Just some observations from the day:
- The two Koreas will be making a “Peace and Prosperity Declaration for the Development of Intra-Korean Relations” at 1:00pm. Be there or be square. Yonhap News, citing a high-ranking South Korean official, said the declaration will include new and specific economic cooperation projects, with analysts believing the declaration will include either the construction of a second industrial park similar to the one in Kaesong (Haeju and Nampo are being bandied about as possible host cities) or renovation of North Korea’s outdated social overhead capital. Of course, we’ll just have to see.
- As mentioned yesterday, President Roh attended an edited version of the Arirang performance last night. Kim Jong-il did not attend, nor did he attend the dinner that followed. Roh did receive a pretty rousing round of applause from the packed stadium. The Hankyoreh has some video footage:
- OK, the declaration has been signed. It’s an eight-point document, the translation of which will be up shortly, no doubt. If you read Korean, here’s the Korean original. The point that will raise the most eyebrows, most likely, is the agreement to work together to push a “three or four-party summit,” to meet “in the region of the Korean Peninsula,” that would declare the Korean War officially over and create a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. As one of those “three or four parties” is most definitely the United States, I hope Roh discussed this with Washington first. A number of intra-Korean economic projects were also listed, including an agreement to push the designation of the West Sea as a joint-fishing area, the opening of the port of Haeju to civilian shipping and joint use of the Han River estuary.
- OK, the English translation is now up. Concerning the end of the armistice regime and the building of a permanent piece regime, it reads:
The South and the North both recognize the need to end the current armistice regime and build a permanent peace regime. The South and the North have also agreed to work together to advance the matter of having the leaders of the three or four parties directly concerned to convene on the Peninsula and declare an end to the war.
And concerning intra-Korean economic cooperation, we have:
The South and the North reached an agreement on promoting economic cooperation, including investments, pushing forward with the building of infrastructure and the development of natural resources. Given the special nature of inter-Korean cooperative projects, the South and the North have agreed to grant preferential conditions and benefits to those projects.
The South and the North have agreed to create a “special peace and cooperation zone in the West Sea” encompassing Haeju and vicinity in a bid to proactively push ahead with the creation of a joint fishing zone and maritime peace zone, establishment of a special economic zone, utilization of Haeju harbor, passage of civilian vessels via direct routes in Haeju and the joint use of the Han River estuary.
The South and the North have agreed to complete the first-phase construction of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex at an early date and embark on the second-stage development project. The South and the North have agreed to open freight rail services between Munsan and Bongdong and promptly complete various institutional measures, including those related to passage, communication, and customs clearance procedures.
The South and the North have agreed to discuss repairs of the Gaeseong-Sinuiju railroad and the Gaeseong-Pyongyang expressway for their joint use.
The South and the North have agreed to establish cooperative complexes for shipbuilding in Anbyeon and Nampo, while continuing cooperative projects in various areas such as agriculture, health and medical services and environmental protection.
The South and the North have agreed to upgrade the status of the existing Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee to a Joint Committee for Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation to be headed by deputy prime minister-level officials.
Oh, and there will be direct flights to Mt. Baekdu from Seoul!
Like I said, this will be updated as news comes in.
19 Comments
If it is in fact a declaration of peace, why would they cheapen it by mentioning money?
Peace is usually the result of economic cooperation. Imagine if the countries of the world weren’t globally trading with anyone that they could, but rather hoarded their own resources and dished them out piecemeal to favored friends.
There would be a whooole lotta war goin on to steal neighbors’ resources!
There’s a lot of agreements and projects there… including Mt. Baekdu tourism, Yellow Sea Cooperative Zone, using Seoul-Uijungbu line for 2008 Olympics… there’s also mentioning of using freight trains between Munsan and Bongdong.. where are those places?
Perhaps I’m just an old school thinker. Can someone please help me out?
If KJI is the enemy, even if it’s my brother, wouldn’t I want to strangle every economic opportunity for him? The money that I save from not supporting him could be used to rebuild the north after he’s gone.
I believe another commenter on this site mentioned this.
If SK keeps supporting NK like this, will this not prolong NK’s survival? Why is the South being so short-sighted…aside from Roh being KJI’s gimp?
This declaration is almost as funny as KDJ’s one back when.
“The South and North have agreed that Korea is good and hugs are good. The South and North have agreed to smile, and smile and smile. Puppies are good too. We agree that cooperation is a nice word and so we sing ‘cooperation’ over and over, but lets not talk about the details. And the South and North also agree that ‘Peace’ is good. It is a nice, good word. Hooray for ‘Peace’. Let us consider doing a number of vague things and again, lets avoid specifics. Look at our nice blue flag of the peninsula. What amazing progress this blue flag is! The South’s money is truly well spent! Our two olypmpic teams will enter a stadium for 3 minutes walking nearby together holding the blue flag, and that is good and peace and puppies. We agree that Kimchi is good too. And air. These are truly breakthrough agreements heralding a new era of etc etc…
That is all.”
I’m also skeptical the U.S. is being considered in “three parties” in the phrase “three or four” parties. Rather, I’m pretty sure 3 means:
DPRK
ROK
China
…and 4 means:
DPRK
ROK
China
U.S.
Note that Japan is left out since neither the DPRK nor the ROK like Japan.
So, with neither side willing to comprimise on whether the U.S. is present or not, they attempt to make a nice-sounding sentence that is similar to:
“We have agreed to either unify or to continue have the ROK send truckloads of money and goods over the border while the DPRK does nothing in return.”
It is a logically correct sentence, but intentionally misleading in that the nice-sounding option will happen when hell freezes over.
It’s sort of like how “The majority of English teachers found guilty of a crime are drug-abusers, murders, and rapists, or else they were speeding” passes for Korean “journalism”.
*sigh*
Why would China definitely be included when North Korea barely acknowledges their involvement?
Right. The of the “three or four,” the two definite ones are North Korea and the United States. I’d like to think South Korea is a definite, too, but North Korea has opposed this in the past, and while I’d like to think Roh wouldn’t cut his own country out of talks, anything’s possible. The “iffy fourth” is probably China.
“Why would China definitely be included when North Korea barely acknowledges their involvement?”
Because China signed the armistice which ended fighting in ‘53.
Maybe they agreed to count North and South Korea as ONE participant. The article also noted: “The South agreed to use the words, ‘to occasionally meet,’ considering the North’s position that it can’t use the expression ‘regularly scheduled meetings’ because the inter-Korean relations are not relations between two different nations.”
Nevermind the fact that this argument doesn’t make any sense. It’s like saying you can’t regularly meet your nonexistent friend because he doesn’t exist, so instead you’ll only meet your nonexistent friend occasionally.
“If SK keeps supporting NK like this, will this not prolong NK’s survival? Why is the South being so short-sighted…aside from Roh being KJI’s gimp?”
By stressing economic co-operation, I think SK wants NK to move away from the planned economic system to embrace the market economy (free economy).
Currently, if reunification were to occur, it would be a HUGE financial and social burden on SK with the influx of immigrants, most of whom will be unskilled. Also, SK would have to build new infrastructure, educate the masses on the capitalist system, educate the masses on basic skills taken granted by the developed world, etc. etc. basically spending trillions of dollars. (Like what happened when the Berlin Wall fell- only way more)
So, by encouraging economic development through aid and economic co-operation, SK is making sure reunification becomes a smooth transition.
“So, by encouraging economic development through aid and economic co-operation, SK is making sure reunification becomes a smooth transition.”
That’s the theory, anyway. Never mind that KJI is not interested in reforming his economy, only to have a few economic zones and other projects funneling money to him directly, while the rest of the country remains sealed off and as isolated as possible. If he actually began to reform the economy, he’d be dead meat. So this summit is little more than a chance to offer billions while he promises little in return other than platitudes.
“So this summit is little more than a chance to offer billions while he promises little in return other than platitudes.”
Well, it is a chance for a better future for both Koreas. So what that it cost a few billions of dollars? In the bigger picture of things, it is worth it.
Even if KJI doesn’t reform his economy overnight, these economic agreements will still bringing in money into the hands of the poor people of NK(though, some of it will most likely goes to the government, but still better than nothing)
Aid will prolong the regime and fewer people in the short term will die than before. But is a case where 70,000 people per year over the next 40 years die because of starvation or actively hostile actions of the NK government better than a case where 100,000 people on average (highly variable) die over the next ten years and then many fewer people die thereafter (due to regime change)?
Those numbers were just tossed off the top of my head, but the point is there. Kim will not reform the economy in any meaningful way.
Aid is nice, but I am for being vigilant to make sure aid gets where it needs to go and ending the regime as soon as possible.
Why give so much for so little gain? Very, very little gets into the hands of the average North Korean (of the average $58 per month that workers at Kaesong receive, something like $50 goes to the government, and these few workers are vetted for ‘loyalty’). Why prop up thugs who can’t reform, even if they wanted to? Why not expect to receive something in return for all the giving?
Pouring billions blindly into KJI’s pockets hardly guarantees that reunification will be smooth. All these economic projects sound great, but I can’t help thinking that they will be a convenient way to funnel cash to KJI and his cronies without really helping the average North Korean out in any way (and in fact hurting them as KJI will then be able to more effectively finance the stamping out of dissent). It’s like pouring cash into a black hole and hoping that something good comes out of it. Why not expect to see real reforms to accompany all the free cash?
Am I the only person in this country (Korea) who gets the feeling this is all too good to be true? All this stuff seems to have come on so suddenly and KJI
seems to be smiling and nodding too cordially. I’m not understanding KJI’
s motivation here. It all seems a bit off. When I watched Roh and KJI walking side-by-side, I couldn’t get over the differences in social status between these two Korean men. Roh is an elected official with a permanent dorky smile who is on his way out (most likely); while KJI is very much god-like north of the border. Every word this man says in his country is unquestionable. everything he wants, he gets. These are two very different men here. I really want to get the NK media spin (the real media in NK
we can’t see)on this entire business.
Something smells fishy here . . . . . .
The problem with the “starve it dead” strategy with North Korea is that it achieves its aim at ending the North Korean regime, at which point China rolls in in an oh-so humanitarian fashion to provide emergency governance to prevent the country from descending into anarchy. It’s much easier for them to do so given their close ties and absence of a five mile mined stretch of “don’t even think of crossing me ” DMZ. At which point a stable Chinese puppet government is formed and unification is put off indefinitely.
In hind site of this, it would be better to feed a few babies in North Korea, those babies (unfortunately) not being human but metaphors for south Korean investments that will pay off by being little pockets of justification for South Korea to lay some sort of weak claim of right to help administer the country when it eventually does fail due to good old incompetence.
Re: #17
captbbq,
That’s the first cogent argument I’ve heard for funneling money into NK, assuming that South Korea can throw enough money and build enough Kaesongs to lay claim.
As such, the next Kaesong-type zone should be a 5-mile stretch of North Korea as it borders China.
Let’s hope that Lee Myung-Bak is as pragmatic as many think he will be and will pursue a strategy that gets some return on the massive amounts of ROK’s taxpayers’ money being shoveled across the border.
“Let’s hope that Lee Myung-Bak is as pragmatic as many think he will be and will pursue a strategy that gets some return on the massive amounts of ROK’s taxpayers’ money being shoveled across the border.”
Exactly what I’ve been talking about. A return on the investment. Funneling money into KJI’s pocket is unlikely to have the desired effect of promoting unification or helping North Korean people.