What the US Experts will Find in Yongbyon

Jon B. Wolfstahl, a Senior Fellow in the Center for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS), has written a piece on the supposed state of the Yongbyon nuke facility. 

Few Americans have been to the remote and heavily guarded complex. I was one of a group of Department of Energy employees that served as on-site monitors at Yongbyon. And far from the advanced complex depicted in so many James Bond thrillers, what we found were are a collection of crumbling cement structures with inadequate heat and power. The water and electricity work only sporadically. There are no lasers or modern computer complexes with flashing lights; the site is frozen in the 1950s and more closely resembles a junk yard than an evil regime’s nuclear nerve center.

Built in the 1980s, the plant is capable of producing up to one bomb’s worth of plutonium every year. The U.S. team will find antiquated computer control equipment scavenged from the international market and cobbled together from so many spare parts. Rusting parts and broken windows dominate the outside view. While safe to visit for short periods, the levels of radiation on the site would force its closure in any state in America. U.S. experts will have to wear nuclear detection equipment, known as dosimeters, at all times for their safety.

The U.S. teams also have to de-activate the fuel reprocessing center where North Korea extracted plutonium from spent nuclear fuel for its nuclear weapons, as well as the fresh fuel production site. The condition of the reprocessing facility is not well known. However, reprocessing spent fuel is among the most radioactive activities there is and levels of radiation are likely to be very high. Only short periods of exposure will be permitted by the U.S. or Korean health physicists tasked with ensuring the health of those working in radioactive environments.

OK, is it me or does anyone else get the feeling that the North Koreans may have pulled off a scam?

20 Comments

  1. Posted November 1, 2007 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    As much of a Rube Goldberg operation as it may be, the fact that it is capable of generating the material necessary for the fabrication of one nuclear device a year and that the NORKS apparently have in face been able to make bombs menas it’s no scam.

  2. Paul H. your flag
    Posted November 1, 2007 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    The Wed 31 Oct (US time) US edition WSJ editorial page has an article by John Bolton, decrying his perception of an imminent Bush administration/US State Department “meltdown” in ongoing negotiations with North Korea.

    It’s not on the open access WSJ site at opinionjournal.com, though sometimes these mid-week editorial page articles willl appear there over the following weekend.

    If it does, you-all may find it worthy of a separate post. However, in making his points ref ongoing US negotiations vs a vs North Korea, Bolton clearly implies that whatever was at Yongbyon may be long gone by now (perhaps even moved offshore!) and that any proffered inspection/”closure” of Yongbyon may be simply one more negotiating “scam” by the North.

    Herewith a couple of quotes (I’ve got the hard copy in front of me):

    1) (Opening paragraph): “Facts about Israel’s Sept 6 raid on a suspected nuclear facility in Syria continue to emerge–albeit still incompletely, especially regarding involvment of the [DPRK]. Important questions remain, such as whether its personnel were present when the attack occurred, and whether they had been working to clone the Yongbyon nuclear facility in the Syrian desert since the NorK commitment in February (the latest in a long series) to give up its nuclear programs.

    Seemingly unperturbed, however, the Bush administration apparently believes North Korea is serious this time, unlike all the others….”

    2) (later in the article): “…before it is too late, Pres Bush has to draw a deep line in the sand on verification. The State Department has yet to say anything publicly about how verification is to be accomplished, especially on the North’s uranium enrichment efforts, giving rise to the suspicion that our negotiators don’t really have a clue what they mean. The idea of North Korea for years engaged in cloning Yongbyon in Syria (or anywhere else — Burma, for instance) should be a fire bell in the night….”

  3. Posted November 2, 2007 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    Quite possible…

    I remember like 10 years ago when North Korea was digging a great big giant hole and looked like perhaps an underground nuclear testing site from spy satillite photos. The U.S. paid the North Koreans like $2M I believe to take a look at this “hole” and found out… that it was just a big hole and nothing more…

    What a great deal! The Americans pay us $2M so they can look at this great big giant hole we dug up…. :P

  4. Posted November 2, 2007 at 12:58 am | Permalink

    # 2,

    You have to take what John Bolton writes with a grain of salt. He’s a neocon hack.

    WHY a thoughtful, reputable publication like the WSJ would give this anti-diplomat a plateform is beyond me…

  5. Goku your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 3:12 am | Permalink

    “You have to take what John Bolton writes with a grain of salt. He’s a neocon hack.”

    I’m no fan of Bolton and some of his past comments have been utterly wacky. But his disdain for this deal with NK has been consistent from day one (as far as I know), and he seems to be one of the few who’s willing to voice it. I for one agree with him on this.

  6. Paul H. your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 4:46 am | Permalink

    Yes, Bolton’s scalp is one of the few trophies Congressional Democrats have been able to hang on their lodgepole, so I expected that there would be at least one derivative celebratory war dance executed here “on cue” — once I mentioned his name.

    As a result, even those who agree with him feel an obligation to glance around furtively when he comes to the front door, and then brusquely direct him to the servants’ entrance in the rear for his handout sandwich. If only they’d scraped off that obnoxious mustache along with his scalp!

    You’re nevertheless quite right about his consistency. Here’s another quote from his article:

    “…Fourth, and most importantly, the right response to the NorK threat is to apply pressure steadily and consistently, rather than hastily releasing it. AFter its nuclear test, Pyongyang faced growing pressure from the cumulative effect of Chinese anger, UN Security Council sanctions, ongoing implementation of the Proliferations Security Initiative (PSI), and the US Treasury’s continuing financial squeeze.

    There was a plan, of sorts, and it was producing some evidence of success. Instead of squeezing harder, such as by encouraging refugee flows out of the North, the administration did a U-turn. It let a desperate North Korea up off the mat, provided tangible economic support for this appallingly authoritarian regime, allwed KJI to relegitimize himself, and undercut the PSI worldwide…”

    Yes, I know — the real “appalling authoritarian” is Bolton. Thanks for the warning; you’re right, what the NorK’s really need from the US is more sympathy and understanding like what’s being extended from their long-lost fraternal brothers in the South — not more “mean-spirited” neocon harshness.

  7. globalvillageidiot your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 6:16 am | Permalink

    North Korea may be rotten and dishonest, but it doesn’t mean the neocon approach to the country was/has been correct. A combined carrot and stick approach may be the best or even only realistic option on the table right now.

    As for Bolton, I cannot think of another American diplomat - and, I hesitate use the word “diplomat” at all when referring to him - who has contributed more negatively to the image of the United States in recent history. He managed to alienate friend and foe alike at a crucial point in time. And for what?

  8. Paul H. your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    For what? Why, for refusing to view the North through rose-colored glasses, and for refusing to go along with the modern belief that “image” is reality.

  9. globalvillageidiot your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    “For what? Why, for refusing to view the North through rose-colored glasses, and for refusing to go along with the modern belief that “image” is reality.”

    But, assuming that all perspectives other than Bolton’s involve looking at the North Koreans “through rose-colored glasses”, is the United States in a better place now for all of Bolton’s abrasive “diplomacy?” What has been accomplished as a result of Bolton’s work. What opportunities may have been lost?

    I have a lot of respect for some of the foreign policy guys in the Reagan and Bush Sr. admins because I think they had a better sense of when to talk - and sometime act - tough and when to take a more subtle approach. Image should not be reality, but the former is just as important when it comes to motivating enemies to hate you and, unfortunately, causing friends and allies to lose faith in you.

  10. Posted November 2, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    I agree w/#9.

    The problem with Bolton is that his idea of “foreign policy” is to be a grand ass dick to everyone who disagrees with him. As a nation, do we really need foreign policy professionals with that kind of one dimensional mindset?

    And I’m not just talking about North Korea either…

    We just HAD to get our way with Iraq… and look where it got us?

  11. snow your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    Sheesh, Bolton points out that we’re being conned and everybody hates him for it. Exactly what have we gained over the last 15 years from diplomacy and the Sunshine Policy (or from Bush’s previous hawkishness for that matter), other than a handful of family reunions? I’m not saying that diplomacy isn’t the way to go, but so far, success has not been a word I would associate with our dealings with NK, no matter what plan of action has been tried (though it seemed that the financial sanctions may have been having some effect). Bush seems ready to buy into yet another con by the fat dwarf. We’ve been suckered 101 times before. How is the latest situation any different?

    I expect the Norks to renege on the latest deals while Bush and allies ignore it and continue to send cash his way. At this point, I’d say KJI is set for life. Everybody wants to do deals with him, because nothing else has seemed to work. It’s as if we’ve got to the point of throwing up our hands and decided to just give him whatever he wants just to get him to be quiet and out of our hair. Thus, KJI is in a great position. Since he has outmaneuvered everyone yet again, he will now find himself in a total win-win situation. He can sign and renege on any deal, yet the money will keep flowing. At this point, it seems that no one is going to call him on anything, as long as he doesn’t make his reneging too blatant to ignore. Since he’s tamed the foreigners, the only thing he will have to worry about are internal threats. But with his improved cash flow, he should be able to ramp up his internal security machine to eliminate dangers. The way I see it, he is in perhaps the best position he’s ever been since becoming leader of NK.

    We have to face the fact that we have lost this one. KJI has smoked us completely. What a master con artist. Unfortunately, at this point, I think the North Korean people are completely screwed.

  12. globalvillageidiot your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    “Sheesh, Bolton points out that we’re being conned and everybody hates him for it.”

    I don’t hate Bolton for what he thinks. (I don’t agree with him on much, but I don’t automatically discount what he has to say.) What I don’t like about him is the unconstructive manner - confrontational, insulting, belittling, ill-timed, etc - in which he seems to insist on expressing himself. (Especially, when he held positions where he was speaking on behalf of the United States government.) Denigrating one’s enemies is not always helpful, and needlessly alientating one’s allies while trying to ask for their support in waging two wars is downright stupid.

    North Korea is probably conning us again to some extent, I agree. What the Bush admin. is doing now - not unlike the Clinton admin. before it - is trying to deal with a problem with no easy solutions. The United States is holding a pretty weak hand, and outside of doing something that might threaten a war on the Korean peninsula - something that none of the other players involved, friendly or not, want to see happen - they are stuck with having to make the most of a bad situation.

  13. Paul H. your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    “…What I don’t like about [Bolton] is the unconstructive manner - confrontational, insulting, belittling, ill-timed, etc - in which he seems to insist on expressing himself….”

    I wonder if you are capable of stepping outside yourself and taking an objective look at what you’ve said. “Unconstructive” as compared to what? Would you go so far as to say it is North Korea who is “unconstructive”, or is that an awful truth that must not be pronounced — lest they take offense and rattle their nukes some more?

    Would you say that it’s important to be fearless when speaking “truth to power”? But wait, “the US is holding a pretty weak hand….”

    Huh? Then what are we still doing there? The whole point of our presence is the ability to wreak horrific destructive power on the North. If that uncomfortable reality is what makes us “weak” — because all the other parties agree it is “unthinkable” — then the US needs to withdraw.

    And let the ROK be the ones to decide the right combination of “carrot and stick” to use in dealing with their long-lost fraternal brothers of the DPRK. With what, more than twice the population and over 30 times the national ealth of the DPRK, the ROK should be — by now — more than adequate to the task.

    And it should be a relief for them to do so. After all, they won’t then be subject to the vagaries of “mad-dog Boltonism”.

  14. globalvillageidiot your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    “I wonder if you are capable of stepping outside yourself and taking an objective look at what you’ve said.”

    That could be a question for anybody who posts here.

    ““Unconstructive” as compared to what? Would you go so far as to say it is North Korea who is “unconstructive”, or is that an awful truth that must not be pronounced — lest they take offense and rattle their nukes some more?”

    Of course North Korea’s behavior is not constructive and is unacceptable by any normal person’s standards. They are, as they should be, almost universally regarded as an international basket case. It doesn’t mean that Bolton’s approach to dealing with these countries is correct.

    I have immature and confrontational students in my classes from time to time. Sometimes you have to deal with it harshly, but other times it is probably best to take a deep breath, try to relax, avoid saying something you might regret, and try to come up with a more constructive solution. It isn’t a matter of doing it 100% one way or the other. It is about trying to achieve the right balance. It is this that I feel Bolton wasn’t terribly good at. (The ROK should also be tweaking the sunshine policy, to put it mildly, because I think they have taken it too far in the other direction.)

    “Huh? Then what are we still doing there?”

    Good question. Guess both the South Koreans and Americans believe it is in their interest for that situation to continue. I’ve never claimed that the United States has sought to be in a weak or unenviable position, nor that it pleases me to see it. (It doesn’t.) Being bogged down in two wars, having all the parties involved - including allies like Japan and South Korea - unwilling to have a war started in their backyard, and not having a whole lot of international credibility these days are a few things that aren’t conducive to having a lot of options on the Korean peninsula.

  15. Posted November 2, 2007 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    What a great deal! The Americans pay us $2M so they can look at this great big giant hole we dug up…. :P

    “Us”, eh, Wankon?

  16. snow your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    The current approach seems to be based on this argument:
    -Clinton’s diplomacy didn’t work.
    -Bush’s earlier hawkishness didn’t work (except for the financial sanctions, but these could have lead to a potentially explosive situation).
    :Therefore, we are going to give KJI the benefit of all doubts and give him whatever he wants.

    Because of this, I say we sign a peace deal with the piece of crap so he has fewer excuses to blame the US for continuing to develop nukes, pull the ground troops out (at least reduce drastically and leave the air force here), and tell South Korea that it’s now up to them to coddle the Norks and to foot the bills (they don’t want to pay for the upkeep of the US military presence anyway). The US should announce that it is giving control of the situation over to South Korea and then cut off all benefits to the Norks. In essence, wash our hands of the place while keeping a close eye on the Norks for possible shipments of nuke materials elsewhere. If LMB gets in, the US could be flexible on this, but if a leftist gets in, then I think the Yankees should hit the road.

  17. sumo294 your flag
    Posted November 2, 2007 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

    WangKon936, are you still commenting? You are one willful pancake eating canuck–that is for crap sure, baby.

  18. Posted November 3, 2007 at 12:42 am | Permalink

    # 15,

    FYI, I was kinda speaking from a North Korean’s perspective for more comic effect.

    # 17,

    Not a pancake eating canuck. Kimchi and burger eating Korean American. Now for the biggest shock. I’m a registered Republican.

  19. emiminja your flag
    Posted November 3, 2007 at 3:38 am | Permalink

    what? no home depot?

    there’s gotta be a lowe’s somewhere.

  20. sumo294 your flag
    Posted November 3, 2007 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    I am shocked you mean like Olympia Snow Republican or like a Cali Republican?

2 Trackbacks

  1. [...] for Strategic and International Studies (Hat tip to the Marmot) Jon B. Wolfsthal [...]

  2. By DPRK Forum » A must read at Marmot’s on November 3, 2007 at 6:36 am

    [...] tip: Marmot’s Hole There is a must read article at CSIS regarding the reactor at Yongbyong. Very, very interesting [...]

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