An article in Flight International describes S. Korea’s effort to develop a 5th generation fighter, the KFX. A bit of a background. Former Pres. Kim Dae Jung during a speech during a graduation ceremony of the ROK Air Force Academy declared that Korea will design and build a fighter to replace its F-16s. Soon, fancy pics(below) of the proposed fighter started appearing at the major media outlets.
Now, the Agency for Defense Development(ADD, Korea’s DARPA) is in the midst of a feasibility study to determine whether or not to go ahead with the project. It is also looking over proposals from major aerospace manufacturers for provision of technical assistance.
South Korea is studying proposals from Western manufacturers for its KFX fighter programme, with the details of a feasibility study into an indigenously designed and produced fifth-generation aircraft likely to be released around the end of 2007.
Presentations to the Agency for Defence Development from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, the Eurofighter consortium, Dassault and Saab focused on possible technology transfer and the potential market for the aircraft. The agency oversees the KFX, Korea Aerospace Industries, which has licence-produced the Lockheed Martin F-16 and jointly developed the T-50 advanced jet trainer with Lockheed, will be the main contractor and work with any Western partner.
What are the technologies that the Koreans want to get from the Western aerosapace companies?
Seoul is keen in finding out about technology such as avionics, fly-by-wire systems, flight computers, and stealth capabilities from the companies.
The other technologies, Korea will probably receive them, albeit with restrictions. But as for stealth technologies, I doubt Korea will be able to receive them considering the sensitive nature of the technology involved.
However it seems that at least Lockheed Martin is willing to participate in the project.
” The Western manufacturers, however, are ready to lend their expertise.
“Lockheed is very keen in helping South Korea in the KFX programme. We have helped Japan develop its F-2 fighters and Taiwan its Indigenous Defence Fighter in the past, and that shows that we have more experience in such programmes than the other companies,” says Kim Yong-Ho, Lockheed’s senior vice-president in charge of South Korea.
The project does face some hurdles though;
The programme, however, faces two major hurdles that could scuttle its development, say industry sources. The first is a likely 20-year gestation period, during which similar aircraft such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter are likely to become available. The second is a price tag of several billion dollars in the pre-production stage itself, which may make the economics of the aircraft untenable.
And it seems that the fighter itself isn’t defined.
There is still much uncertainty over the programme, with one Seoul-based source saying: “Even the Koreans themselves are not sure what they want. The KFX is still not well defined.”
All in all, the project can be summed up in this one quote;
“Why spend billions when the F-35 will already be in the market by the time you are done? Even export sales are unlikely, going by Japan’s experience with the F-2 and Taiwan with the IDF,” says one industry source. “If South Korea goes ahead, it is more due to national pride than anything else. Based on the cost and the amount of time it would take to come up with an aircraft, the KFX simply does not make sense.”
Personally, I don’t think there is a need for developing the KFX considering that Korea can procure the F-35, which in many aspects is a similar fighter to the proposed KFX, sometime during the next decade. Procuring the F-35 will also be faster and cheaper than developing a stealth 5th gen. fighter pretty much from scratch.
This seems to be an another case of national pride blocking sensible decision making, which if executed will result in a costly boondoggle.
24 Comments
mins, long time no complaint!
i always love the way you put the “personally, I..” right before your opinion. It helps us identify your opinion more quickly.
personally, i would tend to agree with you about the cost factor, even though you haven’t really listed those here. another consideration that you have short-shrifted, though, is the spin-off argument. there are plenty of examples of boondoggles in Korea. the incheon international airport is quickly becoming one, especially if they really do build that second terminal. certainly the AREX is one for the moment, although traffic on it might make it pay off someday.
in the case of the fighter program, i’m not so quickly convinced. the calculation may be that the economic and technological spinoffs of government sponsorship of such a program (i.e. a order to purchase X number of planes) may be great enough to outweigh the higher cost as compared to purchasing the foreign-designed/produced planes.
there are lots of variables that the government would have to control to pull off a net-benefit for the economy from such a program, and that in and of itself makes me agree with you. but knowing a bit about the aerospace industry here, i know they’re definitely thinking about spinoffs and, there is always (here and elsewhere) a general assumption that you cannot build an aerospace industry without public investment.
mjw, you’re entitled to your opinion.
And when does questioning the viability of a questionable program become a “complaint?” You’re also “short-shrifted” in that you haven’t detailed the “spinoffs” that the program will entail. You also haven’t given any figures either.
Now a F-35 buy of let’s say 60 planes will cost the ROKAF about US$6 billion. The KFX, estimates are US $12 billion for the production of 120 examples plus an estimated US$6 billion for development costs alone. Anyone with a simple knowledge of arithmetic will figure out which one is the better choice.
wow… maybe you didn’t read the part where i said i agree with you. once again, i ask you to relax.
the spinoffs are vague and i haven’t seen any studies, although i would guess they do exist. all i was really trying to say is that you looked at it from only one angle, the cost-benefit. and in korea, i think they’re looking at other things beyond that.
oh, and the comment about the complaint was just a little dig that i hadn’t taken you to task for anything recently. the meaning, of course, is that i agreed with and enjoyed your posts.
not everything is an attack….
MJW,
Capital letters, please. This is a public forum read by none other than Ban Ki Moon. Shape up or ship out!
WHITEY.. OK!
Methinks someone has a chip on their shoulder. Understandable due to previous threads maybe, but that’s an occupational hazard of blogging in a big forum like this.
mjw’s wording might have been poor, but I read it to mean that he hadn’t had any complaints with your posts for a while. You need to chill a bit and stop being too defensive.
“might” being the key word.^^
(no umbrage taken, i wrote in haste while at work)
#7.
I’m not being defensive here nor do I have a chip on the shoulder. Although I do admit that mjw’s patronizing is irritating.
Of course if mjw wants to prove otherwise, he is more than welcome to.
In this day and age it makes no sense to go it alone on a top-of-the-line fighter aircraft. Japan paid a lot of money for a souped-up F-16, which is what the F-2 is, and they aren’t even allowed by law to export it. And the spinoff argument doesn’t work. Did the F-5 or the KF-16 or even the T-50 result in a Korean airframer or major suppliers having the standalone capability to build a fighter, as advertised to the taxpaying public? Hell no.
Now, if they really were smart, they’d shoot for a highly capable UCAV that would bypass countries stuck in pilot-only mode, such as the U.S. A UCAV would have a chance of finding a global niche.
Gee, I don’t know. I guess it all depends whether they can find buyers for the KFX and the new technology they will develop.
I think mins assertions about how much an independently developed Korean fighter costing a prohibitive amount of money makes tons of sense.
Let’s face it. Any nation with basic homegrown aerospace technology find it tremendously difficult to build something as sophisticated as a F-35, right?
Well let’s look 20 years into the future. China is gonna get more powerful, right? As it gets more powerful, it’s going to throw its weight around and use its military capabilities as leverage in its relations with Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. the same way Russia does in Eastern Europe and the U.S. does indirectly in the Western Hemisphere. However, China will only be more aggressive in this regards because China, since time immortal, as always considered itself the master of East Asia. Let’s face it, as the world order continues to evolve, Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan will have increasingly inconsistent access to Western aerospace technology. Thus, what are these economically signficant, but essentially medium sized nations to do? One answer is to try and grow and expand their own defense and aerospace technologies. I love what Korea did with their xK2. Develop a world class main battle tank that can counter any foreseeable parallel threat and have the Turks pay for the R&D. Brilliant!
The Japanese and Taiwanese paid a VERY heavy price for their homegrown fighter programs. The Japanese getting a souped up version of the F-16 and the Taiwanese a stripped down version of the F-16. What’s the ultimate unit price for their F-2? $100 million plus? Crazy. Korea’s desire to self develop a sort of baby F-22 is equally futile.
I think the ultimate answer for East Asian nations who don’t want to be dominated and bullied by China is to pool their resources and develop their own EADS type of defense company. Ideal solution yes, but who knows if these nations will be forced to do so as the Eastern Pacific increasingly becomes a Chinese lake?
IMO, S. Korea seems to be going in the right direction with their military in general. The only *cough* country *cough* that really needs to worry about actually using their military is Taiwan, and no matter how advanced they get it, it ain’t gonna help an invading China. China, Japan and S. Korea have too much to lose by ever fighting each other so that’s way out of the thought of possibility.
The hawks in S. Korea know this, they know there really isn’t much of a point in buying these fighters jets when not only are they getting 2nd best gear, but that the value on these depreciates quicker than taking a dump on Superman issue #1. Yet having new ones make them feel tough and safe, like a brand spanking new shiny sword on a samurai, useful for maybe knocking a few peasants’ heads to grab their daughter but not intended for full out war.
So why bother at all? Well, if they learn to build it at home, not only do they fuel an industry for more workers, but it’ll be another good way to push their many top physicists into researching cooler things instead of new features on mp3 players/phones or having them wonder why they didn’t become a plastic surgeon while they play baduk in parks for money.
It also eases paranoid fears that one day, some country will be able to use their far advanced tech into manufacturing some flying-transforming-robot-indestructible plane Gundam thingy that can blow up a country on it’s own while defending against hundreds of missiles…while most assuredly not sharing with the Koreans. So, just in case…they want to be sure they can compete with such a thing if it comes, or at least dream that they’ll one day be the ones building said fighter.
“Yet having new ones make them feel tough and safe, like a brand spanking new shiny sword on a samurai, useful for maybe knocking a few peasants’ heads to grab their daughter but not intended for full out war.”
I’d have to disagree. Although Stalin said that quantity has a quality all it’s own, in this modern day and age technological sophistication is a force multiplier that can trump quantity. This was NATO’s philosophy during the cold war which is why they still thought they had a fighting chance when outnumbered in main battle tanks five to one (although we’d find out later that the top of the line Soviet tank of that era, the T-72, was utter crap that had a nasty habit popping its turret 50 feet in the air when hit by NATO 120mm and 105mm rod penetrators).
Speaking of robots…
http://smart-machines.blogspot.....entry.html
“Ideal solution yes, but who knows if these nations will be forced to do so as the Eastern Pacific increasingly becomes a Chinese lake?”
WangKon,
I don’t mean to sound precocious, but you’re certainly talking about the Western Pacific here. A mistake which is only too easy to make…
“Now a F-35 buy of let’s say 60 planes will cost the ROKAF about US$6 billion. The KFX, estimates are US $12 billion for the production of 120 examples plus an estimated US$6 billion for development costs alone. Anyone with a simple knowledge of arithmetic will figure out which one is the better choice.”
Agreed. The F-35 purchase figure is unlikely to fluctuate too much, but you can probably count on the budget for a KFX program going far higher than the initial estimate of $18 billion. That estimate is likely low to begin with.
#12: “I think the ultimate answer for East Asian nations who don’t want to be dominated and bullied by China is to pool their resources and develop their own EADS type of defense company.”
That actually made me laugh. That would make sense, but getting these people to agree on workshare, final assembly, investment amount (”you Japanese owe us!”), etc. would be beyond the level of God’s ability. Even the Koreans couldn’t agree with the Chinese on a 100-passenger aircraft back in the 90s.
The T-72 series have a misunderstood reputation. The T-72’s entered service in 1971 even though a more advanced tank, the T-64 had already been in production for several years. The T-72 was meant to be cheaper and exported to all of the Soviet satellite states. When it entered service, it wasn’t facing off against the M1, Leopard 2, or Challenger but rather the M48, M-60, Chieftains, and Centurions.
# 16,
Yep, my mistake. I get my left and my right confused sometimes too….
# 18,
Yeah, it is impossible. I didn’t say it was the most likely solution, just the most optimal solution. The most likely is that each of these countries will continue to toil away inefficently and not share any of their technology for the foreseeable future.
# 19,
Yes, the T-64 is more advanced then the T-72. However, if I’m not mistaken, I believe that in the mid 80’s, category A divisions in East Germany still had more T-72s then T-64s.
I think the Koreans should go ahead and do it. They need all the plane-building experience they can get if they want to maximize their chances for survival in the ever-shifting geopolitical climate. Teach a man to fish….
well… domestic development will be good for porky politicians. They will undoubtedly use the nationalist card to promote their agenda. US weapons producers will no doubt dangle some attractive technology transfer carrots and some US politicians will be object and thereby make a very powerful marketing poly.
In the case of guns versus gochujang, I guess my “korean blood” almost always scream for more gochujang. It’s just too much of a risk to spend all that money on a weapons system which is probably not all that useful on political basis and even feasibly useless as it could be strategically/tactically obsolete.
even if Korea decides to “go-it-alone” it will be “good” for the world arms industry. In my opinion, they really need to stop shelling cash on more guns. Korea will never be able to “go-it-alone” and achieve true Juche-utopian bliss. Korea needs to save up for the inevitable collapse of DPRK. It needs to bend when needed to achieve international goodwill for that eventuality. That’s my two phone calls on a korean public phone booth.
oh well… i guess think of it this way…
billions of dollars spent to pay someone over seas…. or billions of dollars of your taxpayers money going back into your country…
your choice
oh well… i guess think of it this way…
billions of dollars spent to pay someone over seas…. or billions of dollars of your taxpayers money going back into your country…
your choice
You can not get offset from your own country. onedumbfuck
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