I plan to post weekly presidential election poll from Realmeter results until they get banned (which I think will be two weeks before election day).
I can’t say that Realmeter is any more accurate than the other polling outfits out there but, by using the same poll every week, we can more reliably see trends.
Anyway, here are this week’s top five (with changes from the last poll in parenthesis):
- 50.1 (-0.2) Lee Myung-bak
- 17.9 (+0.7) Chung Dong-young
- 12.0 (+0.2) Moon Kook-hyun
- 3.1 (+0.2) Kwon Young-ghil
- 3.0 (-4.6) Rhee In-jae
Rhee In-jae’s drop was from a sudden rise in the poll he got last week. When you get below 10%, the number of respondents is so low that you sometimes get wild fluctuations based on just a few dozen replies.
Lee is ahead in every age group. Chung is second among people over 40 while Moon is second among those in their 20s and 30s. As you would expect, Moon is polling strong among independents. That means there is no guarantee that most of his supporters would drift to Chung if he drops out of the race.
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12 Comments
I’m deeply disappointed that Chung is so popular. But I seriously doubt he’ll become president.
A weekly poll is a good idea. If that Marxist piece of fecal debris wins, I’ll emigrate. (Not quite the news that A. Baldwin generated, but what’s a schmo to do?)
Ddong-young Chung. I’m sorry but if your name rhymes in English, you’re not qualified to become president. It’s as simple as all of that. 2500 years (반반만연) of Occidental jurisprudence can not be wrong!
PS: Inconsistent romanization is also a floggable offense.
Andy, the 2007 Korea presidential election wikipedia article needs work. Surely you must the one chosen by God/ Allah/ Yahweh/ Buddha/ Zeus/ overwhelming consensus vote of secular humanist Marmot commenters to accomplish this task.
Joking aside, you could probably bring it up to speed with a little work and then keep it updated as often as needed with just a few moments additional work. Also, I suspect you are more than capable of setting aside your own preferences and putting on an objective encyclopedia writer’s hat quite readily.
IMHO you’d be doing a service to non-Korean non-resident non-ROK-poltical-savvy readers, ones like me who are interested enough to try to follow some of the details from afar but need a baseline reference that they can refer to readily to remind them of who’s who — and what they stand for, since I gather that party coalitions in ROK democratic politics are constantly dissolving and then reforming for individual political situations/elections.
Just a suggestion for you to consider. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.....tion,_2007
I hope Chung’s popularity has peaked. The N/S summit already feels like old news. I’m reasonably confident that Koreans will vote for a change in direction - specifically, someone not even remotely connected to the present administration - this time around. There may be a few surprises over the next couple of months, but Lee Myung-bak should end up winning. He doesn’t impress me a whole lot, but at least he might actually wind up being a competent leader.
Anyone know what the percentage of undecided voters is?
Lee’s a lock
#6: This week’s poll says that 11.8% are undecided.
As a general rule, undecideds break mostly for the frontrunner. So if the election were held today, Lee would likely get around 57%, which is pretty big win in most developed democratic systems.
#7: I’m not prepared to call Lee a lock until the left’s unification negotiations and the BBK case play themselves out.
I’m all for Lee. I just don’t like his beady eyes. They’re evil looking.
I told from two years ago that Lee will be the next president of Korea and he will turn the country around.
Lee will do that. Korea will be the most pro-American country in the world.
“I told from two years ago that Lee will be the next president of Korea and he will turn the country around.
Lee will do that. Korea will be the most pro-American country in the world.”
He might manage to turn around Korea’s economy and improve the country’s strained relations with the United States, but Korea is unlikely to be the most pro-American country in northeast Asia, let alone the rest of the world world.
We need a KU president. Lee gets elected, I get a window. Life is good.