Here are this week’s poll results from Realmeter:
- Lee Myung-bak 36.2% (down 15.9% from last week)
- Lee Hoi-chang 24.8% (new)
- Chung Dong-young 15.9% (down 2.7%)
- Moon Kook-hyun 4.6% (down 5.7%)
- Kwon Young-ghil 1.4% (down 2.5%)
- Rhee In-jae 1.1% (down 1.1%)
- Others/Undecided 16.3% (changed listing)
Lee Hoi-chang is doing his best to make me lose my pundit cool points. Just last week, I predicted that he would either choose not to run or would eventually drop out if he did. Now, not only is he in the race, he is running strong enough to have a real shot at the big brass ring.
However, I still think Lee will pretty quickly hit a ceiling in his support level and will eventually realize that his campaign is little more than a spoiler. A majority in a recent poll opposed Lee candidacy.
Back to the poll; Lee Myung-bak is clearly the big loser this week, although it may be another week or two (after things to settle down) before the real impact of Lee Hoi-chang’s candidacy can be determined. Interestingly, every other candidate also lost support, which would indicate to me that some voters are just mentioning Lee because he is a ‘new face,’ if you can call a two-time previous candidate that.
Lee Hoi-chang’s entry hurts Lee Myung-bak but is does not help Chung Dong-young. Even with two conservative candidates in the race, Chung would still have to get at least 35% of the vote to have a chance of winning, something I am not convinced he can do.
Lee Hoi-chang’s candidacy does give conservative voters an insurance policy in case their is more to the BBK case than meets the eye.
I had a bit of a brain fart while talking to a reporter yesterday when I said that Lee Hoi-chang had a political base in the Chungcheong provinces. In fact, he was twice the victim of progressive party strategies for winning there (in 1997 with a deal with local kingmaker Kim Jong-pil and in 2002 by buying votes with the promise of moving the capital there). However, he is likely to run on the People First Party ticket, which is based in the Chungdcheong region.
In other news, the Chosun reports that investors are still bullish on Lee Myung-bak shares.
A final thought: If Korea elects a president with only 35% of the vote, which is possible if Lee Hoi-chang stays in the race, we could see calls for amending election laws to include a French-style run-off system or an even more fun Louisiana-style primary.
17 Comments
Lee Hoe-Chang probably has more skeletons in his closet than those of all other candidates combined. I wonder what makes him think he will be get away with
I hope Park GH will stay on Lee MB’s side. But the problem is that right after the GNP primary ended, Lee MB’s key aides (especially Lee Jae-Oh) acted like an asshole to Park. If Park decides to dumb Lee MB, Lee MB has nobody to blame but his own idiotic supporters.
What a disappointment. After two primaries where the second place contenders from both major political parties agreed to back their parties’ winning candidate, old fashion “It’s gotta be me!” transparently egotistical politics has yet once more emerged – possibly at the overall detriment of the nation. This could be a serious setback for the political maturation of Korean democracy. For once, I had hoped for Korean politics to move forward to party politics from the personality-centric chaos of the past.
In my book, Lee Hoi-chang has struck his colors as being from the old school of sleaze politics – taking a page out of Kim, Dae Jung’s playbook by once denouncing running again and then reneging on that public pledge out of sheer cynicism. Lee may rationalize this current maneuver given DJ’s success, but Lee was head of his own party that conducted a relatively open primary, only to selfishly jettison it all for his personal greed.
He has done for the liberals what George McGovern did for the Republicans some 40 years ago. He has greatly increased the chances of his opposition of winning the next election. The Blue House probably can’t believe what good luck they now have.
The good news is that this has put some real clout in the hands of a classy, if vindictive, lady, Park Geun-hye. This will be a real test of her character. We should see whether she sticks to party principle, and rise above personal animosity created during the past primary. I think we will learn a great deal about what makes Ms Park tick in the coming week or two.
Regardless, Lee Hoi-chang really deserves to end up in the dustbin of history – not because of his political ambitions, but because of his willingness to sacrifice his supposed political principles – should he actually ever have any — as a conservative political party head for the sake of an old man’s unfulfilled political ambition.
I should have mentioned Park Geun-hye. Unlike Lee Hoi-chang, she is young enough to run in 2012 and thus has a political future to think about.
If Korea worked the way the United States does, a stand by Park Geun-hye on the principle that the party primary is a done deal and “conservative forces” should unite behind the party’s candidate would cement her stature as leader and make her odds-on favorite for the 2012 election.
But this country does not work that way. All politics is personality-centered. Even if she makes that stand, it won’t help her in future.
This is what is wrong with these old Korean Fuckups. Lee Hoichang may be nearing seventy but mental age of ten year old.
Fucking loser!
Actually the gap between Lee Myengbak and Chung DongYoung was not that deep. Jolla Commies all say that they do not blog-vote but they do. They are Commies.
98% will vote for Chung. Kim DaeJung has put his approval on Chung.
Lee “Fucking” HoiChang did it. He singlehandedly guaranteed that Commies will have the next election as well.
I am mad as hell.
Fucking, fucking Old Fuck.
Although TomCoyner’s views on Lee HC’s decision is probably shared by many, I strongly disagree. I was also very concerned when I read reports in the last few days that Lee HC was considering the contest again, but I now think I understand why he decided to do what he did. Lee HC is a sensible man and one of few men in Korean politics who could be considered as men of integrity. He is not a greedy pig, such as DJ.
I think he decided to throw his hat in the ring only at the last minute, not so much because he really wants the top job, but because he was seriously concerned that the country might fall into the radical lefties’ hands again, in case the government would try to kill off the chances of Lee MB with the excuse of BBK, as the previous government or somebody acting on its behalf did with the false allegation against HC five years ago.
I think, if the government wouldn’t make a big fuss with BBK, and thus MB’s win is assured, HC would likely to withdraw at the last minute.
Didn’t Lee lose the last election in large part because one of his sons did not service in the military? Wouldn’t that still be an issue this time around?
Although I don’t know the details of it well, I think the allegation was that his son cheated the system because of his father, but it has been found groundless later in court.
“If Korea worked the way the United States does, a stand by Park Geun-hye on the principle that the party primary is a done deal and “conservative forces” should unite behind the party’s candidate would cement her stature as leader and make her odds-on favorite for the 2012 election.”
If the United States worked that way, wouldn’t McCain be the frontrunner?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M.....ential_Bid
#7 “Didn’t Lee lose the last election in large part because one of his sons did not service in the military? Wouldn’t that still be an issue this time around?”
That turned out to be a lie and the guy who brought those charges up did jail time and paid a fine for libel: http://www.minjukorea.com/cgi-.....umber=2143
BTW, memories of the Kim Dae-eop affair is one reason why most LMB supporters are still with him despite the BBK accusations.
#9 “If the United States worked that way, wouldn’t McCain be the frontrunner?”
No, he won’t. McCain lost in 2000. That certainly doesn’t give him any special claim to the 2008 nomination. LMB is the GNP nomineed, selected in a more or less open process.
Actually, I would like to know the logic behind that statement.
Andy Jackson in #10:
I was commenting on Brendon Carr’s statement in #4:
Like Brendon Carr described, it seems McCain “stood behind winner George Bush on the principle that the party primary is a done deal and [the GOP] should unite behind the party’s candidate.”
But this did not really “cement his stature as leader and make him the odds-on favorite for the following open election.” So my question was does the United States really work this way.
I want Hines Ward to run for and win the presidency. According to the newspapers he is Korean after all. Choi Hong-man would be my second choice if I had to make one.
McCain is really a special case. He’s volatile and prone to outbursts. His campaign is poorly run and has squandered his positioning. And he’s already 71, on the edge of being too old to be President.
#11 OK, I see where you are coming from now.
McCain probably would have been the early front runner had it not been for 9-11 raising Giuliani’s status. I have seen a couple of recent polls that have him passing Thompson to get back into second place.
Mr. Jackson, just because a court said Kim Dae Up lied and served time doesn’t mean Lee Hoi Chang’s sons did not do wrong.
None of them went to goon dae.
Both of them claimed a BMI of less than 17.
Both of them managed to pull off prestigious degrees and reproduce successfully biologically with that frame.
he’s a fucker and so are his sons. His father, who is deceased is a known Japanese collaborator.
I don’t have much of a right to condemn him, either. I highly suspect mine were also collaborators, and 3/5 of my father’s side went to goon dae. 0/3 of my mother’s side went to goon dae. In all cases, money was involved.
hidden secret in South Korea. Well to do, do not go to goon dae.
My father was called an idiot for having chosen to serve in goon dae when he clearly had the opportunity not to.
and his (Lee Hoi Chang’s) sons are short. They’re not atheletic
judging by a photo, they were less than 5′4”.
What does height have to do with athleticism?