .01%). In comparison, in 2000, over 500,000 Mexicans migrated to the US, out of a population of 100 million (1/200 or .5%).
So, this is hardly a flood breaking apart the regime. And, according a recent Christian Science Monitor article, the North is increasing spending on propoganda (to 40% of the budget!) and beefing up security at the Chinese border, as are the Chinese. So, hardly a state of collapse. And let’s remember that the North weathered far worse conditions in the 90s, betrayed by both Soviet and Chinese patrons, struggling through famine, and the death of it’s only leader, Kim Il Sung. There were so many Western politicians and military leaders making statements with absolute confidence, like “it’s not a matter of if NK falls, but when.” That went on for a decade or so.
Now they have a very strong patron, China, behind them, who can easily bring an end to all of this migration if it ever really threatened the North’s stability.
Personally, I detest the type of regime they’ve created in Pyongyang and would be thrilled to see it go. But, I think we’ve got to be objective about the chances of collapse ore reunification.
Some of it is in his book on Socialist realism in NORK literature, which in part is a cultural history tracing the origins and distortions from the Stalinist model of the peculiar NORK version of socialist realism to the Japanese influenced and in many cases collaborating Korean literary figures of the colonial period. He cast the net wider in his lecture at RASKB lecture several months ago.
Lankov: “They believe that North Koreans have acquired a distinct and strong feeling of their own national identity and, hence, their superiority in regard to “impure” Southeners. They also believe that this identity is strong enough to withstand the shock produced by full exposure to the South Korean life with its prosperity and individual freedoms.”
Actually, I “believe” North Koreans are just like everyone else in the world; they love their country. It’s not a unique situation. It is you who believes North Koreans are a special case. You assume that exposure to wealth and individual freedoms matters to a North Korean.
North Koreans love North Korea, just as South Koreans love South Korea.
We could take down the entire DMZ and very few North Koreans would bother coming across. Across for what? A cell phone? Hot water? It’s 15 years now of this line of crap and they’re still not coming.
Maybe they don’t want to come to South Korea, maybe they like North Korea?
Is that okay?
“If you see the outside world and compare what you see with what you were taught and with the reality of North Korea, you’ll turn.”
What leads you to believe that people in North Korea will see the “outside world” and suddenly turn against their own nation? Nothing will ever convince a North Korean that North Korea is not the greatest country on earth. As a matter of fact, it is more likely a North Korean will look at South Korea and complain that it is no longer Korea.
It’s just your fantasy.
Sonagi: “However, those North Koreans you speak of who think the South sold out are the ones employed, fed, and housed by the regime, not the refugees Dr. Lankov speaks of.”
I’m sorry, I must have missed that point. Did he say that?
What do we know about people who live in North Korea? There are Cambodian farmers/refugees/city dwellers who went through hell and now love their nation, Cambodia. What leads us to believe North Koreans want to be part of modern South Korea after North Korean political revolution? Does change in North Korean government equal instant unification?
I don’t think Cambodia can aptly be compared to North Korea in this context. North Korean’s may love “North Korea” or the notion of a unified “Korea,” but knowledge of the outside could (as has in many cases) completely destroy faith in the regime, Kim Jong-il. Loving the country is not the same as loving the regime, though only some North Koreans are figuring that out or have/can do anything about it, for now.
I’ve spoken to defectors in South Korea, and read the accounts of others, that believe that when/if the non-elite North Korean’s are in fact exposed to the truth in large numbers, it will undermine the regime.
If you really do “‘believe’ North Koreans are just like everyone else in the world” then assuming, “that exposure to wealth and individual freedoms matters to a North Korean” follows - either they are like “everyone else” or they are not. But being lied to for decades also matters. At least that what I heard from the defectors I spoke to, and what I’ve been reading for the past decade with no convincing or credible counterevidence.
@#67:
How do you know what North Koreans want or do not want? How do you know that many would not flock south for a better life? According to the Pew Center, 40% of Mexicans would come to the US if they could. Now Mexicans are extremely proud of their country and the culture, but let’s face it - poverty sucks.
Your insistence upon speaking for 22 million people in a country you’ve never lived in is incredibly arrogant.
You must be trolling.
just for fun, check out Mr. Park’s movie, Joint Security Area.
They forget to mention Chinese Imperialism.
otherwise, a good movie.
Another distinction between NK’s situation today and the old E Germany is the Korean War, in which average N Koreans fought and died for the state they have today. E Germany, on the other hand, was almost entirely a Soviet creation. So, while Northerners may oppose the regime, may desire higher standards of living, political choice, and market reform, that doesn’t necessarily equate to a desire for unification with the South. The citizens of that country gave their lives to be independent, they may not willingly part with it.
19,31, 32, 33
No offense Baduk but youre clinically insane. What kind of fantasy world do you live in?
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Lankov on Reunification…
Dr. Andrei Lankov’s latest article on reunification is out and is as usual a must read. Some of the points he covers are:
While both Koreas say they want reunification, in reality neither is prepared for the costs to their side; loss of power for t…
[...] Unification Blues: a must read at Marmot’s and DPRK Studies. This is regarding unification challenges and speculation. SHARETHIS.addEntry({ [...]